New Q3 2014 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Canada - Experis · 2015. 3. 2. · Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Canada SMART JOB NO: 07264 QuARTeR 3 2014 CLIeNT: MANpOweR SuBJeCT:

SMARTJOBNO: 07264 QuARTeR32014

CLIeNT: MANpOweR

SuBJeCT: MeOSCANAdAeNgLIShQ314–A4–2COLOuR

SIZe: uSLeTTeR

dOCNAMe: 07264MpCp_CANeNg_2COL_Q314 pAge: 1

ARTwORkSIZe: 279.4mmx215.9mm dATe:28.05.14

87ChARTeRhOuSeSTReeT•LONdONeC1M6hJ•TeL+44(0)2073241077

Manpower Employment Outlook SurveyCanada

A Manpower Research Report

Q3 2014

Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Canada


CLIeNT: MANpOweR


SIZe: uSLeTTeR




Contents

Canada Employment Outlook 1Regional Comparisons

Sector Comparisons

Global Employment Outlook 11International Comparisons – Americas

International Comparisons – Asia Pacific

International Comparisons – EMEA

About the Survey 21

About ManpowerGroupTM 22Throughout this report, we use the term “Net Employment Outlook”. This figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating total employment to increase, and subtracting from this, the percentage expecting to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter. The result of this calculation is the Net Employment Outlook.

Q3/

14

1


CLIeNT: MANpOweR


SIZe: uSLeTTeR




Canada Employment OutlookThe Manpower Employment Outlook Survey for the third quarter 2014 was conducted by interviewing a representative sample of over 1,900 employers in Canada.

All survey participants were asked, “How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of September 2014 as compared to the current quarter?”

Canadian employers report upbeat hiring plans for Quarter 3 2014. While 20% of employers expect to increase staffing levels, 4% anticipate a decrease and 74% forecast no change, resulting in a Net Employment Outlook of +16%.

Once the data is adjusted to allow for seasonal variation, the Outlook stands at +10%. Employers report relatively stable hiring prospects both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year.

Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know Net EmploymentOutlook

SeasonallyAdjusted

% % % % % %

3rd Quarter 2013 21 6 71 2 15 9

4th Quarter 2013 16 8 74 2 8 10

1st Quarter 2014 13 8 78 1 5 11

2nd Quarter 2014 16 4 78 2 12 9

3rd Quarter 2014 20 4 74 2 16 10

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.

Net Employment OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14

From this point forward, all data discussed in the commentary is seasonally adjusted, unless stated otherwise.

Net EmploymentOutlook

SeasonallyAdjusted

Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know

% % % %%%

Construction 28 2 66 264 16

Education 20 6 70 14 154

Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 17 3 78 2 14 11

Manufacturing – Durables 25 2 72 1 23 16

Manufacturing – Non-Durables 10 4 83 3 06

Mining 17 4 78 1 813

Public Administration 30 1 66 29 173Services 17 5 77 1 12 8

Transportation & Public Utilities 29 2 69 0 27 20Wholesale & Retail Trade 21 5 71 3 16 11


2


CLIeNT: MANpOweR


SIZe: uSLeTTeR




Regional Comparisons

Atlantic Canada +25 (14)%Employers anticipate a steady hiring pace in the July-September time frame, reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +14%. Hiring intentions improve by three percentage points when compared with the previous quarter and are five percentage points stronger year-over-year.Employers forecast payroll gains in nine of the 10 industry sectors during the next three months. The brightest hiring prospects are reported in the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector where the Net Employment Outlook of +39% is the strongest since Quarter 4 2007. Education sector employers also anticipate a brisk hiring pace, reporting an Outlook of +36% which is the strongest since the sectors where first analyzed within region in Quarter 1 2004. An active labour market is forecast in the Public Administration sector where employers report the strongest Outlook since Quarter 3 2008, standing at +28%, while solid job gains are expected in the Manufacturing − Durables sector with an Outlook of +22%. Services sector employers report an upbeat Outlook of +17% and the Outlook for the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector is +16%. Elsewhere, Manufacturing − Non-Durables sector employers report the weakest hiring plans since sectors where first analyzed within region in Quarter 1 2004 with a gloomy Outlook of -16%.Hiring intentions improve in seven of the 10 industry sectors when compared with Quarter 2 2014. The most noteworthy increases of 33 and 25 percentage points are reported in the Education sector and the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector, respectively. Public Administration sector employers report a 21 percentage point improvement while an increase of 16 percentage points is reported in the Transportation & Public Utilities sector. However, hiring plans weaken in three sectors,

most notably by 17 and 16 percentage points in the Mining sector and the Manufacturing – Non-Durables sector, respectively.Year-over-year, employers also report stronger hiring prospects in seven of the 10 industry sectors. The most notable improvements are by 43 percentage points in the Education sector and 33 percentage points in the Construction sector. The Public Administration sector Outlook is 26 percentage points stronger and employers report an improvement of 12 percentage points in the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector. Meanwhile, employers report weaker hiring plans in three sectors. Noteworthy declines of 25 and 16 percentage points are reported in the Manufacturing − Non-Durables sector and the Mining sector, respectively.Payrolls are expected to increase in all seven areas during Quarter 3 2014. St. John’s employers report robust hiring plans with an Outlook of +31%. Steady job gains are forecast for Cape Breton Area and Moncton, with Outlooks of +18% and +17%, respectively, while the Fredericton Outlook stands at +16%. Quarter-over-quarter, employers report improved hiring prospects in five areas, with the most notable increases of 17 and 14 percentage points reported for St. John’s and Saint John, respectively. However, hiring plans weaken in two areas − Moncton and Halifax – with Outlook declines of five and four percentage points, respectively.When compared with Quarter 3 2013, hiring intentions improve in four of the seven areas. The Saint John Outlook is 27 percentage points stronger while employers in St. John’s and Cape Breton Area report improvements of 21 and nine percentage points, respectively. Elsewhere, hiring plans weaken in three areas, most notably by 14 percentage points in Halifax.


