New Local Climate Outlook New Local Climate Outlook Products from the NWSProducts from the NWS

Andrea BairNOAA/NWS Western Region Headquarters

Climate Services Program Manager

OutlineOutline

Introduce the new Local 3-Month Temperature Outlook (L3MTO)

Visit the new website Product Benefits Product Limitations Future Local Climate Products

L3MTO FactsL3MTO Facts

The NWS is downscaling/transforming Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC) large scale 3-month temperature outlooks to specific station outlooks

The L3MTO is:• Produced centrally at CPC • Disseminated via local WFO climate websites• Released simultaneously with CPC’s 3-month

outlook product suite (3rd Thursday every month)

• Produced for approximately 10 sites per WFO, or about 1150 sites nationwide – can potentially increase to ~4,000 sites

Requirements and Actions for Requirements and Actions for Developing the ProductDeveloping the Product

Scientifically Sound• reliable data source• the simplest forecasting procedure• independent data used in forecast tests • sufficiently testing the forecast process

Operationally Efficient• Efficient production procedure• Appropriate training • Outreach support and materials

Customer Friendly• Wide variety of components• Helpful text and explanations for interpretation

How the Product was DevelopedHow the Product was Developed

CD data Station data

Regression Analysis1971-2000

1994-2003 Trend Significance

Station Forecast Solution

Verification filter

Annual routine:

CPC CD forecastMean and St. Dev.

Monthly routine:

NoSignificant?

Bivariate statisticsRegression Coefficients

Intercept Adjustment

Yes

SufficientScore?

Forecast data

Distribution and Display

Yes

Climatology Data

No

December - January - February1971-2000

y = 0.9166x + 8.5689

R2 = 0.9581

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

20 25 30 35 40 45CD43 Temperature (deg F)

TU

L T

emp

erat

ure

(d

eg F

)

y = mx + b (where m = slope and b = y-intercept)

33.033.0

38.838.8

Graph Courtesy of Nicole Kempf

Outlook EvaluationOutlook Evaluation

Access to the outlook evaluation is available on every display of the L3MTO

This tool can be used for both the national and the local 3-month temperature outlooks

Evaluation statistics can be computed for any combination of 3-month periods and/or years during 1994 to present (2003)

Allows the user to select different types of skill scores

Questions and FeedbackQuestions and Feedback

The “Questions and Feedback” tab links users to an online form to provide comments

User feedback is important, as this product will be evolving based on this feedback.

The L3MTO is now Available on The L3MTO is now Available on all WFO Websitesall WFO Websites

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/wrh/forecastoffice_tab.php

L3MTO BenefitsL3MTO Benefits

More spatial detail – higher resolution outlooks

The L3TMO suite provides multiple presentation formats to accommodate a wide range of users

Includes helpful resources for interpretation

Available locally, on all WFO webpages; higher visibility

L3MTO LimitationsL3MTO Limitations

Does not provide detail about the month-to-month or day-to-day variability

It’s a probabilistic forecast• more challenging to explain

• The probability of an exact temperature occurring is nearly zero!

Additional local information may be needed to supplement the product.

Because this product is an extension of the national 3-month outlook to the local level, it will naturally inherit the national product’s skill

What About Precipitation?What About Precipitation?

Precipitation is a much more complicated element to downscale

The precipitation downscaling methodology is under development

The product’s webpage design will be identical to the L3MTO design

Implementation is included in the long term planning for future local climate products

ENSO Based CompositesENSO Based Composites

Initially will include temperature and precipitation

Eventually other parameters will be added – WFOs will choose

ENSO based composites will be combined with CPC’s Nino 3.4 SST forecast – if the results are significant, then a forecast will accompany the L3MTO.

Thank You!!Thank You!!

Please visit any WFO website to view these new products.