New Challenges, New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking · Anthrax threat, 35, 48n, 50n Anti-aircraft missiles, 108 Anti-American sentiments, 129 Antisensor operations, 121–122, see

363

INDEX

9-11, events of, 10, 128–129, 129n,286, 361–362

ABAT (Army brilliant antitank), 291,294, 296

Abell, John B., 218nAccessibility, see Information

architecture, for defenseAcoustic torpedoes, 108Acquisition and technology

(A & T), 17Acquisition Policy Panel, 27n“Acquisition Reform: A Mandate for

Change” (Perry), 25Acquisition reforms, 16, 24–27ACTDs (advanced concept

technology demonstrations), 26Active defenses, against CBW

threats, 52–53, see alsoAsymmetric threats, respondingto

Active militarycharacteristics of, 159–165, 162n,

163nlooking to the future, 169–172ongoing revolutions of,

165–168, see also Militaryworkforce, future planning for

Adaptive strategies, 250, see alsoUncertainty-sensitive strategicplanning

Adaptiveness in National Defense(Davis), 139n

Advanced concept technologydemonstrations (ACTDs), 26

Advisory boards, 17–18Aegis system, 80, 110, 121Aerospace manufacturing, 111Afghanistan, 42, 109, 170, 183, 286AFQT (Armed Forces Qualification

Test), 166, 187, 195n, 196, 197nAgent-based modeling, 274, 274n,

275Agora systems, 127Airborne Warning and Control

System (AWACS), 110, 121, 304Aircraft, 98, 104, 111, 121Air Force, U.S., 27, 113, 183, 184, 187,

192, 193, 218, 239, 241, 308, 318Air-launched munitions, 111Airport of debarkation (APOD), 291Air-to-air combat, 276Alibek, Kenneth, 35nAll-volunteer force, 31, 166,

186–187attracting quality personnel,

189–198, 190n, 194n, 195n,197n

compensation, economic theoriesof, 199–207, 200n

general human capital,200–201, 201n

initial sorting, 204–205motivation of effort, 203–204specific human capital,

202–203tournaments, 205–207, 205n,

206nversatility and leadership,

187–189, 188n, 189nAl Qaeda, 42, 129, 183

364 New Challenges, New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking

Analytical Methods for Studies andExperiments on “Transformingthe Force” (Davis), 258n

Analytic Architecture for Capabilities-Based Planning, Mission-SystemAnalysis, and Transformation(Davis), 142n, 255n

Anthrax threat, 35, 48n, 50nAnti-aircraft missiles, 108Anti-American sentiments, 129Antisensor operations,

121–122, see also Informationtechnology, for defenseplanning

APOD (airport of debarkation), 291Appliqué terminal, 85Aptitude, training, 166–168, 187Armed Forces Journal International,

36nArmed Forces Qualification Test

(AFQT), 166, 187, 195n, 196,197n

Armed Forces Vocational AptitudeBattery (ASVAB), 187, 195n

Arms control, 57–59Army brilliant antitank (ABAT), 291,

294, 296Army’s Tactical Missile System

(ATACM), 111, 291Army, U.S., 84, 113, 192, 193, 318The Art of Wargaming (Perla), 248nAsch, Beth J., 190nAspects of the Theory of Syntax

(Chomsky), 91nAspin, Les, 14, 346Assessing the Capabilities of Strategic

Nuclear Forces: The Limits ofCurrent Methods (Bennett), 36n

Assumption-Based Planning(Dewar), 135n

ASVAB (Armed Forces VocationalAptitude Battery), 187, 195n

Asymmetric threats, responding to,33–34, 33n

challenge and response cycles,45–46, 45n, 60

the Cold War to present,34–35n, 34–39, 36n, 38n

conclusions, 66examples of, 39–40planning framework for, 49–66

institutionalization throughprotection, 50–56

active defenses, 52–53attack operations, 52avoidance, 53–54passive defenses, 55–56

institutionalization throughthreat management,56–63

deterrence, 61–62, 61ndissuasion, intelligence, and

defense planning, 59–60,59n, 60n

information operations, 62–63preemption, 60–61prevention, 57–59

internationalization, 63–66cooperating to prevent and

dissuade, 66coordinating destruction,

65–66sharing protections, 65, 65nsynchronizing operations,

64–65understanding the threat, 64

potential adversaries, 40–43, 40n,42n

surprise and anonymity, potentialfor, 43–45, 43n, 44n, 45n

weapons of mass destruction(WMD), challenge of,47–49, 48n, 49n, 50n, see alsoDefense, new challenges of

A&T (acquisition and technology), 17ATACM (Army’s Tactical Missile

System), 111, 291Attack operations, against CBW

threats, 50, see also Asymmetricthreats, responding to

Augustine, Norm, 113–114

Index 365

Avoidance operations, against CBWthreats, 53–54, see alsoAsymmetric threats, respondingto

AWACS (Airborne Warning andControl System), 110, 121, 304

Axtell, Robert, 274n

Ballistic missiles, 35, 36n, 39, 40, 41,50, 52, 61n, 108, see alsoAsymmetric threats, respondingto

Bandwidth limitations, 84–85Bankes, Stephen C., 256nBank Secrecy Act, 330Basic training, 187Batten, C. L., 230nBattlefield information systems, see

Information architecture, fordefense; Informationtechnology, for defenseplanning; Military informationsystems, assessment of

BCPs, see Best commercial practices(BCPs), relevant to DoD

Becker, Gary S., 200nBeirut, 41, 42Belldina, Jeremy S., 316nBennett, Bruce W., 33, 36nBerners-Lee, Tim, 91nBerstein, Nurith, 13Best commercial practices (BCPs),

relevant to DoD, 211–213, 211n,212n

identifying BCPs, 223–246, 223nchange-related activities,

224–227DoD’s strategic goals,

233–239, 233n, 235n, 237ninsights from commercial

experience, 242–246key barriers to, 239–242, 239nstrategic sourcing, 231–233,

231n, 232n, 233nstructural differences,

227–230, 227n, 230n

specific processes of, 213–219cross-government learning,

218–219defining, 214–215examples of, 213–214expectations for, 215–217, 216nlean production, 217–218, 218n

total quality management (TQM)and, 219–223

differentiating viewpoints,222–223

key benefits of, 219–222Best Practices: Building Your Business

with Customer-FocusedSolutions (Hiebeler), 223n

Biberdorf, Curt, 51nBigelow, James H., 258n, 267nBin Laden, Osama, 43“Biological Weapons” (Alibek), 35nBiological weapons (BW), 35n, 39, 47,

48n, 49Bosnia, 115, 346Bounded rationality, 98, 98nBracken, Paul, 135nBrady, Edward, 317nBranting, Darryl L., 248n“Bridging the Gap Between Warriors

and Politicians,” 15nBriggs, Robert O., 340nBritain, 81, 123Buddin, Richard, 197nBudget preparation, 19–22Buoy-hosted sensors, 111Bush administration, 25, 31, 47, 57,

61BW (biological weapons), 35n, 39, 47,

48n, 49

CAIV (cost as an independentvariable), 26

Camm, Frank, 211Canada, 81Capabilities-based planning

choices and resource allocation of,151–155, 151n

key features of, 60, 141–144, 142n


mission-system analysis and, 144,144n

multiple objectives and measuresof, 145

scenario space strategy,146–151, see also Exploratoryanalysis and implications

Caribbean Financial Action TaskForce (CFATF), 337

Carrillo, Manuel J., 261nCastle systems, 127–128“CB Protective Field Duty Uniform”

