New York State’s 2003-04 Economic and Budget Outlook Fiscal Policy Institute One Lear Jet Lane Latham, NY 12110 (518) 786-3156 (518) 786-3146 (fax) [email protected]

New York State’s 2003-04 Economic and Budget Outlook

Fiscal Policy InstituteOne Lear Jet LaneLatham, NY 12110(518) 786-3156(518) 786-3146 (fax)[email protected]

Fiscal Policy Institute (FPI) www.fiscalpolicy.org

2

What is the Fiscal Policy Institute?

The Fiscal Policy Institute (FPI) was an outgrowth of a broad based Coalition for Economic Priorities that was formed in 1989, at the beginning of New York State’s last fiscal crisis.

In its second year of operations, this coalition succeeded in getting the Governor and the Legislature to delay the remaining steps of the overly generous 1987 personal income tax cuts.

In early 1991, many of the Coalition members joined together to create the Fiscal Policy Institute to serve as a source of research, analysis and public education on state tax, budget and economic issues.


3

As Yogi Berra said, it seems like Deja Vu all over again.

The 1990 budget was precariously balanced through spending cuts and revenue increases but shortly after that November’s election, Governor Cuomo called a special session of the legislature to make more cuts.

2002 is also a gubernatorial election year and the recently adopted budget for 2002-03 is using billions of dollars of reserves and one-shots to get past November 5th with as little pain as possible - - very limited tax increases and only modest budget cuts.


4

Why does NYS have a budget gap? The Governor says we have a budget gap primarily

because of the World Trade Center disaster. In one sense he is right. State tax revenues are

down by billions because of (a) the direct impact of the disaster (the loss of thousands of lives and the destruction of 26 million square feet of prime office space) and (b) the indirect impact on numerous industries - from hotels to apparel manufacturing.

But in another sense, we have a budget gap because of the overly generous tax cuts of recent years. The tax cuts enacted in 1994 through 2000 are reducing tax revenues this year by over $12 billion.


5

The tax cuts enacted since 1994 will reduce state revenues

by more than $16 billion per year when fully implemented.

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

1994-951995-961996-971997-981998-991999-002000-012001-022002-032003-042004-052005-06

$0.5

$1.4

$4.2

$6.1

$7.4

$9.4

$11.8

$13.0$13.4

$14.4

$15.2$15.6

Revenue impact, in billions, of tax cuts enacted in 1994 through 2001


6

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

(Mil

lio

ns

of

Do

llars

)

1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04

Total Tax Revenues Revenue Impact of Tax Cuts

If it were not for the tax cuts enacted since1994, New York would have almost $60 billionin tax revenues available to meet the pressing

needs of its residents.


7

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

Tax cuts Current services Debt Service Capital projects

$79.4

$50.5

$6.0

Billions of dollars of cumulative fiscal impact: SFY 1994-95 to SFY 2003-04

By the end of the 2003-2004 state fiscal year, the cumulativeimpact of tax cuts will be nearly $80 billion, while current

services and capital projects together will receive less than $60billion.


8

How big is the state budget gap? In October 2001, the NYS Budget Director said that

state revenues could be down as much as $3 billion in 2001-02 and $6 billion for 2002-03.

In the January 2002 Executive Budget, Governor Pataki estimated the budget gap at $1.1 billion for 2001-02 (all attributable to the decline in tax revenues as a result of 9/11) and $5.7 billion for 2002-03 ($4 billion due to 9/11 and $1.7 billion attributable to the state’s “structural” deficit).

The Senate and the Assembly initially estimated a smaller gap than the Governor but it now looks like the 2002-03 revenue shortfall gap may be as big as the budget director projected last fall.


9

How is the state gap being closed?In the Executive Budget, the Governor proposed to close the gap by using up most of the cash reserves that the state had built up over the last several years.

$1 Billion in Reserves Used to Close 2001-02 Gap $3.3 Billion in Reserves to be Used in 2002-03: Fiscal Responsibility Reserve - $1.5 Billion TANF (Welfare Reform) Surplus - $885 million Refund Reserve Account - $547 million Public Authority Balances - $200 million Environmental Protection Fund - $120 million Various Other Reserves - $415 million


10

In September 2002, the Rockefeller Institute of Government, in its quarterly State Revenue Report, reported that state tax revenues nationwide, in the April-June 2002 quarter, had declined by 10.4 percent compared to the year before. This is the worst quarter of decline since the Institute began to track state tax revenues over eleven years ago.

In New York, revenues were down 19.4% -- only three states (MA, CA, OR) experienced greater revenue losses

State tax revenues have now declined for four straight quarters. This is worrisome not only because of the persistent weakness, but also because the decline seems to be accelerating


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What does this mean for next year? Unless the economy recovers quickly, revenues will

not grow sufficiently to cover the costs being covered this year by reserves that won’t be available next year.

The Governor’s January 2002 projections for 2003-04 counted on strong revenue growth (over 5.25%) but still projected a gap of $2.8 billion.

There are other risks. The Governor’s January 2002 Health Care Bill, for example, counts on a substantial increase in federal aid beginning October 1, 2002.

In adopting the 2002-03 budget, the legislature increased the use of one-shots to avoid many of the Governor’s proposed service cuts.


12

Can’t we continue to use the TANF surplus money? In order to close the budget gap for

2002-2003, the governor exhausted the surplus we had accumulated over the first five years of the TANF program

No sense that TANF block grants will be going up, will have to cut back other uses of the block grant to cover cash assistance requirements.


