Nigeria: Human Insecurity

UNLocK Report 15

Human Insecurity in Nigeria

October 2011 - April 2012

The Fund for Peace is an independent, nonpartisan, 501(c)(3) non-profit research and educational

organization that works to prevent violent conflict and promote sustainable security. We promote

sustainable security through research, training and education, engagement of civil society,

building bridges across diverse sectors, and developing innovative technologies and tools for

policy makers. A leader in the conflict assessment and early warning field, the Fund for Peace

focuses on the problems of weak and failing states. Our objective is to create practical tools and

approaches for conflict mitigation that are useful to decision-makers.

Copyright © 2012 The Fund for Peace.

All rights reserved.

No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent from The Fund for Peace.

The Fund for Peace Conflict Early Warning and Assessment Produced with the assistance of The Institute of Human Rights and Humanitarian Law

UNLocK Reports Series Editor

Nate Haken

Report Written by

Natalie Manning

Megan Turner

Amelia Whitehead

The Fund for Peace Publication FFP : CUNGR1212 (Version 07C)

Circulation: PUBLIC

The Fund for Peace

1720 I Street NW

7th Floor

Washington, D.C. 20006

T: +1 202 223 7940

F: +1 202 223 7947

www.fundforpeace.org

2 The Fund for Peace www.fundforpeace.org

55th Anniversary 1957-2012

Introduction & Contents

This report was compiled by Natalie

Manning, Amelia Whitehead, and Megan

Turner under the supervision of Nate Haken,

Senior Associate at The Fund for Peace.

UNLocK partners with local civil society in

conflict-affected regions for better conflict

early warning, assessment and prevention by

integrating local knowledge into CAST, FFP’s

conflict assessment and early warning

methodology. The program, Conflict Early

Warning and Assessment, is made possible

with funding from the National Endowment

for Democracy. The statements and views

expressed are solely the responsibility of The

Fund for Peace.

Summary 4

Methodology 5

Analysis by Select Indicators 6

State-by-State Analysis 11

Timeline 14

Looking Ahead 15

About The Fund for Peace 16


UNLocK Nigeria

Overview

Comparative Periodic Analysis

32

24

16

8

0

Demographic P

ressu

res

Refugees a

nd ID

Ps

Group Grie

vance

Human Flig

ht a

nd Brain

Uneven Economic D

evelopment

Economic P

ressu

res

State Legitim

acy

Public S

ervice

s

Human Rights a

nd Rule of L

aw

Security

Apparatus

Factio

nalize

d Elite

s

External In

terventio

n

40

Percentage of Reports by Indicator

March 2011 - September


Numbers represent a percentage of documents by period.

March 2011 - September 2011 vs. October 2011 - April 2012

UNLocK Nigeria

Summary and Findings


As Goodluck Jonathan begins his new

term as President of Nigeria, he faces many

challenges. Even as a fragile peace takes

hold in the Niger Delta, gang violence and

criminality continue unabated. In the North,

Boko Haram, an Islamist terrorist group,

continues to wreak havoc. Though the

government has taken some steps towards

strengthening the democratic process,

instances of corruption and vote rigging have

been reported at the state and local levels

over the past seven months. The Nigerian

government, civil society, and other

stakeholders must take steps to address

these governance and security issues, or risk

further instability in the future.

This report compiles the incidents and issues

documented by civil society representatives

in the UNLocK Nigeria early warning network

from October 2011 to April 2012, with a

particular focus on the state and local

government area levels of Rivers, Akwa Ibom,

Delta and Kaduna.

Incidents and issues summarized here

include election irregularities surrounding

gubernatorial elections, such as political

corruption and intimidation, as well as social

and economic pressures relating to land

competition, group grievance and violent

crime. These incidents and issues are

categorized according to the Conflict

Assessment System Tool (CAST) framework,

which allows for a holistic evaluation of the

pressures on society and the state that could

increase the risk of instability.

As is evident from the comparative periodic

analysis on the previous page, pressures

relating to the Security Apparatus and State

Legitimacy were less frequently reported in

this period than were reported in the

previous election and post-election period.

Pressures associated with Public Services and

Human Rights, however, have been more

frequently reported in this time period than

in the previous, as a percentage of the total

number of incidents.