(Biberdorf), 51nCBW (chemical and biological

weapons), 34, 38n, 45–46, 48–49,49n, 50–56, see also Asymmetricthreats, responding to

CCDs (charged-coupled devices),106

C-Day, 291CEC (cooperative engagement

capability), 358Centralized planning, 29–30CFATF (Caribbean Financial Action

Task Force), 337CFE (Conventional Forces in

Europe), 36n, 57Charged-coupled devices (CCDs),

106Chemical and biological weapons

(CBW), 34, 38n, 45–46, 48–49,49n, 50–56, see also Asymmetricthreats, responding to

Chemical weapons (CW), 39, 45n, 47,49n, 293, 296, see alsoAsymmetric threats, respondingto

Cheney, Dick, 138nChernobyl virus, 127Chief purchasing officer (CPO), 235,

240, 242China, 39, 47, 121, 328“China Looks to Foil U.S. Missile

Defense System” (Gordon), 42nChomsky, Noam, 91nChu, David S. C., 13

CIA operative, 170CICA (Competition in Contracting

Act), 241CINC (commander in chief), 16, 18,

22C4ISR Analytic Performance

Evaluation (CAPE) Model, 316,316n

C4ISR Mission Assessment (CMA),316, 316n

C4ISR system (command, control,communications, computers,intelligence, surveillance, andreconnaissance), 88, 116, 118,277

C3I system (command, control,communications, andintelligence), 301

C3IEW Measures of EffectivenessWorkshop (Pawlowski), 312n

Civilian political appointees, 16Civilians, defense, 165–166, 169, 172Civil-military operations center

(CMOC), 313Civil War, 164Classification levels, 81Clausewitz, von Carl, 133nClementine spacecraft, 110Clinton administration, 25, 26, 28CMOC (civil-military operations

center), 313Code Red Worm, 127Cohen, Eliot A., 87nCohen, I. K., 218nCohen, William S., 33n, 49nCohesion: The Human Element in

Combat (Henderson), 188nCold War, defense planning during,

10–11, 14, 25n, 27–28, 33,34–35n, 34–39, 36n, 38n, 53, 285

Collaboration technologies, 251, seealso Electronic meeting systems(EMS)

Collective protection shelters,against CBW threats, 55–56

College funds, 190, 200

Index 367

Combat communications, seeInformation architecture, fordefense

Combat modeling, see Exploratoryanalysis and implications

Combat soldier, 162, see also Militaryworkforce, future planning for

Command and control (C2) system,78, 109, 124–125, 183, see alsoMilitary information systems,assessment of

“Command and Control Simulation–A Common Thread” (Welch),301n

Command, control, andcommunications (C3) system,77

Command, control,communications, andintelligence (C3I) system, 301

Command, control,communications, computers,intelligence, surveillance, andreconnaissance (C4ISR) system,88, 116, 118, 277

Commander in chief (CINC), 16, 18,22

Commission on GovernmentProcurement (1972), 27

Common Knowledge (Dixon), 88nCommon strategies, 250Communication networks, see

Information architecture, fordefense

Compensation, economic theoriesof, 199–200, 200n


initial sorting, 204–205issues for the future, 207–209motivation of effort, 203–204specific human capital,

202–203tournaments, 205–207, 205n, 206n,

see also Military workforce,future planning for

Competition in Contracting Act(CICA), 241

Computer hacker warfare, 39, 120,126–128

Computer warfare, 120Concept of operation (CONOP), 33,

34, 39, 49, 51, 297Congress, U.S., 15, 17, 22, 23, 23n,

190, 345Congressional Record, 35nCONOP (concept of operation), 33,

34, 39, 49, 51, 297Conscription period, 163–165, 163n,

166“Considerations Bearing on the

Merits of the SALT IIAgreements as Signed atVienna” (Nitze), 35n

Constitution, U.S., 15Contamination avoidance, see

Avoidance operations, againstCBW threats

Contemporary warfare, 300Continental United States (CONUS),

328, 329Contract workforce, 169–170, 172CONUS (continental United States),

328, 329Conventional Forces in Europe

(CFE), 36n, 57Conventional warfare, 117–118, 309Cooperative engagement capability

(CEC), 358Cooperative prevention, with allies,

66Coordination of destruction,

65–66Copper, Carolyn, 189nCost as an independent variable

(CAIV), 26Cost-benefit analysis, 28–29Cost-effectiveness analysis, 154Counterterrorism, 31, 321


Coupling Logistics to Operations toMeet Uncertainty and the Threat(CLOUT): An Overview (Cohen),218

CPO (chief purchasing officer), 235,240, 242

Critical Foundations: ProtectingAmerica’s CriticalInfrastructures, 328n

Cross-government learning,218–219

Cruise missiles, 39, 108, 111Cryptographic techniques, 123C3 system (command, control, and

communications), 77C2 system (command and control),

78, 109, 124–125, 183, see alsoMilitary information systems,assessment of

CW (chemical weapons), 39, 45n, 47,49n, 293, 296, see alsoAsymmetric threats, respondingto

Cyberpayment policies,330–333, 330n, 331n, see alsoDay After methodology

Cyber soldier, 182–183, see alsoMilitary workforce, futureplanning for

DAB (Defense Acquisition Board),17, 22

DARPA (Defense Advanced ResearchProjects Agency), 27

Data collection, 78–80Data View, 262nDavenport, Thomas, 88nDavis, Paul K., 131, 142n, 149n, 153n,

255, 256n, 258n, 261n, 267nDay After methodology, 323–324

applications and developmentprocess, 326–337

comparison of, 333–335, 333ncyberpayments and money

laundering, 330–333, 330n,331n

Day After and analyticindependence, 335–337,336n

strategic information warfare(SIW), 327–330, 328n

methodology in brief, 324–326value of, 337–338

DCAA (Defense ContractAdministration Agency), 232

D-Day, 49, 133, 262, 291DD21 (Navy’s Twenty First Century

Destroyer Program), 27Debugging technology, 107Decentralization, 30Deception, 120Decision Support Department

(DSD), 342, 343, 354Decontamination operations, 54Defense, new challenges of

afterword on, 361–362asymmetric threats, responding

to, 33–34, 33nchallenge and response cycles,

45–46, 45n, 60the Cold War to present,

34–35n, 34–39, 36n, 38nconclusions, 66examples of, 39–40planning framework for,

49–66institutionalization through

protection, 50–56active defenses, 52–53attack operations, 52avoidance, 53–54passive defenses, 55–56

institutionalization throughthreat management,56–63

deterrence, 61–62, 61ndissuasion, intelligence,

and defense planning,59–60, 59n, 60n

information operations, 62–63

preemption, 60–61

Index 369

prevention, 57–59internationalization, 63–66

cooperating to prevent anddissuade, 66

coordinating destruction,65–66

sharing protections, 65, 65nsynchronizing operations,

64–65understanding the threat,

64potential adversaries, 40–43,

40n, 42nsurprise and anonymity,

potential for, 43–45, 43n,44n, 45n

weapons of mass destruction(WMD), challenge of,47–49, 48n, 49n, 50n

best commercial practices (BCPs),relevant to DoD, 211–213,211n, 212n

identifying, 223–246, 223nchange-related activities,

224–227DoD’s strategic goals,

233–239, 233n, 235n,237n

insights from commercialexperience, 242–246

key barriers to, 239–242, 239nstrategic sourcing,

231–233, 231n, 232n,233n

structural differences,227–230, 227n, 230n

specific processes of,213–219

cross-government learning,218–219

defining, 214–215examples of, 213–214expectations for, 215–217,

216nlean production, 217–218,

218n

total quality management(TQM) and, 219–223

differentiating viewpoints,222–223

key benefits of, 219–222decisionmaking for, 13

allocating resources, 19–22alternative approaches to,

27–29alternative decisionmaking

styles, 29–31division of authority, 15–19, 15ninvestment strategies, 22–27,

23n, 25n, 27nlooking to the future, 31–32military capabilities approach,

14–15information architecture, for

defense, 67–68defining, 68–78, 70n

cultural factors, 73–74, 73nDoD’s requirements, 74–78global information grid (GIG),

