New England North West – What’s the Housing Demand?Population Forecast At the 2016 Census, the New England North West Region had a population of

181,536 (up by 5,349 or 3% from 176,253 in 2011). In 2016, the Aboriginal population of the New England North West was 18,387 or

10.1% of the total – compared to 2.9% on average for NSW. The Department of Planning, Industry and Environment (DPIE) have prepared

population and household projections for all of the local government areas in NSW. DPIE forecast that between 2016 and 2036 the population of the region will increase by 13,800 and an additional 9,700 dwellings will be required.

DPIE forecast that population growth will vary across the New England North West region, with the highest rates of growth expected to occur across LGAs with larger urban centres, including Tamworth Regional and Armidale Regional as well as Gunnedah and Inverell and also Uralla.

Age The age profile of the region and particularly each LGA will impact on housing

need and demand, including number of bedrooms, affordability, location and dwelling type.

The median age of the New England North West Region population at 2016 ranges from 36 in Armidale Regional to 48 in Gwydir and Walcha, (compared to 36 in Sydney and 43 in the Rest of NSW).

Overall, the region has a higher proportion of younger age groups (0-14 years and 15-24) than the Rest of NSW average and a slightly lower proportion of older age groups than the Rest of NSW.

At the 2016 Census, there was some variation in age profile across the New England North West Region LGAs:

o The majority of LGA’s had a higher proportion of 0-14 year olds than the average for the Rest of NSW.

o Armidale Regional, Inverell and Tamworth Regional had a higher proportion of 15-24 year olds than the Rest of NSW.

o Moree Plains, Tamworth Regional and Narrabri a higher proportion of 25-44 year olds.

o Most LGAs had a higher proportion of 45- 64, 65-74 and 75-84 year olds.

o Glen Innes Severn, Walcha and Gwydir were the only LGAs with a higher proportion aged 85+ than the Rest of NSW.

DPIE project an increase in older age groups in the New England North West to 2036.

This suggests an increased need for housing that is accessible and appropriate, especially for the needs of older cohorts.

In 2015, over 85% of older Australians lived in private dwellings, with 73% of them owning their own home. 6.6% were in residential accommodation and 6.6%

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

lived in 'other non-private dwellings' such as caravan parks and self-care units in retirement villages. Older Australians strongly prefer to age in place.

Increasingly older residents require support to age in place and to ensure their homes are safe and appropriate for their needs.

The graph below depicts the age profile for each of the New England North West LGAs plus the Region as a whole and the Rest of NSW.

Although the majority of older Australians own their own home, about 15% of older Australians are renters, and these people are generally a highly vulnerable and economically disadvantaged group, with older women being the fastest growing demographic of people experiencing homelessness. There is therefore a need for more adaptable, accessible dwellings, well located, secure, low maintenance and affordable to meet the needs of seniors and frail aged in particular, within their communities. Those most in need are households in the private rental market, who struggle to afford housing on an Aged Pension or inadequate superannuation1.

Household Type At the 2016 Census the New England North West Region had a higher proportion

of lone person and “other” household types and lower proportions of couple family with children, couple and group households than the average for the Rest of NSW.

In the Region couple households (26.4%), closely followed by lone person households (26.3%) are the largest household types.

1 "Housing Decisions of Older Australians" Productivity Commission December 2015.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

Couple and lone person households comprise 52.7% of all households while families comprise 35.7% (group households make up 2.8% and other household types a further 8.7% of all households).

However there is variation within the region:o Gunnedah and Uralla have higher proportions of couple family with

children households than the Rest of NSW average.o Tenterfield, Glen Innes Severn, Liverpool Plains, Armidale Regional,

Walcha, Gunnedah and Inverell have higher proportions of lone person households;

o Moree Plains, Armidale Regional, Narrabri, Gunnedah and Tamworth Regional have lower proportions of couple households than the Rest of NSW average.

o Tamworth Regional and Moree Plains have higher proportions of one parent families than the Rest of NSW average.

o Moree Plains, Tenterfield, Narrabri, Walcha, Gwydir, Glen Innes Severn and Liverpool Plains have higher proportion of other household types.

o Armidale has a higher proportion of group households. The graph below shows the proportion of household types at the 2016 Census for

each of the New England North West LGAs, as well as the total for the region and the Rest of NSW.

Aboriginal households in this Region show a different household composition. In 2016:

o there were mainly one parent family households (29.3% compared to 11.0% for the Region)

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

o one couple families with children were the next largest households type (27.6% compared to 23.8% for the Region)

o group households comprised 4.9% compared to 2.8% on average in the Region

o and lower proportions of lone person (17.3% compared to 26.3%) and couples (15.5% compared to 26.4%).