This report does not presume to be

comprehensive or evenly distributed from

one indicator or location to another. Rather, it

provides a glimpse into the concerns and

perspectives of a particular network of civil

society organizations, trained in conflict

assessment, most of which are based in the

Niger Delta region, Kaduna, and Lagos.

Findings

This is the fifth summary report for

UNLocK Nigeria. This report covers incidents

logged during a seven month period (October

1 2011 – April 1 2012) by participating civil

society organizations. It is organized by

indicator, with maps showing affected states

and local government areas.

Broken down by indicator and state, there

were 101 reports logged during this period.

Of the 12 CAST indicators (see page 3 for a

list of the indicators), reports relating to

Human Rights were the most prevalent (41

reports), followed by those pertaining to

State Legitimacy (34 reports), Public Services

(27 reports), Security Apparatus (26 reports),

Group Grievance (9 reports), Factionalized

Elites (8 reports), Demographic Pressure (8

reports), Poverty and Economic Decline (7

reports), Human Flight (3 reports) and Uneven

Economic Development (2 reports).

Geographically, the vast majority of reports

came from the South-South geopolitical zone,

followed by the South-West and the North-

West zones, in order of frequency. Most of

the participating organizations are based in

the South-South.

The majority of participating organizations

focus on human and civil rights, which

influences the types of reports that they

contribute. This summary therefore provides

a rich description of the political and socio-

economic climate in these areas over the last

7 months, as seen by a specific network of

civil society organizations focused in the

Niger Delta region.


About the Program

Between October 2011 and April

2012, The Fund for Peace and the Institute

for Human Rights and Humanitarian Law held

three UNLocK workshops in Port Harcourt,

which were attended by representatives from

dozens of local civil society organizations.

During these workshops, participants

reviewed and contextualized CAST (FFP’s

conflict assessment framework) to make it

relevant to the local conflict landscape.

Members contribute incident reports to the

UNLocK database on an ongoing basis.

The goals of the project include fostering a

civil society-led conflict early warning and

prevention process, documenting events and

incidents, gathering data from across the

country (with an emphasis on the Niger Delta

region so far), and facilitating communication

between members of the network for the

purposes of data processing and analysis.

This information can be used for the crafting

of conflict-sensitive approaches to

development, as well as policies for medium-

to long-term conflict mitigation initiatives.

Since the UNLocK early warning system was

first established in Nigeria in 2007, over 766

incident reports (categorized by indicator and

by state) have been entered into the

database. The data generated by the

participants has been saved on a password-

protected website, which is accessible to

participants for their own analysis and for the

corroboration of details to ensure accuracy.

Indicators

Economy

Demographic Pressures

Human Flight/Brain Drain

Refugees or Displaced Persons

Group Grievance

Uneven Development Legitimacy of the State

Public Services

Human Rights

Security Apparatus

Factionalized Elites

External Intervention

The 12 CAST indicators for which data is sought include social, economic, and political/military pressures on the state:

Social Economic Political/Military


UNLocK Nigeria

Methodology

A Focus on Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Delta

and Kaduna States

This report focuses on the Akwa Ibom, Rivers,

Delta, and Kaduna states between the

months of October 2011 and April 2012.

Reports from Akwa Ibom mostly dealt with

election irregularities and the intimidation of

political opposition during the gubernatorial

election. Reports from Rivers State related to

abductions, police corruption and sexual

violence. Reports from Delta State

pertained mainly to robbery and violent

crime. The majority of reports from Kaduna

State related to non-state armed militias.

Pages 10-13 provide a breakdown of the

data from those four states.

Reported Demographic Pressures

Nigerian law grants the Governors of

each State significant control over land

administration, which has contributed

to several conflicts between local inhabitants

and government officials. Incidents have

included cases where the state has claimed

farmland for large-scale development

projects.

• In Rivers State, A report logged in February

2012 highlighted the ongoing conflict

between the Ogoni In Khana LGA and the

Rivers State government, which is

attempting to establish a banana

plantation run by a Mexican firm, Union De

Iniciativa S.A De C.V.

• A similar issue is faced by the Omunobo

community in Rivers State, as their land

has reportedly been compulsorily acquired

by the state for the construction of a

highway linking Port Harcourt to the

international airport nearby.

• Illegal logging by state officials in the

same region has reportedly threatened

residents’ livelihoods by destroying many

of the area’s mangrove forests.