70–71hierarchy of, 72–73

elements of, 78–94access, 80–82, 81n, 82ncollection, 78–80integration, 93–94interoperability, 90–93, 91n,

93nknowledge maintenance and

management, 86–89, 87n,88n

networking, 84–86presentation, 82–84, 83nsecurity, 89–90

empowerment of, 94–95introduction, 2–5, 10–12, see also

Defense decisionmaking, newtools for; Defense planning,coping with uncertainty

Defense Acquisition Board (DAB),17, 22

Defense Acquisition: Major’sCommission Reports, 27n


“Defense Acquisition Reform”(Kaminski), 26n

Defense Advanced Research ProjectsAgency (DARPA), 27

Defense Authorization Act of 1997,27

Defense Contract AdministrationAgency (DCAA), 232

Defense contracting, 24–27Defense decisionmaking, new tools

forafterword on, 361–362Day After methodology,

323–324applications and development

process, 326–337comparison of, 333–335, 333ncyberpayments and money

laundering, 330–333,330n, 331n

Day After and analyticindependence,335–337, 336n

strategic information warfare(SIW),327–330, 328n

methodology in brief,324–326

value of, 337–338exploratory analysis and

implicationsenabling exploratory analysis,

265–277, 267n, 268nmultiresolution,

multiperspectivemodeling (MRMPM),270–277, 271n, 272n,274n

using Occam’s razor,269–270

exploratory analysis,147–151, 154, 256–265

advanced concepts of, 265defining, 256–258, 256n, 258nstructural uncertainties,

258–259, 258n

types of, 259–265, 259n, 262nintroduction, 255, 255nparameterized example,

282–283, 282nrecent experience, lessons from,

278–281, 278n, 279nintroduction, 248–254, 248n, 250n,

251nmilitary information systems,

assessment of, 299–300, 299nadditional factors in,

307–309, 308n, 309nadvances in, 319context for, 304–307historical perspective,

300–304, 300n, 301n, 302n,304n

NATO code of best practice(COBP), 309–318, 309n,312n, 316n, 317n

residual challenges, 320–322,320n

using electronic meeting systems(EMS), 339–340, 339n

example of, prioritizing navalprograms, 342–359

challenges of, 342–344other possible uses,

358–359overview of methodology,

344–358processes and advantages of,

340–342, 340nusing exploratory modeling, 285

fundamentals of, 290–297need for, 285–290

Joint Integrated ContingencyModel (JICM), 286–288,287n

sensitivity analysis and,288–290

value of, 297–298Defense Logistics Agency, 242Defense Modeling and Simulation

Organization (DMSO), 317

Index 371

Defense planning, coping withuncertainty

the future military workforce,157–158

human capital, 159–172the active force,

characteristics of,159–165, 162n, 163n

looking to the future,169–172

ongoing revolutions,165–168

manpower and personnelanalysis, 172–179

analytic process, 172–174objectives and alternatives,

identifying, 174–179information technology,

incorporating inforecasting the future,

103–107, 104nmission-system analysis and,

144the physical battlefield, real

revolutions on, 107–118,107n

coming of knowledge-basedmilitary, 114–116

from contingency tonecessity, 112–114

conventional war, hyperwar,and mud warfare,117–118, 117n

precision guided munitions(PGMs), 107–112

September 11, events of,128–129, 129n

the virtual battlefield, falserevolutions on, 119–128

antisensor operations,121–122

command-and-controlwarfare, 124–125

computer hacker warfare,126–128

electronic warfare, 122,123–124, 123n

information warfare, defining,119–120

psychological operations,125–126

introduction, 1–2, 98–102, 99n21st century soldier, 181–182

all-volunteer force, 186–207attracting quality personnel,

189–199, 190n, 194n,195n, 197n

compensation, economictheories of, 199–207, 200n


initial sorting, 204–205motivation of effort,

203–204specific human capital,

202–203tournaments, 205–207,

205n, 206nversatility and leadership,

187–189, 188n, 189nissues for the future, 207–209visions of future forces,

182–186cyber soldier, 182–183evolutionary change,

185–186information warrior, 183low-manning vessels,

184–185peace operations, 184rapid response force, 184

uncertainty-sensitive strategicplanning

capabilities-based planning,141–155, 142n, 151n

choices and resourceallocation, 151–155, 151n

key features of, 142–144mission-system analysis and,

144, 144n


multiple objectives andmeasures of, 145

scenario space strategy,146–151

conceptual strategic planning,134–141

in portfolio-managementterms, 138–141, 139n

strategic planning methods,134–138, 134n, 135n,137n, 138n

historical surprises, 131–134,131n, 133n, 134n

Defense Planning Guidance, 19Defense Policy Panel, 27nDefense Reform Initiative Directive

(DRID), 239Defense Resources Board (DRB), 17Defense Systems Acquisition Review

Council, 22–23Demography, changes in, 105Density reduction operations, 54Department of Defense, see DoD

(Department of Defense)Department of Homeland Security,

321Department of the Navy (DoN)

Warfare Task List, 351, 354, 356Desert Storm, 86, 112, 113, 117, 133,

361Detection measures, against CBW

threats, 55–56Deterrence strategy, against CBW

threats, 61–62, 61n, see alsoAsymmetric threats, respondingto

“Developing Scenarios to SupportC3I Analyses” (Starr), 311n

Dewar, James A., 135nDigital electronics, 84, 123, 124Dimensional parameters (DPs), 312Disaster relief, 184Dispersal/evacuation operations, 54Dissuasion strategy, against WMD

threats, 59–60Dixon, Nancy, 88n

DMSO (Defense Modeling andSimulation Organization), 317

Doctrine, organization, training,material, leadership andeducation, personnel, andfacilities (DOTML-PF),306–307, 308, 310

DoD (Department of Defense)divided authority of, 15–17, 15nexpenditure patterns of, 19, 20, 21information architecture for,

74–78, 89information systems of, 299information warfare (IW), 327,

327ninvestment decisions of, 23, 24, 27planning scenarios of, 14–15, 60,

see also Best commercialpractices (BCPs), relevant toDoD

Dolan, Philllip J., 48nDoN (Department of the Navy)

programs, 351, 354, 356DOTML-PF (doctrine, organization,

training, material, leadershipand education, personnel, andfacilities), 306–307, 308, 310

DPs (dimensional parameters), 312Draft era, 166DRB (Defense Resources Board), 17DRID (Defense Reform Initiative

Directive), 239DSD (Decision Support

Department), 342, 343, 354The DynaRank Decision Support

System (Hillestad), 153n

“The Economics of MilitaryManpower” (Warner), 190n

Economics strategy, 27–28“An Ecstasy of Fumbling: Doctrine

and Innovation” (McKenzie),45n

Educational achievement,166–168

Edwards, Sean, 85n

Index 373

EELV (Air Force’s EvolvedExpendable Launch Vehicle), 27

The Effects of Nuclear Weapons(Glasstone), 48

Effort motivation theory,203–204

Egypt, 47, 116Eitelberg, Mark, 162nElectronic meeting systems (EMS),

253, 339–340, 339nexample of, prioritizing naval

programs, 342–359challenges of, 342–344other possible uses, 358–359overview of methodology,