SeasonallyAdjusted


% % % %%%


All Industries 29 4 66 251 14

Education 36 7 50 29 367



Manufacturing – Non-Durables 6 11 83 0 -16-5

Mining 33 7 60 0 1026



3


CLIeNT: MANpOweR


SIZe: uSLeTTeR




Ontario +14 (8)%Some payroll gains are forecast for the upcoming quarter with employers reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +8%. Hiring intentions are unchanged when compared with the previous quarter and remain relatively stable year-over-year.Job gains are expected in nine of the 10 industry sectors during the July-September time frame. Transportation & Public Utilities sector employers report the most optimistic hiring plans with an Outlook of +20%. Hopeful hiring prospects are also reported in two sectors where the Outlook stands at +17% – the Public Administration sector and the Manufacturing − Durables sector. Elsewhere, the Outlook stands at +11% in the Education sector while employers in both the Construction sector and the Services sector report Outlooks of +9%. However, Mining sector employers forecast negative hiring activity with an Outlook of -3%.Hiring intentions improve in five of the 10 industry sectors when compared with the previous quarter, most notably by four percentage points in both the Manufacturing − Durables sector and the Transportation & Public Utilities sector. Elsewhere, employers report weaker hiring plans in three sectors. Hiring prospects decline by six and five percentage points in the Public Administration sector and the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector, respectively.Year-over-year, the Outlook declines in six of the 10 industry sectors. The Construction sector Outlook is eight percentage points weaker while employers report decreases of six and five percentage points in the Mining sector and the Manufacturing − Non-Durables sector, respectively. Meanwhile, hiring prospects strengthen in four of the 10 industry sectors. The most noteworthy increase of 13 percentage points is reported in the Manufacturing − Durables sector, while the

Outlook for the Education sector improves by eight percentage points.Job seekers can expect positive hiring activity in 23 of the 24 areas during the next three months. The most optimistic Outlook of +21% is reported in Brampton, followed closely by Welland/Port Colborne with an Outlook of +20%. Upbeat hiring activity is forecast for Peterborough and Barrie, with Outlooks of +18% and +17%, respectively. Hamilton employers report an Outlook of +13% while Outlooks stand at +12% in both Kingston and London. Meanwhile, Windsor employers forecast a decline in payrolls with an Outlook of -5%.When compared with the previous quarter, hiring plans improve in 10 of the 24 areas. The most noteworthy improvement of 15 percentage points is reported in Peterborough. Considerable increases of nine percentage points are reported in both Welland/Port Colborne and Kingston, while the London Outlook is eight percentage points stronger. Elsewhere, Outlooks decline in 12 areas. The most notable decreases of 10 and nine percentage points are reported in Northumberland County and Windsor, respectively. Kitchener/Cambridge Area employers report an eight percentage point decline and the St. Catharines Outlook is seven percentage points weaker. Hiring prospects are stronger in 12 of the 24 areas year-over-year. Welland/Port Colborne employers report the most notable improvement of 16 percentage points while Outlooks are 13 and 12 percentage points stronger in the Hamilton and Kingston areas, respectively. Meanwhile, hiring intentions decline in eight areas. The Mississauga Outlook is 20 percentage points weaker while decreases of 17 and 12 percentage points are reported in Windsor and Kitchener/Cambridge Area, respectively.


SeasonallyAdjusted


% % % %%%



Education 17 5 75 12 113




Mining 12 3 84 1 -39




4


CLIeNT: MANpOweR


SIZe: uSLeTTeR




Quebec +17 (9)%Job seekers can expect a cautiously optimistic hiring pace in the July-September time frame with employers reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +9%. Hiring prospects improve by three percentage points when compared with the previous quarter and increase by four percentage points year-over-year.

Employers in nine of the 10 industry sectors anticipate payroll gains during Quarter 3 2014. The most favourable hiring intentions are reported in the Education sector and the Transportation & Public Utilities sector, with Outlooks of +18% and +17%, respectively. Manufacturing − Durables sector employers forecast a steady hiring pace with an Outlook of +16%, while the Outlook for the Public Administration sector stands at +14%. Respectable job gains are expected in the Services sector where employers report an Outlook of +12% while employers in the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector report encouraging signs for job seekers with an Outlook of +10%. However, employers in the Manufacturing − Non-Durables sector forecast a decline in payrolls with an Outlook of -5%.

When compared with Quarter 2 2014, hiring intentions weaken in six of the 10 industry sectors. The most notable decline of four percentage points is reported by employers in the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector. Elsewhere, Outlooks are three percentage points weaker in both the Mining sector and the Services sector. Meanwhile, stronger hiring plans are reported in four sectors. The Public Administration sector Outlook improves by 13 percentage points and the Manufacturing − Durables sector Outlook is 11 percentage points stronger. Increases of nine and eight percentage points are reported in the Transportation & Public Utilities sector and the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector, respectively.