Apart from competition over land, other

demographic pressures reported during this

period included flooding and environmental

degradation.

Analysis

Select Indicators

Reported Group Grievance

Nigeria is culturally rich with a diverse

population from many ethnic and

religious backgrounds. In a context

where there is competition for resources and

influence, there has sometimes been tension

and grievance along group lines. The 1999

constitution established the Federal

Character Commission, an institution

regulating the distribution of “indigeneship

certificates”, the possession of which can

determine, among other things, one’s ability

to vote and to attend school in the area. Oil

extraction, in conjunction with high

unemployment rates, endemic poverty, and

the proliferation of small arms, has

exacerbated the complex social tensions

around identity and indigeneity, contributing

to a number of conflicts across the country.

• In Akwa Ibom State, local youth led a

protest against an oil company’s

employment of non-indigenes over

natives, disrupting production.

• Conflict over indigeneity again erupted in

the same region when an unknown

gunman killed one man and wounded

several others due to a dispute over land.

• Tensions between the Muslim North and

the Christian South also increase the risk of

conflict onset. In January 2012, local

youths in the Delta State’s Ughelli North

LGA committed several crimes directed at

Northerners, including cattle rustling and

assault. A similar incident was reported in

Rivers during the previous time period.

The Islamist militant group, Boko Haram, has

also targeted Christians as part of its

bombing campaign, as in April 2012, when a

suicide bomber allegedly affiliated with the

group attempted to destroy a local church in

Kaduna.

Nigeria


Nigeria

7

32

Nigeria

Akwa Ibom Bayelsa

Akwa Ibom Rivers

Delta

Kaduna

Reported Pressures on State Legitimacy

State legitimacy was the second most

reported indicator for this period.

Election irregularities were reported

in Akwa Ibom and Bayelsa, as were the arrest

of protestors and police corruption.

Election Irregularities in the Gubernatorial

Government Elections:

Multiple reports in Akwa Ibom related to bias

against female local election candidates.

Party chiefs and community elders reportedly

disqualified candidates based on their

gender. Other reports alleged intimidation

against the supporters of female candidates.

Protests:

• In Delta, workers at the Delta State Oil

Producing Areas Development Commission

were reportedly unable to enter the

building for two days when demonstrators

seized control of the premises. The

demonstrators were reportedly protesting

the alleged misappropriation of federal

funding that was intended for the purchase

of wheelchairs and crutches for the

disabled.

• In Abia, women protesters were reportedly

arrested after peacefully demonstrating

against the rape of a university student.

• In January, the government’s decision to

eliminate federal fuel subsidies resulted in

widespread protests across the country. In

Rivers, demonstrators took to the streets

for ten days to protest the removal of the

subsidies.

Corruption:

• There were numerous reports of

corruption, particularly relating to local

police forces. In Rivers, police officers

reportedly stopped cars and taxi drivers in

order to demand bribes. On several

occasions, when drivers refused to comply,

their keys were taken and they were badly

beaten. Passengers in taxicabs and buses

whose drivers refused to pay were forced

to disembark.

• In Rivers, it was reported that charges

against a man accused of raping a young

girl were dropped after the alleged

perpetrator bribed the police.

Analysis: Select Indicators


Nigeria

7

Abia

Akwa Ibom Bayelsa

Delta Imo

Rivers

Reported Human Rights Violations

Most reports in this indicator

pertained to child abuse. Other issues

included kidnapping, especially for

ransom, and sexual violence.

• In Bayelsa State, there were several cases

of violent abuse against children, some of

which resulted in the child’s death. In one

instance, a young girl was taken to a local

children’s shelter after she was severely

beaten by her father. Numerous reports of

rape were also filed, many of which

resulted in the victim contracting HIV/

AIDS.

• Several women were reportedly gang

raped by gang members and criminals. In

Rivers, four teenagers were arrested for

breaking into homes and raping women. A

young woman in Rivers State died after a

group of men broke into her house and

sexually assaulted her.

• Kidnapping for ransom was reported in

several states (see Security Apparatus).

Nigeria


19

Reported Factionalized Elites

All reports of Factionalized Elites

during this period dealt with

intimidation of the political

opposition during the run-up to the Bayelsa

local elections.

• One candidate was severely wounded and

his family killed by cult groups. Another

candidate was reportedly arrested by

police on false charges, and subsequently

shot and killed in prison. A further three

candidates were reportedly suspended

over alleged misconduct one day prior to

the launch of their political campaigns.

