Calculating the Cost of Capital. Kimi Ford is in need of your assistance to figure out what Nike's real value per share is if the Cost of Capital is calculated correctly.
ReadMeNike, Inc.: Cost of Capital ModelReadMe
InstructionsBuilt For:Kimi FordBuilt
By:Phone:Email:Purpose(s):Re-Calculate CAPM & WACCAnalyze
Working Capital and Free Cash FlowsCalculate NPV, Equity Value,
Equity Value per Share* Warning this model contains circular
references that will not work if the cells associated are
modifiedVersion Info:1aAdd ReadMe Page1bAdded Parameters
Page1cAdded Income Statement Page1dAdded Balance Sheet
Page1eAddedCash Flow Page1fAdded Sensitivity Analysis PageNotes:All
values are in $USD Millions except per share dataCell Color
Key:Input Assumption CellsGray, Lighter 80%, Grey borderCalculation
CellsGray, Lighter 60%, Grey border, White TextTotal Calculation
CellsRed, Darker 25%, Black border, White TextSection TitlesRed, No
Border, White Text
ParametersNike, Inc.: Cost of Capital ModelDiscounted Cash
Flow Parameters2002200320042005200620072008200920102011 Revenue
growth7.0%6.5%6.5%6.5%6.0%6.0%6.0%6.0%6.0%6.0%
COGS/Sales60.0%60.0%59.5%59.5%59.0%59.0%58.5%58.5%58.0%58.0%
S&A/Sales28.0%27.5%27.0%26.5%26.0%25.5%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0% Tax
rate38.0%38.0%38.0%38.0%38.0%38.0%38.0%38.0%38.0%38.0% Current
assets/Sales38.0%38.0%38.0%38.0%38.0%38.0%38.0%38.0%38.0%38.0%
Current
liabilities/Sales11.5%11.5%11.5%11.5%11.5%11.5%11.5%11.5%11.5%11.5%Cost
of Capital AssumptionsTerminal Value Growth Rate3.00%Current Share
Price42.09Current Shares Outstanding271.50Current Yields on U.S.
Treasuries3 Month3.59%6 Month3.59%1 Year3.59%5 Year4.88%10
Year5.39%20 Year5.74%Historical Equity Risk PremiumGeometric
Mean5.90%Arithmetic Mean7.50%Current Yeild on Publicly Traded Nike
DebtCoupon6.75%Semiannual Coupon3.375pmtAnnual Period20Semiannual
Period40nperCurrent Price$ 95.60pvNew Debt Yield7.17%Nike Historic
Betas19960.9819970.8419980.8419990.6320000.83YTD 6/30/010.69
Income StatementNike, Inc.: Cost of Capital ModelHistorical
StatementsForecasted StatementsIncome
Statement19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011
Revenues4,760.86,470.69,186.59,553.18,776.98,995.19,488.810,153.010,813.011,515.812,264.313,000.213,780.214,607.015,483.416,412.417,397.2
Cost of goods
sold2,865.33,906.75,503.06,065.55,493.55,403.85,784.96,091.86,487.86,851.97,297.37,670.18,130.38,545.19,057.89,519.210,090.4
Gross
profit1,895.62,563.93,683.53,487.63,283.43,591.33,703.94,061.24,325.24,663.94,967.15,330.15,649.96,061.96,425.66,893.27,306.8
Selling and
administrative1,209.81,588.62,303.72,623.82,426.62,606.42,689.72,842.82,973.63,109.33,250.03,380.03,514.03,651.83,870.94,103.14,349.3
Operating
income685.8975.31,379.8863.8856.8984.91,014.21,218.41,351.61,554.61,717.01,950.02,135.92,410.22,554.82,790.12,957.5
Interest expense24.239.552.360.044.145.058.7 Other expense,
net11.736.732.320.921.523.234.1 Restructuring charge, net - -
-129.945.1(2.5) - Income before income
taxes649.9899.11,295.2653.0746.1919.2921.4 Income
taxes250.2345.9499.4253.4294.7340.1331.7 Net
income399.7553.2795.8399.6451.4579.1589.7 Diluted earnings per
common share1.361.882.681.351.572.072.16 Average shares outstanding
(diluted)294.0293.6297.0296.0287.5279.8273.3 Growth (%)
Revenue35.942.04.0(8.1)2.55.5 Operating
income42.241.5(37.4)(0.8)15.03.0 Net
income38.443.9(49.8)13.028.31.8 Margins (%) Gross
margin39.640.136.537.439.939.0 Operating
margin15.115.09.09.810.910.7 Net margin8.58.74.25.16.46.2 Effective
tax rate (%)*38.538.638.839.537.036.0*The U.S. statutory tax rate
was 35%. The state tax varied yearly from 2.5% to 3.5%.
