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NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9-10 20031
ITU Workshop““New generation Networks;New generation Networks;
what, when and how”what, when and how”Geneva 9-10 July 2003
““ICT and NGN: innovation for a better ICT and NGN: innovation for a better
quality of life”quality of life”
Claudio CarrelliDirector Eurescom
NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9-10 20032
Content
• Technology and Networks
• The social impact
• The “digital” world
• Standards and cooperation
• Final conclusions
NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9-10 20033
Three points to remember what went “good”
• The boom of “personal communication”
• The triumph of “networking”
• The new concept of “always on”
NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9-10 20034
And three to remember what went “wrong”
• The bubble “burst”
• The irrational fever of “merges and acquisitions”
• The excessive predominance of “finance” rather than focus on service innovation
NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9-10 20035
Some initial suggestions
• Do not try to “re-create the past”• Concentrate on the opportunities of
“mobile” “broadband” and “multimedia”• Target on innovation and flexibility• Identify and exploit new services for
“home environment” and “infomobility”• Grasp the opportunity of cooperation
even in a competitive environment
NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9-10 20036
Balancing technology and users needs
ICT for a better quality of life
NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9-10 20037
Laser technology
• Invented in the seventies
• Immediately named as a “solution looking for a problem”
• Nowadays no HI-FI music, no letter printing and no more long distance telephone calls without laser technology
NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9-10 20038
The “Tron House”
• The first “intelligent house”
• Completed in in 1989 (Nishi Azabu, Japan)• Key concept: fusion of “humans”, “nature”
and “computers”
• A total of 380 computers, all of them interconnected via the “TRON Architecture”
• Dismantled in '94
NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9-10 20039
The “home” environment
• Will ICT improve our quality of life?
• Yes, it will, if we do not just concentrate on technology
NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9-10 200310
The relevance of “quality of life!”
• The first TV remote control in 1950
• Called “Lazy bones” and wireline
• ..Flashmatic, ..Spacecommand..1956
• Its percentage on price exceeded 30%
• How much would you save today to live without it?
NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9-10 200311
Two main comments on future developments and
key to success
NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9-10 200312
1.Local first, networked follows
• Stereo records and stereo broadcast
• Movies and TV
• Photo and telephoto
• DVD ... HDTV
• Multimedia terminal equipment, and then broadband communication
• Intelligent housewares ….networked home
NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9-10 200313
2.Simplicity will win
• The success of a simpler technology against a more complex one:
• Telephone over telegraph• IP and internet vs ISDN • SMS vs ISDN D-channel• i-mode vs WAP• Blue-tooth vs DECT• ….and what about Wi-Fi?
NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9-10 200314
Network evolution
NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9-10 200315
The basic pillars of telecom networks
• Switching systems (nodes)
• Transmission systems (links)
• Access network
• Terminal equipment
NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9-10 200316
The temple of telecommunications networks
NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9-10 200317
The “Easy Side” of the Problem
• Trunk network• High capacity• Flexible multiplexing• Variable bandwidth
• Customer premises equipment• Advanced multimedia technology• High bandwidth, bursty traffic requirements
NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9-10 200318
… And the More Challenging Issues
• Access network
Copper wire
optical fibre/coax
wireless technology
• Switching technology
synchronous/asynchronous
integrated/overlaid
NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9-10 200319
The temple of telecommunications
networks
NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9-10 200320
The mandatory school (I)
•PCM technology
•Digital transmission
•Digital hierarchy
NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9-10 200321
The mandatory school (II)
•SPC exchanges•Digital switching•Common channel signalling
NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9-10 200322
The mandatory school (III)
•Intelligent networks
•ISDN
•Mobile services
NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9-10 200323
And then,... what new life?
NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9-10 200324
The answer is not so easy!
• ..”total “digitalization”, telecom liberalization, internet, XDSL, DWDM on optical fibre, Wi-Fi, ultra-wide band, SW radio,…
• The impact of disruptive elements has radically altered the old approach mainly oriented to follow a predetermined path
NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9-10 200325
The evolving role of ...Telcos
• Voltage carriers (telegraph)
• Frequency carriers (telephony)
• Bit carriers (digital era)
• Information networking (middleware platforms)
• Domotics, infomobility and infotainement (new services at home and on the road)
NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9-10 200326
We live in a digital world
• All type of information, no matter if voice, data, text, music, video, image, or other, may be reduced to a “handful of bits”
• And these bits can be:
• processed
• transmitted or
• stored
NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9-10 200327
The big competition in the ICT game
• Storage capacity
• Processing power
• Transmission capacity
• Is it cheaper a stored bit, a processed bit or a travelling bit?
• How will its cost vary with time?
NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9-10 200328
A weaving of laws
• Moore’s law• Gilder’s law• Metcalf’s law• Telecosm’s law• Amdahl’s law• Conduits and content law• …..• And what new role for IP?
NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9-10 200329
What impact on network architecture?
• A well known rule of thumb:
• Transmission is cheap:
circuit switching
• Processing is cheap:
packet switching
NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9-10 200330
The Paradox of the “best network”
• Intelligent networks have been continuously upgraded and optimized for voice services
• But…today's optimization might be .. tomorrow's bottleneck
• Should a network be “intelligent” or “stupid”?• The best network just moves bits • But ….. the best network is the hardest one
to make money running
NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9-10 200331
What future: fix or mobile?
• The future will be more and more in the fixed network,…..
• …but the growing wireless access will give us the impression to be mobile
A provocative view
NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9-10 200332
WN
PWC
02 1log
C = Capacity [kbit/s]P = Signal PowerW = BandwidthN0 = Noise
NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9-10 200333
The myth of Broadband
NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9-10 200334
A provocative view
• Broadband already exists
• It is spread everywhere
• Consumers like it
• It is very cheap
• ….it is Television!!
• …. but it is mainly broadcast!
NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9-10 200335
The illusion of the value of the Mbyte
NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9-10 200336
What pricing strategy?
• Eyes and networks use different measuring sticks.
• It is important to grasp this difference if we want to make money.
• The cost of a service is related to the network complexity needed to deliver it,
• ...but its price must be related to the value human eyes put on it.
NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9-10 200337
Rethinking R&D
• R&D is a major driver for value
• The relevance to develop “options”
We must crack a lot of rock to find a diamond
• Collaborative R&D through networking will become critical, particularly due to lack of human and financial resources
NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9-10 200338
EURESCOMEURESCOM
A Virtual Company for Collaborative R&D
www.eurescom.de
NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9-10 200339
EURESCOM Providing Network Solutions
• Access Networks - Increasing the bandwidth
• In House Networks - Supporting the Customer
• Core Networks - Optimising the infrastructure
• New Aspects - new concepts (e.g. always on)
NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9-10 200340
The relevance of access
• The frontier of inequality will be no more between:
• rich and poor• capital and human resources
• cities and rural areas
• But,….…between who
• “has” and who “has not” access to the netUNO Dev. report
NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9-10 200341
Four messages
• Do not be dogmatic: deploy present technology and monitor its evolution!!
• Avoid the “network-centric” approach and concentrate on “human centredness”
• ICT technologies will enable a variety of applications for a better quality of life
• Be proactive on future developmentBroadband and mobile
revolutions are ready to take off..
NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9-10 200342
Thank you for your attention
Enjoy your Workshop!