• Clashes broke out in Bayelsa between two

groups supporting opposing candidates.

Five people were reportedly killed in the

incident.

Nigeria


Abia

Akwa Ibom Bayelsa

Imo

Rivers

Bayelsa

Reported Pressures on Security Apparatus

The presence of Non-State Armed

Groups undermined security in

Nigeria during this time period,

particularly cult groups and organized crime,

political thugs, and militants. There were also

reports that public security officials

sometimes abused their power. Below is a

graph showing the trend in UNLocK reports of

abductions over the last two years. Indeed,

abductions are a major problem in the Niger

Delta. According to police reports, in 2011

there were over 350 cases in Delta State

alone.

• In Bayelsa State, cult violence led to a

number of deaths. Cult violence has

reportedly escalated due to the ease with

which cult members, usually students, can

gather arms. One participant reported that

a student used his money for school fees

to purchase arms. Cult violence sometimes

spills over into nearby towns. After a

shooting battle between two cult groups in

Yenagoa, for instance, violence spread to

nearby towns.

• In Abia State, a group of thugs, suspected

to be loyalists of the ruling PDP, reportedly

stormed the state headquarters of the

Progressive Peoples Alliance during a party

secretariat meeting. Party faithfuls were

abducted and property was looted and

damaged. Policemen responsible for

protecting the secretariat had reportedly

left the building just before the attack

occurred.

• Also in Abia State, the Anti-Terrorist Squad

stationed at the council secretariat in

Agboko was accused of harassing local

government employees.

• The leader of a cult gang was reportedly

shot dead by a suspected rival gang in

Delta. It was reported that the man was

shot at close range, in his chest, about five

times. The shooters escaped in a vehicle.

• The militant group, Boko Haram, terrorized

residents in the North. On Sardwana Road

in Kaduna, members of the group

attempted to bomb a church by packing

the car they were driving with explosives.

The car was turned away by church

security and police officers, but exploded

several kilometers down the road, killing

40 people.

• A bomb blast was also reported in a

Kaduna motor park, killing a further 50

people.

• In Akwa Ibom, a kidnapping ring was

discovered, run by a serving counsellor

from Ibiono. The ring was linked to a

number of incidents, including the

kidnapping of another counsellor from the

same LGA. After the counsellor was

arrested, members of his gang reportedly

killed the police informant.

• There were multiple kidnappings reported

in Rivers. Gunmen abducted the elderly

mother of a State Assembly leader, and

demanded a twenty million dollar ransom

for her release. Kidnappers in Abia

abducted a two year old boy for ransom;

when confronted, the kidnappers

abandoned the boy in a forest where he

was later discovered by locals.

• A reported ringleader of kidnappings in

Delta State, the chairman of the Anti-

Kidnapping Task Force, has been arrested



Nigeria

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2010 2011

Reported Abductions 2010-2011

Predominantly Rivers State

Predominantly Akwa Ibom

Crisis in Abia

Abia

Akwa Ibom Bayelsa

Delta

Kaduna

Rivers

Reported Pressures on Public Services

One of the most important public

services provided by the state is

ensuring a functional and legitimate police

force for promoting peace, protecting human

security and ensuring respect for human

rights and the rule of law. This is especially

important in post-conflict or fragile states,

when a state is vulnerable to lapsing into

conflict. In Nigeria, there is a lack of public

trust and confidence in the police force.

Reports of police corruption and abuse

included the following:

• In Rivers State, police reportedly went on a

shooting rampage after shooting and

killing a suspected thief. The police started

to shoot at random when on-lookers

protested the thief’s killing.

• In Kaduna State, a popular entertainer was

reportedly shot and killed by a policeman.

The shooting reportedly occurred after the

man went to his community leader’s home

to clear his name in relation to a case of

theft. While he waited to speak to the

community leader, four policemen arrived

in a vehicle. One of the officers shot him in

the stomach. At the time the incident was

reported, the case was before the Federal

High Court.

• Also in Kaduna State, a policeman

reportedly shot a man in the stomach

without due cause.

• In Bayelsa State, a twenty-year old man

was reportedly shot and killed by police

officers at a check point after refusing the

pay a bribe. The three officers were

subsequently arrested.

