ftuiJ[n'niri lon1''an1l in 1n aJ{Numu,nt'ur,*,nrr|[

nlSqlao{Hnntsytuf l o.t6lR1?Il t t t f l1n"r6 tuoulnnaonltHanfl l . t ' '

S imu la t ing the lmpact o f Fu ture Changes o f C l imate

on Rice Production Systems

o:?n{u suFtvt.t{ ' Frx.t 6i tu.tfllt "

uvtnago

rvrrin:lrtlrflutvrrvrfl.:fifiorrrdouhrrnonrrrldauu n.:6.,11vr!r?fl1n1d fir ufu,il rrlr.l'rnor

fi1{'lunmnrnnmniruroro{nmr dsuular6Rrnrlmrnrn rir6'o116'5r.lnmrlirllx}}'fiamr.ruriutirlfrr{u

uridrsnrrr^r'r rflr.roion116i1in^Elr0!donm|ir Nuavnmlirfr'r'[fir{rfiianrflnmu]6urfievrfi ndu nrr4 : : . - r i , - - . t 1 " -nnlJlFrt luFn tuun'lt tul{uYlq lvlFrl lout|uut|avs.,tuqu tTu: tv:.] toflt i tt l l l lqlao11'11 uEHESnce T.ttu utt

yoe{orocirrn{r.:qtr.:ri'r'luunvrirrlrvur6 unvffiLc'roo{nfiarnr pl [,4 K3 annr:finurrrt,l.irrl?!rrurirs.]uqrnu:lroirnos MK3

'Luryu,ir.ril 2sa9 6g ror{ru{onou*riuunv4'.:r.lio rdfl{1 svrfirLduSouov 20 unv bo

nrrrirA'l r,rrnlrifinrlrldeuur]nri6nrrA'ernrr'Wn'6u urr:q'rnor{rr cEREs-rice avrrrunmrnr.rdntro

16"[urvd'!'lndr6fl{fi'!ira zu6ord..rfi rusn fi{ill{otouuiu{roruderd'u rno.runv nt z ldr.rnru6no{1urir.r116-486 !!ay 135-642 ilnni Fiolr nr:.La'rdr A'srrin r6erluri{mrufierdu rna{uav nl 716'eratrAoro!,]'lu

rix as2-tzgz ttar b12 T634 fitani:rriol: orua'rdr oeir.etrfiorrsr LBurrur.]rclufirfi]r{uo rqqvfi raoioanrn

u'tvtlul! |Lavn1t?vt]1n10.r |tn [[nv[l!n{ [v{ t]ilu

Abstract

Agricultura systems s one oi the senstive areas whch would be infuenced by the projected global

warming and associated c mate change. Despite uncertaint es about the precise magnitude of c mate change on

regional scales, and assessment of the possible impacts of changes in key cimatic elements on our agricultural

resources s important for formuatng response strategies In this study, rice crop yields in North and Northeast

Tha land under future climate scenarios from the l\,4 K3 model are exam ned. The N/K3 model pred cted that during

2006-2024 the annua rainfall amount of Khon Kaen and Chiang Ma shoud be increased around 20 and 50o/o as

compare to the annual rainfa I during 1975-2000. The CERES-Rice model predicted similar ranges of yield for both

locations. In Khon Kaen, NSPT and RD7 rice varieties gave a yield range of 1 16486 and 135-642 kg ha-1 , whereas

Chiang lvlai area yield a hrgher yield rcnge, .e.,432-1287 and 5121634 kg ha T, respectvely. However, one should

bare in mind the predicted amount of rarnfall and the re at onship of more ncidents of insect pests.

rondrlduolunrrdrruri.rrnrm;rrrn:gonruirrrfr ni.rfr 2 16or "::r.rrrnsorrrfionrl,i'onrlrirflrnrun;lTrultrurvr

r6lqrmnrr" r;u4rr{ufr zGzz firurnr zsas ru lxurrlau: o rior q.rouuriu

lrnitr 5fiirrr rn:olinriara n i unv4udi{r rn'o rfirLrn rF orr r r n'rr InBor n m: ln:Jsrrn'raqf }rvrirflrd'! !qirllmi

CSIRO Aimospherrc Research, PBI Aspenda e, Vctora 3195, Australa

?l3l

A r, u,n o r r,, u n nia nn viw a t n tn:fiwu'tzuun Gtytat nt t

Ft1U1

anrcyornralnnfinrrr:.ldeLuularfrslur"ur#uu^ru,,. rini n e r nra orffi n r r u ui u rc:.1ri'u.ir nrrr deuu a{ rfinqrnnr:rfirdulo.rff'rr rlounazenun'n1 lAuri ffrlorfuoulooonltoi {co,) ffrrfiryu (cl,)

ffrtluoriaoonl'lei ttrtO,) uo:ff'r"rnaolrr{lolaorfiau (cFCs) 6r ulunr enrydraor rrluti {Hougnton and yihui,

2oo1) lrrfl rovt'ry1.l!i'.rnrloiry tfrrlndruon61unm! inredn:srrunn:ylr!lornrrrldflu!! nrlufiruoir.r1(Watson et al., 2001) lrdynrraonnnrylrlrolnrar dflurr n{fro1ecyrfroduluournn (N/etz et at.. 2001)

fin1rdn:c'ruanrv LrornnrrvTanioufiisionr:rFprimotixndrranro[r'[ur:pirr-t1i.J'r.ilA (olszvk

et al, 1999) unvrvd'rtrfr (Lat et at., 1998) nrrdngrlo.r Matthews et at 0ggst lunrndurordalortlli 'ulr.tq'raoldo.tuttloirnotaqrJ'jrernru6n{roaorlrvnta'lmsfiuur}irannr:nlvirrlryr n:.t�rnnrrrnuay ryrnpl