Year-over-year, the employers report stronger hiring intentions in six of the 10 industry sectors. A steep

increase of 23 percentage points is reported for the Public Administration sector while Services sector employers report an improvement of 10 percentage points. Hiring plans are eight percentage points stronger in the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector and improve by seven percentage points in both the Manufacturing − Durables sector and the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector. Elsewhere, employers report weaker hiring prospects in three sectors. Outlooks decline by 11 and eight percentage points in the Transportation & Public Utilities sector and the Education sector, respectively, while a decrease of six percentage points is reported by Manufacturing − Non-Durables sector employers.

Seasonally adjusted data is available for four of the five areas in Quebec, but figures for Laval (*) are not seasonally adjusted.

Job seekers can expect positive hiring opportunities in four of the five areas during the next three months. The strongest hiring climate is expected in Quebec City with an Outlook of +13%. Employers report cautiously optimistic hiring plans in both the Eastern Townships (formerly Sherbrooke) and Laval* with Outlooks of +10%. However, Monteregie (formerly Granby) employers expect payrolls to decline, reporting an Outlook of -3%.

Hiring intentions improve in all five areas when compared with Quarter 2 2014, most notably by seven and four percentage points in the Eastern Townships (formerly Sherbrooke) and Monteregie (formerly Granby), respectively.

Year-over-year comparison is available for four of the five areas. Outlooks strengthen in three areas, with increases of nine percentage points in both the Eastern Townships (formerly Sherbrooke) and Montreal and a five percentage point improvement in Quebec City. However, the Outlook for Monteregie (formerly Granby) declines by 17 percentage points.


SeasonallyAdjusted


% % % %%%



Education 18 9 73 9 180



Manufacturing – Non-Durables 3 0 94 3 -53

Mining 19 7 74 0 112



5


CLIeNT: MANpOweR


SIZe: uSLeTTeR




Western Canada +19 (15)%With a Net Employment Outlook of +15%, employers expect the steady hiring pace to continue through the July-September time frame. Hiring intentions are unchanged when compared with Quarter 2 2014 and remain relatively stable year-over-year.

Job seekers can expect positive hiring opportunities in all 10 industry sectors during Quarter 3 2014. The brightest labour market is forecast by Construction sector employers who report an Outlook of +31%. An active hiring climate is anticipated in the Manufacturing − Durables sector where the Outlook stands at +22%. Elsewhere, upbeat hiring plans are evident with Outlooks of +19% for the Mining sector and +16% for the Transportation & Public Utilities sector. Employers in two sectors report Outlooks of +15% − the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector and the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector – while the Education sector Outlook stands at +14%. However, the Services sector Outlook of +10% matches the weakest outlook since the sectors where first analyzed within region in Quarter 1 2004, last reported in Quarter 1 2013.

Hiring prospects improve in seven of the 10 industry sectors when compared with Quarter 2 2014. Manufacturing − Durables sector employers report a five percentage point increase while the Public Administration sector Outlook is three percentage points stronger. Meanwhile, employers report weaker hiring plans in two sectors, including the Education sector with a four percentage point Outlook decline.

Year-over-year, Outlooks improve in six of the 10 industry sectors. The most noteworthy increase of 11 percentage points is reported in the Manufacturing − Durables

sector, while hiring prospects are four percentage points stronger in both the Manufacturing − Non-Durables sector and the Mining sector. However, hiring intentions weaken in three sectors, including the Transportation & Public Utilities sector and the Services sector, with declines of 14 and four percentage points, respectively.

Positive hiring activity is anticipated in all 11 areas during the forthcoming quarter. The most robust hiring prospects are reported in Red Deer and Edmonton, with Outlooks of +32% and +31%, respectively. Active labour markets are also expected in Richmond-Delta, where the Outlook is +23%, and in both Calgary and Surrey with Outlooks of +21%. The most cautious Outlook of +4% is reported in Vancouver.

Quarter-over-quarter, employers in six of the 11 areas report stronger hiring intentions. The Red Deer Outlook improves by 20 percentage points, while Outlooks are nine percentage points stronger in both Saskatoon and Surrey. Elsewhere, Outlooks decline in three areas including Winnipeg and Burnaby-Coquitlam, where decreases of 10 and six percentage points are reported, respectively.

Employers report weaker Outlooks in six of the 11 areas year-over-year. The Regina Outlook declines by a steep margin of 23 percentage points while employers in both Burnaby-Coquitlam and Vancouver report decreases of nine percentage points. However, hiring plans improve in four areas. The Red Deer Outlook is 15 percentage points stronger while Outlooks increase by nine and eight percentage points in Edmonton and Calgary, respectively.


SeasonallyAdjusted


% % % %%%



Education 20 6 67 14 147




Mining 19 3 78 0 1916




6


CLIeNT: MANpOweR


SIZe: uSLeTTeR




Sector ComparisonsJob seekers can expect positive hiring activity in nine of the 10 industry sectors during the upcoming quarter, according to employers. The healthiest hiring prospects are reported in the Transportation & Public Utilities sector where the Net Employment Outlook stands at +20%. Upbeat hiring prospects are also reported for the Public Administration sector with an Outlook of +17%, while Outlooks stand at +16% in both the Construction sector and the Manufacturing − Durables sector. Steady hiring activity is forecast for the Education sector where the Outlook is +15%, and in both the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector and the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector with Outlooks of +11%. Elsewhere, Manufacturing − Non-Durables sector employers forecast a flat hiring pace with an Outlook of 0%.