13

New York's TANF fund balances in Washington are shrinking and will be almost exhausted by the end of the next fiscal year.

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

9/99 9/00 9/01 9/02 (projected) 9/03 (projected)

$752.0 $761.0

$572.6

$182.5

$0.0

Total unobligated balances in millions.

Projection for FFYs ending September 30, 2002 and September 30, 2003 based on proposals in January 2002 Executive Budget to spend $918 million in reserves and other unspent TANF funds from prior year TANF block grants in thestate fiscal year that runs from April 1, 2002 to March 31, 2003.


14

TANF numbers just don’t add up: (ESTIMATES IN MILLIONS)

Basic Federal Block Grant = $2,400 Cash assistance payments = 1,000 Tax Credits (EITC, CDCC) = 438 Transfers (Title XX, ChildCare) 710 BALANCE, ALL OTHER = $252 Current spending on all other: $460 MILLION PLUS $345 MILLION ON TAP


15

Isn’t the recession over? Most economists think the national recession is over. But recessions do not affect all parts of the country

equally. For example, New York, New England and California did much better than the rest of the nation during the recession of the early 1980s, and much worse during the recession of the early 1990s.

During the current recession New York was doing better than the nation as a whole until September 11th. But since the attacks, our economy has suffered greatly.

New York City which had led the state’s boom during the late 1990s has lost over 100,000 jobs since September 11th, and the losses are growing.


16

New York City has gone from boomtown to slowdown.

New York City New York City Suburbs Upstate

July 1999 to July 2000 2.6% 2.2% 1.2%

July 2000 to July 2001 -0.5% 0.7% 0.2%

July 2001 to July 2002 -2.3% 0.3% -0.6%

Since July 2001, payroll employment in New York City has declined by 117,300.

Percent Change in Payroll Employment


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New York Needs to Balance Its Budget in an Economically Sensible Manner NYS needs to press the case for federal

reimbursement of tax revenue losses directly attributable to the international attacks of September 11th.

Governor Pataki raised this issue (asking for $12 billion of such help) in his October 2001 request for $54 billion in federal help, but since then the emphasis has shifted to federal money for other purposes.

Some members of New York’s Congressional delegation are still pushing for such aid.


18

New York State Needs to Balance Its Budget in an Economically

Sensible Manner At the state level, the Governor and the

Legislature need to balance state budget in a balanced and economically sensible manner.

As Joseph Stiglitz, winner of the 2001 Nobel Prize in Economics, and Peter Orszag of the Brookings Institution have explained, cuts in spending in the local economy have a more negative effect during an economic downturn than high end income tax increases.


19

According to Stiglitz and Orszag: Macroeconomic theory tells us that in a recession,

both tax increases and spending cuts are harmful to the economy --- because they reduce aggregate demand.

However, the adverse impact of a tax increase may be smaller than the adverse impact of a spending reduction because some of the tax increase would result in reduced saving rather than reduced consumption. Some types of spending reductions would reduce consumption on a dollar for dollar basis and therefore be more harmful to the economy than a tax increase.


20

Since higher income families tend to have lower propensities to consume than lower-income families, the least damaging approach in the short run involves tax increases concentrated on higher-income families.

Spending that would be reduced if direct spending programs are cut is often concentrated among local businesses. By contrast, the spending by individuals and businesses that would be affected by tax increases often is less concentrated among local producers.


21

Stiglitz and Orszag conclude that

“if anything, tax increases on higher income families are the least damaging mechanism for closing state fiscal deficits in the short run. Reductions in government spending on goods and services, or reductions in transfer payments to lower-income families, are likely to be more damaging to the economy than tax increases focused on higher-income families.”


22

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

1976 1980 1985 1990 1994 1998 2001

Top rate on investment income

Top rate on earned income

Top marginal tax rate

1987 PIT cuts

1995 PIT cuts

New York State has cut its top personal income taxrate by more than 50% over the last 25 years.


23

FPI’s Suggestions for Dealing With New York State’s Budget Gap

Some progressivity must be returned to the State’s Personal Income Tax.

FPI suggests 7/10ths of 1% surcharge on portion of income over $100,000, and another 7/10ths of 1% on portion over $200,000.

This would raise $2.7 billion to $3 billion per year.


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New York used to have 3rd highest income tax rate of all the states with income taxes. It is now 19th out of 42 with a top rate of 6.85%.

In September 2001, North Carolina raised its top rate from 7.75% to 8.25% for 3 years (2001 through 2003).

Massachusetts postponed scheduled income tax cuts and raised its tax on income from capital gains.


25

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

19771979 198119831985 198719891991 199319951997 19992001State Fiscal Year

Corporate franchise tax revenue as a percent of own source revenues

The corporate income tax represents adeclining share of state tax revenues.


26


Profitable corporations that tap New York markets must pay their fair share of state taxes.

Corporate loopholes (such as Toy R’ Us’s Geoffrey the Giraffe and Sherwin-Williams’ royalty scams) must be closed.

The Corporate Alternate Minimum Tax must be restored to its previous levels to provide a floor under the state’s corporate income tax.

Documents

New York State’s 2003-04 Economic and Budget Outlook Fiscal Policy Institute One Lear Jet Lane Latham, NY 12110 (518) 786-3156 (518) 786-3146 (fax) [email protected]