6ut6svnrnviunn nrvrmroranrrdnsrlu.irrnru6 orfrrrfi uueT{unnniqrnryd'Lrlqsfuiosny q lurruyd4 . ' t r i . -

1l tv5'r nt[] tlul luu tll u1u luontl 1 5

n r rfi nrr ru a n eyrrr otn r rnldru rrlar antror n r na'urflooua^.,n nar,fi'uduoo.:nrrriirduro.ro 3 i d 'n'r.i jrS0Unttsrr[]n0t:LLtn15nfNfi ,dL0[[lny[10t't. lu0€l 3 rtutyl.: lr]rtr

surnrn'ua'l rflunr16 l.lfi6rl1un1rniloranrrriruuobiqruu4iornrarfrliuornr;oirrln1iurflu

+1"c ulo +2"c u3o ++"c niorfrtll un:rfirdu/aornrro.rr,B rrutlr uieflay t0 loanrrldulrloi'rno.lryl:l

nrrtr6nfiq ![Finylf,oor,lrfirini,r"'fl fiornrrdnrgr 6r rfluriuruudur.u uoii{o.irri'n,irarqcvlrildlrvaH

:yaru6yrBnnro.: Badiative forcng rrnynrrr duuuinlntflnl lolLrefllnrn Hju nrerfilduuSonprnsss.lriirrnrflrt nr fioutnroo nh oi

i , ,$ucnxi6on "16u:.tliraolnuu

r 6u-Lreflrnr6'lunraoirnordnrnornrn'[uouroor 6llAfinra'zuuruare

llt.ll.loirnuo (rar.od t) arrritLn,jr General Circulation N4odets (cCN,4s) drldilnreaon ullrrny

rizuurhXrirlrnrnrr'lua risuro..ra:.1'lu::rir.i rir :1 1o r{uL::flrn1olan nrariruoru4ruar Grr.:nrsnrri ''1t0.11tttfl1n16 ttnvrirurrulfirrrurjr u ir6or.rorfrorti uayr,lSlrrurjr urfluorrmrrx (grid based) [u11.]

^r'raoru,lririfidugrusrnud'ni flr ar a n fun rnSrr.r nr aRr?,t!ms. n'r fllan

uucnxfratu 14 aqao1nr66niflolnrn"[uo6nfifinrarfirliudr unyianrvrnrdren6rii'r.Janrryfirirevtflu"Luournnlfr rvnornmrirurrulo.t urus'rno.r a6nrriido.irrir,fi'irnrrr dauu:.1n{anr ornrn'[uournnrfio{llldnarfi4.rrirnn,jr16r

rrnyorqqyri n rr]urysyr,rn1u1,ri.r.lulrd,rfl rdou*nyorss:rfluflld

u0nqanu6n1yl0' ln1611rlnf l r l1 ln.r lof ln1rr11r.J1]ulr0.3In tul0{r i1{! t0unrysn|t6nr i1{q1fn1t

ti6euttln{to{anrro1n16fr rfr os']nn'rrilirdnxorfr nri {sotar insotation)z A - '

io tya.:rito'itondt:i riraunn.rrunnrrFn]Jr Inut$tf ntrviui.tttoyaol 6{tunnlyyrlto{nrr

ruldsuur.la.ranrrolnr dfifiriotvirlJilrrard orirqroraoreyrl!fircqdudnsoi rymfll fl fiq'ru4'nsauuriu

rrav{'rrr{orr6e{'l &l luri,:r zo flir.lllril rrlr,j'r.l (y1.F1 2s4i-2s68) A.A. 20a6-202s uayrduo uurdn'lunrr) - , ^ , , -

rir rlun rlfro nr rl ir de"lfir{rf,!anry.io't n1fi fi.i n 6i']e

i:',Jun1Jn fron 6nianttniwtt ,nltn:firuu nuur,rovrt r" r, t

nrarrfi 1 dnsruyro.rtt!loiraol4frornrnlnn (Generat Circulation l\y'odets: cCt\,4s)

uuuc:loo{nralr.rn !iauornralnndorlJ?s!rfia:.r

$tonlc

0't.:0.1

n1'r!n:toun[u!uou

n11!n:t0ao||uann

ncutdrdu CO, lrnmru

Erurn!0'rn1fl tYl111u fci- : : l

u fll1ruur rJu tYl tl1tu (%)

Geographica F u d Dynamics Goddard Inst i tule for Unlted Kingdom

Laboratory Space Siudies Meteorologcal Office

Watherald & lvlanabe ( ' lg88) Nansen et at. {1988) Wtson & Mitchei 11987)

4 M' x 1.5"

I

300

+ 4 0

8

7 83' x 10.0"