When compared with the previous quarter, hiring prospects strengthen in six of the 10 industry sectors. Manufacturing − Durables sector employers report an

increase of seven percentage points while Outlooks are six percentage points stronger in both the Public Administration sector and the Transportation & Public Utilities sector. Hiring intentions improve by three percentage points in both the Construction sector and the Education sector. Meanwhile, hiring prospects remain relatively stable or unchanged in four sectors.

Year-over-year, Outlooks improve in six of the 10 industry sectors. The most noteworthy increase of 11 percentage points is reported in the Manufacturing − Durables sector. Hiring plans are seven and five percentage points stronger in the Education sector and the Public Administration sector, respectively, and improve by four percentage points in the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector. However, hiring intentions decline in four sectors. The Manufacturing − Non-Durables sector Outlook is five percentage points weaker and Outlooks decline by four and three percentage points in the Mining sector and the Services sector, respectively.

0 35

Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

23 16

27 20

2616

60

13 8

29 17

12 8

1114

14 15

11 16

5 10 15 20 25 30

Construction

Education

Manufacturing – Durables

Manufacturing – Non-Durables

Mining

Public Administration

Services

Wholesale and Retail Trade

Finance, Insurance & Real Estate

Transportation & Public Utilities

7


CLIeNT: MANpOweR


SIZe: uSLeTTeR




A steady hiring pace is expected in Quarter 3 2014 with employers reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +16%. Hiring plans improve by three percentage

points when compared with the previous quarter and remain relatively stable year-over-year.

Construction +26 (16)%

-40-30-20-10

0102030405060



Education +14 (15)%Job seekers can expect to benefit from the strongest hiring pace since Quarter 2 2010 in the forthcoming quarter, with employers reporting a Net Employment

Outlook of +15%. The Outlook improves by three and seven percentage points quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, respectively.

Finance, Insurance & Real Estate +14 (11)%Employers forecast respectable payroll gains in the July-September time frame with a Net Employment Outlook of +11%. Hiring intentions remain relatively

stable quarter-over-quarter and improve by four percentage points year-over-year.

-40-30-20-10

010203040



-10

30

-505

10152025




8


CLIeNT: MANpOweR


SIZe: uSLeTTeR




A favourable hiring climate is likely in the next three months with employers reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +16%. Hiring plans improve both quarter-

over-quarter and year-over-year, increasing by seven and 11 percentage points, respectively.

Manufacturing – Durable Goods +23 (16)%

-20

-10

0

10

20

30



Manufacturing – Non-Durable Goods +6 (0)%Employers forecast a flat labour market for the second consecutive quarter, reporting a Net Employment

Outlook of 0%. When compared with Quarter 3 2013, the Outlook declines by five percentage points.

Mining +13 (8)%Some payroll gains are expected in Quarter 3 2014 with employers reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +8%. Hiring intentions remain relatively stable when

compared with the previous quarter but decline by four percentage points year-over-year.

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40



-30-20-10

01020304050



9


CLIeNT: MANpOweR


SIZe: uSLeTTeR




Job seekers can expect to benefit from the strongest hiring prospects since Quarter 4 2008 in the coming quarter, according to employers who report a Net

Employment Outlook of +17%. The Outlook strengthens by six percentage points quarter-over-quarter and improves by five percentage points year-over-year.

Public Administration +29 (17)%

-30-20-10

01020304050


Services +12 (8)%Some hiring opportunities are forecast for the July-September time frame with employers reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +8%. However, the Outlook is the weakest since Quarter 2 2010 following nearly two

years of gradual decline. Employers report relatively stable hiring plans when compared with the previous quarter. Year-over-year, the Outlook declines by three percentage points.

Transportation & Public Utilities +27 (20)%Employers anticipate a favourable hiring climate in the next three months, reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +20%. Hiring intentions are six percentage

points stronger quarter-over-quarter and remain relatively stable year-over-year.

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40



-30-20-10

01020304050




10


CLIeNT: MANpOweR


SIZe: uSLeTTeR




improve by two percentage points quarter-over-quarter and are three percentage points stronger year-over-year.

Respectable workforce gains are expected in the coming quarter with employers reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +11%. Hiring prospects

Wholesale & Retail Trade +16 (11)%

-30-20-10

01020304050



11


CLIeNT: MANpOweR


SIZe: uSLeTTeR




Global Employment OutlookThe Manpower Employment Outlook Survey for the third quarter of 2014 is based on interviews with over 65,000 employers in 42 countries and territories. The quarterly research conducted by ManpowerGroup measures employer hiring plans* in the world’s major labour markets. Employers were asked “How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of September 2014 as compared to the current quarter?”

According to the third-quarter research, opportunities for job seekers across global labour markets are expected to remain mostly positive with few overall signs that hiring intentions are decisively trending in one direction or another. Staffing levels are expected to increase in 37 of the 42 countries and territories, compared with 38 of 42 in the second quarter. The strongest hiring plans across the globe are reported by employers in India, Taiwan, Turkey, New Zealand and Singapore. The weakest—and only negative—third-quarter forecasts are reported by employers in Italy, Belgium, France and the Netherlands.