344–358processes and advantages of,

340–342, 340nElectronic payment systems,

330–333, 330n, 331nElectronic warfare, 120, 122,

123–124, 123n, see alsoInformation technology, fordefense planning

Emergency Planning andCommunity Right-to-Know Act(EPCRA), 214

EMS (electronic meeting system), seeElectronic meeting systems(EMS)

Encryption, 124Engineering, systems, 87Enlisted force, 168, 170, see also

Military workforce, futureplanning for

Enlisted-to-officer ratio, 161–162Environment shaping, 137, 138,

138n, 140EPCRA (Emergency Planning and

Community Right-to-KnowAct), 214

EU (European Union), 329Eunjung Cha, Ariana, 81nEurope, 92, 105European Union (EU), 329

Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle(EELV), 27

EXHALT model, 279Expeditionary Aerospace Force, 308“Experimental Evaluation of

Alternative and AdaptiveArchitectures in Command andControl” (Kemple), 310n

Experiments in MultiresolutionModeling (Davis), 267n

Exploratory analysis andimplications

enabling exploratory analysis,265–277, 267n, 268n

multiresolution,multiperspective modeling(MRMPM), 270–277, 271n,272n, 274n

using Occam’s razor, 269–270exploratory analysis, 147–151, 154,

256–265advanced concepts of, 265defining, 256–258, 256n, 258nstructural uncertainties,

258–259, 258ntypes of, 259–265, 259n, 262n

introduction, 255, 255nparameterized example,

282–283, 282nrecent experience, lessons from,

278–281, 278n, 279nusing exploratory modeling, 285

fundamentals of, 290–297need for, 285–290

Joint Integrated ContingencyModel (JICM), 286–288,287n

sensitivity analysis and,288–290

value of, 297–298, see also Defensedecisionmaking, new tools for

Exploratory Analysis of “The HaltProblem”: A Briefing on Methodsand Initial Insights (Davis), 261n

“Exploratory Modeling for PolicyAnalysis” (Bankes), 256n


“A Failure to Learn: AmericanAntisubmarine Warfare in1942,” 87n

FAIR (Federal Activities InventoryReform of 1998), 239

FAR (Federal AcquisitionRegulations), 24, 26

FCS (Future Combat System), 308,318

Federal Acquisition Regulations(FAR), 24, 26

Federal Acquisition Streamlining Actof 1994, 26

Federal Activities Inventory Reform(FAIR) Act of 1998, 239

Financial Crimes EnforcementNetwork (FinCEN), 330, 331, 334

FinCEN (Financial CrimesEnforcement Network), 330,331, 334

Fitzhugh commission (1970), 27Force XXI initiative, 70Forecasting, 103–104, 250Forrestal, James, 15Forrester, Jay, 269“Forward from the Sea,” 308Fox, Daniel B., 45n, 286“A Framework for Information

Systems Architecture”(Zachman), 72n

France, 112Fukuyama, Frank, 73nFuture Combat System (FCS), 308,

318“Future of the Agreed Framework”

(Myong Chol), 43Future Years Defense Program

(FYDP), 20FYDP (Future Years Defense

Program ), 20

Gansler, Jacques, 27Gardiner, Sam, 45nGCCS (Global Command and

Control System), 70, 83

Gebman, J. R., 230nGen Dets (general detail personnel),

185General detail personnel (Gen Dets),

185Geneva Convention, 90Germany, 45n, 123, 189GI Bill, 190, 195n, 200GIG (global information grid), 70–71,

77, 79, 82, 307, 308, see alsoInformation architecture, fordefense

Glasstone, Samuel, 48nGlobal Business Network, 128Global Command and Control

System (GCCS), 70, 83Global information grid (GIG), 70–71,

77, 79, 82, 307, 308, see alsoInformation architecture, fordefense

Global positioning system (GPS), 46,108

GNP (gross national product), 112Goldwater Nichols Act of 1986, 16–17Gompert, David C., 139nGooch, John, 87nGoodman, Glenn W. Jr., 46nGordon, Michael R., 42nGovernment-operated shipyards, 23Government Performance and

Results Act, 19nGPS (global positioning system), 46,

108Grace commission (1983), 27Gross national product (GNP), 112Ground force invasions, 36nGround sensors, 111, 122Group decisionmaking, 98“Group Decision Making”

(Schoemaker), 99nGroupware: Collaborative Strategies

for Corporate LAN’s andIntranets, 340n

Guerilla warfare, 38

Index 375

Guidance and Terms of Reference forthe 2001 Quadrennial DefenseReview (Rumsfeld), 36n

Handbook of Defense Economics,Vol. 1 (Hartley), 190n

Hanley, Janet M., 197nHartley, Keith, 190nHazardous pay, 200Heat-seeking missiles, 108Henderson, William Darryl, 188nHenrion, Max, 259nHermann, Robert, 300Hidden Order: How Adaptation

Builds Complexity (Holland),134n

Hiebeler, Robert, 223nHigh Level Architecture (HLA), 304Hillestad, R. J., 153nHitch, Charles, 19HLA (High Level Architecture), 304Hoegberg, K. T., 304nHolland, John, 134nHolmstrom, Bengt, 206nHomeland security, 31, 321, 333nHoover commissions (1949 & 1955),

27Hosek, James R., 181, 196nHouse Committee on Armed

Services, 27nHuman capital, military

the active force, characteristics of,159–165, 162n, 163n

compensation, economic theoriesof, 199–200, 200n


initial sorting, 204–205issues for the future, 207–209motivation of effort, 203–204specific human capital,

202–203tournaments, 205–207, 205n,

206n

looking to the future, 169–172ongoing revolutions of,

165–168, see also Militaryworkforce, future planning for

Human intelligence (HUMINT), 64Humanitarian operations, 161, 184Hundley, Richard O., 37nHussein, Saddam, 39, 112Hybrid exploration, 260, 263Hyperwar, 76–77, 117, 118

ICBMs (intercontinental ballisticmissiles), 35

Identification Friend Foe or Neutral[IFFN] test bed, 304

Iiachinski, Andrew, 317nIl Sung, Kim, 40n, 49n“Implementing Multiresolution

Models and Families of Models:From Entity Level Simulation toPersonal-Computer StochasticModels and Simple ‘ReproModels’” (McEver), 279n

India, 47Information architecture, for

defense, 67–68defining, 68–78, 70n

cultural factors, 73–74, 73nDoD’s requirements, 74–78global information grid (GIG),

70–71hierarchy of, 72–73

elements of, 78–94access, 80–82, 81n, 82ncollection, 78–80integration, 93–94interoperability, 90–93, 91n, 93nknowledge maintenance and

management, 86–89, 87n,88n

networking, 84–86presentation, 82–84, 83nsecurity, 89–90


empowerment of, 94–95, see alsoInformation technology, fordefense planning; Militaryinformation systems,assessment of

Information operations, againstWMD threats, 38,62–63, see also Asymmetricthreats, responding to

Information systems, seeInformation architecture, fordefense; Informationtechnology, for defenseplanning; Military informationsystems, assessment of

Information technology, for defenseplanning

forecasting the future,103–107, 104n

mission-system analysis and, 144,144n

the physical battlefield, realrevolutions on, 107–118, 107n

coming of knowledge-basedmilitary, 114–116

from contingency to necessity,112–114

conventional war, hyperwar,and mud warfare,117–118, 117n

precision guided munitions(PGMs), 107–112

September 11, events of,128–129, 129n

the virtual battlefield, falserevolutions on, 119–128

antisensor operations,121–122

command-and-control warfare,124–125

electronic warfare, 122,123–124, 123n

hacker warfare, 126–128information warfare, defining,

119–120

psychological operations,125–126, see also Defensedecisionmaking, new toolsfor; Defense planning,coping with uncertainty