I

300

1 1

5.00" x 7.s"

t 1

323

+5.2

1 5

dlr : (Bachelet et al , 1995)

tn?o.ttJoflnl41

rvrrnrear6odrrurij

io4nnrrarfrnirr ua:{o4n rvtrnero.leTr r: lyrdlo r{ lufrrsourrriu (oi,r ururlrufiuarn or.irudo

o.fio.t q.touuriu) *av{rr,r{n rdsr'h,lri (n''r uvru irurXqu$fix n.uri$rJn o.fruvrr1u c.rdfl.l'lrri) ryu.jr.:fl zstz-

2b43 (dlfn{1uL6ra{nsnrtrnb,n?, 2518-44; URLr ){oqanrrr6ordrcrhyno!dqfldufirJqn frufirirrfiuc araaRn

{mrcr ua yar n rd orrodfl riold

do4n4iornrarnBnl wrH

'f{{o:ranfior nra rnunr:rfl4'uey t'r.ri zsza-zslz fifinrrrfirluullarvronorr.rlr ofi.rld oruy

rnunrnr6orf urrinflrdfllouitriu uayanrfli{s rnunmn ryrru 4ut1i,r''rrfiorfi:rrnr6oryr.rrnunr nruy

rnunrArdnf urivrarri'flrde.i'luri r]rynolpirsirdnnrarfinti qn-nl4fr4o6r,r'.d^ uayrl?rrrurlr r-i rvr'o

lavnornrtnirurruro.ruu..rt.roitao.:rvlrnrrrhniro {o:gafr1irfludo4o4fiornrnrrr{u{orfi:.r1upJuuto.rDSSAT3.5 (Tsuji et al., '1994)

uuuqhno.:drr

ttttl.iraol{rn CERES-R ce tA'irnr:r,iruu1 loflfini{fllurniarirs tBSNnT (Atocitia and R tchie. 1988;

J ntrawet, 1995; Tsuji et al., tgg+) 6'rlLranqlaott'zuurnrr {orrartfi Z) *nvnrernieyrallotaojireetrt.]

nrvlrurrrdrudirvto{{m lorfl uri.roontfludrurosrn a'rd'u'h mdn{munylulorlsu'lur 6n{m :rlJ

irvrn{ortoolrlufit uov'[u6u (Fitch e, tg98) ua;vrn{onorluTnerqu'lufirun;1u6u (Godwin and Singh, 1998)

rflurrrr^r'rao.lildfunrry orao.:atixnir{lcr{yY{'[urir.::.lrsry]attay'lu :;ryalvru (Jintrawet. 1995: o?rfl,i''fl

rrnv nau:, 2544)

lQlpl ruu ntatfiontt{nnttninatntuaz.'tintu'ttuun ti,t1trumnv

nmrfi z rirurrnresavnrariuorudourirrl roriroorrrurroiraorirr cEREs-Rice

lud a'tluu lg

NUlnlt

druro.rilrfiurroirno.rirucru

z wfioar'lufiu Sowing

I 50"/" ttorfiufittnlon Germinate

9 50% lo{fiuiloola6ifiufil6u Emergence ?1n

1 50To ao.rfiudu4or;a:nrflnirynr.:du End Juvenile fln, b

2 S[vaouofirrru'uroriu^on Panicle Initiation rrn,'b, fiu:

3 500/0 lord'ufr.:r;u:iu4nn1rdi1.:b End leaf growth r1n, 1!, fiu

4 soa/o 1o{fr'urrflvri!fiunrrdvdxdlrfnu.r6n Begin crain Fitting :rn, 1t.l, fiu, rr.r

5 507o aorfiurlav4nrrirr{fi3ry N4aturity ?1n,'l!, fiu, t'r'r u]6o

6 507o :toifiutfitltdur Haruesr

du. ' Ri,.hi" et ar., 1998.

uruirno14iornra MK3

rrr..rr.irns.:6nrcyornlA MK3 (cordon and O'Farrell, 'tggzi rfluurrqioo{nlun1yl'!o.llrttfllnlAlan

inrrtla:rdfloio{frufirdnvr'aonurn zoo filnrrorr rflurur"i'1ao{dn1,ryorn1F1'trio specrral atmospheric GCM

!ra:r6o!lu{fi'r url,irnornrpraran{ GFDL (Watherald and N,4anabe, 1988, lras unLz) t1lriroor vrg ld

vnnnrmornr:rndoui'nor rua rluurr.r cumulus LrllLr']oaLn6oufrfrnn{n4l nrrua'nnrl convection LLos, ,-ic:1ao{nrrrlonr 6 r.rlq rul4 fr 6r un: n r r dulnu$riiFuaon rflu o 'i'u

'ldrnr"r'rnor MK3 ri1uxru riri.:dor.:orfinti qruxQiq{4o-oi14o uavGrrrurirdu rol{rra{o

lourtriuuav{ir,rinriflilvri 2 rvuv rvsvrrrnrvv'irlil 2s28-2s4 rflunrr"i'rnolonlv{01n1fl (ctimate scenarios)

ln0nhulo'bin,nuri:rdu:rolff'rrnrfr.roulnoanhvi (co, r3rn'lr 1xc02 scenario) !fl! $o ppm tvu:ddo.:

rvu.jr.:i 2sagzb89 (2oos2o64) rfluntqhnor6arrolnlRloflrd narr.Jrdriuto.: co, rflu 660 ppm {ritln.jr

2xco2 scenario) u6y?irnm fuflurrdo:;ntdourr.irno.rdmntLrrnrjrl li'1dlorfll :$n: weaData (l:rnrr

ttn: omn,i'fl. 2545)

nltchno.lt! !n,rearhndr': (Rice simulation experimental design)

inra^irnordo.:ullr (scenario) lduri 1xco2 lLnr 2xco2 ( .li t)