DPIE projections until 2036 forecast that the strongest growth will be in lone person and couple only households in New England North West.

The current and projected household composition of the New England North West suggests the need for an increasing diversity of bedroom mix, including more studio (bedsit), one and two bedroom homes to suit different household sizes as the number and proportion of smaller household types increases in the region.

Household Size Average household size in the New England North West at 2016 ranged between

2.1 and 2.5 persons per household. At 2016 the Rest of NSW had an average household size of 2.4 (down from 2.7 in 2001). Average household size has remained stable in half the LGAs within the region and declined in half between 2011 and 2016.

The table below shows average household size for each of the New England North West LGAs and the Rest of NSW from 2006 to 2016.

Area

Average Househol

d Size 2006

Average Househol

d Size 2011

Average Househol

d Size 2016

Armidale Regional 2.50 2.40 2.4Guyra 2.60 2.50  Glen Innes Severn 2.40 2.30 2.2Gunnedah 2.50 2.50 2.5Gwydir 2.40 2.30 2.3Inverell 2.50 2.50 2.4Liverpool Plains 2.40 2.40 2.3Moree Plains 2.70 2.50 2.5Narrabri 2.50 2.50 2.5Tamworth Regional 2.50 2.50 2.5Tenterfield 2.40 2.30 2.1Uralla 2.60 2.60 2.4Walcha 2.50 2.40 2.3Rest of NSW 2.5 2.4 2.4

DCJ Local Government Housing Kit Database- Source: ABS, Analysis FACS.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

Income Low income households predominate in New England North West, comprising

50.2% of all households, above the average of 48.0% for the Rest of NSW. There is not a single LGA in the region which does not have a majority of low income households.

Moderate income households make up 21.5% in the Region, compared with 21.4% in the Rest of NSW. .

High income households in the region comprise 28.4%, below the average of 30.6% in the Rest of NSW.

There is some variation between New England North West LGAs:o Tenterfield has the highest proportion of low income households with

65.6%, followed by Glen Innes Severn with 62.4%, Gwydir with 59.8% and Inverell with 57.6%.

o Tamworth Regional has the highest proportion of moderate income households with 22.9%, followed by Uralla with 21.8% and Narrabri and Walcha with 21.4%.

o Moree Plains has the highest proportion of high income households with 34.6%, followed by Gunnedah with 34.4% and Narrabri with 33.0%.

The table below shows the proportion of low, moderate and high income earners for each Central West and Orana LGA, the average for the region and the Rest of NSW.

The number of low income households increased in the New England North West Region by 2.2% from 32,547 in 2011 to 33,251 in 2016 in line with the trend in Sydney and the Rest of NSW.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

However, virtually all that growth in low income households occurred in Armidale Regional, with some growth also in Uralla, Tamworth Regional, Tenterfield and Inverell and declining numbers in the other LGAs in the region, as the graph below shows.

Also in line with the trend in Sydney and the Rest of NSW, overall New England North West experienced an increase in low income rental households between 2011 and 2016, with an increase of 719 or 9.8%.

Clearly low income rental households are increasing faster across the region and more universally across LGAs than low income households generally, as shown in the graph below.

This suggests that demand for affordable rental housing is increasing in almost every LGA across the region. It is occurring even where there is a decline in low income households generally and in some cases where there is no population growth.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

Industry Structure What occupations residents are employed in will impact what they can afford in

terms of housing tenure, dwelling type, number of bedrooms and location. The industry structure of the New England North West Region is different to that

of the Rest of NSW as a whole, with higher proportions of the population in the region employed in agriculture, forestry and fishing and education and training and lower proportions in construction, accommodation and food services, public administration and safety and health care and social assistance.

Across the region, the largest proportion of New England North West residents are employed in agriculture, forestry and fishing (14.2%); health care and social assistance (12.8%); education and training (10.4%); and retail trade (10.0%).

The following graph illustrates the industry profile for the Central West and Orana region.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

However there is variation between LGAs within the region. For example:o Walcha, Gwydir, Liverpool Plains and Tenterfield have a much higher

proportion employed in agriculture forestry and fishing than the regional average;

o Gunnedah, Narrabri and Liverpool Plains have higher proportions employed in mining;

o Inverell and Tamworth Regional have a higher proportion employed in manufacturing;

o Uralla, Tamworth Regional and Tenterfield have a higher proportion employed in construction;

o Inverell , Tamworth Regional and Armidale Regional have a higher proportion employed in retail trade;

o Glen Innes Severn and Armidale Regional have a higher proportion employed in accommodation and food services;

o Armidale Regional has a higher proportion employed in professional, scientific and technical services;

o Gwydir in public administration and safety;o Armidale Regional and Uralla in education and training; ando Tamworth Regional, Armidale Regional and Inverell in health care and

social assistance. These differences will impact on the housing needs in each LGA in the region

and help shape the housing market. For example the drought will hit communities with a higher proportion employed in agriculture and is likely to impact what those residents and communities can afford in terms of housing type and tenure. To what extent the mining workforce impacts housing demand will depend in part on the phase of mining activity.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

The graph below shows the industry structure for each LGA in the region, indicating both commonalities and variations between each LGA, the New England North West Region and the Rest of NSW.