Information warfare (IW), 38,119–120, 327, see alsoInformation technology, fordefense planning

Information warrior, 183, see alsoMilitary workforce, futureplanning for

Input exploration, see Exploratoryanalysis and implications

Inspections, CBW, 58“Institutional and Occupational

Trends in the Armed Forces”(Moskos), 197n

Integrated process teams (IPTs), 235,237, 240

Intelligence community, U.S., 59, 77,78

Intelligence, surveillance, andreconnaissance (ISR) system, 77

Interception, message, 123Intercontinental ballistic missiles

(ICBMs), 35Internet access, 69, 72, 73, 84, 94Interoperability, 90–93, 91n, 93n, 116Investment decisions, review process

of, 22–27, 23n, 25n, 27n“Investment in Human Capital: A

Theoretical Analysis” (Becker),200n

IPTs (integrated process teams), 235,237, 240

IRA (Irish Republican Army), 43Iran, 47, 49n, 57, 329Iraq, 28, 36, 39, 41, 43n, 45, 47, 48, 58,

62, 113Irish Republican Army (IRA), 43Irreducible semi-autonomous

adaptive combat (ISAAC), 316–317, 317n

Index 377

ISAAC (irreducible semi-autonomous adaptive combat),316–317, 317n

ISO 9000, 221n, 222–223Israel, 116, 132ISR system (intelligence,

surveillance, andreconnaissance), 77

Italy, 189IT 21 project, 70IW (information warfare), 38,

119–120, 327, see alsoInformation technology, fordefense planning

Jabal Ali, 39Japan, 42, 105JASON study, 70JCS (Joint Chiefs of Staff), 17, 319JDAM (Joint Direct Attack Munition),

108JFCOM (Joint Forces Command),

308, 317, 321JICM (Joint Integrated Contingency

Model), 256, 276, 286–288, 297,see also Exploratory analysis andimplications

Johnson, Stuart E., 339Joint Battlespace Infosphere, 71,

309nJoint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), 17, 319Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM),

108Joint Forces Command (JFCOM),

308, 317, 321Joint Integrated Contingency Model

(JICM), 256, 276, 286–288, 297,see also Exploratory analysis andimplications

Joint Internet for secret material(SIPRnet), 70

Joint Internet for unclassified work(NIPRnet), 70

Joint Mission Essential Task List, 351Joint Requirements Oversight

Council, 18

Joint Simulation System (JSIMS), 309Joint Surveillance Target Attack

Radar System (JSTARS), 80, 110,121

Joint Virtual Battlespace (JVB), 318Joint Vision 2010, 70, 319nJoint Vision 2020, 70, 304n, 319nJoint Warfare System (JWARS), 309,

321Jones, Daniel T., 217nJoy, Bill, 75JSIMS (Joint Simulation System), 309JSTARS (Joint Surveillance Target

Attack Radar System), 80, 110,121

Junior enlisted, 166, 170, 172JVB (Joint Virtual Battlespace), 318JWARS (Joint Warfare System), 309,

321

Kaminski, Paul, 26nKelly, Thomas B., 223nKelman, Steven, 231nKemple, William G., 310nKennedy administration, 18–19Khobar Towers, 44Knowledge-based military, 114–116,

see also Information technology,for defense planning

Knowledge management,86–89, see also Informationarchitecture, for defense

Korea, 15, 39, 140, 163, 164, 285Kosovo, 41, 117, 133Kuwait, 40, 291

LaBerge, Walt, 313Lampert, Robert, 256nLanchester square law, 282–283The Language Instinct (Pinker), 91nLaser-guided artillery, 108Lazear, Edward P., 203nLeadership skills, 188–189, 188n,

189nLean production, 217–218, 218n


Learning About Quality: How theQuality of Military Personnel IsRevealed over Time (Hosek),196n

Lebanon, 41, 42Leggett, Robert L., 36nLevine, Arnold S., 219nLevy, Daniel S., 197nLibicki, Martin C., 67, 103, 144Libya, 36, 47Lindbloom, Charles, 137nLippiatt, Abell T., 218nLogistical uncertainties, 113, 218nLong-range propulsion systems, 112Luck, Jeff, 219nLurie, Ranan R., 49n

The Machine That Changed theWorld (Womack), 217

Macro-scale technologies, 107, 108Maintenance work, mandates for,

23nMajor theater wars (MTWs), 14, 15n,

28, 140, 185, 186, 350Malcolm Baldrige Award, 221n, 223Management by exception,

30–31Maneuver warfare, 34n, 113Man-guided weapons, 80, 108Manpower requirements, see


Marine Corps, U.S., 93, 192, 308Massachusetts Institute of

Technology (MIT), 302Mateski, Mark, 43nMattock, Michael G., 196nMCES (Modular Command and

Control Evaluation Structure),302

McEver, Jimmie, 149n, 258n, 279nMcKenzie, Kenneth F. Jr., 45nMcNamara, Robert, 17, 19, 22, 27, 29,

30Measures of effectiveness (MOEs),

145, 312

Measures of force effectiveness(MOFEs), 312

Measures of merit (MOMs),311–313

Measures of performance (MOPs),312

Measuring Capabilities forInterdiction: ExploratoryAnalysis to Inform AdaptiveStrategies for the Persian Gulf(Davis), 149n

MEMS (micro-electromechanicalsystems), 106

Metamodel, 270nMexico, 329Microbiology, 106Micro-electromechanical systems

(MEMS), 106Microelectronics, 106Microstructures, 106Middle East, 105Military Compensation Background

Papers, 200nMilitary information systems,

assessment of, 299–300, 299nadditional factors in, 307–309,

308n, 309nadvances in, 319context for, 304–307historical perspective, 300–304,

300n, 301n, 302n, 304nNATO code of best practice

(COBP), 309–318, 309n, 312n,316n, 317n

residual challenges, 320–322,320n, see also Defense, newchallenges of; Defensedecisionmaking, new tools for

Military Misfortunes (Cohen), 87nMilitary Operations Research Society

(MORS), 302, 309, 312, 313The Military Specialist: Skilled

Manpower for the Armed Forces(Wool), 162n

Military training, 166–167,187–189

Index 379

Military workforce, future planningfor, 157–158

human capital, 159–172the active force, characteristics

of, 159–165, 162n, 163nlooking to the future,

169–172ongoing revolutions,

165–168manpower and personnel

analysis, 172–179analytic process, 172–174objectives and alternatives,

identifying, 174–17921st century soldier, 181–182

all-volunteer force, 186–207attracting quality personnel,

189–199, 190n, 194n,195n, 197n

compensation, economictheories of, 199–207, 200n


initial sorting, 204–205motivation of effort,

203–204specific human capital,

202–203tournaments, 205–207,

205n, 206nversatility and leadership,

187–189, 188n, 189nissues for the future, 207–209visions of future forces,

182–186cyber soldier, 182–183evolutionary change,

185–186information warrior, 183low-manning vessels,

184–185peace operations, 184rapid response force, 184, see

also Defense planning,coping with uncertainty

Miniaturization, 107, 108

Mintzberg, Henry, 134nMissile launchers, 52Mission oriented approach (MOA),

302, 303Mission-system analysis, 144, 144nMIT (Massachusetts Institute of

Technology), 302Mittleman, Daniel D., 340nMOA (mission oriented approach),

302–303Mobile access, 84Modeling and simulation

(M & S), 314Modular Command and Control

Evaluation Structure (MCES),302

MOEs (measures of effectiveness),145, 312

MOFEs (measures of forceeffectiveness), 312

Mogadishu, 41Molander, Roger C., 328n, 331n,

333nMOMs (measures of merit),

311–313Money laundering study,

330–333, see also Day Aftermethodology

Montgomery GI Bill, 190, 195n, 200MOPs (measures of performance),

312“Moral Hazard and Observability”