Scenario 1xc02'[t'iot1ooln16ifin1?ioc3{ ufrH} un:do{nornraqrnurroirasrornrfl MK3 1ro.l

rou*riu (KK) [o:rdfl{'iuri {ctvl) oirao{?y!!nlra6ortrq u'riflcdu rno.: uavtrq nt. 7'[urtt'i1.li] .Fl.

zsze-zsnz yi{ !!!!ld;rduodr{rdrn lra:1#rrnlrvvnuodrrtfi rfi

t u u n v a t td o n'n 4n n 1 t n itft .t' t n t tr a : t{nt u't s ur r r, u U, * r r r rA

Scenario 2xCO2 lddorgaornroorn rruoirno.l,liornrR Vrg e:u4r.rivr Ft. 2'49-2569 rol{lu{o

lorlttriu {rr) uov{{lldnrde{lu (cl',4) 4i'roo.itytltllrr'rrru6ordmruflflcfrudroro,: un:irr16r nt. z rull{rir

uo d r': rd a c un:ldr.imn:l rgr r uo Ejr.i rd r fi vr io r fr.r n r r{o n r rr] tLlulore rnu

:rtl ba tcuuq"nnr:aRndrr {rnoitc ua; uo fl

n't9tuu1

Yiu6n1':

iotlao'rn'ri

israfi

tln n

MK3 I +J

J --r---]0 , i l 1 2 It - _ i - _ t ] � -

+ J J{ I---T---l

E E E E

rid t f.r nr a"ir aoi n,l er.rd n{r,:10.i s'.:yin rdeiluri {ruiolouuriruayy'rrlr: urn r:n,ir.:fl n.n. zsag-zsos

nltiInfl !f nrlr$nnri'r.:

J ,tfro:lrvtfiunmr unnrir.lrror aor6nfrlfrsrnnrrq'rnsrroru:..rrirno{irq cEBES,Rice lorrl{iortrnqfiornrnernnr:ioc3{ (wrx) unv stn urlrc'r no.:o r nr 11 (N,4K3) 6r'lfrnil nvsr (Root tvlean Square Error =

[(Simulated-Observed)'�/trl] ' ' uaveir NilD (N.4ean Deviation = I(Simulated-Observed) /Ni) ril Rl\iSE unordrnrr, ) u

tnl Ytltlrto nltntvc'1fl uclo.x F|lt'r ltrs'1fl tt]l]lailaoi (SimulateO) unyrirfrldqrnnrrn:rea'ne3{ioiryl]Lnrr 60t

(observed) eir RN,4sE uaornmn:ycrfl d'nlo{crni.rd ndrrfit6ern.qnflo4nornrnfifinrrioq3i (wTH) unrqo" ilr{orlaornrafrldern urroirno.:nfiarnra vrs rfio rfrsLfrtlio4nrna6nirrifinrrailarc nnvrrfl{t.Jlrrfl

airfn{ruurtauqficnirlnBnr1ro.l z 4'rufn'[ur;r.l,ir.:i zs2}-2s42 loAE) deuFir vo udnrfrrnrr:ldlrl.r:o

so.:ttrroirnovirnrarnrrnitfiuArrlle?{ (overest mate) r,r3o riofln,irAqrtsS l (underestimare) rdoyr'uLriL, ) u "

rirfr'ld'qrnnrrnms{nqT.:to.rrvrrnrradn (observed) ndrc6or.rrnldnir tr,4D rflua:iurl1u6{rrr.Lr.ror'raor{rr

fr lddo:traornrn.qoriul rirurrunon6or{relfrfiofl n,jrlnrrdnim one

arnnrrfinnr

nrtnrnndrrfl 2s't1 -2s4s

: , . , j j " - ; z ^ ,n-.rusiiln.n. 25r7 frrrfrn1r qndmro.r,i'.llryryrprrfiriufln: rar,ooo 1r luiln.a zsqa fidufrrr i'.1Ru so.s frrulr dufi:J4ni^oro rd rr.r{or,or.uriurfrr:duiny 12.000 1r 'lr.fln.e zsqo f,dr-d:ruti'rdu z.o d"u

a " , a i i . d i :1r uoi{rlliorifli'lurifrfrufrrlan{rcnonrilny 9,a00 ld'luil zs++ frfrufrerrrilRu 0 46 d1ult

4,"uu,o,nduntt{nntn{wamrua:frwu'tzuun ri tgt*t n'tt

narfindrrriolrro.nirlrvrun 4'rui'orouuriu uav{ruin rdsr'luri uaorluXrJ z d'rurifln.rt. zstzL t r , i . ,

r.ra r.r a nllalo.ryr.rlr ?v r.vr F1L :.rlu!av l.z nnAitX hflr,r.n. zs+a fisrner6nrodfl gra nn^r oraa6orim,ro.r

4'ruinqouuriunoarfla; o.s nnA:lil unv'lufln.rt. zsqa firror]dnrodu zss nn,{d 4'.:uior6fl.:'lu firunr.r60r

