17
NFI AGM - May 9-13 New Flyer Industries TSX: NFI TSX: NFI.DB.U Forward Looking Statements: Our remarks and answers to your questions today may contain forward-looking statements relating to New Flyer Industries Inc. and related companies or to the environment in which they operate, which are based on their operations, estimates, forecasts and projections. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict, or are beyond New Flyer’s control. A number of important factors could cause actual outcomes and results to differ materially from those expressed in these forward-looking statements. These factors include those set forth in New Flyer’s Annual Information Form. New Flyer assumes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements to reflect new events or circumstances, except as required by applicable securities laws. All figures discussed today are in U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted. North America’s #1 Heavy-Duty Transit Bus Manufacturer and Parts Supplier

New Flyer Industries · UK’s largest Bus & Coach builder and world leader in midi-bus Strategic Rationale 10 Year Bus targeted at both Public & Private applications Lighter and

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Page 1: New Flyer Industries · UK’s largest Bus & Coach builder and world leader in midi-bus Strategic Rationale 10 Year Bus targeted at both Public & Private applications Lighter and

NFI AGM - May 9-13

New Flyer IndustriesTSX: NFI TSX: NFI.DB.U

Forward Looking Statements: Our remarks and answers to your questions today may contain forward-looking statements relating to New Flyer Industries Inc. and related companies or

to the environment in which they operate, which are based on their operations, estimates, forecasts and projections. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and

involve risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict, or are beyond New Flyer’s control. A number of important factors could cause actual outcomes and results to differ materially

from those expressed in these forward-looking statements. These factors include those set forth in New Flyer’s Annual Information Form. New Flyer assumes no obligation to update or

revise any forward-looking statements to reflect new events or circumstances, except as required by applicable securities laws. All figures discussed today are in U.S. dollars unless

otherwise noted.

North America’s #1 Heavy-Duty Transit Bus Manufacturer and Parts Supplier

Page 2: New Flyer Industries · UK’s largest Bus & Coach builder and world leader in midi-bus Strategic Rationale 10 Year Bus targeted at both Public & Private applications Lighter and

NFI AGM - May 9-13

Bus manufacturing plants in Manitoba and Minnesota and a Part

Fabrication plant in Elkhart. 2,200 employees

Parts Distribution Centers in Manitoba, Ontario, Kentucky and California

Service Center in Arnprior with another being established in LA

New Product Development Center in Winnipeg.

Over 32,500 buses delivered, with 24,000 still in operation

Offer heavy-duty buses from 35’, 40’, to 60’ articulating buses.

Commence 30’and 35’ medium-duty (MiDi) bus manufacturing in 2014

Long standing tradition as the #1

Heavy-Duty Transit Bus manufacturer in Canada & US

2

Founded in Winnipeg in 1930. Market Leader in Technology and Innovation

NFI’s next generation Transit Bus with advanced

styling that is lighter, quieter and more fuel efficient.

First delivery was in 2010. Targeting >90% of bus

production for 2103

Page 3: New Flyer Industries · UK’s largest Bus & Coach builder and world leader in midi-bus Strategic Rationale 10 Year Bus targeted at both Public & Private applications Lighter and

NFI AGM - May 9-13

Source: New Flyer Database & Management Estimates based on EUs delivered

Industry Leading Market Share in both Bus & Parts

32% Transit Bus Market Share ~25% Pro Forma Parts Market Share

April 2012

Daimler announced Orion to close by YE2012.

NYCT & Seattle bus contracts assigned to NFI.

March 2013

NFI announces the acquisition of Orion

Parts Business from Daimler Bus

3

New Flyer18%

Orion7%

NABI9%

Gillig9%

EngDealers8%

Locals7%

Muncie6%

Nova6%

Truck5%

Suppliers Direct

4%

MCI4%

Neopart3%

Other14%

32%

29%

7%

18%

10%

4%

Other

Page 4: New Flyer Industries · UK’s largest Bus & Coach builder and world leader in midi-bus Strategic Rationale 10 Year Bus targeted at both Public & Private applications Lighter and