(Holmstrom), 206nMorgan, Granger, 259nMorrison, Philip, 107nMORS (Military Operations Research

Society), 302, 309, 312, 313Moskos, Charles C., 197nMotivated Metamodels: Synthesis of

Cause-Effect Reasoning andStatistical Metamodeling(Davis), 267n

MRM (multiresolution modeling),270–277, 271n, 274n, see alsoExploratory analysis andimplications


MRMPM (multiresolution,multiperspective modeling),270–277, 271n, 272n, see alsoExploratory analysis andimplications

M&S (modeling and simulation), 314MTWs (major theater wars), 14, 15n,

28, 140, 185, 286, 350Mud warfare, 117, 118Mullen, Brian, 189nMultiresolution modeling (MRM),

270–277, 271n, 274n, see alsoExploratory analysis andimplications

Multiresolution, multiperspectivemodeling (MRMPM), 270–277,271n, 272n, see also Exploratoryanalysis and implications

Muslims, 129Mussington, David, 323, 331n, 333nMyong Chol, Kim, 43n

National Military Establishment, 15National Security Act of 1949, 15, 22,

29National security policy, U.S.

classification levels, 81consequences for, 13, 286, 319,

347–350development of analytic tools for,

323–324analysis of, 335–337, 336ncomparison of, 333–335, 333ncyberpayments and money

laundering, 330–333, 330n,331n

Day After methodology,324–326

strategic information warfare(SIW), 327–330, 328n

value of, 337–338, see alsoDefense decisionmaking,new tools for

NATO (North Atlantic TreatyOrganization), 45, 115, 116, 117,133, 148

NATO and the Warsaw Pact: ForceComparisons, 35n

NATO Code of Best Practice forCommand and ControlAssessment (COBP), 253n, 300,300n, 309–318, see also Militaryinformation systems,assessment of

NATO corps, 34–35nNATO C3 Master Plan, 304nNaval brilliant antitank (NBAT), 291,

294, 296Naval Postgraduate School (NPS),

301–302Naval Research Laboratory (NRL),

110Naval War College, 248n, 342Navy, U.S., 27, 87, 98, 113, 184, 192,

193, 308NBAT (Naval brilliant antitank), 291,

294, 296NCOs (noncommissioned officers),

166, 167, 170Networking, 84–86, see also


New Challenges for DefensePlanning: Rethinking HowMuch Is Enough (Davis), 256n

The New Management Paradigm: AReview of Principles andPractices (Levine), 219n

“A New Strategy for MilitarySpending” (Morrison), 107n

NGOs (nongovernmentalorganizations), 144, 305, 313,314, 329, 361

NIPRnet (joint Internet forunclassified work), 70

Nitze, Paul, 35nNoncommissioned officers (NCOs),

166, 167, 170

Index 381

Nongovernmental organizations(NGOs), 144, 305, 313, 314, 329,361

Nonwar operations, 161North Atlantic Treaty Organization

(NATO), 45, 115, 116, 117, 133,148

Northeast Asia Peace and SecurityNetwork, 42n

North Korea, 28, 36, 38n, 39, 40n, 42,43, 47, 49n, 57, 61, 62

“North Korea Assails ‘Axis’ Label”(Sands), 61n

No-surprises future, 135“Nowhere to Hide” (Goodman), 46nNPS (Naval Postgraduate School),

301–302NRL (Naval Research Laboratory),

110Nuclear modernization program, 31Nuclear weapons, 35, 47, 48, 52, 53,

57, see also Asymmetric threats,responding to

Nunamaker, Jay F., Jr., 340n

OASD (Office of the AssistantSecretary of Defense), 301

Objective Force Warrior (OFW), 308Occam’s razor, principle of,

269–270Office of Management and Budget

(OMB), 20, 214nOffice of Naval Research (ONR), 302Office of the Assistant Secretary of

Defense (OASD), 301Office of the Secretary of Defense

(OSD), 15, 16, 19, 20, 190, 308,316, 329, 342

Officer manpower, see Militaryworkforce, future planning for

OFW (Objective Force Warrior), 308Okinawa, 140OMB (Office of Management and

Budget), 20, 214nONR (Office of Naval Research), 302On-the-job training, 187

“On the Science of MuddlingThrough” (Lindbloom), 137n

On War (Clausewitz), 133nOOTWs (operations other than war),

309, 310, 312, 314, 317Open-source intelligence, 88Operation Anaconda, 117nOperational adaptiveness, 137Operational architecture, 71, 81Operational Level Norms (Rehm),

36nOperational testing, 23nOperations other than war (OOTWs),

309, 310, 312, 314, 317Optical sensors, 122Organizational change, see Best

commercial practices (BCPs),relevant to DoD

OSD (Office of the Secretary ofDefense), 15, 16, 19, 20, 190, 308,316, 321, 329, 342

Owens, William, 70

Packard, David, 22, 23Packard commission (1986), 27nPakistan, 47Parametric exploration, see


Passive defense, against CBWthreats, 55–56, see alsoAsymmetric threats, respondingto

Past Revolutions, FutureTransformations (Hundley), 37n

Pawlowski, Thomas J., 312nPCCIP (President’s Commission on

Critical InfrastructureProtection), 328n

Peace operations, 77, 184Peacetime conscription, 163n, 164Pearl Harbor, 42Pegasus, 317, 319PEM (personal-computer model),

278, 279, 281Pentagon, 10, 132, 299


Perla, Peter P., 248nPerry, William, 25, 107, 109Persian Gulf War, 15, 40–41, 48, 58,

213, 300, 328Personal-computer model (PEM),

278, 279, 281Personnel policy, 172–174, see also


Personnel productivity, 189–198,190n, 194n, 195n, 197n

Petty officers (POs), 166, 167, 170PGMs (precision guided munitions),

107–112, 115, 186, 355Philippines, 140Physical architecture, 71, 72Pinker, Steven, 91nPint, Ellen M., 233nPlanning, Programming, and

Budgeting System (PPBS), 19–22, 346

Platform-based military, 114Point-guided weapons, 80, 108, 109“The Policy Game” (Mateski), 43nPOM (program objectives

memorandum), 19–20, 30, 174,343

Portfolio-management framework,138–141, 139n, see alsoUncertainty-sensitive strategicplanning

POs (petty officers), 166, 167, 170Post-conflict sanctions, 61PPBS (Planning, Programming, and

Budgeting System),19–22, 346

Precision guided munitions (PGMs),107–112, 115, 186, 355

Preemption strategy, against WMDthreats, 60–61, see alsoAsymmetric threats, respondingto

President, U.S., 18President’s Commission on Critical

Infrastructure Protection(PCCIP), 328n

President’s National SecurityStrategy, 344

Prevention, against WMD threats,57–59, see also Asymmetricthreats, responding to

Private contractors, 24Private-sector wages, 208, 209“Prizes and Incentives in Elimination