111rr'{NlullAv 2.8 ff l/ l t,16rtull l \.PI 2544 h9rArJ6firrOAfl 517 fn/lt

nrrh6ori,t,r'lu{rrinror.*rriudufidqu'h.rnirflunreorFn{rc rLroT dsrlro.lu'[4'6'urunrrrharoir deu

nrrr6or'lu{.:uiorria.:'[vrirflunrrrdnirefrfi rtn rvrruraS:rri'ruoifiuq4rJ4 n un:fi n rrli':]r rnfi rn3r nrr

tao tuontlqln'tlqj efrlou|lnl-J

r.Frrrualu*v,ir.:il t.et. 2s4g -2569

Lr!!"i1ao{4fi0rn14 N/K3 nrrrnlrniri3}]1rud11rrudr{flr.6.2549-2568 (scenario 2) flo{{{u{n

rdsr'lurirrn:d'ru{nrouuriuld4rn.jtlSrrrurjrdun'lAfu1udxr 2s2e 2s42 (scenario 1) Sosov bs uav t 9 6o

c1n 1,761 rrl. rflu t,t:2 1.rlr. [!nv r,314 ur. rflu t,tos rLr. nurird'lr 6lirfil,irnmahn{1110'1rild0 r3 J a X - N , . - t r ! - ) ,1\UrO1q! tv6!! r ' 'ut!1n 1tNu1!a n tn1.l l ! 6' t 1rt l t vl1. l1rt ' tL q tJ f l . l tvoLMtt.]01s ln1ttJn0tl t1c lol l lnut:f lY

rrnrnrrvirrri.:rflu:vtvflrr orqnvfiorrirnrru.l6turtrrri{rTnrnr{uriflqq u rflufir':finrrrrovruldrir

nlevFr{n41,)

, - < t q , { ,

r.Jnr.JaFrl'r,t (n t0n? Fro t? )6 0 0

: KK - 1 .8 d lunu

firr : a:r fn ': r u tR ru5nc n 1t !n Bn t http://wawv.oae.go.th

a d z a6nnrnlor{rc'hq'ru{nrdslluri ,i.ufnrsuuriuuavri'r r;rvrn:vu.ir strvt.a. zstl-zsqs

t-uun*attdanEodan ,tniwtt tnrua.-fiwu tnuunr'o,,,* ,, uQ

r1.6surfiau n 6nd.n $.a. zsze-zst2 lscenario l: 1xco2)

rur.rrq:raordrcrirurruruap.i6n{r,rfirrmllduisflav t + 1o{;{no.rn-ru{orloa1dioqa01n16lurr wrH

vra iuu,llliltilluvnrrdrrfiu 1nu:.rr.rnrr 6qr{rr (ormrrfi g) 6o}iqrn.jr araru6or OnE r3{ao.:d.:u,i'o anriu* i ,nralqnrir,:urrordrrirduun:'Lidoqao.rnrFi.{n MK3 6{1"#tuaetdn{rrfio n,jratasr6n one ru,irli'torya

ornlficrn urLoirno.l4fiornrrt vrs dr'Lfi{rcfinrrlrorr.jtr'Lulruyfiimoqilurvwdunonmnirs'lL 6.:ryu:13rdunrrniruurra:ru,jr1or6unv.rao.:40{do{{.ryioiLFr.r,r*n.rrruao1L6ou.nn'oid'nmnmryLr;rrflu

46 un:307 u. yr'rouuriu u.ay r03 ttay +te rrl. iq'{vfrr r6tLr'lyr] nrrrirfil- ! - i

nr?r aflL rfru!rrn!.Jdn,fm-1dcrntt!L.iraor{rr rfiolddarya4fiornrnri'raorqalotLl{rir Rvse uns

nir tvtD (mrrrr d)1\!,j1Fi1n1rnrrr1uri'.rro.rr.rnrr6or (RL4set fi uur}irhlluvn{16arfiuunylndr6arfiu snriua - " " " t ,nrrinrrr6orlnfl l{drduun:lddoqa4fi o1n1fl nor N,1K3 rfl o.rnrnnrmqfr ldnrirrir.rd'uudr

nrru:JisLtfiur[ao.r'irnrrmn'Hurr"irno{irq 'lunmn'rao{eronaynLdorqeyfirionrrr6orirnyxl

aorriuril6'lurio.: Scenaro 2-2xc02 rflo.rqrn rrcrlL rnde rn rnro.r ur.tloir no.:drr unv{o4a4fiornrafitdern

l\.4 K3

d - , !n1fl'ti 3 etnridn{rrts6fl tilnniroiolrt frldcrnrL!"I'raordrrluao.:{rra{o rfioldioqnornronrnnrroracqio {v\Tl-1) u:.rrdraor4fr ornrn {vK3) unv{o:;aruaar6n{rqqrnnrrrrfljruafi 6 (OAE)

c.tlrl tl n1l tvul l tu6?11 MK3

10uLtnl.J rirdu

xaItYvnl-r

ruflmdldrno': (tttspt)

n l . 7

352 142 267

420 160 267

NS PT

n l . 7

413 397 267

493 521 267

tlJa.1L1r:.J rirc.lu

la rvl,ll.l

rvflsrd'uirnor (nspt)

n l . 7

566 422 533

672 417 533

NSPT

n 1 . 7

645 637 533

763 826 533

. i -7 JL.t Lt rn ta 1 tn o n 1r9 o nl rnrn 1 n, ua zn Nu1I uu n l1 nu t u1

1,

nrarrfi r rir RN4sE uav tv4D (frlnnilrielr) rarruo 6 ordrnfrldq r n urlr.ir aor{rcnrnq oiarl no'ln 1rl rs qo

