Ni Yunqi Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather State Key...
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Ni Yunqi Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather State Key Basic Research Development Program SCHeREX Plan(2007-2009) SCHeREX Plan(2007-2009) --South China Heavy --South China Heavy Rainfall Rainfall Experiment Experiment
Ni Yunqi Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather State Key Basic Research Development Program SCHeREX Plan(2007-2009)
Ni Yunqi Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences State Key
Laboratory of Severe Weather State Key Basic Research Development
Program SCHeREX Plan(2007-2009) SCHeREX Plan(2007-2009) --South
China Heavy Rainfall Experiment Rainfall Experiment
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1.Heavy Rainfall is Main Weather Disaster in China
Slide 3
The heavy rainfall is the major weather disasters in south of
China.The yearly mean grain lost by flooding disasters in recently
10 years in mainland of China is 20 billion Kg and 20 billion RMB
in property damage responding to 3-6% GDP
Slide 4
Days of heavy rainfall is increased in the middle and
downstream of Yangtze river since 1990s Days of heavy rainfall is
increased as same as above Days of heavy rainfall is decreased in
northern China since 70s. New studies showed that
Slide 5
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1961-2003 17 mm Mann-Kendall - 90 (b) (a)
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2 It is also difficult to predict heavy rainfall by using the
numerical model.
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The capability of forecasting heavy rainfall by using numerical
model is still lower. Ts score for AREM model in 2003 summer
AREM_3Dvar meso-scale model HLAFS0.25 operational regional model
regional model T213 Global model
Slide 9
Why ? 1 three dimensional structure, formation mechanism and
physical processes of the convective systems with meso scale still
is not very clear.
Slide 10
2 We cant provide a initial condition involving a lot of meso-
scale information for numerical model.
Slide 11
If we want to really understand meso-scale convective systems
and improve capability of forecasting heavy rainfall we have to get
the data as follows: 1) the meteorological data described three
dimensional structure of meso-scale convective system and its
variation; 2) parameters of micro-physical processes of inside of
could.
Slide 12
2. Objectives, experimental regions and periods
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1) Objectives 1) Establish a high-space resolution meso-scale
observation net with adaptive function; 2) Obtained high time-space
resolution meteorological database which can described three
dimensional structure of meso-scale system; 3)develping a
meso-scale reanalysis system and forming a high time-space
resolution reanalysis meteorological fields; 4) improve heavy
rainfall prediction by using this database with real time.
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2) Experimental region The experimental region includes the
provinces located in southern China and middle and down stream of
Yangtze River. It is related to more than ten provinces in South
China.
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3) Experimental period It is May- July in 2007 /2008 and maybe
extended to 2009.
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3. Design of observation network with meso-scale
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1) Design of meso scale- observation network
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CHeREX Experiment Areas
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CHeREX Four Experiment Areas Huihe Obs.region Central China
Delta Obs. Region Southern China Region
2) Design of meso scale- observation network in Southern
China
Slide 22
Distribution of annual mean heavy rainfall days in
Guandong
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Guandong Province meso-scale observation region
EquipmentsNumber Doppler radar operational6 Movable2 Sounding
station Operational6 GPS sounding/boundary layer 10 Wind profile3
Surface stationsoperational30 Auto-stations 300 GPS/moisture
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(3) Movable Observation Systems
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154 (11900m )
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35G /20Km
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3830 3830J Movable C-band Doppler Radar
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Wind Profile
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SCHeREX Movable observation system constructed by 1) A airborne
drapsounde 2 A movable polirized Doppler Radar with X band; 3 A
movable cloud radar with 8mm band 4 A wind profile and a movable
sounding station.
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4 Using remote sensing retrieval data make up lack of data,
especially in the ocean areas.
Slide 35
We can retrieval three dimension structure of meso-scale heavy
rainfall systems by using remote sensing technique from the former
state 973 project. Therefore, we analyze and understand moving and
developing of meso-scale heavy rainfall systems by using the
products provided by the remote sensing technique.
Slide 36
A C B 0600 UTC 22 June 2002 Wind driven from clouds at
200-300hpa
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Analysis using remote sensing retrieval data for three
dimensional temperature & moisture structure of meso-scale
system
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60 80KM Retrieval area of dual-Doppler radars 30 150 0
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CAPPI 1km 2km 3km PPI 11 22 33 44 Retrieval layers in vertical
for dual-Doppler radars
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112 113114 115 22 23 24 23 00113 21 22 33114 06 22 15114 08 22
10113 33 23 44114 14 23 05114 25 Dual-Doppler Radar Network in
Southern China meso Obs. Region in Southern China meso Obs.
Region
Slide 45
It is conducted as three dimensional structure observation
network with meso- scale resolution based on ground-base, air-base
and space-base remote sensing techniques.
Slide 46
Movable Observing System Satellite Radar on plane Drop sounding
Processing & Prediction system Movable radar Operation
radar
Slide 47
4. Sensitive Areas for Prediction of Heavy Rainfall and Target
Observation
Slide 48
1) Decision of sensitive areas for prediction of meso-scale
heavy rainfall : The sensitive areas for prediction of heavy
rainfall involve the upstream region of the heavy rainfall system
and the moisture transportation way to the south of the heavy
rainfall system. Implement the target observation: Intensive
observation region= The sensitive areas + Prediction area
Slide 49
5. Database and data share of SCHeREX
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6. Headquarters of SCHeREX
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SCHeREX Leaders group SCHeREX Headquarters SCHeREX Office
Working group Of meso scale Obs. Working group Of Data processing
Working group of Analysis of satellite remote sensing Working group
Of database Working group of Quick look & analysis of low
frequency Working group of reanalysis & prediction Headquarters
Organization Flow Chart
Slide 54
7. International Collaboration
Slide 55
1.Japan: Institute of Observation Research for Global
Change/JAMSTEC, Dr. Yoshizaki Masanori group. 2. Korea: School of
Earth and Environmental Sciences of Seoul National University,
Prof. Dong-Kyou Lee. 3. United States: (1) University of Marland,
Prof.Da-Lin Zhang; (2) Texas A & M University, Prof.Fuqin
Zhang; (3) University of Miami, Dr.Shuyi Chen.
Slide 56
8. Conclusion & Discussion
Slide 57
1.In order to obtain high-resolution with time & space
three dimensional data we will implement the field experiment of
heavy rainfall in southern China in May-July 2007/2009
2.Characteristics of SCHeREX are (1) establish dual-Doppler
observation network with four operational Doppler radars and two
movable Doppler radars; (2) implement dropsonde detecting from air
plane; (3) Using dual polarized Doppler radar to detect the
parameters inside of cloud; (4) Increasing sounding density in
space by using GPS/boundary layer sounding.
Slide 58
3. It is necessary to us satellite remote sensing to increase
meso-scale observed information including COSMIC; 4. In this
experiment we have to develop meso-scale reanalysis system and
assimilation and integration different kinds of observed data. As a
result, The meso- scale reanalysis field is formed; 5. We must
develop interact system between observation system and prediction
system. 6. The data from SCHeREX should be shared under certain
condition.