Tournaments” (Rosen), 205nProbabilistic exploration, see


Procurement and PublicManagement (Kelman), 231n

Procurement process, defense,22–27, 23n, 25n, 27n

Program objectives memorandum(POM), 19–20, 30, 174, 343

Proliferation of Weapons of MassDestruction: Assessing the Risks,48n

Promotions, competitions for,205–207, 205n, 206n

Promotion Tempo and EnlistedRetention (Buddin), 197n

Propaganda, 120, 125Protection, against CBW threats,

50–56, see also Asymmetricthreats, responding to

Protective clothing, against CBWthreats, 55–56

Psychological operations (PSYOP),63, 120, 125–126

Public access, to civilianinformation, 80–82, 81n

Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR),33, 49, 60, 139, 253, 318, 342

Quarantine/travel operations, 54

Radar-based technology, 52,121–122, see also Informationarchitecture, for defense;Information technology, fordefense planning

Radar-guided missiles, 108

Index 383

Radar jamming, 123Radiological weapons, 47RAND Strategy Assessment System

(RSAS), 256nR&D (research and development),

25n, 59, 299, 302Rapid response force, 184Realpolitik, 138Reconnaissance satellites, 78, 80,

108, 110, 121, 122Recruit quality and retention rates,

189–198, 190n, 194n, 195n, 197nRegular military compensation, 200,

201nRehm, Allan S., 36n“The Relationship Between Group

Cohesiveness and Performance”(Mullen), 189n

Relocation operations, 54Remote-controlled weapons, 111Report of the Defense Science Board

Task Force on InformationWarfare, 119n

Report of the Quadrennial DefenseReview (Cohen), 33n, 49n

Research and development (R&D),25n, 59, 299, 302

Reserve Officers Training Corps(ROTC), 200

Reservists, selected, 166, 172The Retention of High-Quality

Personnel in the U.S. ArmedForces (Ward), 196n

Retention rates, 189–198, 190n, 194n,195n, 197n

Retirement benefits, 203–204, 207,see also Compensation,economic theories of

Revolution in military affairs (RMA),13, 37, 38, 46, 112, 172, 186

Riddile, Andrew S., 328nThe Rise and Fall of Strategic

Planning (Mintzberg), 134n“Risks Prompt U.S. to Limit Access to

Data” (Eunjung Cha), 81n

RMA (revolution in military affairs),13, 37, 38, 46, 112, 172, 186

Roos, Daniel, 217nRosen, Sherwin, 205nROTC (Reserve Officers Training

Corps), 200RSAS (RAND Strategy Assessment

System), 256nRumsfeld, Donald H., 36n, 61nRussia, 47, 112, 189, 328, 329

SADARM (sense and destroy armormunition), 46

SALT (Strategic Arms LimitationsTreaty), 57

SAMs (surface-to-air missiles), 39,109

Sandler, Todd, 190nSands, David R., 61nSARA (Superfund Amendments and

Reauthorization Act), 214nSatellites, reconnaissance, 78, 80,

108, 110, 121, 122Saudi Arabia, 44, 291, 328SBA (Small Business

Administration), 241SBCT (Stryker Brigade Combat

Team), 308SCAV (Sea Cavalry), 291, 292, 294,

296Scenario-based planning, 250, 250nScenario space strategy, 146–151,

256, see also Capabilities-basedplanning

Schlesinger, Michael E., 256nSchoemaker, Paul J. H., 99nSchwartz, Peter, 128Scud missile defenses, 40, 41, 53Sea Cavalry (SCAV), 291, 292, 294,

296SEAD (suppression of enemy air

defenses), 150, 265Seaport of debarkation (SPOD), 291Second sourcing, 24nSecretary of Defense, see Office of the

Secretary of Defense (OSD)


Security architectures, 75, 89–90, seealso Information architecture,for defense

Seeker-guided weapons, 80, 108Selected reservists, 166, 172Self-defense systems, 113“The Self-Evaluation Organization”

(Wildavsky), 99nSenior Readiness Oversight Council

(SROC), 18Sense and destroy armor munition

(SADARM), 46Sensemaking, 320nSensitivity analysis, 288–290, see also


Sensor systems, 79–80, 86, 108,110–111, see also Informationarchitecture, for defense;Information technology, fordefense planning; Militaryinformation systems,assessment of

September 11, events of, 10,128–129, 129n, 286, 361–362

Sequencing operations, 54Serbia, 115Service Visions, 308nSharing protections, with allies, 65,

65nSha Zukang, 42nShewhart cycle, 229nShips, 121, 184–185Short-range ballistic missiles, 50Shulman, H. L., 230nSimon, Herbert, 98nSinai, 116SINCGARS (Single Channel Ground

and Airborne Radio System), 84Single Channel Ground and Airborne

Radio System (SINCGARS), 84SIPRnet (joint Internet for secret

material), 70SIW (strategic information warfare),

327–330, 328n

SLBMs (submarine-launchedballistic missiles), 35

Sloan, Joan F., 36nSmall Business Administration

(SBA), 241Smallpox virus, 35, 59Soldier, of the 21st century, see


Somalia, 41, 169SORTS (Status of Readiness and

Training System), 175nSourcing practices, see Best

commercial practices (BCPs),relevant to DoD

South Korea, 38n, 62Southwest Asia (SWA), 291, 328Soviet Union threat, 10, 28, 34, 36n,

45, 300Spanish American War, 161Special forces operations, 39, 40nSPOD (seaport of debarkation), 291Spoofing, message, 123Spy satellites, 78, 80, 108, 110, 121,

122SROC (Senior Readiness Oversight

Council), 18Standoff operations, 38, 54, 76Starr, Stuart H., 299, 311n, 317nSTART models, 276Status of Readiness and Training

System (SORTS), 175nStealth aircraft, 111Strategic adaptiveness, 137Strategic Arms Limitations Treaty

(SALT), 57Strategic forecasting, 103–104, 250Strategic Information Warfare: A New

Face of War (Molander), 328nStrategic information warfare (SIW),

327–330, 328nStrategic planning, 249–250, 250n,

see also Uncertainty-sensitivestrategic planning

Strategic warning, 131n

Index 385

A Strategy for Reforming AvionicsAcquisition and Support(Gebman), 230n

Strength-on-strength combat, 34Stryker Brigade Combat Team

(SBCT), 308Submarine-launched ballistic

missiles (SLBMs), 35Sudan, 47Suez Canal, 132Suicide bombers, 129Sullivan, Gordon, 71Sun Tzu, 34nSuperfund Amendments and

Reauthorization Act (SARA),214n

Suppression of enemy air defenses(SEAD), 150, 265

Surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), 39,109

SWA (Southwest Asia), 291, 328Swarming on the Battlefield: Past,

Present, and Future (Edwards),85n

Synchronizing operations, 64–65Syria, 47Systems architecture, see


TACCSF (Theater Air Command andControl Simulation Facility), 304

Tactical Infosphere, 309nTACWAR models, 276, 320Taft, William, 31Taiwan, 39Taliban, 42, 129, 183Tan, Hong W., 196nTCOs (transcontinental criminal

organizations), 328, 330Technical architecture, 71

Technology, changes in, 105–107, seealso Information architecture,for defense; Informationtechnology, for defenseplanning; Military informationsystems, assessment of

Tenet, George, 43, 44nTerrorism, 10, 39, 52, 62, 118, 286,

361–362Thatcher, Margaret, 43Theater Air Command and Control

Simulation Facility (TACCSF),304

Theory of Model Aggregation forDynamical Systems withApplications to Problems ofGlobal Change (Axtell), 274n

Theory of Self-Replacing Automata(Von Neumann), 307n

Thie, Harry J., 157Threat avoidance operations, 54Threat management, 56–63, 59n,

60n, 61n, see also Asymmetricthreats, responding to

TOC (total ownership cost), 231n,235, 240

Tomahawk cruise missile, 108Total force policy, 165–166Total ownership cost (TOC), 231n,