Overall, the forecasts are generally softer across the globe when compared to Quarter 2 2014, but mostly stronger in year-over-year comparisons. Outlooks strengthen in only 11 of 42 countries and territories when compared quarter-over-quarter and weaken in 24. When compared to Quarter 3 2013, hiring intentions strengthen in 32 countries and territories and decline in only six. Meanwhile, Outlooks in each of the G7 countries improve slightly or remain relatively stable in comparison with last year at this time.

Employers in each of the 10 countries surveyed in the Americas region forecast staffing level increases in the July-September time frame. When compared with the previous quarter, hiring plans improve in three countries but decline in seven. Year-over-year, the Net Employment Outlook is stronger in four countries, weaker in four and unchanged in two. Employers in Peru report the region’s most optimistic third-quarter hiring prospects. And for

the first time since the survey started in Brazil in Quarter 4 2009, employers there report the least optimistic Outlook in the Americas.

Payroll growth is expected in all eight Asia Pacific countries and territories during the next three months. Weaker Net Employment Outlooks are reported in five countries and territories when compared with the previous quarter, with employers in two countries reporting stronger hiring prospects. When compared to last year at this time, hiring plans improve in all eight countries and territories. The strongest labour market is expected in India, while for the ninth consecutive quarter the region’s weakest job opportunities are expected in Australia.

Employers in 19 of 24 countries in the Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA) region forecast job gains in the next three months. Hiring prospects improve in six countries quarter-over-quarter, but decline in 12. The Outlook is stronger in 20 countries when compared year-over-year, declines in two and is unchanged in two. Employers in Turkey report the most optimistic hiring intentions in the region. And for the fifth consecutive quarter, the region’s weakest Outlook is reported by employers in Italy.

Full survey results for each of the 42 countries and territories included in this quarter’s survey, plus regional and global comparisons, can be found at http://manpowergroup.com/press/meos_landing.cfm.

Examine and compare the latest survey data for all 42 countries and territories with the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Explorer. The Explorer makes it easy to navigate current hiring trends and historical labour market data. Visit http://www.manpowergroupsolutions.com/DataExplorer/.

The next Manpower Employment Outlook Survey will be released on 9 September 2014 to report hiring expectations for the fourth quarter of 2014.* Commentary is based on seasonally adjusted data where available.

Data is not seasonally adjusted for Bulgaria, Finland, Israel, Slovakia, Slovenia and Turkey.

Survey Respondents by Region

Asia Pacific24%

EMEA31%

Americas45%

For the Quarter 3 2014 research ManpowerGroup surveyed more than 65,000 human resources directors and senior hiring managers from public and private organizations worldwide: 45% of respondents come from 10 countries in the Americas; 24% from eight countries and territories across Asia Pacific; and 31% from 24 countries in EMEA.


12


CLIeNT: MANpOweR


SIZe: uSLeTTeR




13 (14)1

4 (2)1

-2 (-1)1

%

8 (9)1

14 (16)1

26 (25)1

16 (15)1

51 (46)1

20 (19)1

43 (38)1

16 (10)1

15 (14)1

18 (18)1

1 (-1)1

6 (5)1

0 (-1)1

2 (3)1

3 (2)1

7 (5)1

5 (2)1

6 (5)1

26

-5 (-8)1

-3 (-1)1

-2 (-1)1

-6 (-3)1

-3 (-1)1

-13 (-1)1

-3 (-1)1

2 (-1)1

6 (4)1

2 (1)1

4 (0)1

1 (1)1

-2 (-2)1

1 (1)1

3 (3)1

0 (1)1

5 (4)1

2 (2)1

25 (25)1

5 (5)1

3 (3)1

14 0 0

12 (16)1 -7 (-6)1 7 (7)114 (16)1 -5 (-1)1 -2 (0)1

18 (14)1 3 (1)1 2 (2)1

3 (0)1 4 (0)1 1 (1)1

13 (8)1 5 (3)1 10 (10)1

10 (9)1 2 (3)1 10 (10)1

11 (8)1 11 (4)1 12 (7)110 -3 35 3 4

9 (4)1 1 (-3)1 2 (2)1

16 (9)1 1 (0)1 6 (3)1

4 (1)1

-3 (-3)1

-1 (-1)1

1 (1)112 (7)1 -6 (-5)1 -16 (-15)18 (10)1 -2 (3)1 1 (1)1

-4 (-4)19 (11)1 -2 (-1)1 0 (0)1

-5 (-5)118 (15)1 5 (-1)1 -6 (-7)1

†EMEA – Europe, Middle East and Africa.

1. Number in parentheses is the Net Employment Outlook when adjusted to remove theimpact of seasonal variations in hiring activity. Please note that this data is not available for all countries as a minimum of 17 quarters worth of data is required.

2 (0)1

-2 (-2)10 (0)1

6 -3 1

1 (1)1

-1 (-2)1

-4 (-2)1

-1 (0)1

1 (-1)1

1 (-1)1

2 (3)1

0

-1 (-2)1

2 (2)1

3 (3)1

8 (9)1

7 -6 -3

1 (1)1

7 (8)1

5 (5)1

29 (8)1 2 (1)1 3 (3)1

2 (2)1

* Indicates unadjusted data.