q{l'tn n15 tlrul t{u 6'lt1'1WTH MK3 MK3

MD

l0uunu rirdr.r

loirvvru

tvufl lnu!'tno.r {N5P Il

n 1 . 7

21 .1

39.1

32.6

28.1

5.6

6 .0

-8.4

-7 .2

N SPT

n l . 7

3 7 3

58.0

33.3

65.2

6.9

1 . 1

7 .5

7 .8

r.ifl.: lu'] rir ilu

'ln rvrru

ru,lflsrdu rnor (t'lspT)

n l 7

12.8

37.8

30.9 8.1 -6.9

32.3 8.3 -3.3

NS PT

n l . 7

30.9

6 1 . 3

29.9

11.6

9.2 9.8

9 . 5 1 0 T

rGa'u rfi au rn rh n itt n. a. zstg -2s68 (scena rio 2: 2xco2)

ulrroirnoldrc cERES-B ce ri,ucrulnrhnfirrfiocrrl{r:ioflnv t+ rsr,i1.rno.r,i'.ru{ofi uueT1iulillu

ur.:rdaofiulnurunrrfl6n{rq qnrrrfi b) lotLli'io4n4fiornr6s1n lrt.l!c"1ao.r N/K3) - - - ' . , - . Y - . t1,lt{ 111110uttflu n1tf..Jo0r1r11r rL0 -r Plfl1-Jl tJulld Y l{L.]ufJ re tvad anl1'111{no{luqq.11un1N0ntr

: l ) , - t r :!flYlll{tJ tttllUfll'lylUq nl 7 0 A t1n ltly\ NflUlO.: tJO U n nl11 [U0 0lt'ln{.lnql0 tltl n1tl1{tJ1l1.l1l0'l t] n tlO tlll'l')

- l Jll,lirxdu rno{ doidnr1n1rmr.ltulorraru6n{rroqjluri'r{r;u'ir{ 113117 uav sz-gg ilani!{rrtio

filoniraorrlrq rirfi'l{ e{uir nr:ru6 n{rrir a o sr{u{urr16rlr.r a I r;n ru'r,ir'hir a l6 or{r':vi:aorr{urirfi riu

139-r44 |tar10t109 ilanir:dmrioilnni:raorr]rr;r?a nrrrirfir.l rfiofinl''[dr]flfitanodr.:t6flr'[unr:r6niro

ru!!ord'fl;rr]uv{L,il nfi6nro{{re nl. I uavirorvicrdu rnotfidnrrnmrfrudurfierSoflnv 6.8 ttav 7.1

Fnr.r.i1d'L rfio rfitLrfirlnr:ldrJafiraolrio''ormn'rfi4n unvrfio16inrarjr"lal:vrrutdiunujrd'n:rnrrtfir

6u aardn{rerfl urfi a.:ioaav't o.o unv I z.q nun'rd'r

fi,{'.:u4'oriu.i'lvri.Ir.rnmrh nim urrordur.lr lu*nrlirloq riulfirnar6ordrc4'rdunrrdnrr]efi rfir.r" " Y : : l a -"[u{1ir4{6oi -ud llridnrlnir[trlrrllo.r runru6 nim ns z rfir'lud'or:rfr4rn'jr'd'orrnrrufiuiuroranar6st

ir,rruiflrduilrno.rlos royrry1ur:rrnrrir6or{rqfi1drlufitan1ud'nrror'r teo filaniru#rtorr]ufitantisldt- i - i

nrirc6oryrrnrrrdnfrorn'sritluodrrrdmnmldr]rfitanri'orrror'rrir'l*{rrfirnru6nrfiriurflu l09 iIa nil.t

imriofiIanir.no'rr]tLq ria rfiuri'rufir.r zr.s fiInnirfrrrriofilnnirLtorrlrq ria rfio1{r]afi'la orluo'onr ooo

n In n ?rJ Llu yi.i a fi n o It

riofin rrldilufira nodrr 16rrlurd ndlx u!Lo16'fl;r uflr'ir r a ru6onosirr trfitLcdu roro.t

$nvire n1. z firi'onrnr:lfirdu5orn; t ol.3 uar 104.9 rfiorfierrrYrnmldr]ufitan1ud'nroirfi4t ttottfiu' ldinmirtallrvrruL63lJvl!.i1dn?1n1lfirdurun

zu6or{rrrfluioflav toz.g tlav 104.0 nrrn'rA'r oprrnm

rl,i 1.r 1luuff { n e 10 n t'r vrt1\ t.]11.t tuci ue o 101.J l|n 1]tL uo u 1.:l.J I n

tzuu rnt ntda n t t,a n.t fl {n u'. nt['JrtBru, ttrun t or, *,, n rrt/

n r rat 6 otut t lldirt n r}vvnr: ro?r'luric'lfidrc'l r nr r]r r,t ! n-! n r ali'rlt rg r?a un:n m1d rltrfit o nd'n rr sooitnnfuoiotivrilri{r'rrtriurdu rno{fie.rni:6nlfilldu za.e ilnni:rdmoioilnnirrorrlrqrio un;rirtiim n:r zfiaraar6orrfiriu zz.s filoni dretiofilnnir.rlor:]aqrir lr.rvrrrorxriuirrnm1dr]aqr3a*n:nrrldr]afitnnd'orrreo filanitrtiolddrlfiircrvflaefru rns.:ir.rosrdnril{u es.z ilaniilireriofilnnilao.:{rq ria un:rir'lfidr.Jnr z iraru6qrrfi riu 1 26.6 nl^niufileoiofilaniraorr]utgrll