• In Lagos State, a policeman stopped a bus

driver who was in the process of pulling

over to pick up passengers. With his gun,

the officer broke the bus’ side mirror and

ordered passengers off the bus. Another

police officer managed to control the

situation.



Nigeria

Bayelsa

Kaduna

Lagos

Rivers

Delta

Analysis

The States


Nigeria

Abia

Akwa Ibom Bayelsa

Delta

Kaduna

Lagos

Rivers

Rivers is located in the South-South

region, between Akwa Ibom and Bayelsa.

Primarily due to oil, Rivers boasts one of

Nigeria’s largest state economies, yet the

benefits of this rarely trickle down to

citizens. With 41 reports, Rivers had the

largest number of reports during this period.

Within Rivers State, the Local Government

Area with the most reported incidents was

Port Harcourt with 18 reports, followed by

Ikwerre with 6 reports, Obio/Akpor, Ahoada

East, Khana, Ogba/Egbma/Ndoni with 2

reports, and Gokana and Eleme with 1 report

respectively.

Port Harcourt: Police corruption, robbery and

human flight were reported.

• There were several cases of police officers

stopping cars and demanding bribes.

• Two bank robberies were reported in

which several people were killed.

• Skilled workers are reportedly leaving Port

Harcourt because of the lack of career

opportunities.

Ikwerre: There were reports of violent crime

and corruption, among other issues.

• A mentally disabled man was beaten and

killed by crowd of people at an

intersection after he stood in the middle of

the road.

• A family of four, including a pregnant

woman, were burned to death in a house

fire after a tanker exploded near their

home.

• There were reports of a governor forcefully

taking land without compensating land

owners.

Obio/Akpor: Robbery, violent crime and child

abuse were reported.

• Armed robbers killed three policemen

after stealing money from a vehicle they

had stopped.

Rivers

Rivers State

20

0

40

Kwara

Lagos

Abia

Akwa Ib

om Bayelsa

Rivers

Kaduna

Delta

Reports by State for the Reporting Period

Obio/ Akpor

Port Harcourt

Ikwerre

Khana Gokana

Ahoad

a Ea

st

Ogba/Egbema/Ndoni

Akwa Ibom State had the second most

reports for this period with 17 incident

reports. Many of these reports relate to the

child abuse, kidnappings and corruption

surrounding local elections. The largest

number of incident reports came from the

capital of Akwa Ibom, Uyo, which had 5

reports, followed by Etinan, Esit Eket and Ikot

Ekpene with 2 reports, and Ikot Abasi, Ibeno

and Udung Uko with 1 report, respectively.

Uyo: Most the reports concerned robbery,

kidnappings and child abuse.

• Six men broke into a house and robbed it,

threatening to rape the occupants.

• A senior council chair was kidnapped and

only released after a ransom was paid.

Etinan: Child abuse and corruption were

reported.

• A ten year old boy was found living on his

own after he was abandoned by his

parents. He had been living alone for five

years.

• An aspiring councillor reported that her

supporters were chased from polling

booths and votes were faked to ensure she

lost the primary round.

Esit Eket: Protests and land disputes were

reported.

• A group of women blocked access to a gas

company in protest of the negative effect

the company had on their livelihoods.

• Two gunman shot and wounded several

people during a land dispute between two

communities.

Ikot Ekpene: There were reports concerning

corruption surrounding the local elections.

One candidate reportedly won the primaries

because of her relationship with Akwa Ibom’s

first lady. Another female candidate reported

foul play on behalf of the community elders

and chiefs.

Ibeno: Gunmen reportedly attacked a Mobil

oil production site.

Udung Uko: There was a report detailing an

incident in which a women gained the

majority of the votes in a local election, but

another candidate was announced the

winner.

Akwa Ibom State

Analysis: State-by-State


Akwa Ibom

• A five year old was reportedly flogged to

death by her stepmother.

Khana: There were reports of protests and

violent crime.

• The Ogani women in Khana protested

against the government’s forceful

acquisition of their land.

Ahoada East: Human flight and child abuse

was reported.

• A large number of young people are

leaving their communities to wealthier

areas.

• A 13 year-old girl was reportedly raped by

a man who had escaped from prison.

Gokana and Eleme: Organized crime and

child abuse was reported.

• A councilor reportedly paid a group of

young boys to beat a carpenter to death.

