New regionalism, cross-border regions and scenarios for the

New Northern Europe

Gleb Yarovoy

ISSK 2010, May 12th

Content

• What is New Northern Europe?

• Methodology: Four scenarios for the NNE

• New regionalism as a context for region-building in the NNE

• Regional paradiplomacy as sources of regional actorness

• Cross-border regions and the future of cooperation in the New Northern Europe

New Northern Europe

Hedegaard & Lindström (1999, 2003) “The NEBI Yearbook 1998”

The State as Main Actor

Non-state Actors

IntegratingInteraction

FragmentingInteraction

1. Intergovernmental Co-operation

2. “Block-building”

4. Region-building / Post-national Structures

3. “Balkanisation”

= High Politics

= Low Politics

1. Intergovernmental cooperation

• Traditional structures of integration:– Nordic Council 1952– Nordic Council of Ministers 1971

• New options after the Cold War– Nordic 5 + Baltic 3 (N5+B3)– Estonia as the 6th Nordic country (or NB 8)– Council of the Baltic Sea States (CBSS)– Council of the Barents Euro-Arctic Region (CBEAR)– Arctic Council (AC)

2. “Block-building”

• EU (DEN, FIN, SWE, B3) vs. non-EU (NOR, RUS) + ICE

• No “Nordic block” in the EU + EMU (only FIN)• Finland – the best “pupil” in the EU “class”• NATO (DEN, NOR, ICE, B3)

vs. non-NATO (FIN, SWE, RUS)• Baltic States = “one-issue-countries” (anti-RUS)• Arctic (AC, BEAR)

vs. Baltic (CBSS)• AC: Common objectives and priorities for the

Norwegian, Danish and Swedish chairmanships of the Arctic Council (2006-2012)

3. “Balkanization”

• Regional disparities in many senses

• Economic and social development

• Different agendas of the northern (Arctic), southern (Baltic Sea) and eastern (EU-Russia) regions of the NNE.

• Civilizational EAST-WEST (Russia-EU) border (S.Huntington)

4. Region-building / Post-National structures

• Globalisation / Glocalisation

• EUropeanisation of the NNE = Regionalisation on sub-national level = “North of the regions”

• Region-building on trans-national level = cross-border cooperation and CBRs

• Increasing role of non-state actors, e.g. indigenous people

• Eroding of the state sovereignty

So which scenario for the NNE?

No answers, only tendencies, which could lead to different answers

Analysis 1: Identity + soft security

• Nordicity (is eroding?) vs.• Europeanness (is strengthening?) is• Opportunity for common NNE-identity? how? new patterns of interaction after the Cold War + their institutionalisation (CBSS, BEAR, ND…) = NNE’s soft security identity (Novack 2003)

Analysis 2: New regionalism(1)

• B.Hettne (2002) NR = context of globalisation + voluntary process

from below + ‘open’ to world economy + non-state actors

• M.Keating (2003) NR = regional competition + trans-national

context. Regions at the “global market”.• P.Schmitt-Egner (2002) Post-modern regionalism + trans-national

regionalism

Analysis 2. New regionalism(2)

• Definition:

New mode of regional activity aimed at realization of internal regional programme in terms of economic development and strengthened regional competitiveness on global market by using the opportunities provided by globalization, European integration and cross-border (or inter-regional) cooperation.

• NR – global phenomenon, also in NNE

Analysis 3. Paradiplomacy (CBC)

• Soft security +

• new regionalism +

• cross-border cooperation =

• regional paradiplomacy

• The term “regional paradiplomacy” is relevant for different types of regions, and has three main dimensions: cross-border cooperation (R-R), transnationalisation (R-TNA) and internationalisation (R-FG/IO)

Marin A. (2001) The International Dimension of Regionalism: St. Petersburg’s “Para-diplomacy”.

Diplomacy Para-diplomacy

ActornessBinding frame

System of relationsMain concern

Mental background

Foreign policy concernsProtocol

Administrative power

Guidelines

Goals

Central/federalInternational Law

State-centricSecurity

State ideology (“Russian idea”)

High politics, hard security issuesFormal

Bureaucratic, centralised

Treaties, diplomatic “conceptions”

Maximisation of power

Regional/sub-governmental“Federal Pact”Multi-centricEconomic wealthLocal identity (“Petersburg idea”)Low politics, soft security issuesInformal, pragmaticNeo-medieval, decentralisedAgreements, Strategic Plan

Autonomy

Analysis 4. Russia• De-federalisation

• Elimination of regional heads’ elections

• Reform of the Council of Federation

• Unification of the regions

• In general: centralisation & state control

• Cross-border cooperation is the only rudiment of Russian regionalism

• CBC (paradiplomatic activity) is the main feature of regional actorness

Analysis 5. Regional actorness

• Regional actorness = 1) type of leadership + 2) structure of economy + 3) cross-border cooperation.

• CBC is a basic component for 1) and 2).• Regional actorness as conditio sine qua non

of engaging Russia/Russian regions into the process(es) of integration in the NNE.

• => CBC and regional paradiplomacy is this conditio sine qua non

CONCLUSION

• CBC is a shortest way to integration in NNE?

• Regional actorness, network of cross-border regions and paradiplomatic relations = ROAD MAP for regional integration scenario for the NNE

• Map of cross-border regions in the New Northern Europe = regional paradiplomacy

• ISSK (etc.) is also paradiplomacy in action

Question

• Which scenario will be more relevant in the long-term perspective (2020-25)

• Pro- and anti- arguments?

• If not those “ideal types”, is(are) there other scenario(s)?