NFI AGM - May 9-13

NFI backlog provides visibility of Near-to-Medium term sales

Backlog has now started to recover

4

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

Firm Deferred Order Firm Option Deferred Order Options

NFI plan maintains a Line Entry production rate of 36 EUs/Production week

Backlog proved crucial in period of

low Industry activity

Page 5: New Flyer Industries · UK’s largest Bus & Coach builder and world leader in midi-bus Strategic Rationale 10 Year Bus targeted at both Public & Private applications Lighter and

NFI AGM - May 9-13

NFI Financial Performance (US$)

Adversely impacted by Volume & Price during economic crisis

Parts

Bus

5

Sales Adjusted EBITDA

804865

992

878810

754 768

83

96

108

106

116

119 125

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Q1

LTM

7873 76 73

57

42 41

1720

2424

23

20 19

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1

LTM

Page 6: New Flyer Industries · UK’s largest Bus & Coach builder and world leader in midi-bus Strategic Rationale 10 Year Bus targeted at both Public & Private applications Lighter and

NFI AGM - May 9-13

New Flyer Strategy:

a diversified Full-Service Bus ManufacturerP

rivate

Pu

blic

Canada/US International

Bus OEM,

Parts &

Services

LEAN & Quality roadmap

Increase Strategic and In-Sourcing

Cost reduction and competiveness

Full scope offering: Bus, Parts & Services

Increase % of aftermarket

Migrate to new Xcelsior platform & launch MiDi

Expand beyond HD Transit and compete in more

than one market (product and/or geography)

Current or potential for leading market share

Opportunity for cost synergy based on scale (OpEx,

purchasing, and overhead) plus ability to leverage

R&D, technology and platforms

Vertical integration potential for key or strategic

value-added operations

6

1. Focus on Core Market/Business/Operations

2. Seek Diversification & Growth

3. Investment/Acquisition Criteria

Page 7: New Flyer Industries · UK’s largest Bus & Coach builder and world leader in midi-bus Strategic Rationale 10 Year Bus targeted at both Public & Private applications Lighter and

NFI AGM - May 9-13

Committed to propulsion options & technology leadership

Focused on optimizing New Flyer’s next-gen Xcelsior platform

NF eBus

Maiden Voyage:

Apr 20-12, 1:05 pm

Diesel

Hybrid

Gas

Trolley

Fuel Cells

All-Electric

eAccessories

Natural Gas

NF eAccesory Bus

Delivered to MN Metro

July 2012

NF Hydrogen FC Fleet

Delivered fleet to BC Transit

Jan 2010

NF CNG Propulsion

First delivered

in 1994

NF Hybrid Bus

First delivered

in 2000

NF eTrolley Bus

First delivered in

1993

7

Page 8: New Flyer Industries · UK’s largest Bus & Coach builder and world leader in midi-bus Strategic Rationale 10 Year Bus targeted at both Public & Private applications Lighter and

NFI AGM - May 9-13

NFI transformed to Common Share Structure

Reducing Leverage and Interest Costs

8

2.00

2.20

2.40

2.60

2.80

3.00

3.20

3.40

3.60

3.80

4.00

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1

IDS Debt Bachelor BondsSenior Term Loan RevolverConvertible Debenture Total leverage ratio

Total Debt (US $million)

• $65M Convertible

Debenture issued in Jun-

12. Proceeds used to

redeem Bach Bonds/IDS

Debt in August 2012.

Convert price $10/share.

• $90M Revolver facility

used to manage working

capital fluctuations

($49M outstanding)

$122M Senior term loan @

rate of LIBOR plus

applicable margin.

Expires in Apr-14.

• 49.3M shares outstanding. 6.2 M shares to be added from Treasury once full Marcopolo investment complete.

• NFI Board/Management currently owns 1.1M Shares (or 2.3%).

Interest on Bach Bonds/IDS Debt = 14% vs Converts = 6.25%

Page 9: New Flyer Industries · UK’s largest Bus & Coach builder and world leader in midi-bus Strategic Rationale 10 Year Bus targeted at both Public & Private applications Lighter and

NFI AGM - May 9-13

0.9

1.5

2.22.5

3.2

3.8

0

1

2

3

4

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Significant improvements made in Operations

Focused management on both cultural and physical change

CME Annual LEAN Assessment (out of 5)

341

403

320

245299

262 241209 218 236 238

189 175 187 183225 203

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

9

Substantially reduced Bus WIP (EUs)

