New Zealand Volcanic Ash Advisory System

(NZVAAS) June 2004

Peter LechnerHead of Business Planning and Reporting

Meteorological Authority and Technical Specialist

Civil Aviation Authority of New Zealand

Volcanic Ash & Aviation

The Risk and the RealityBackground and DevelopmentOur VolcanoesSystem ResponsibilitiesAlert levels and Volcanic Hazard AreasExperience

An Increasing Risk

Enhanced jet engine technology Growth of air traffic volumes Increasing risk of volcanic activity

over time

Mt Ruapehu, New Zealand, 1996

AirspaceClosures 1995/6

Cost;• Airlines >$10million• CAA >$0.5million• Others ?

Ash Distribution

The CAA Experience

CAA management of air traffic in a changing and sometimes chaotic ash environment is difficult, expensive and potentially ineffective.

White Island

Mayor Is.

Whale Is.

Rumbles I - V

Curtis Is.

Brimstone Is.

Macauley Is.

Raoul Is.

Monowai Seamont

Unnamed x 3

Kaikohe-Bay of Islands

Whangarei

Auckland Field

Egmont

Reporoa

Maroa

Taupo

Tongariro

Ngauruhoe

Ruapehu

Rotorua

Okataina

Volcanic Threat to NZ Aviation

Alerts and observations of eruptions

Tracking and drift prediction Information flow Air space management Airline discretion Education System ownership and funding

Volcanic Ash Issues

Collaborative Development

Aircraft operators MetService Airways Corporation Civil Aviation Authority Institute Geological & Nuclear Sciences

MetServiceACNZ IGNS

Aircraft Operators

Volcano

VAR feedback

SIGMET (RTF etc)

VAR by

RTF

VAR by fax (post flight)

SIGMET (AFTN)

VARs

Alert level & eruption information

Satellite orother eruption

Information

Electronic &visual eruption & status information

Confirm or denyinformation Independent

observationsor liaison

Other people

NOTAM Request(& confirmation)

NOTAM

Normal pre-flight Met.information

VAR feedback

NZVAAS - 1

NZVAAS - 2

1. To ensure a satisfactory means exists whereby civil aviation aircraft operations can be safely carried out near volcanic ash.

2. The CAA is not responsible for providing any service to airlines to directly assist them with such operations.

CAA Responsibility:

NZVAAS - 3

1. Review the effectiveness of the volcanic ash information system from time to time.

2. Ensure ACNZ, MetService and IGNS have any delegations or permissions required under the Civil Aviation Act 1990 to carry out their roles.

3. Publish, in the appropriate medium, a clear statement of how the volcanic ash information system works in New Zealand.

4. Continue to publish any appropriate educational or technical information on aircraft operation in or near volcanic ash, the volcanic situation in New Zealand or any other relevant material.

5. Establish any new Volcanic Hazard Zones (VHZ) that may be needed to cover volcanoes other than those contemplated.

CAA Role:

MetServiceACNZ IGNS

Aircraft Operators

Volcano

VAR feedback

SIGMET (RTF etc)

VAR by

RTF

VAR by fax (post flight)

SIGMET (AFTN)

VARs

Alert level & eruption information

Satellite orother eruption

Information

Electronic &visual eruption & status information

Confirm or denyinformation Independent

observationsor liaison

Other people

NOTAM Request(& confirmation)

NOTAM

Normal pre-flight Met.information

VAR feedback

NZVAAS - 4

ACNZ IGNS

Aircraft Operators

Volcano

VAR feedback

SIGMET (RTF etc)

VAR by

RTF

VAR by fax (post flight)

SIGMET (AFTN)

VARs

Alert level & eruption information

Satellite orother eruption

Information

Electronic &visual eruption & status information

Confirm or denyinformation Independent

observationsor liaison

Other people

NOTAM Request(& confirmation)

NOTAM

Normal pre-flight Met.information

VAR feedback

NZVAAS - 5

MetService

MetServiceACNZ IGNS

Aircraft Operators

Volcano

VAR feedback

SIGMET (RTF etc)

VAR by

RTF

VAR by fax (post flight)

SIGMET (AFTN)

VARs

Alert level & eruption information

Satellite orother eruption

Information

Electronic &visual eruption & status information

Confirm or denyinformation Independent

observationsor liaison

Other people

NOTAM Request(& confirmation)

NOTAM

Normal pre-flight Met.information

VAR feedback

NZVAAS - 6

MetServiceACNZ IGNS

Aircraft Operators

Volcano

VAR feedback

SIGMET (RTF etc)

VAR by

RTF

VAR by fax (post flight)

SIGMET (AFTN)

VARs

Alert level & eruption information

Satellite orother eruption

Information

Electronic &visual eruption & status information

Confirm or denyinformation Independent

observationsor liaison

Other people

NOTAM Request(& confirmation)

NOTAM

Normal pre-flight Met.information

VAR feedback

NZVAAS - 7

Volcano Alert Levels

FREQUENTLY ACTIVE VOLCANOESWhite Island, Tongariro -Ngauruhoe, Ruapehu

SCIENTIFIC ALERT LEVEL

REAWAKENING VOLCANOES Kermadecs, Northland, Auckland, Mayor Island, Rotorua, Okataina, Taupo, Egmont

Volcano Status Indicative Phenomena Indicative Phenomena Volcano Status

Usual dormant or quiescent state.

Typical background surface activity; seismicity, deformation and heat flow at low levels.

0

Typical background surface activity; seismicity, deformation and heat flow at low levels.

Usual dormant or quiescent state.

Signs of volcano unrest.

Departure from typical background surface activity.

1Apparent seismic, geodetic, thermal or other unrest indicators

Initial signs of possible volcano unrest. No eruption threat.

Minor eruptive activity.

Onset of eruptive activity, accompanied by changes to monitored indicators.

2

Increase in number or intensity of unrest indicators (seismicity, deformation, heat flow etc.).

Confirmation of volcano unrest. Eruption threat.

Significant local eruption in progress.

Increased vigour of ongoing activity and monitored indicators. 3

Minor eruptions. High increasing trends of unrest indicators, significant effects on volcano and possibly beyond.

Minor eruptions commenced. Real possibility of hazardous eruptions.

Hazardous local eruption in progress.

Significant change to ongoing activity and monitoring indicators. Effects beyond volcano.

4

Eruption of new magma. Sustained high levels of unrest indicators, significant effects beyond volcano.

Hazardous local eruption in progress. Large scale eruption now possible.

Large hazardous eruption in progress.

Destruction with major damage beyond volcano. Significant risk over wider areas.

5

Destruction with major damage beyond active volcano. Significant risk over wider areas.

Large hazardous volcanic eruption in progress.

Volcanic Hazard Zone Limits

Volcano Alert Level

Radius from Vent (nm)

Volcanic Hazard Zone Upper Limit

Ruapehu (VHZ 314)

Ngauruhoe (VHZ313)

White Island

(VHZ 211)

Any other NZ volcano

1 312,200ft

AMSL10,500ft

AMSL4,500ft AMSL

3000 ft above vent

2 8 FL 150 FL 150 FL 150 FL 150

3 16 FL 330 FL 330 FL 330 FL 330

4 27 FL 480 FL 480 FL 480 FL 480

5 >50 unlimited unlimited unlimited unlimited

Volcanic Hazard Zones

For Alert Level 3VHZ = 16nm radius, ground level to FL 330

Operator Discretion

Airlines now decide where and when they can safely operate during a volcanic event

Only possible through the conjoint and co-operative provision of NZVAAS

Summary

Threat of volcanic ash in aviation is increasing

NZVAAS implemented to mitigate that risk at a local level

NZVAAS supplements ICAO IAVW A high level of good information is

available NZVAAS permits aircraft operations to

safely continue in proximity to ash It is a low cost scalable operation

Conclusion

NZVAAS:

An effective system for New Zealand Its success stems from:

• formal arrangements and systems, and • co-operative and collaborative relationships