Quarter 3 2014 Net Employment Outlook

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

India

Taiwan

Turkey

New Zealand

Singapore

Peru

Colombia

Costa Rica

Japan

Hong Kong

Panama

Bulgaria

China

Mexico

United States

Guatemala

Argentina

Canada

Slovenia

Australia

Hungary

Romania

Greece

South Africa

United Kingdom

Brazil

Israel

Finland

Germany

Norway

Slovakia

Sweden

Poland

Switzerland

Austria

Ireland

Spain

Czech Republic

Belgium

France

Netherlands

Italy

+46%

+38%

+26%*

+25%

+19%

+18%

+16%

+16%

+16%

+15%

+15%

+14%*

+14%

+14%

+14%

+11%

+10%

+10%

+10%*

+9%

+9%

+9%

+8%

+8%

+8%

+7%

+7%*

+6%*

+5%

+5%

+5%*

+5%

+4%

+3%

+2%

+2%

+2%

0%

-1%

-1%

-1%

-8%

Quarter 3 2014Qtr on Qtr Change

Q2 2014 to Q3 2014 Yr on Yr Change

Q3 2013 to Q3 2014

Americas

Asia PacificAustralia

China

Hong Kong

Japan

India

New Zealand

Singapore

Taiwan

EMEA†

Austria

Belgium

Bulgaria

Costa Rica

Colombia

United States

Czech Republic

Greece

Hungary

South Africa

SloveniaSlovakia

PolandRomania

Canada

Mexico

Peru

Brazil

Argentina

Guatemala

Panama

France

Germany

Finland

Ireland

Netherlands

Norway

Spain

Turkey

Italy

Switzerland

Sweden

Israel

UK

13


CLIeNT: MANpOweR


SIZe: uSLeTTeR




ManpowerGroup interviewed nearly 30,000 employers from 10 countries throughout North, Central and South America to measure anticipated hiring activity for Quarter 3 2014. Positive hiring plans are reported by employers in each country. However, the overall trend is mixed with Outlooks declining by varying margins from Quarter 2 2014 in seven countries and improving in only three. The year-over-year comparison is more evenly mixed with Outlooks improving by varying degrees in four countries, declining in four and remaining unchanged in two.

Opportunities for job seekers are expected to be strongest in Peru where more than one of every four employers surveyed plans to add to their payrolls in the July-September time frame. Additionally, ManpowerGroup’s 2014 Talent Shortage Survey indicates that more than two out of three Peruvian employers are encountering difficulties in their search for suitable employees, with particular shortages noted among skilled trades workers and technicians. Opportunities for job seekers are expected to be especially bright in the Mining sector where the ongoing recovery of international mineral prices continues to boost employer confidence. Employers in Peru’s Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector are also anticipating strong hiring activity in the next three months.

A less optimistic trend is evident in Brazil where the Outlook has now declined steadily for 11 consecutive quarters. Hiring plans remain positive in most industry sectors and all regions. However, for the first time the country’s employers report the Americas region’s

International Comparisons – Americasweakest hiring intentions. They are also reporting the country’s weakest overall Net Employment Outlook since the survey was launched in Brazil in Quarter 4 2009. An active hiring pace is still expected in the Services sector where more than one in three employers say they intend to add staff in the July-September time frame. But the Brazilian survey results are broadly weaker and the forecasts in most sectors and regions decline by considerable margins in year-over-year comparisons. The downturn is most pronounced in the Manufacturing and Agricultural sectors where employers report their first negative forecasts since the survey’s inception.

The Outlook remains upbeat in the United States and employer optimism is now the strongest in more than six years. Employers in the Leisure & Hospitality sector expect the most active hiring pace, while opportunities for job seekers may also pick up slightly in the Education & Health Services sector and the Professional & Business Services sector. Meanwhile, the hiring pace in Mexico is expected to lag with Outlooks declining in most sectors and regions in both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year comparisons.

Canada’s Outlook remains upbeat fuelled in part by moderate quarter-over-quarter gains in the Manufacturing-Durables, Transportation & Utilities and Public Administration sectors. A stronger hiring pace is also expected in Argentina as employer forecasts in both the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate and the Manufacturing sectors climb sharply from three months ago.

Argentina50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Argentina joined the survey in Q1 2007.

Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Brazil50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Brazil joined the survey in Q4 2009.


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


14


CLIeNT: MANpOweR


SIZe: uSLeTTeR




Costa Rica50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Costa Rica joined the survey in Q3 2006.


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Mexico50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20



2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

USA50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20



2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Guatemala50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Guatemala joined the survey in Q2 2008.


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Panama50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Panama joined the survey in Q2 2010.

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


Peru60

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

Peru joined the survey in Q2 2006.


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Canada50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Colombia

Colombia joined the survey in Q4 2008.

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

15


CLIeNT: MANpOweR


SIZe: uSLeTTeR




ManpowerGroup interviewed over 15,500 employers throughout the Asia Pacific region to measure hiring plans in Quarter 3 2014.

Job prospects remain positive across the region, with employers in India, Taiwan and New Zealand once again reporting the strongest hiring plans. Outlooks weaken by varying degrees in five of the eight countries and territories in a quarter-over-quarter comparison, but strengthen in all countries and territories when compared year-over-year.