Page 10: New Flyer Industries · UK’s largest Bus & Coach builder and world leader in midi-bus Strategic Rationale 10 Year Bus targeted at both Public & Private applications Lighter and

NFI AGM - May 9-13

-6.00%

-4.00%

-2.00%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Annual Ridership % Chg YOY

US Bus Total US Total All Modes CDN Total All Modes

$0.00

$10.00

$20.00

$30.00

$40.00

$50.00

$60.00

$70.00

$80.00

$90.00

$100.00

$110.00

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Crude Oil Price - Annual Average

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4E

% C

han

ge

vs S

ame

Las

t Yea

r

USA Quarterly State Tax Revenue YOY % Change

Personal Income Tax Corporate Income Tax General Sales Tax

Macro-economic Fundamentals continue to Improve

Which bodes well for investment in public transit

10

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F

US CA

US Qtrly State Tax Revenue [YOY % Change]

Monthly Unemployment RateAnnual Avg Crude Oil Price - [US$]

Average Age of Bus [Yrs]

Annual Transit Ridership % Chg YOY

2012201120102009

Source: The Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute State Revenue Reports

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (US) ; Stats Canada (CAD)

201220112010

Source: http://inflationdata.com/inflation/inflation_rate/historical_oil_prices_table.asp

Source: http://www.apta.com/resources/statistics/Documents/FactBook/2012-

Fact-Book-Appendix-A.pdf

Source: http://www.apta.com/resources/statistics/Pages/ridershipreport.aspx

Page 11: New Flyer Industries · UK’s largest Bus & Coach builder and world leader in midi-bus Strategic Rationale 10 Year Bus targeted at both Public & Private applications Lighter and

NFI AGM - May 9-13

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

12-J

an

-09

12-F

eb-0

9

12-M

ar-

09

12-A

pr-

09

12-M

ay-0

9

12-J

un

-09

12-J

ul-09

12-A

ug-0

9

12-S

ep-0

9

12-O

ct-

09

12-N

ov-0

9

12-D

ec-0

9

12-J

an

-10

12-F

eb-1

0

12-M

ar-

10

12-A

pr-

10

12-M

ay-1

0

12-J

un

-10

12-J

ul-10

12-A

ug-1

0

12-S

ep-1

0

12-O

ct-

10

12-N

ov-1

0

12-D

ec-1

0

12-J

an

-11

12-F

eb-1

1

12-M

ar-

11

12-A

pr-

11

12-M

ay-1

1

12-J

un

-11

12-J

ul-11

12-A

ug-1

1

12-S

ep-1

1

12-O

ct-

11

12-N

ov-1

1

12-D

ec-1

1

12-J

an

-12

12-F

eb-1

2

12-M

ar-

12

12-A

pr-

12

12-M

ay-1

2

12-J

un

-12

12-J

ul-12

12-A

ug-1

2

12-S

ep-1

2

12-O

ct-

12

12-N

ov-1

2

12-D

ec-1

2

12-J

an

-13

12-F

eb-1

3

12-M

ar-

13

12-A

pr-

13

Ongoing Bids Submitted Bids Forecast

The NFI Bid Universe has shown Significant Recovery

5 year total >15,200 EUs. Active Opportunities >7,300 EUs

11

EUs Bids in Progress

EUs for Bids Submitted

Units forecasted to come out for Competition

Federal Stimulus investments

contributed to surge in 2010

Reflects increased

competitions in process

Page 12: New Flyer Industries · UK’s largest Bus & Coach builder and world leader in midi-bus Strategic Rationale 10 Year Bus targeted at both Public & Private applications Lighter and

NFI AGM - May 9-13

NFI Book-to-Bill Ratio (Intake/Deliveries) has rebounded

Now back to >100% of LTM deliveries

12

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

LTM New Orders (EUs) LTM Deliveries (EUs) LTM Order Intake / Deliveries

Page 13: New Flyer Industries · UK’s largest Bus & Coach builder and world leader in midi-bus Strategic Rationale 10 Year Bus targeted at both Public & Private applications Lighter and