He has since been arrested.

• A community chief was arrested for raping

a ten year-old girl. He was released after

reportedly bribing police.

Ogba/Egbema/Ndoni: The mother of a State

Assembly member was abducted.

Uyo

Etinan

Esit Eket

Ikot Ekpene

Ibeno

Udung Uko


Delta is located in the South-South

region of Nigeria, next to Edo and Rivers

States. Delta is the second major oil

producing state after Rivers, and boasts many

other natural resources. Many of the reports

relate to cult violence and other violent

crime. There were 13 reports for Delta for

this period. The Local Government Areas with

the most reports were Warri South, with 6

reports, followed by Oshimilli with 3 reports,

and Ughelli North and Uvwie with 1 report

each.

Warri South: There were reports concerning

robbery and violent crime, especially

between cult gangs.

• A community youth leader, in an attack

against a cult group, reportedly shot and

killed 14 people. Many of those who were

killed were innocent spectators, including

a 12 year-old girl. The shooter was freed

from prison after he bribed a policeman.

• A cult leader was shot dead by an opposing

cult in Warri South.

• Robbery incidents have reportedly

increased.

• The Commissioner of Health was accused

of hitting a female nurse, which led to a

nurses’ strike.

Oshimili South: An explosion was reported in

an urban area. A group of people reportedly

used dynamite to blow up the base of a cell

tower.

Ughelli North: There were reports of cattle

rustling. The same youths involved in this

were also accused of stopping cars for bribes.

Uvwie: Tension was reported within the

Ekpan Development Committee, a committee

responsible for the economic and

development affairs of the community. The

leaders reportedly tried to amend the

community constitution without following

the correct process, causing concern among

community elites.

Delta

Delta State

Analysis: State-by-State

Warri South

Oshimili South

Ughelli North

Uvwie

Akwa Ibom PDP Primary Kaduna Bomb

Rainy Season Bayelsa Gubernatorial Elections Occupy Nigeria Protests

Bayelsa PDP Gubernatorial Primaries


Rivers: Several policemen reportedly killed by armed

robbers in an attack on a bullion van.

Delta: A former CPP governorship candidate was arrested,

shot, and left for dead at a police station.

Bayelsa: Five people were killed during cult clashes. Residents alleged the incident could be related to the upcoming gubernatorial election.

Abia: Several women

were arrested by police

after peacefully protest-

ing the rape of a student

at the state university.

October November December

Delta: Protesters reportedly locked

workers out of the Delta State Oil

Producing Area Development

Commission for two days.

Akwa Ibom: Semi-skilled workers of oil/gas companies protested the lack of local employment.

Timeline: 2011

Rivers: Multiple armed robberies reportedly left several people dead.

Rivers: Guns were report-edly fired between Fulani herdsmen and community members in Ubima.

Kaduna: A bomb was set off by Boko Haram killing over fifty people.

Timeline: 2012 January February March April

Delta: Cult violence reported.

Rivers: Multiple cases of sexual violence and child abuse reported.

Lagos: A flood left many families homeless and without property. Rivers: There is a reported

increase of police extorting money from taxi drivers.

Rivers: The Nigerian govern-

ment removed the fuel subsidy

leading to ten days of protests.

Bayelsa: A surge in cult vio-

lence kills several, particularly

in Amassoma. Akwa Ibom: Female coun-cillorship aspirants re-ported foul play in the PDP primaries in Uruan, Ikot Ekpene, and Ikot Abasi.

Bayelsa: Four people killed in cult violence days prior to the primaries.

Akwa Ibom: Women in Edo community of Esit Eket blocked the access road to a gas processing facility

Abia: The National Union of Local Government Employ-ees (NULGE) complained of harassment from the Anti-Terror Squad.

Akwa Ibom: Gunmen

reportedly attacked a

Mobile vessel.

Rivers: Mother of state assembly deputy majority leader abducted.

Delta: Violence reported

between Fulani nomads and

community members.

Delta: Increased numbers of abductions reported. Head of anti-kidnapping squad arrested in conjunc-tion with the surge in abductions.

UNLocK Nigeria

Timeline

UNLocK Nigeria

Conclusion

Looking Ahead

From the point of view of some

observers, the threat posed by insecurity in

Nigeria is much reduced. The Amnesty

Program in the Niger Delta has brought down

attacks on oil facilities. And for all the horror

posed by Boko Haram in the North, those

militants have not been able to interrupt

business to a degree that puts much pressure

on the state.