nmdn-oi.rdlduui'unnrir.rqrnrnnraflnurn'nrvruvdsrri'ulo{rrnruanrfu (Matrhews et at., 1997)) ,i rdru'hqlcvnrnnrani4rrar6ordrrro.: rvrralvrf iru, l l i rnnn,: r f iofrrr ir . : innrnrrrarnrnrrldsuu n{oeir.tltfiq3{ tnrrvnrefinur'luodnriryuo'hi6vr6rarornrrrdrqn:u4iornrn rioan H6orircrflurulrdunx 6lornqvlritfiavviounrrr 6fluu n{c{nrv{ornrnoer{dllt.triroor4fiornrn N/K3 nrontnf

nttitnortvttlntmhndl lorlf ii6nr:fid1uanrcnrrnifi4fiornrrrl a'flurlin{ntinuruo:nrrrfi Ernsr6ndmluri.:no.:rv!:litennrrl{;.:ao.r ur.nvnrlunrrldr]ufiruurryrurnt {rntegrated Nulnents Man-asement svstem: tttvs) ntirc6o nrrl{rirr]rfiraorcrnir{urniluri'orrirnuonnrarrmnrJiffitd un:rurrv6rrio ncudo{nr?rln:dnr !!oodo!fid'o{nrrdru'lunrnifirnunrnrarurrnr6n:lufilnnldro,:q:

f , "111 t1,nl?fl .1y{1! u Ln!n onnu')fl

otir.:bfinu ntrfir{ulo.rr;d'rqn-ru4fiornrnrirlinrrr:rrola.:lra urnld'nlirorfirdu un;d f ,

orqqvfrnlrr:uur.:rr niu uoiurr.irao.:irr cERES-Rice iurlnliutilhlldrir rorrJq4'e o''{ntirq rir!rlrvnarnranlurruraardntrr 6rfiorfi ntri'ruuroiotl

i l / -r4].t 7JlJl tLt)Vq? LflO n1r1nn17nfl\ 1n?UAZnNUlnUUn Ln.lv?tu1nal

4 - r in'r?'r.:vt 5 9rfl!.Jnql1'llsou rsio L (te&dcd-tq&bct frldq1nnlrn'luxruto.t t$.tlq'tnoltmfrA'.lyi'nlou|Lriu

uas{{rlfn 16fl {1yrilnu1fitoqa4fi ornrasrnrL!oirno{ t\,1K3

l ; !!nlt nn112

lnaors"sfrrlu loaldlrtrtn'rlacmru

o"nfl{sfits{o

(nlnnrrJ0ro[5]

o-qrrrlaor6a

(n tnnSll0lo tt)

o"nfl:las!6s

{n tanttJno tt)

aouuriu

ruiardu rno.r

1212

960

640

320

80

0

3 1 8

3 1 5

3 1 7

3 1 5

3 1 4

274

246

261

246

233

486

463

474

463

452

124

122-r

1 19r

t o t L

I 16=8.3

430

404

417

404

394

240

236

238

236

234

n 1 | . 7 960

640

320

80

144

142

1 3 9

1 3 5

642

u J I

6 1 7

602

282 376 363 573

284 375 351 561

218 313 332 547

276 312 313 530

rila.r'luilrviarauriroror 960

640

324

80

896

620

792

432

917

697

8 1 1

549

951

763

850

1238

833

1050

612

1257

893

1084

698

1287

956

1132

719

na. 7 960

640

324

80

T 049

961

784

512

1067

980

866

679

1600

1 4 1 9

1247

924

1634

1463

1028

1102 1580

1007 1377

9281098 1173

814 774

loclnolo.tul-t'uq1no{n 01n1fl MK3

ur.rroirnor4frornra vrg rfluurr"l'rno.:dfiou.^r,uor.r.r.rduirlnn'[uuuruouru'ro 200x200,- . . 3 - I f , . .

r rnr ' . rFt f l r roruf l l l t t : tuo luut l \ ' .J111 u0nqt fu t 1 : .Jn ' r^ l . r t lJ [ |Lu01",nul r11 ' r ' r tF ]nn^t ruor f 1n1t, j ,rulduu$ln.:rowrrfl r nrfl In n nryrcrnr:rn6oufr1o{ aQruiou'[u yrarprrrflr.ldrurirdryfr fio.rrirnra

finurrfirlfir'h.rdruirrraran{ rdoldnrrilrtrlclunmrJirrJq.:rnr"iraor uonqrndnr:'l{' scenario 2 d.:t r . 1

rrl.lnrrur ruronn?r !r:.r'ru1lo{nr{nrfLoutooanlqriotirgiufrluiln.rr.2549 flrorccylri6yviounrrr

rfluq3{ rfio{crn nmrdr{uriorflrtrlounavqn1ffirmarnrnrfir:duotirrriorfla{unycioe rfluFiofll