NFI AGM - May 9-13

North America’s largest Heavy Duty

Transit Bus and Parts company

+

13

UK’s largest Bus & Coach builder

and world leader in midi-bus

Strategic Rationale

10 Year Bus targeted at both Public & Private

applications

Lighter and quieter than Heavy-Duty buses with

materially different operating economics

Enhanced styling and passenger comfort

Prototypes are currently being manufactured with

testing in Q2-Q3 2013. Production build to

commence in Dec-13

Launched a JV with Alexander Dennis Limited in 2012

A medium-duty (MiDi) Bus for North America

Page 14: New Flyer Industries · UK’s largest Bus & Coach builder and world leader in midi-bus Strategic Rationale 10 Year Bus targeted at both Public & Private applications Lighter and

NFI AGM - May 9-13

Page 15: New Flyer Industries · UK’s largest Bus & Coach builder and world leader in midi-bus Strategic Rationale 10 Year Bus targeted at both Public & Private applications Lighter and

NFI AGM - May 9-13

Marcopolo S.A. strategic Investment in NFI - February 2013

Launches a strategic relationship and provides growth capital to NFI

North America’s largest Heavy Duty

Transit Bus and Parts company

+The world’s 2nd largest Bus builder

delivering over 35,000 buses annually

Provides significant equity capital to NFI at an attractive price (Approx 26% premium to 60-day VWAP)

Enhances NFI’s financial flexibility to further pursue growth and diversification opportunities

Strategic value of knowledgeable, sophisticated, like-minded investor

Opportunity to strengthen North American market position and competitiveness through commercial

agreements with a leading global bus manufacturer

Access to MP products, know-how, relationships and technology sharing to enhance NFI’s product

offerings and profitability

Opportunity to seek markets outside North America where NFI intellectual property may be exported

15

Strategic Rationale

Page 16: New Flyer Industries · UK’s largest Bus & Coach builder and world leader in midi-bus Strategic Rationale 10 Year Bus targeted at both Public & Private applications Lighter and

NFI AGM - May 9-13

NFI Strategic Investment in expanding Aftermarket - March 2013

acquisition of Orion’s Parts business from Daimler Bus

North America’s #1 Bus

Aftermarket Parts Business

+North America’s #4 Bus

Aftermarket Parts Business

Strengthens NFI leadership position as the largest provider of aftermarket parts in the North American

transit bus industry. Pro-forma 25% bus parts market share.

Broadens exposure to large transit agencies, and further enhances NFI’s relationship with various

transit authorities

Highly attractive revenue stream from the proprietary parts business serving over 10,000 Orion buses

currently in service

Immediately accretive to earnings and cash flow with added value through combined scale, footprint

and overhead utilization

Significant potential for incremental growth by leveraging scale and broader product offering to

increase penetration into North America’s installed fleet of all OEM makes and models

16

Strategic Rationale

Page 17: New Flyer Industries · UK’s largest Bus & Coach builder and world leader in midi-bus Strategic Rationale 10 Year Bus targeted at both Public & Private applications Lighter and

NFI AGM - May 9-13

NFI Investment Thesis

17

Predictable cash flow business model, conservative financing structure, relatively low CAPEX needs

Income instrument with Yield currently at approx 6.0% (annual dividend at C$0.585/share. Distributions

have been paid for 91 consecutive months (since IPO). Management believes dividend is sustainable.

#1 Market Share of delivered buses and #1 Market Share of aftermarket bus part sales

Market Innovation leader with the broadest green product offering

High quality diversified customer base generating repeat business in replacement industry

Experienced Executive team with a track record and significant OpEx and LEAN experience

#1 Manufacturer of Heavy Duty Transit Bus Manufacturer in North America

Conversion to Common Share Structure complete. Lower leverage & Interest Cost

Prospects for Growth

Transit is an essential service with an aging US fleet (avg age >7.8 yrs vs. avg target life of 12 yrs)

After three years of a very difficult market, now experiencing record bid activity (Active bids >7,300 EUs,

Bid Universe >15,200 EUs) with loss of one competitor (Orion).

NFI backlog has returned to growth ($3.3B and 7,527 EUs) Book-to-Bill Ratio is recovering (LTM is

211% vs 31% for 2012 Q1 LTM)

JV launched with Alexander Dennis to introduce MiDi bus in North America. Marcopolo 19.99%

Strategic Investment in NFI with operational MOU. Parts and service offering business continues to

grow through acquisition of Orion Bus Parts Distribution business.