But from the point of view of human security,

the threat of violence continues unabated.

Unfortunately, the government does not have

as much incentive to deal with human

security as it does threats against the state.

When the government’s budget is not

dependent on a broad tax base, (oil and gas

make up 80 percent of government revenue)

there is less accountability with respect to

the concerns of the average person.

In the Niger Delta, militants are no longer

attacking state assets. However, youth are

still being recruited into cult groups at an

alarming rate, particularly in Delta, Rivers,

and Bayelsa states. These cult groups serve

as a gateway into worse forms of criminality

including abductions, murders, bank

robberies, political thuggery, and intra-

communal violence.

According to police reports, in 2011 there

were over 350 cases of abduction in Delta

State alone. Incidents reported by the

UNLocK network in Nigeria speak to

continued conflict between and among

communities. Within communities, there is

violence between the youth and the elders.

Youth believe their elders have been co-

opted by the oil companies. The elders

believe the youth are trouble-makers out to

undermine traditional values and leadership.

Between communities, there is violence over

resources and land, often exacerbated by the

presence of oil fields, which raise the stakes

on these disputes. Cult groups fight with one

another. Violence breaks out between the

public security forces and criminal groups.

In the midst of all of this, Nigerian men,

women, and children suffer. Conflict causes

prices to rise and incomes to fall. Traditional

livelihoods are less profitable than before.

People live in fear. Government

accountability is low. Traditional governance

structures lack the authority and legitimacy

to deal with these issues.

A relatively free and fair presidential election

in 2011 did not solve these problems. There

are still problems of accountability, and deep

problems of human insecurity. As highlighted

in this report, between October 2011 and

April 2012, there were incidents of election

irregularities and violence at the

gubernatorial levels in Akwa Ibom and

Bayelsa. Frequently reported incidents

included political intimidation and vote

rigging. There were a number of reports

relating to bad policing, including police

brutality and corruption. Nigeria remains one

of the most unequal countries in the world.

The population continues to live in poverty,

despite the vast amounts of oil resources in

the Niger Delta region. Public services are

dismal.

Boko Haram has exacerbated tension

between Muslims and Christians, northerners

and southerners. In the past year, there have

even been a few reports of violence against

northerners in Rivers and Delta states, as

these national-level tensions have escalated.

Such violence against northerners in the

South-South is unusual and must be watched

closely.

Perhaps the solution is building social

capital among average Nigerians so that

spoilers and special interests cannot hijack

the agenda of the state. Civil society must be

energized and empowered so their voices are

heard.


About

The Fund for Peace

Conflict Early Warning and Assessment

Transnational Threats

Sustainable Development, Sustainable Security

The Fund for Peace is an

independent, nonpartisan, 501(c)(3) non-

profit research and educational organization

that works to prevent violent conflict and

promote sustainable security.

We promote sustainable security through

research, training and education, engagement

of civil society, building bridges across

diverse sectors, and developing innovative

technologies and tools for policy makers.

A leader in the conflict assessment and early

warning field, the Fund for Peace focuses on

the problems of weak and failing states. Our

objective is to create practical tools and

approaches for conflict mitigation that are

useful to decision-makers.

The Fund for Peace adopts a holistic approach

to the issues stemming from weak and failing

states. We work at both the grassroots level

with civil society actors and at policy levels

with key decision makers. We have worked in

over 50 countries with a wide range of

partners in all sectors: governments,

international organizations, the military,

nongovernmental organizations, academics,

journalists, civil society networks, and the

private sector.

The Fund for Peace offers a wide range of

initiatives focused on our central objective:

to promote sustainable security and the

ability of a state to solve its own problems

peacefully without an external military or

administrative presence. Our programs fall

into three primary thematic areas:

• Conflict Early Warning and Assessment;

• Transnational Threats; and

• Sustainable Development, Sustainable

Security.

www.fundforpeace.org Follow us on Facebook

www.fundforpeace.org/facebook Follow us on Twitter

www.twitter.com/fundforpeace

55th Anniversary 1957-2012


www.fundforpeace.org

The Fund for Peace Conflict Early Warning and Assessment

FFP : CUNGR1212

Documents

Nigeria: Human Insecurity