Balance SheetNike, Inc.: Cost of Capital ModelBalance
Sheet20002001AssetsCurrent Assets: Cash and equivalents254.3304.0
Accounts receivable1,569.41,621.4 Inventories1,446.01,424.1
Deferred income taxes111.5113.3 Prepaid expenses215.2162.5Total
current assets3,596.43,625.3Property, plant and equipment,
net1,583.41,618.8Identifiable intangible assets and goodwill,
net410.9397.3Deferred income taxes and other assets266.2178.2Total
assets5,856.95,819.6Liabilities and shareholders' equityCurrent
Liabilities: Current portion of long-term debt50.15.4 Notes
payable924.2855.3 Accounts payable543.8432.0 Accrued
liabilities621.9472.1 Income taxes payable-21.9Total current
liabilities2,140.01,786.7Long-term debt470.3435.9Deferred income
taxes and other liabilities110.3102.2Redeemable preferred
stock0.30.3Shareholders' equity: Common stock, par2.82.8 Capital in
excess of stated value369.0459.4 Unearned stock
compensation(11.7)(9.9) Accumulated other comprehensive
income(111.1)(152.1) Retained earnings2,887.03,194.3Total
shareholders' equity3,136.03,494.5Total liabilities and
shareholders' equity5,856.95,819.6
Cash FlowNike, Inc.: Cost of Capital ModelDiscounted Cash
Flow2002200320042005200620072008200920102011Operating
Income1,2181,3521,5551,7171,9502,1362,4102,5552,7902,958Taxes4635145916527418129169711,0601,124NOPAT7558389641,0651,2091,3241,4941,5841,7301,834Change
in NWC9(175)(186)(198)(195)(207)(219)(232)(246)(261)Free Cash
Flow7646637788661,0141,1181,2751,3521,4841,573Terminal Value- 0- 0-
0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 017,998Total Cash
Flows7646637788661,0141,1181,2751,3521,48419,571WACC &
CAPMCurrent CAPM10.50%CAPM9.81%TotalWeightCostCommon
Equity11,50389.87%9.81%Total Equity11,50389.87%9.81%Current
LT-Debt5.40.04%Notes Payable855.36.68%Long Term Debt435.93.41%After
TaxTotal Debt1,29710.13%4.44%Current WACC8.40%New WACC9.27%Net
Present Value2002200320042005200620072008200920102011Cash
Flow7646637788661,0141,1181,2751,3521,48419,571PV
Factor100.0%91.5%83.8%76.7%70.2%64.2%58.8%53.8%49.2%45.0%PV of Cash
Flow7646076516647117187497277308,815Cumulative
PV7641,3712,0222,6863,3984,1154,8645,5916,32115,136NPV15,136Equity
Value13,839Equity Value p/Share$ 50.97
Sensitivity AnalysisNike, Inc.: Cost of Capital
ModelAssumptions used for Sensitivity
AnalysisCAPM9.81%WACC9.27%Sensitivity Analysis for Equity Value Per
ShareCurrent Share Price$ 42.09CAPM EV/SWACCEV/SColor Code$ 50.97$
50.97Above Current Price5.0%$ 69.515.0%$ 69.22Below Current
Price5.5%$ 67.255.5%$ 66.726.0%$ 65.076.0%$ 64.326.5%$ 62.976.5%$
62.037.0%$ 60.967.0%$ 59.837.5%$ 59.027.5%$ 57.738.0%$ 57.168.0%$
55.718.5%$ 55.368.5%$ 53.789.0%$ 53.649.0%$ 51.939.5%$ 51.989.5%$
50.1610.0%$ 50.3810.0%$ 48.4610.5%$ 48.8410.5%$ 46.8211.0%$
47.3511.0%$ 45.2611.5%$ 45.9211.5%$ 43.7612.0%$ 44.5512.0%$
42.3212.5%$ 43.2212.5%$ 40.9313.0%$ 41.9413.0%$ 39.6013.5%$
40.7113.5%$ 38.3314.0%$ 39.5214.0%$ 37.1014.5%$ 38.3714.5%$
35.9215.0%$ 37.2715.0%$ 34.79