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New Values: Policies to Manage Forest Carbon. Rest of term. November 12 - forest carbon 1, Tutorial 4 November 14 – carbon ( cont ) Brief due November 18 (Monday) – EBM simulation November 19 (Lecture) – comparative November 19 (evening) – area-based simulation November 21 – conclusion 1 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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New Values: Policies to Manage Forest Carbon
Rest of term November 12 - forest carbon 1, Tutorial 4 November 14 – carbon (cont)
Brief due November 18 (Monday) – EBM simulation November 19 (Lecture) – comparative November 19 (evening) – area-based
simulation November 21 – conclusion 1 November 26 – conclusion 2 November 28 – NO CLASS December 12 – 3:30-5:30 final exam
November 12, 2013 2
Context: Forest Offset Controversy
November 12, 2013 3
Key question: are carbon offsets… legitimate reductions in GHGs that
should, if properly regulated, play an meaningful role in climate policy
or
Sketchy subsidies that provide dubious contributions to reducing GHGs, and should not be including in sincere climate policiesNovember 12, 2013 4
Agenda – today and Thursday
Emerging values Forest Carbon 100 How forests can contribute to GHG mitigation BC Climate policy
General Forest carbon
Policy Design Issues Promoting Wood Bioenergy (briefly) conclusion
November 12, 2013 5
Forest offset policy – design issues Ownership Rules for what counts Scope
Including wood products Quantification Permanence Leakage Monitoring Additionality
November 14, 2013 6
BC Emission Offset Regulation (OAG summary)http://www.env.gov.bc.ca/cas/mitigation/ggrta/pdf/offsets-reg.pdf
The project has to start after November 29, 2007 The project cannot be required by law or
regulation. It must be demonstrated that the project faces
financial, technological or other obstacles which are overcome, or partially overcome, by the incentive of being recognized as an emission offset
The financial implications of the baseline scenario need to be considered
Must be validated and by accredited 3rd party
November 14, 2013 7
Forest Carbon Offset Protocol
8http://www.env.gov.bc.ca/cas/mitigation/pdfs/FCOP_final-dec7-overview.pdf
Forest Protocol 1 - Scope Afforestation Reforestation Improved forest management – examples:
Conservation areas Increasing rotation age Increasing forest cover constraints (reduce
harvest) Increase proportion of harvested wood
products Conservation/avoided deforestation
November 14, 2013 9
Forest Protocol 2Additionality (incrementality) sequestration and storage of carbon
in above- and below-ground parts of trees beyond what would occur under the baseline scenario
No baseline established; project proponent proposes one for PCT approval
November 14, 2013 10
Example of additionality (Grieg and Bull)
November 14, 2013 11
Carb
on st
ored
Another depiction of additionality
November 14, 2013 12
http://www.dehst.de/SharedDocs/Bilder/EN/charts/chart_JI-CDM_Baseline.png?__blob=normal&v=3
leakage Where a project changes the level of goods
or services provide, causing a subsequent change to supply outside the area
2 types Land use shifting Harvest shifting
2 sources Internal leakage (lands controlled by project
owner) External leakage – the broader market (not
necessarily in same jurisdiction)November 14, 2013 13
Darkwoods case
55,000 ha private forest land in Kooteneys
PCT description Bought by Nature
Conservancy Canada
NCC sold 450,ooo tonnes of credits to PCT
November 14, 2013 14
Darkwoods – case for
“NCC carries out the stewardship of Darkwoods, resulting carbon being sequestered over time in addition to what would have happened in the absence of NCC’s conservation efforts. Had NCC not purchased the property, it likely would have been developed or logged at an intensive, “liquidation harvest,” level.”
November 14, 2013 15
Darkwoods – baseline issues Baseline assumed to be harvesting
300,000 m3/yr NCC said it would log 10,000 per
year, carbon in the remaining timber is the offset
Actual harvesting rate 2001-07: 57,000
What appropriate baseline is uncertain
November 14, 2013 16
Darkwoods – OAG critique
November 14, 2013 17
Darkwoods – OAG critique
November 14, 2013 18
Darkwoods – OAG critique Concern that carbon accounting
outfits helping develop projects and those verifying project have a conflict of interest
Government not being sufficient diligent in scrutinizing justification for project
November 14, 2013 19
Fallout from OAG report
Attacks of incompetence from offseters
Members of OAG audit team fired (uncertain whether related to case)
Commitment by government to review PCT
November 14, 2013 20
The GBR Case
Big GBR carbon offset projects
May be used to offset LNG expansion
Challenges to additionality
November 14, 2013 21
Agenda Emerging values Forest Carbon 100 How forests can contribute to GHG mitigation BC Climate policy
General Forest carbon
Policy Design Issues Promoting Wood bioenergy conclusion
November 14, 2013 22
Promoting use of wood
Wood First Act (Bill 9 – 2009)
Sector wide initiative: Promote use of wood
Framing: “wood is good”
November 14, 2013 23
Strategic Actor Analysis
Through class participation
November 14, 2013 24
Agenda Emerging values Forest Carbon 100 How forests can contribute to GHG mitigation BC Climate policy
General Forest carbon
Policy Design Issues Promoting Wood Bioenergy conclusion
November 14, 2013 25
Bio-energy Strategy (2008) “convert wood waste and trees that
have been killed by the mountain pine beetle into clean, renewable energy, create new opportunities for rural communities, spur new investment and innovation, and help B.C. become energy self-sufficient.”
November 14, 2013 FRST 415 26
Sustainable Energy Policy 27
Forest Bioenergy - background Viability depends on
relative value of competing uses of forest stands
Depends on Energy density Available technology
(gathering and processing) Regulatory framework Relative prices of energy
and competing forest products
3 sources of forest bioenergy Mill residues Residues left in forest Standing timber (including
plantation)
November 14, 2013 28
Sustainable Energy Policy 29
Forests, bioenergy, and carbon From a greenhouse gas perspective,
it makes more sense to use forests to make long-lived wood products Ben Parfitt –
Managing BC’s Forests for a Cooler Planet
Sustainable Energy Policy 30
New Themes
BC’s forests can potentially contribute to greenhouse gas reductions, but immense complexity and uncertainty make effective and efficient policy design very difficult
BC’s vast forest resource is a potentially significant source of energy, but the low energy density and costs of concentrating the resource where it can be processed means that for the foreseeable future it is likely to be a significant, economical source of energy only as a residual product of the forest sector.
Conclusions Apparent opportunities, immense
challenges course tools applicable Emergent forest carbon policy Limited bioenergy policy
Economics questionable
November 14, 2013 FRST 415 31
Conclusions
Coming paradigm shift, or struggling industry grasping for faint hope?
Depends in part on definition of rules What makes sense in terms of
science? Beware of underlying interests
November 14, 2013 FRST 415 32