New Mexico State University USDA-ERS Cooperative

Agreement Research

Rhonda Skaggs, Ph.D.

Dept. of Ag Economics & Ag Business

NMSULas Cruces, NM

History

• Research since 1999 – 2 agreements

• NMSU located in Las Cruces, NM– Proximity to Santa Teresa, NM

• Four master’s students supported– Diana Lopez Mitchell (MS)– René Acuña (MS)– Christie Guinn (MAG)– Cristina Carmona (MAG)

Collaboration with…

• New Mexico Department of Agriculture

• New Mexico Livestock Board

• Unión Ganadera Regional de Chihuahua

• Universidad Autónoma de Chihuahua

2003 Distribution of Imported Mexican Calves (1.2 million animals)

Hidalgo TX8%

Laredo TX6%

Nogales AZ13%

Presidio TX21%

San Luis AZ4%

Columbus NM6%

Del Rio TX9%

Santa Teresa NM

21%

Eagle Pass TX4%

Douglas AZ8%

#1 – Econometric Analysis of Cattle Movements from Mexico to

the U.S. (D. Lopez Mitchell)

• Need for information on annual flow of calves by port & by month:– Allocation of inspection services and personnel– Budgeting

• Development of models to explain & predict Mexican calf imports– Precipitation (seasonality)– U.S. prices

Calves Imported at Santa Teresa, NM1994 - 2003

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Rainfall - Chihuahua 1994 - 2003

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Cattle Price Ratio, 1994 - 2003

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Calves Imported at Santa Teresa, NM

• When the price ratio , calf imports

• When rainfall in Chihuahua , calf imports

• Model explained 75% of variability

Results for Other Ports-of-Entry

• Eagle Pass, TX – 60%• Del Rio, TX – 68%• Hidalgo, TX – 34%• Laredo, TX – 71%• Presidio, TX – 68%• Columbus, NM – 66%

• San Luis, AZ – 60%• Douglas, AZ – 63%• Nogales, AZ – 79%

#2 - Identification of Origins & Destinations of Imported Mexican

Cattle (R. Acuña)• Initiated Spring 2001• Interest in livestock traceability

– Europe, Canada– Food & Mouth Disease, BSE

• Data for imported Mexican calves– Santa Teresa / San Jerónimo

Sources of Data …– Origins of calves in Mexico

• Certificado Zoosanitario; Unión Ganadera• 900 observation – The “Ins”

– Destinations of calves in the U.S.• Unión Ganadera, bills of lading• 4,025 observations – The “Outs”

• New Mexico Livestock Board• 2,278 observations – Inspection certificates

Procedures

1. Create database in MS-Access 2. Convert data files 3. Import data to Arc-View

4. Join data for the imported calves with geographic data

• States, counties, zip codes, municipios

5. Derive sums, maps, tables• Tuberculin number is common between New Mexico

inspection form and Mexican certificado zoosanitario

#3 - Overview of North American Cattle Trade (C. Guinn)

• North American Beef and Cattle Trade: A Current Perspective– Publication describes status of US-Mexico-

Canada beef & cattle trade

– NM AES technical report

• Live Cattle Imports by Port of Entry from Mexico to the United States: Data & Models

– Update Lopez Mitchell work– Models explanatory power

– As US-Mexico live cattle price ratio , imports – Rainfall coefficients not different from zero– NM AES research report

– Currently revising existing US livestock sector model to better capture Mexican imports

Current model revision work

• Animal products branch quarterly livestock model – (R. Stillman)

• This model treated cattle & beef imports as exogenous

• We are trying to endogenize the imports

#4 – The Chihuahua, Mexico Export Cattle Industry

(C. Carmona)

• Procedures for Exporting Cattle from Chihuahua, Mexico to the USA – Detailed description of Mexican policy

environment, regulations & current procedures for exporting cattle to the US.

– NM AES technical report

Certificate of Ovariectomy

“Spaying”Zoosanitary Certificate

Tuberculosis and

Brucellosis Test

Exportation to United States

Certificate of Herd

of Origin

Cattle Movement

Permit

• Results of a Survey of Cattle Exporters in Chihuahua, Mexico– Develop information for the population of

cattle exporters in Chihuahua, Mexico – Provide an overview of how Mexican cattle

exporters perceive US-Mexico cattle trade

– Random sample survey– Data from 143 cattle exporters– Interviews during Summer 2004 – UACh collaboration

• Results of a Survey of Cattle Exporters in Chihuahua, Mexico

√ Mean cattle exported = 549

√ Exports ranged from < 50 - 3,000 head

√ Export to US for better prices, ability to sell large lots

√ Avg. 18 years of exporting to US

√ 80% have received government subsidies (genetics)

Survey of Chihuahua Cattle Exporters

• Pessimism about Mexican market• Predict more US sanitary barriers

• Reasons for involvement in livestock industry– Tradition, culture, lifestyle, social status– Enterprise diversification

• Developing producer/exporter typology – W 192

Other activities…

• Effect of US brand laws on imports of Mexican cattle

– C. Guinn

• Development of an improved bill of lading for use at NM ports of entry

– C. Carmona

Thank You & Gracias!

Rhonda Skaggs, Ph.D.Professor, Agricultural Experiment Station

Dept. of Ag Economics & Ag BusinessBox 30003 MSC 3169

New Mexico State UniversityLas Cruces, NM 88003

Tel: 505-646-1344 or 505-646-2401Fax: 505-646-3808

Email: rskaggs@nmsu.edu