As they did three months ago, employers in India report the most optimistic forecast among all 42 countries and territories participating in the survey. More than half of Indian employers surveyed plan to add to their workforces in the July-September time frame, and hiring intentions climb sharply in all industry sectors and in most regions compared to last year at this time. Competition for talent remains intense among BFSI, FMCG and IT/ITes employers, and continuing expansion of manufacturing activity is expected to further boost demand for engineers.

A similarly robust hiring pace is expected in Taiwan. Nearly one in two employers expect to add to their workforce in the next three months, with employers in the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector reporting their strongest forecast since Taiwan launched the survey in Quarter 2 2005. New Zealand’s Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector is also expected to provide more opportunities for job seekers with employers reporting the strongest forecast since the survey was launched in Quarter 2 2004.

International Comparisons – Asia PacificMeanwhile, the forecast in China remains little changed from the prior quarter and last year at this time. The hiring pace is expected to remain steady with positive forecasts reported in all industry sectors and regions. However, current trends appear directionless amid continuing signs of weaker domestic demand and ongoing uncertainty associated with the country’s shift from the traditional growth engines of export and investment to a service- and consumption-driven market.

The Outlook in Japan remains upbeat and relatively stable in comparison to both the previous quarter and twelve months ago. Employers report positive forecasts in all industry sectors and regions, particularly in the Mining & Construction sector where employer confidence climbs for the third consecutive quarter to its strongest level since the Japanese survey started in Quarter 3 2003. And according to ManpowerGroup’s 2014 Talent Shortage Survey, skills gaps remain widespread throughout the country where more than eight in 10 Japanese employers – the highest proportion across the globe – report that a lack of candidates with suitable employability skills makes it difficult to fill certain positions.

Elsewhere in the region, Outlooks remain positive. Employer confidence remains relatively stable from three months ago in both Hong Kong and Singapore. And although the region’s weakest hiring pace is expected in Australia, hiring plans improve slightly from year-ago levels with job seekers expected to benefit from continuing favourable forecasts in the Services, the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate and the Wholesale & Retail Trade sectors.

Australia50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20



2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

China

China joined the survey in Q2 2005.

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


16


CLIeNT: MANpOweR


SIZe: uSLeTTeR




Japan50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Singapore


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

-60-50-40-30-20-10

010203040506070

New Zealand50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

New Zealand joined the survey in Q2 2004.No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Taiwan50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Taiwan joined the survey in Q2 2005.


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Hong Kong50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20



2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

India50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

India joined the survey in Q3 2005.


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

17


CLIeNT: MANpOweR


SIZe: uSLeTTeR




Job seekers in the United Kingdom are likely to benefit from the country’s strongest forecast since Quarter 1 2008. Workforce gains are forecast in eight of nine industry sectors and in 11 of 12 regions for the upcoming quarter, with upbeat forecasts reported in both the Finance & Business Services and the Mining & Quarrying sectors.

French employers anticipate subdued third-quarter labour market activity. Nine out of 10 employers indicate they will make no changes to their current payrolls in the months ahead. However, prospects for additional employment opportunities appear weak as employer hiring intentions remain negative for the second consecutive quarter.

Similarly, the labour market in Germany is expected to be relatively quiet in the July-September time frame. Nearly nine out of 10 employers intend to keep their current staffing levels unchanged, with the strongest opportunities for job seekers expected in the Finance & Business Services sector as well as the Construction sector where the Outlook has climbed steadily for four consecutive quarters.

Elsewhere in the region, Eastern European Outlooks are mostly positive, highlighted by opportunities in the Construction sector in Hungary and the Manufacturing sector in Romania. In the Scandinavian region, hiring plans in Sweden are expected to strengthen moderately both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. Meanwhile, employers in South Africa report their strongest forecast in four years with gains registered in all industry sectors in comparison to both the prior quarter and last year at this time.

Over 20,000 employers in 24 countries in the Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region were surveyed to measure anticipated hiring activity for Quarter 3 2014.

Third-quarter survey results are mixed. Positive Outlooks are reported in 19 of 24 countries, compared to 21 of 24 in the April-June time frame. Outlooks improve in only six countries in a quarter-over-quarter comparison, but improve in 20 countries year-over-year. Hiring plans also remain positive in Greece, Ireland and Spain, continuing a pattern that suggests employer confidence is stabilizing in the wake of a prolonged period of pessimistic, post-recession forecasts. However, weak hiring plans continue to challenge job seekers in Italy, while the forecasts in both Belgium and the Netherlands turn slightly negative once again.

Third-quarter hiring plans are strongest in Turkey, Bulgaria and Slovenia. The weakest – and only negative – forecasts are reported by employers in Italy, Belgium, France and the Netherlands.

Turkey’s Outlook is unchanged in comparison to the second-quarter report, and the hiring pace is expected to remain active with one out of three employers surveyed planning to add to their payrolls during the third quarter. Considerable year-over-year improvements in the Manufacturing, Restaurants & Hotels, Construction and Pharmaceuticals industry sectors are further boosting the country’s solid forecast, with Pharmaceutical sector employers reporting their strongest hiring plans since Turkey launched the survey in Quarter 1 2011.