The graph below provides an overview of the change in employment in the New England North West Region from 2011 to 2016. It shows a significant decline in employment in manufacturing, in line with the trend elsewhere in NSW. Further significant losses occurred in both retail and wholesale trade, transport postal and warehousing and financial and insurance services.

Over the same period there has been strong growth in the number employed in health care and social assistance, administrative and support services, mining, education and training and in construction.

These changes can impact on the need for affordable housing. For example while mining is the nation’s highest paid industry, accommodation and food services is the lowest paid2. Within a sector there can also be significant variation in wages, with for example receptionists and disability care workers being amongst the lowest paid and doctors amongst the highest paid within the health care and social assistance sector.

2 ABS Employee Earnings and Hours, Australia, May 2018

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

Homelessness In NSW, the number of homeless people increased by 37% between 2011 and

2016. Note that the ABS definition of homelessness identifies a person as homeless where they do not have suitable accommodation alternatives and their current living arrangement:

o Is in a dwelling that is inadequate;o Has no tenure or their initial tenure is short and not extendable; oro Does not allow them to have control of and access to space for social

relations. A person is therefore considered homelessness when they are living in

improvised dwellings, tents, sleeping out, supported accommodation, boarding houses, temporary lodgings, overcrowded dwellings or caravan parks.

The number of people sleeping rough in NSW increased by 35% from 2011 to 2016.

Severe overcrowding accounts for 45% of all homeless people in NSW. Severe overcrowding is where usual residents in the dwellings need four or more extra bedrooms to meet occupancy standards. The number of people in severely overcrowded dwellings in NSW increased by 74% from 2011 to 2016.

Adjusting for population growth, the rate of young people in the homeless population increased by 31% and there was a 24% increase in the rate for older people. The rate of homelessness is calculated per 10,000 population.

The table below shows the number of homeless people in the New England North West Region according to the 2011 and 2016 Census.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

AREA All homeless persons 2011

All homeless persons

2016

change % change

Armidale Regional 194 259 65 33.5Glen Innes Severn 20 30 10 50.0Gunnedah 14 18 4 28.6Gwydir 8 13 5 62.5Inverell 52 42 -10 -19.2Liverpool Plains 18 16 -2 -11.1Moree Plains 98 127 29 29.6Narrabri 45 33 -12 -26.7Tamworth Regional 116 205 89 76.7Tenterfield 29 14 -15 -51.7Uralla 9 12 3 33.3Walcha 4 0 -4 -100.0Total 607 769 162 26.7

There was a 26.7% increase in the number of homeless people in New England North West between 2011 and 2016.

The table shows strong growth in the number of homeless in Tamworth Regional and Armidale Regional, and to a lesser extent in Moree Plains. However there were also strong proportional increases in Glen Innes Severn, Gwydir, Gunnedah and Uralla. All other LGAs experienced a decline in the number of homeless over this time frame.

At the 2016 Census there were 356 Aboriginal residents of New England North West who were homeless, or 46.3% of the total homeless population in the region. As Aboriginal residents comprise only 10.1% of the total population, clearly they are significantly overrepresented in the homeless population in New England North West.

Additional DataMore detailed housing data and tables used in this Snapshot are available from the Local Government Housing Kit Database on the Department of Communities and Justice (DCJ) website at:

http://www.housing.nsw.gov.au/Centre+For+Affordable+Housing/NSW+Local+Government+Housing+Kit/Local+Government+Housing+Kit+Database/

More detailed information and resources on an Ageing Population is available on the Local Government NSW website, in the Resource for an Ageing Population:

http://www.lgnsw.org.au/policy/ageing

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

More detailed information on population, household and dwelling projections is available on the Department of Planning Industry and Environment website at:

http://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/en-us/deliveringhomes/populationandhouseholdprojections.aspx

More information on homelessness is available on the DCJ website at:

http://www.housing.nsw.gov.au/Help+with+Housing/Homelessness/

For more information/statistics on DCJ clients by DCJ districts:

http://www.facs.nsw.gov.au/facs-statistics

The Productivity Commission’s report Housing Decisions of Older Australians is at:

https://www.pc.gov.au/research/completed/housing-decisions-older-australians

www.facs.nsw.gov.au