235, 240Total quality management (TQM),

219–223differentiating viewpoints, 222–

223key benefits of, 219–222, see also

Best commercial practices(BCPs), relevant to DoD

Tournament models, 205–207, 205n,206n

TOW (tube-launched, opticallytracked, wire-guided) antitankmissile, 108

“Toward a NATO C3 Master Plan”(Hoegberg), 304n

“Toward 21st-Century Deterrence”(Rumsfeld), 61n


Toxic releases inventory (TRI), 214TQM, see Total quality management

(TQM)Training, military, 166–168, 187–189,

see also Military workforce,future planning for

Transcontinental criminalorganizations (TCOs), 328, 330

Transformation concepts, seeCapabilities-based planning

Transmitters, digital, 123Treverton, Gregory F., 33n, 212TRI (toxic releases inventory), 214Trust: The Social Virtues and the

Creation of Prosperity(Fukuyama), 73n

Tube-launched, optically tracked,wire-guided (TOW) antitankmissile, 108

Twenty First Century DestroyerProgram (DD21), 27

“Two Legs Do Not a CentipedeMake” (Leggett), 36n

Twomey, Christopher P., 33n

UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles),39, 80, 110, 112, 114, 121, 122,358

UCAVs (unmanned combat airvehicles), 111

U.N. (United Nations), 58Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with

Uncertainty in Quantitative Riskand Policy Analysis (Morgan),259n

Uncertainty-sensitive strategicplanning

capabilities-based planning, 141–155, 142n, 151n

choices and resource allocation,151–155, 151n

key features of, 142–144mission-system analysis and,

144, 144nmultiple objectives and

measures of, 145

scenario space strategy,146–151

conceptual strategic planning,134–141

in portfolio-management terms,138–141, 139n

strategic planning methods,134–138, 134n, 135n, 137n,138n

historical surprises, 131–134, 131n,133n, 134n, see also Defensedecisionmaking, new toolsfor; Defense planning, copingwith uncertainty

United Nations (U.N.), 58Universal service, 163, 163nUnmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs),

39, 80, 110, 112, 114, 121, 122,358

Unmanned combat air vehicles(UCAVs), 111

Unmanned ground sensors, 122U.S. Ground Forces and the Defense

of Central Europe, 35n

Van Trees, Harry, 300Verify, validate, and certify (VV&C),

314Versatility skills, 187–188Vessels, low-manning, 184–185Vietnam War, 108, 111, 164Voluntary enlistment, 163Von Neumann, John, 307Vulnerability, reducing, see

Asymmetric threats, respondingto

VV&C (verify, validate, and certify),314

Wages, military, 189, 200–201, seealso Compensation, economictheories of

Waldman, Donald M., 197nWalker, Paul F., 107nWard, Michael P., 196n

Index 387

Warfare, information technologyand, see Informationtechnology, for defenseplanning

Warner, John T., 190nWarsaw Pact, 33, 35Wartime conscription, 163–165, 163nWeapons, acquisition of, 27Weapons of mass destruction

(WMD) threats of, 36, 39, 40, 41,47–49, 48n, 49n, 50n, 57, 184, seealso Asymmetric threats,responding to

Weaving the Web (Berners-Lee), 91nWeinberger, Caspar, 16, 31Welch, Jasper A., Jr., 300, 301nWhat Are Asymmetric Strategies?

(Bennett), 33“What Wargaming Is and Is Not”

(Perla), 248n“When We Don’t Know the Costs or

the Benefits: Adaptive Strategiesfor Abating Climate Change”(Lempert), 256n

Whiteboarding, 125nWhite House, 77“Why Is There Mandatory

Retirement?” (Lazear), 203nWildavsky, Aaron, 99n

Wilson, Barry, 149nWilson, Peter A., 328n, 331n, 333nWinnefeld, James A., 256nWizard Wars, 123WMD (weapons of mass

destruction), threats of, 36, 39,40, 41, 47–49, 48n, 49n, 50n, 57,184, see also Asymmetric threats,responding to

Womack, James P., 217nWool, Harold, 162nWorkforce requirements, see Military

workforce, future planning forWorking Knowledge (Davenport),

88nWorld Trade Center, 129World War I, 45n, 162, 164World War II, 17, 40n, 42, 53, 68, 132,

162World Wide Web access, 73, 82, 88

Yom-Kippur war, 132Yugoslavia, 112

Zachman, J. A., 72n“Zero” supply, against biological

agents, 58Zraket, Charles, 300

389

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Bruce W. Bennett (Ph.D., policy analysis, RAND Graduate Institutefor Public Policy Analysis) is a senior analyst and professor of policyanalysis at RAND. His research interests include military strategy andforce planning, countering proliferation of weapons of mass de-struction, Korea, and the Persian Gulf.

Nurith Berstein (Masters in public administration, Carleton Univer-sity, Ottawa, Canada) is a researcher at RAND specializing in nationaland international security policy issues.

Frank Camm (Ph.D., economics, University of Chicago) leads re-search at RAND on high-level Army resource management issuesassociated with force structure design, logistics policy, andacquisition of combat service support services.

David S.C. Chu (Ph.D., economics, Yale University) has served in avariety of RAND and national security government posts.

Paul K. Davis (Ph.D., chemical physics, Massachusetts Institute ofTechnology) is a senior scientist and research leader at RAND. His re-search encompasses a number of areas, including strategic defenseplanning, future forces and force transformation, and advancedmodeling and simulation. He is a professor at the RAND GraduateSchool; a member or former member of the Naval Studies Board ofthe National Research Council, the Defense Science Board, and theU.S. SALT Delegation; and author of numerous books and studies.

Daniel B. Fox (Ph.D., operations research, University of Illinois) is asenior operations research analyst at RAND. His focus is the design


and application of computer simulations for analysis of complexmilitary operations. Dr. Fox has over 30 years of experience inmilitary operations analysis.

James R. Hosek (Ph.D., economics, University of Chicago) is a senioreconomist at RAND, editor-in-chief of the RAND Journal of Eco-nomics, RAND Graduate School professor, and former director ofRAND’s Defense Manpower Research Center.

Stuart E. Johnson (Ph.D., physical chemistry, Massachusetts Instituteof Technology) was a senior scientist at RAND when this researchwas completed. He has many years of experience in defense planningand analysis at the Department of Defense, NATO headquarters, andin private industry.

Martin C. Libicki (Ph.D., city and regional planning, University ofCalifornia, Berkeley) is a senior policy analyst at RAND whose areasof expertise include the application of information technology to na-tional security.

David Mussington (Ph.D., political science, Carleton University) is apolitical scientist at RAND. Among his areas of expertise are criticalinfrastructure protection, information and technology security, andcounterterrorism and cyberterrorism.

Stuart H. Starr (Ph.D., electrical engineering, University of Illinois) isthe Director of Plans at The MITRE Corporation; his areas of exper-tise include the assessment of information systems in the context ofnational security missions.

Harry J. Thie, (Doctorate, business administration, GeorgeWashington University) is a senior management scientist at RANDwhose research explores military career management and defenseorganization, manpower, personnel, and training.

Gregory F. Treverton (Ph.D., economics and politics, Harvard Uni-versity) is a senior policy analyst at RAND. He has worked on intel-ligence and on Europe for Congress, the White House and theNational Intelligence Council; his current research interests alsoinclude Asia and public-private partnerships.

Documents

New Challenges, New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking · Anthrax threat, 35, 48n, 50n Anti-aircraft missiles, 108 Anti-American sentiments, 129 Antisensor operations, 121–122, see