International Comparisons – EMEA

Austria50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20



2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Belgium50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20



2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


18


CLIeNT: MANpOweR


SIZe: uSLeTTeR




Germany50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Hungary50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Hungary joined the survey in Q3 2009.No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Greece50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Greece joined the survey in Q2 2008.No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.

Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted OutlookNet Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Ireland50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20



2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

France50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20



2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Finland50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Finland joined the survey in Q4 2012.

Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Bulgaria50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Bulgaria joined the survey in Q1 2011.


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Czech Republic50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Czech Republic joined the survey in Q2 2008.No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

19


CLIeNT: MANpOweR


SIZe: uSLeTTeR




Norway50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Poland50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Poland joined the survey in Q2 2008.No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Romania50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Romania joined the survey in Q2 2008.No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Slovakia

Slovakia joined the survey in Q4 2011.

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Slovenia

Slovenia joined the survey in Q1 2011.No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Italy50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20


Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Netherlands50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20



2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Israel50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Israel joined the survey in Q4 2011.


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


20


CLIeNT: MANpOweR


SIZe: uSLeTTeR




UK50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20



2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Spain


50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Switzerland

Switzerland joined the survey in Q3 2005.No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Turkey50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Turkey joined the survey in Q1 2011.


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Sweden


50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

South Africa50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

South Africa joined the survey in Q4 2006.No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.

21


CLIeNT: MANpOweR


SIZe: uSLeTTeR




The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted quarterly to measure employers’ intentions to increase or decrease the number of employees in their workforces during the next quarter. ManpowerGroup’s comprehensive forecast of employer hiring plans has been running for more than 50 years and is one of the most trusted surveys of employment activity in the world. Various factors underpin the success of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey:

Unique: It is unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and area of focus.

Projective: The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is the most extensive, forward-looking employment survey in the world, asking employers to forecast employment over the next quarter. In contrast, other surveys and studies focus on retrospective data to report on what occurred in the past.

Independent: The survey is conducted with a representative sample of employers from throughout the countries and territories in which it is conducted. The survey participants are not derived from ManpowerGroup’s customer base.

Robust: The survey is based on interviews with over 65,000 public and private employers across 42 countries and territories to measure anticipated employment trends each quarter. This sample allows for analysis to be performed across specific sectors and regions to provide more detailed information.

Focused: For more than five decades the survey has derived all of its information from a single question.

Survey QuestionFor the Quarter 3 2014 research, all employers participating in the survey worldwide are asked the same question, “How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of September 2014 as compared to the current quarter?”

MethodologyThe Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted using a validated methodology, in accordance with the highest standards in market research. The research team for the 42 countries and territories where the survey is currently conducted includes ManpowerGroup’s internal research team and Infocorp Ltd. The survey has been structured to be representative of each national economy. The margin of error for all national, regional and global data is not greater than +/- 3.9%.

The margin of error for the Canadian survey is +/- 2.2%.

Net Employment OutlookThroughout this report, we use the term “Net Employment Outlook.” This figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage of employers expecting to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter. The result of this calculation is the Net Employment Outlook. Net Employment Outlooks for countries and territories that have accumulated at least 17 quarters of data are reported in a seasonally adjusted format unless otherwise stated.

Seasonal AdjustmentSeasonal adjustments have been applied to the data for Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, Costa Rica, the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Guatemala, Hong Kong, Hungary, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Panama, Peru, Poland, Romania, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, the United Kingdom and the United States to provide additional insight into the survey data. These adjustments make it possible to review the data without the employment fluctuations that normally occur at the same time each year, thus providing a clearer picture of the data over time. ManpowerGroup intends to add seasonal adjustments to the data for other countries in the future, as more historical data is compiled. Note that in Quarter 2 2008, ManpowerGroup adopted the TRAMO-SEATS method of seasonal adjustment for data.

About the Survey


CLIeNT: MANpOweR


SIZe: uSLeTTeR




Manpower, 4950 Yonge Street, Suite 700, Toronto, Ontario, M2N 6K1Tel: 416 225 4455www.manpower.ca

© 2014, ManpowerGroup. All rights reserved.

About ManpowerGroupTM

ManpowerGroup™ (NYSE: MAN) has been the world’s workforce expert, creating innovative workforce solutions, for more than 65 years. As workforce experts, we connect more than 600,000 men and women to meaningful work across a wide range of skills and industries every day. Through our ManpowerGroup family of brands – Manpower ®, Experis™, Right Management ® and ManpowerGroup™ Solutions – we help more than 400,000 clients in 80 countries and territories address their critical talent needs, providing comprehensive solutions to resource, manage and develop talent. In 2014, ManpowerGroup was named one of the World’s Most Ethical Companies for the fourth consecutive year and one of Fortune’s Most Admired Companies, confirming our position as the most trusted and admired brand in the industry. See how ManpowerGroup makes powering the world of work humanly possible: www.manpowergroup.ca

About Manpower CanadaWith nearly 40 offices strategically located across the country, Manpower Canada’s staffing services include administrative, industrial, skilled trades and contact centre personnel as well as the assignment of contract professionals in information technology, scientific, finance, engineering, telecommunications and other professional areas under the Experis brand. More information can be found on the following websites, manpower.ca and experis.ca

Documents

New Q3 2014 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Canada - Experis · 2015. 3. 2. · Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Canada SMART JOB NO: 07264 QuARTeR 3 2014 CLIeNT: MANpOweR SuBJeCT: