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Newton’s Law #1: Inertia and Motion
An object at rest stays at rest.
An object in motion stays in motion, with the same speed and direction, unless some other force intervenes.
U.S. Outlook
• Uncertain impact of “Tax Cut and Jobs Act”
• Slow GDP growth “new norm” – 8 years avg. 2.2%; 2017 ~2.7%; 2018 ~3%
• Interest rates likely to rise…maybe!
• Inflation 2% - 2.5%
• Industrial production and manufacturing positive but little help on employment
• Housing improving, not fully recovered
• Jobs expand <2%; unemployment rate ~4.0%
Texas and U.S. Economic GrowthAnnual Percent Change in Real GDP
6.2%
3.9%3.3%
2.6%
1.5%
0.8%
4.8%
2.3%
6.2%
4.9%
0.6%
-0.6%
2.6%
3.6%
5.7%5.1%
3.7%
4.5%
0.4%
3.6%4.1%
4.5% 4.7% 4.1%
1.0%
1.8%
2.8%
3.8% 3.3%
2.7%
1.8%
-0.3%
-2.8%
2.5%
1.6% 2.2%
1.7%
2.6% 2.9%
1.5%
2.8% 3.0%
-5.0% -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0%
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017e
2018p
Texas US
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
Jan-
00Ju
l-00
Jan-
01Ju
l-01
Jan-
02Ju
l-02
Jan-
03Ju
l-03
Jan-
04Ju
l-04
Jan-
05Ju
l-05
Jan-
06Ju
l-06
Jan-
07Ju
l-07
Jan-
08Ju
l-08
Jan-
09Ju
l-09
Jan-
10Ju
l-10
Jan-
11Ju
l-11
Jan-
12Ju
l-12
Jan-
13Ju
l-13
Jan-
14Ju
l-14
Jan-
15Ju
l-15
Jan-
16Ju
l-16
Jan-
17Ju
l-17
Jan-
18
Thou
sand
s of
Job
s, S
A
Average of ~197,000 jobs per month since October 2010
Six-month moving average
Monthly Change in Total Nonfarm Employment
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items; Y/Y % change in index
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Jan-
00
Jan-
01
Jan-
02
Jan-
03
Jan-
04
Jan-
05
Jan-
06
Jan-
07
Jan-
08
Jan-
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Jan-
10
Jan-
11
Jan-
12
Jan-
13
Jan-
14
Jan-
15
Jan-
16
Jan-
17
Jan-
18
Inflation Remains Relatively LowConsumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items; Y/Y % change in index
102030405060708090
100110120130140150160
Jan-
07
Jul-0
7
Jan-
08
Jul-0
8
Jan-
09
Jul-0
9
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
Jan-
14
Jul-1
4
Jan-
15
Jul-1
5
Jan-
16
Jul-1
6
Jan-
17
Jul-1
7
Jan-
18
Jul-1
8
U.S.
TexasHarvey hit Texas hard
Consumer Confidence Index
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index(Overall Index SA 1986 = 100)
8486889092949698
100102104106108110
Jan-
11M
ar-1
1M
ay-1
1Ju
l-11
Sep-
11N
ov-1
1Ja
n-12
Mar
-12
May
-12
Jul-1
2Se
p-12
Nov
-12
Jan-
13M
ar-1
3M
ay-1
3Ju
l-13
Sep-
13N
ov-1
3Ja
n-14
Mar
-14
May
-14
Jul-1
4Se
p-14
Nov
-14
Jan-
15M
ar-1
5M
ay-1
5Ju
l-15
Sep-
15N
ov-1
5Ja
n-16
Mar
-16
May
-16
Jul-1
6Se
p-16
Nov
-16
Jan-
17M
ar-1
7M
ay-1
7Ju
l-17
Sep-
17N
ov-1
7Ja
n-18
0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0
10.011.012.013.014.0
1985
-Ja
n19
86 -
Jan
1987
-Ja
n19
88 -
Jan
1989
-Ja
n19
90 -
Jan
1991
-Ja
n19
92 -
Jan
1993
-Ja
n19
94 -
Jan
1995
-Ja
n19
96 -
Jan
1997
-Ja
n19
98 -
Jan
1999
-Ja
n20
00 -
Jan
2001
-Ja
n20
02 -
Jan
2003
-Ja
n20
04 -
Jan
2005
-Ja
n20
06 -
Jan
2007
-Ja
n20
08 -
Jan
2009
-Ja
n20
10 -
Jan
2011
-Ja
n20
12 -
Jan
2013
-Ja
n20
14 -
Jan
2015
-Ja
n20
16 -
Jan
2017
-Ja
n
InterestRate%
Eff. Fed Funds Rate 30-YR FMR
Impact on LT rates not as strong
30—Year FMR and the Effective Federal Funds Rate
Expected Interest Rate on a 30-Year,Fixed-Rate Mortgage in 2018
Apr-10 5.10
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
Jan-
07
Jan-
08
Jan-
09
Jan-
10
Jan-
11
Jan-
12
Jan-
13
Jan-
14
Jan-
15
Jan-
16
Jan-
17
Jan-
18
Jan-
19
30-Year FRM rate is projected to rise in 2018 by 25bp to 50bp (or as much as 100bp) from Fed increasing Fed Funds rate at least 75 bp
+25bp
+50bp
+100bp
2017 Recovery Year – A Very Good Year
2018: Potentially Better
Texas EconomyTexas Economy
Texas Outlook
• 2018 better than 2017: energy, healthcare, business & professional services up; Harvey relatively minor to state
• National economic expansion most positive factor for 2018
• Energy sector downturn impacts mostly over; oil prices approaching $60/bl.+
• Texas job growth picking up, expect ~2.3% or more
• Population expansion continues
• Local Growth Issues becoming more pressing, causing greater strain on state and local resources and causing some cost impacts on local housing
• Rebound from Harvey will contribute to some misleading economic growth in 2018; impact on property values in affected counties & neighborhoods
Texas Annual Jobs
7,125,7007,204,6007,301,2007,515,100
7,786,1008,058,700
8,291,4008,642,700
8,973,7009,189,400
9,461,2009,543,9009,446,4009,400,7009,527,7009,771,800
10,098,30010,428,200
10,642,40010,341,10010,374,500
10,604,20010,914,400
11,241,20011,593,900
11,869,70012,028,400
12,329,110
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
10,000,000
11,000,000
12,000,000
13,000,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
p
2012 +2.9% +310,2002013 +3.0% +326,8002014 +3.1% +352,7002015 +2.4% +275,8002016 +1.3% +158,7002017p +2.5% +300,710
2010-2015 +1,499.600 jobs;Average 299,920/year
Weekly Active Texas Rig Count & Price of WTI
11/21/2014, 906
5/20/2016, 173
6/27/2014, $106.69
2/12/2016, $28.14
$0$10$20$30$40$50$60$70$80$90$100$110$120$130$140$150$160$170$180
100150200250300350400450500550600650700750800850900950
1,000
1/7/
2000
3/31
/200
06/
23/2
000
9/15
/200
012
/8/2
000
3/2/
2001
5/25
/200
18/
17/2
001
11/9
/200
12/
1/20
024/
26/2
002
7/19
/200
210
/11/
2002
1/3/
2003
3/28
/200
36/
20/2
003
9/12
/200
312
/5/2
003
2/27
/200
45/
21/2
004
8/13
/200
411
/5/2
004
1/28
/200
54/
22/2
005
7/15
/200
510
/7/2
005
12/3
0/20
053/
24/2
006
6/16
/200
69/
8/20
0612
/1/2
006
2/23
/200
75/
18/2
007
8/10
/200
711
/2/2
007
1/25
/200
84/
18/2
008
7/11
/200
810
/3/2
008
12/2
6/20
083/
20/2
009
6/12
/200
99/
4/20
0911
/25/
2009
2/19
/201
05/
14/2
010
8/6/
2010
10/2
9/20
101/
21/2
011
4/15
/201
17/
8/20
119/
30/2
011
12/2
2/20
113/
16/2
012
6/8/
2012
8/31
/201
211
/21/
2012
2/15
/201
35/
10/2
013
8/2/
2013
10/2
5/20
131/
17/2
014
4/11
/201
47/
3/20
149/
26/2
014
12/1
9/20
143/
13/2
015
6/5/
2015
8/28
/201
511
/20/
2015
2/12
/201
65/
6/20
167/
29/2
016
10/2
1/20
161/
13/2
017
4/7/
2017
6/30
/201
79/
22/2
017
12/1
5/20
173/
9/20
186/
1/20
18
Rig Count(left)
WTI $/bl. (right)
Rig Count up 280, +162% since May 2016
Current and Futures Price of WTI
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
Jan-
13M
ar-1
3M
ay-1
3Ju
l-13
Sep-
13N
ov-1
3Ja
n-14
Mar
-14
May
-14
Jul-1
4Se
p-14
Nov
-14
Jan-
15M
ar-1
5M
ay-1
5Ju
l-15
Sep-
15N
ov-1
5Ja
n-16
Mar
-16
May
-16
Jul-1
6Se
p-16
Nov
-16
Jan-
17M
ar-1
7M
ay-1
7Ju
l-17
Sep-
17N
ov-1
7Ja
n-18
Mar
-18
May
-18
Jul-1
8
Ave
rage
Mon
thly
Pric
eCushing Spot Price 6-Month Futures12-Month Futures 2-Year Futures
Austin Economy
396,100408,800430,800
461,000492,000
524,900549,800
575,500610,500
645,900684,000685,300
669,200663,900679,000704,700
736,400772,100
791,000774,300785,600
811,900844,400
884,000922,900
962,900999,800
1,025,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
1,100,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
17YT
D
Austin Annual Jobs
2015 +4.3%2016 +3.8%2017 ~2.5%
700,000
750,000
800,000
850,000
900,000
950,000
1,000,000
1,050,000
1,100,000
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
Jan-
14
Jul-1
4
Jan-
15
Jul-1
5
Jan-
16
Jul-1
6
Jan-
17
Jul-1
7
Jan-
18
Austin Monthly Jobs
Annual Employment Growth Rates
-6.0-5.0-4.0-3.0-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.04.05.06.0
Jan-
09A
pr-0
9Ju
l-09
Oct
-09
Jan-
10A
pr-1
0Ju
l-10
Oct
-10
Jan-
11A
pr-1
1Ju
l-11
Oct
-11
Jan-
12A
pr-1
2Ju
l-12
Oct
-12
Jan-
13A
pr-1
3Ju
l-13
Oct
-13
Jan-
14A
pr-1
4Ju
l-14
Oct
-14
Jan-
15A
pr-1
5Ju
l-15
Oct
-15
Jan-
16A
pr-1
6Ju
l-16
Oct
-16
Jan-
17A
pr-1
7Ju
l-17
Oct
-17
Jan-
18
TexasUS
Austin
Industry November2016
November2017 Change %
ChangeTotal Nonfarm (NSA) 1,018,600 1,046,400 27,800 2.7%Wholesale Trade 49,000 53,500 4,500 9.2%Leisure and Hospitality 122,300 129,800 7,500 6.1%Manufacturing 55,600 58,700 3,100 5.6%Other Services 44,200 46,300 2,100 4.8%Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities 18,200 19,000 800 4.4%
Education and Health Services 119,500 123,700 4,200 3.5%Mining, Logging and Construction 60,800 62,700 1,900 3.1%Financial Activities 57,700 58,700 1,000 1.7%Professional and Business Services 172,600 175,500 2,900 1.7%Government 181,800 184,500 2,700 1.5%Retail Trade 108,000 106,500 -1,500 -1.4%Information 28,900 27,500 -1,400 -4.8%
Austin Employment Change
Austin & Texas Business-Cycle IndexesMonthly, Seasonally Adjusted, 10/1980=100
50100150200250300350400450500550600650700750800850900950
Jan-
00
Jan-
01
Jan-
02
Jan-
03
Jan-
04
Jan-
05
Jan-
06
Jan-
07
Jan-
08
Jan-
09
Jan-
10
Jan-
11
Jan-
12
Jan-
13
Jan-
14
Jan-
15
Jan-
16
Jan-
17
Jan-
18
Austin
Texas
Texas Demographics
2016 to 2017 Population Change
• Texas added 399,734 2016-2017 (~1,100/day) +188,580 in-migration. Population now 28,304,596• Since 2010 +3,158,496 (average 451,214/year); +1,616,768 in-mig. almost 1,000,000
domestic in-migration.
2015-2016: Only two MSAs to add >100,000
• DFW added 143,400; now 7.23 million #4 MSA• Since 2010 +780,646 (average +130,000/year)
• Houston added 125,000; now 6.77 million #5 MSA• Since 2010 +824,296 (average +137,382/year)
• Austin added 58,301; now 2,056,405 #31 MSA• Since 2010 +328,749 (average +54,792/year)
Estimated Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010 to 2016
Pecos
Brewster
Webb
Hudspeth
PresidioTerrell
CulbersonReeves
Val Verde
Crockett
Hill
Duval
Harris
Frio
Bell
Kerr
Kenedy
Starr
Polk
Clay
Edwards
Irion
Hall
Ellis
Jeff Davis
Sutton
Uvalde
Bee
Hale
Dallam
Leon
Bexar
Gaines
Hidalgo
Upton
Hartley
King
Erath
Jack
Kinney
Kent
Zavala
Brazoria
Tyler
GrayOldham
Dimmit
CassLynn HuntWise
La Salle
Rusk
Kimble
Lamb
Medina
Floyd
Terry
Coke
Llano
Liberty
Ector
Andrews
Milam
Travis Lee
Knox
Mills
Smith
Falls
Ward
Collin
Jones
Nolan
Potter
Burnet
Cottle
Nueces
Taylor
Zapata
Real
Coryell
Bowie
Motley
Young
Lamar
Martin
Garza
DallasFisher
Moore
Baylor
Kleberg
Archer
Scurry
Cameron
Cooke
Mason
Parker
Castro
Navarro
Brooks
Hardin
Deaf Smith
Lavaca
Donley
Hays
Goliad
Denton
El Paso
Fannin
Tarrant
Crane
Carson
Crosby
Borden
Schleicher
Gillespie
Shelby
Foard
Wood
Menard
Panola
Walker
Winkler
Harrison
Eastland
Loving
Bandera
Wichita
Hood
Matagorda
Brown
Reagan Houston
Maverick
Jasper
Coleman
Tom Green
Bailey
DeWittAtascosa
Bosque
Wharton
Concho
Runnels
Fayette
Haskell
Calhoun
Newton
Live Oak
Randall
Sterling
Jefferson
Briscoe
McMullen
Parmer
Jim Hogg
Mitchell
Wilson
Victoria
Trinity
Roberts
Howard
Bastrop
Grayson
San Saba
Midland
Hockley Dickens
Swisher
Gonzales
Anderson
Dawson
Willacy
Grimes
Wheeler
Cherokee
Colorado
Lubbock
Karnes
Red River
Refugio
Austin
Hemphill
Williamson
Jackson
Blanco
Ochiltree
McCulloch
Sherman
Wilbarger
Hansford
Callahan
McLennan
Yoakum
Angelina
Hopkins
Lipscomb
StephensPalo Pinto
Stonewall
Hamilton
MontagueCochran
Jim Wells
Limestone
Kaufman
Fort Bend
Titus
Comal
Armstrong
Kendall
FreestoneComancheGlasscock
Johnson
Galveston
Henderson
Montgomery
Brazos
Van Zandt
Chambers
Robertson
Waller
Sabine
Upshur
Hutchinson
Shackelford
Childress
Burleson
Nacogdoches
Lampasas
Collingsworth
Hardeman
Throckmorton
Guadalupe
Caldwell
Aransas
Marion
San Patricio
Madison
San Jacinto
Delta
Washington Orange
Rains
Gregg
Morris
San Augustine
Franklin
Somervell
Rockwall
96 counties lost population over the 6 year period.
-2,010 - 0
1 - 1,000
1,001 - 20,000
20,001 - 100,000
100,001 - 497,469
Median Household Income, Texas Counties, 2011-2015
DallasHoward
FoardFloyd
Brewster
FranklinHunt
Newton
Starr
Kinney
Collingsworth
TomGreen
Coleman
Brazoria
Leon
Duval
Lamb
Morris
Smith
Jackson
Medina
Wheeler
Dallam
Callahan
Lamar
Coryell
Gaines
Kendall
Nacogdoches
Milam
Hays
Willacy
Johnson
Reagan
Webb
Shackelford
Bowie
Scurry
Kenedy
Somervell
Oldham
Taylor
King
Borden
Walker
Stephens
Deaf Smith
Roberts
Tyler
Val Verde
Brown
Parker
Harris
Zapata
RedRiver
Karnes
PaloPinto
GlasscockShelby
Wood
Crosby
Refugio
Burnet
Sterling
Montgomery
San Augustine
Rains
Nueces
Jack
Swisher
Brazos
Orange
Colorado
Pecos
Cochran
Parmer
Freestone
Winkler
Wichita
Gray
Schleicher
Hardeman
TravisGillespie
Yoakum
Fayette
Uvalde
Grimes
VanZandt
Throckmorton
Falls
Grayson
Ellis
Hall
Dickens
TrinityReeves
Marion
Terrell
Lynn
LaSalle
Jasper
Jones
Castro
Victoria
Kleberg
Briscoe
Clay
Matagorda
Brooks
Runnels
Carson
Liberty
Lee
Hale
Bexar
Garza
Montague
UptonHamilton
FisherDawson
Dimmit
Limestone
Hutchinson
Llano
Presidio
Eastland
Sabine
Wharton
Rusk
Tarrant
Lavaca
Childress
Hidalgo
Kaufman
Moore
Menard
Edwards
SanPatricio
Terry
Crockett
Houston
Waller
Coke
Ward
Titus
Lampasas
Haskell
Martin
Atascosa
HemphillHartley
Young
BurlesonHardin
Gonzales
McMullen
Erath
Galveston
Hopkins
McLennan
Madison
McCulloch
Donley
Kent
Real
Sutton
Midland
Hudspeth
Zavala
Harrison
Comanche
Mitchell
Navarro
Crane
Lubbock
Wise
Washington
Jeff Davis
El Paso
Gregg
Williamson
Lipscomb
Mason
Henderson
Hansford
Chambers
Hill
Potter
Jim Wells
DeltaStonewall
Ector
Cameron
Maverick
Collin
Baylor
Panola
Guadalupe
Bastrop
Austin
Andrews
Anderson
Blanco
DeWitt
Bandera
Bell
Aransas
Archer
Armstrong
Bee
Angelina
Bailey
Jefferson
Frio
Fannin
Goliad
Loving
Cass
Fort Bend
Bosque
Hockley
SanSaba
Kerr
Mills
Cooke
Wilbarger
Irion
Caldwell
JimHogg
Culberson
Upshur
Cherokee
Denton
Concho
Randall
Kimble
Knox
Polk
Hood
San Jacinto
Robertson
Wilson
Nolan
Cottle
Calhoun
Rockwall
LiveOak
Motley
ShermanOchiltree
Comal
tl_2010_48_county10MedHHInc15
$22,741.00 - $35,000.00
$35,000.01 - $45,000.00
$45,000.01 - $55,000.00
$55,000.01 - $65,000.00
$65,000.01 - $89,152.00
tl_2010_48_county10
54,369,297
47,386,428
25,145,561 40,502,749
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2000-2010 Scenario
50% 2000-2010 Scenario
2010-2015 Scenario
Alternative Projections Texas Population 1910-2050
From 1970-2010 (40 years), Texas added 13.9 million people
From 2010-2050 (40 years), Texas will add between 22 and 30 million people
Legendtl_2010_48_county10F6
-6,200 - 0
1 - 2,000
2,001 - 10,000
10,001 - 100,000
100,001 - 1,000,000
1,000,001 -3,480,000
Projected Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010-2050
301,261585,051
1,249,7631,716,289
2,306,857
3,035,547
3,960,317
5,176,940
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Austin MSA PopulationBastrop, Caldwell, Hays, Travis & Williamson Counties
2010-2050 3,460,651; 202% increase86,500/year average
37,305
422,679
633,783
940,542
1,380,749
1,976,958
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Williamson County Population
2010-2050 1,554,279; 368% increase38,850/year average
27,642
157,107
246,119
372,120
556,982
824,070
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Hays County Population
2010-2050 667,000; 425% increase16,675/year average increase
Housing Market
1. Demographics: generational life cycles; shifting tastes, preferences, attitudes & desires
2. Affordability: the main challenge for the next several years (decades?); income growth vs. price changes
3. Capital Flows & Lending Requirements: equity requirements; interest rates and monetary/fiscal policies
4. Infrastructure: transportation, education, utilities
5. Development: Design, Density, Resources and Processes
6. Regulatory: lending; environmental; land use controlsFederalStateLocal
Macro Housing Issues
• Mortgage Rates: Probably up ~0.5%+/- by year-end
• Household Formations: ~1.25 million+; millennial demand grows, but constrained by debt, income, prices, savings
• Sales volume slower but price growth• Increased first-timers, millennials more active
• Prices pushed up from low inventory & high demand ~4.5%
• Rental Market: loosening, low vacancies from greater inventory, higher rents
• Single-family Rental: organized SF rental market with institutional owners competing with entry buyers
• Home Construction: possible slow down in volume; significant cost increases in labor, materials, land
• Affordability: prices and rents increasing faster than incomes – definite constraint on market
2018 Housing Market
103,344102,789110,830
120,749126,525
126,279
142,940151,861
177,179
191,189195,568204,084209,438
224,215
250,380
277,649
304,762
286,778
241,666
221,768211,640213,396
247,090
287,235296,828
309,518323,607
309,994
$50,000$70,000$90,000$110,000$130,000$150,000$170,000$190,000$210,000$230,000$250,000$270,000$290,000$310,000$330,000
50,00070,00090,000
110,000130,000150,000170,000190,000210,000230,000250,000270,000290,000310,000330,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
17YT
D
Sales Avg Price Md Price
Annual Texas Home Sales
Since 2011Average Price up 42%Median Price up 52%17YTD sales +3.7%
Texas SF Building Permits
38,23346,209
59,54369,96470,45270,421
83,13282,228
99,912101,928108,782111,915
122,913
137,493
151,384
166,203163,032
120,366
81,107
68,23068,17067,254
81,926
93,478103,045
105,448106,511
115,500
124,500133,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
e20
18p
2019
p
1990-2016 average 95,529/year
2015 +2.3%2016 +1.0%2017e +8.4%2018p +7.8%
Texas SF Building Permits per 1,000 New Households
316401
739645
580528
1,339
689
347
851
398435
648719
435
585592
714699809
1,191
1,550
2,018
970888
1,242
894
455
646
324
602679668619
731695
100
300
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
1,900
2,100
2,300
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2008-2016, added 1.33 million HHs. Would have built 1.1 million SF homes at average/year; actually built 776k. About 315,000 units short.
1995-2015 average 820/year
Texas MF Building Permits
8,96210,2989,514
15,545
32,23734,68435,720
43,794
56,918
44,716
32,620
38,42742,40943,081
39,796
44,431
53,894
58,542
49,897
17,37521,504
32,260
56,40656,644
67,31969,995
59,34254,847
56,900
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
e20
18p
1990-2014 average 34,368/year
2015 +4.0%2016 -15.2%2017e -7.6%
Texas Residential Construction Leading and Coincident Indexes
Jan 2000=100
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Jan-
00Ju
l-00
Jan-
01Ju
l-01
Jan-
02Ju
l-02
Jan-
03Ju
l-03
Jan-
04Ju
l-04
Jan-
05Ju
l-05
Jan-
06Ju
l-06
Jan-
07Ju
l-07
Jan-
08Ju
l-08
Jan-
09Ju
l-09
Jan-
10Ju
l-10
Jan-
11Ju
l-11
Jan-
12Ju
l-12
Jan-
13Ju
l-13
Jan-
14Ju
l-14
Jan-
15Ju
l-15
Jan-
16Ju
l-16
Jan-
17Ju
l-17
Jan-
18Ju
l-18
Leading Index
Coincident Index
Total Housing Permits (12-MMA)
The Austin Housing Market
Austin Annual Home Sales
7,0687,4858,389
9,78410,41811,291
12,40612,253
15,338
17,84518,32118,09518,41419,469
22,193
26,448
29,767
27,571
22,06820,407
19,54721,034
25,198
29,97030,15031,560
32,933
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Austin Monthly Home Sales
9001,1001,3001,5001,7001,9002,1002,3002,5002,7002,9003,1003,3003,5003,7003,9004,100
Janu
ary
Febr
uary
Mar
ch
Apr
il
May
June
July
Aug
ust
Sept
embe
r
Oct
ober
Nov
embe
r
Dec
embe
r
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
2017YTD +3.2%
Austin Months Inventory
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8Ja
n-91
Jul-9
1Ja
n-92
Jul-9
2Ja
n-93
Jul-9
3Ja
n-94
Jul-9
4Ja
n-95
Jul-9
5Ja
n-96
Jul-9
6Ja
n-97
Jul-9
7Ja
n-98
Jul-9
8Ja
n-99
Jul-9
9Ja
n-00
Jul-0
0Ja
n-01
Jul-0
1Ja
n-02
Jul-0
2Ja
n-03
Jul-0
3Ja
n-04
Jul-0
4Ja
n-05
Jul-0
5Ja
n-06
Jul-0
6Ja
n-07
Jul-0
7Ja
n-08
Jul-0
8Ja
n-09
Jul-0
9Ja
n-10
Jul-1
0Ja
n-11
Jul-1
1Ja
n-12
Jul-1
2Ja
n-13
Jul-1
3Ja
n-14
Jul-1
4Ja
n-15
Jul-1
5Ja
n-16
Jul-1
6Ja
n-17
Jul-1
7Ja
n-18
Jul-1
8
Average since 1990 5.1 months
Austin November Sales and Months Inventory by Price
72,25275,86582,929
90,94995,158100,025107,884111,819117,207
125,888
143,550149,611153,545153,836153,198
160,701171,272
183,292187,319
185,150189,356189,900203,000
220,000
240,000
260,000
280,000294,000
$50,000$70,000$90,000
$110,000$130,000$150,000$170,000$190,000$210,000$230,000$250,000$270,000$290,000$310,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
17YT
D
Austin Median Home Prices
2015 +8%; 2016 +7.7%; 2017 +5%
Austin Monthly Median Home Price12-Month Moving Average
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000
$200,000
$220,000
$240,000
$260,000
$280,000
$300,000
Jan-
99Ju
l-99
Jan-
00Ju
l-00
Jan-
01Ju
l-01
Jan-
02Ju
l-02
Jan-
03Ju
l-03
Jan-
04Ju
l-04
Jan-
05Ju
l-05
Jan-
06Ju
l-06
Jan-
07Ju
l-07
Jan-
08Ju
l-08
Jan-
09Ju
l-09
Jan-
10Ju
l-10
Jan-
11Ju
l-11
Jan-
12Ju
l-12
Jan-
13Ju
l-13
Jan-
14Ju
l-14
Jan-
15Ju
l-15
Jan-
16Ju
l-16
Jan-
17Ju
l-17
Average Annual Appreciation ~5%
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
$130
$140
$150
$160
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
Jan-
14
Jul-1
4
Jan-
15
Jul-1
5
Jan-
16
Jul-1
6
Jan-
17
Jul-1
7
Jan-
18
Austin Monthly Median Home Price per Square Foot for Resale Homes
Price RangePercent Distribution
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016$0 - $69,999 4.5 2.9 1.7 0.9 0.6 0.4
$70,000 - $99,999 6.5 5.3 3.3 1.9 1.1 0.8$100,000 - $149,999 21.5 19.5 15.9 11.0 6.5 3.8$150,000 - $199,999 20.9 21.3 22.2 22.1 19.5 15.3$200,000 - $249,999 12.9 13.9 15.1 17.0 18.6 19.6$250,000 - $299,999 10.0 10.3 10.9 12.3 14.3 15.7$300,000 - $399,999 11.0 11.9 13.6 15.5 17.3 19.7$400,000 - $499,999 5.1 6.3 7.5 8.2 9.2 10.4$500,000 - $749,999 4.6 5.5 6.0 7.5 8.4 9.6$750,000 - $999,999 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.8 2.2 2.6
$1,000,000 + 1.4 1.4 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.2
32%
66%
Austin Sales by Price Distribution
58%
40%
2016-2017 Austin SF Home Sales by Price
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
Jan-
16
Feb-
16
Mar
-16
Apr
-16
May
-16
Jun-
16
Jul-1
6
Aug
-16
Sep-
16
Oct
-16
Nov
-16
Dec
-16
Jan-
17
Feb-
17
Mar
-17
Apr
-17
May
-17
Jun-
17
Jul-1
7
Aug
-17
Sep-
17
Oct
-17
Nov
-17
< $150,000 $150,000 - $199,999 $200,000 - $249,999$300,000 - $399,999 $400,000 - $749,999 > $750,000 $250,000 - $299,999
Austin MSA Active Listings by Price
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
Jan-
16
Feb-
16
Mar
-16
Apr
-16
May
-16
Jun-
16
Jul-1
6
Aug
-16
Sep-
16
Oct
-16
Nov
-16
Dec
-16
Jan-
17
Feb-
17
Mar
-17
Apr
-17
May
-17
Jun-
17
Jul-1
7
Aug
-17
Sep-
17
Oct
-17
Nov
-17
$0 - $69,999 $70,000 - $99,999 $100,000 - $149,999$150,000 - $199,999 $200,000 - $249,999 $250,000 - $299,999$300,000 - $399,999 $400,000 - $499,999 $500,000 - $749,999$750,000 - $999,999 $1,000,000 +
Austin MSA Months Inventory by Price
012345678910111213141516
0123456789
10111213141516
Jan-
16
Feb-
16
Mar
-16
Apr
-16
May
-16
Jun-
16
Jul-1
6
Aug
-16
Sep-
16
Oct
-16
Nov
-16
Dec
-16
Jan-
17
Feb-
17
Mar
-17
Apr
-17
May
-17
Jun-
17
Jul-1
7
Aug
-17
Sep-
17
Oct
-17
Nov
-17
$0 - $69,999 $70,000 - $99,999 $100,000 - $149,999 $150,000 - $199,999$200,000 - $249,999 $250,000 - $299,999 $300,000 - $399,999 $400,000 - $499,999$500,000 - $749,999 $750,000 - $999,999 $1,000,000 +
Williamson Co. Annual Home Sales
6,298
7,739
9,572 9,66610,228
10,55210,053
5,0005,5006,0006,5007,0007,5008,0008,5009,0009,500
10,00010,50011,00011,50012,000
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
17YT
D
+3%+6%+1%+24%
+23%
+4%
2011-2016 +68% Current Months Inventory 2.4
Williamson Co. Median Home Price
$172,270$181,000
$200,000
$221,000
$241,000
$257,500$270,000
$150,000$160,000$170,000$180,000$190,000$200,000$210,000$220,000$230,000$240,000$250,000$260,000$270,000$280,000
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
17YT
D
+7%
+9%
+11%+11%
+5%
+5%
2011-2016 +49%
1,8002,171
2,7973,091
3,3193,554 3,452
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
17YT
D
+7%
+21%
+29% +11%+7%
+6%
Hays Co. Annual Home Sales
2011-2016 +97% Current Months Inventory 2.9
$163,000
$178,338
$192,500
$205,874
$229,000$239,800
$256,990
$150,000$160,000$170,000$180,000$190,000$200,000$210,000$220,000$230,000$240,000$250,000$260,000$270,000
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
17YT
D
+5%
+9%
+8%
+7%
+11%
+8%
Hays Co. Median Home Price
2011-2016 +47%
Austin MSA Percent Change in Home Sales by Zip Code, November 2017
GiddingsAustinBartonCreek
Manor
San Marcos Lockhart
Georgetown
Pflugerville
DrippingSprings
Round Rock
Bastrop
Leander
GiddingsAustinBarton
Creek
Manor
San Marcos Lockhart
Georgetown
Pflugerville
DrippingSprings
Round Rock
Bastrop
Wimberley
Austin MSA Percent Change in Average Price/SF by Zip Code, November 2017
Travis Co. Percent Change Home Sales by Zip Code,November 2017
AustinBartonCreek
ManorWestLake
Lakeway
Pflugerville
Buda
Travis Co. Percent Change Home Price/SF by Zip Code, November 2017
AustinBartonCreek
ManorWestLake
Lakeway
Pflugerville
Buda
Williamson Co. Percent Change Home Sales by Zip Code, November 2017
Georgetown
Round Rock
Leander
HuttoCedar Park
Williamson Co. Percent Change Home Price/SF by Zip Code, November 2017
Georgetown
Round Rock
Leander
Hutto
Cedar Park
Hays Co. Percent Change Home Sales by Zip Code,November 2017
San Marcos
DrippingSprings
Buda
Wimberley
Hays Co. Percent Change Home Price/SF by Zip Code,November 2017
San Marcos
DrippingSprings
Buda
Wimberley