.,i -, : ,J,J Ln E n' LviA n 1 ?i nn nn ifl ?J n, L.o: fi nlu lnurn ru our^',, ua

doqhrinro.r uuuqhno{d12 cE R ES-R ice

rullrc:'rno{im cEREs-Rice rfluur.rr.ir no.: nr:rrun r:qir :r firinlufilun;6uMrfiq;finrrurdr'lqi - . j a

lLnyriiu!!!:rc1no{frflcir ir:!! nifl.r6 n rflu3 n {poinrbased) nrirr6o riiu!r n{,]dnfrx-{1r-iIn'1'rr.J

6rirrc{ro'[udrunrr{ornmr6or nnrrrr.r rnfi uavnrflnrrlo.r6u uonqrnd'[uoLr..,"frao.rti.rrronainro.r- . i " , "

rl0rollrlrvrnonunifln?vrnln rorsrovlr:1udnrrtnrrr6orfrfirl?rrrurirdurrniun'ir1u:Jqqfu irnrn'ir

qYNnlttY|'tBu1fi .:ntltyu!!qsll1-lunlfl lYtlne

nltuta n2

lur:d'rrnun:nr nr:rorifl nrtfiflrfiLnnlvrfifirl1r.lurlrnn'jrr;A'r:1n1:iu6.:5oun; 10-50 no:i

nmiiri6nrrr;rrsrir nrr:.lirrlxi6nrrldiia rnfiodrrnrur;au rfio'[ri1d:lr:fivr6nrvrrvir16rruirr:d'l^ " ) " e ) ' " - J " - , " , ^ -

tuntlAnl1lt ltO{n1ttl '1tl l- 1?vllr1il l l}JlJ^ n1Uol1}J rtl lLe 1nO.l{ tJ01n l rr MK3 UUolCn?:nU l1,||r iUlltUlrlO'lU

lrnunrrrndu fi n 1rrv!'r o rl d flu ur.ln rbj q r n rd rv ) . , z J 4'[ur:dlr4rvirfr

rnnnr"lur:d'rfrufr rr':rLFl3s n1r61t-lnmrf ou.lis n'orurrv!Lrfirev{{ri'fl uns

?v!!n1r:lo{fiu-ttfi'hdnlunlrniiolsnv16onrnanrnir uilrn nmrniu fnJurrv!r rnlo:irs drudlu- ! ) ) , ) , - 3 ; , 1 . j l - i , "

tvnlrlluvrvrnlr.Jltn$nf r!oflulroljn11,tn1t tutvo'ulrl]r4v{uvl |lnsr1jvrqu lfl1r'1fl [rulnlua ) " - i 4 1 , f , - .

nqr!nrfl nrrrro qr:{ rnBr A'r ir.Jo n r.J nrrrniror drl'lunnrrfri r r.lurrniuni r rdr'[uBn 1t. , ^ l - . . . J

n1r!frr.Jdul5uinn'ludu v5s nrr anfrr rafuriounltli'rur rfrorfi3!rn:rFutvo''r'trorornnrft.Lou'ludu

6r rfluor rir.l r: na r e{r 6'ru r r rln: rair.nornfiunid'[u6u

(?u

nrrHllurirao.rfrii.r rihdrurafi.rro.rl runrr Dssat 3.5 unvuruirno.:4fiornrn MK3 nrrrrn

rvrfiuruanr;rt.lrtornrrul6fluula.ranlvlRiolnlflfiolcc;rfin{uld r n nrrd nrr ua n.:'[riniu'ir nrrru6 n

drr'[uoorrvuircnldirrnnrvvunonrrr dtLuu a,r4iornrn 'lurvv,jrrir.a.

2s4g-2s g rvt.ttlnrrrhor

tmlo.:r4.:oor{ru{ofi uurli fic:ldi.rnr.rhsrtririofln,irlio{fir.irurr *avnr.irfi:jirrrurlralurrnn'irr:d'r.rfi

rnulAi! &.ifi!!u!"r'rnortrq!"{hiinn4'nkiuri nn{ono.rffrr riouna:qn niu ffrtfirvru ninlo.il:n llra{lu

nlcyolnlFlollan roynruurnrrroc{urfiroludn zo flfiru,rrir '[uurr"r'raor4fiorn1flri{do':nutulu

'lorr'.r.rr':ro':dufilfiarrrrn.irnaranrn4fi ornrnronr:dufi 1d

n'lug

Frt. oluur{ Aivrr.rrf ru oq!fl1 ||nv STABT (http://vwwv.start.or.th) fidxfl t:dru$ufiru{o4aritl

Dr. John t\4ccregor ru 4udi{errmmnrFllo.r cslRo l.r.d. diufinri rllrqtrf, rjnr rnia:r{oqanrrarfin{mh

do.:{.:r.r{ncrnronfirrua;16rrrqrorrirfn.rrurruginnrern:rnr un;uraimnrr nirrr tdranrrarrlrrn.jrr s'lunr:*

a':io4aornrnfr'ld'qrn urrirnoiornlFl t\,4K3 bioqjluXrJurua.r tcnse lnfllil rlrnr! weaDatal

H ) -lry ?tuutntn?tnon1|qan11l1rw 1n?raJwtuu1,tuL1lmlut ln1t

ronar:drr6.r

rrnrr nilru uny omo{e 6unynx ua.-a {fionrrldru}Jlrnrr{nnr:{oqa4fiorn'1fl weaData t�o

udt 'a'-'<- "[u

o:en,i'g 6uorzrr.rrrny fi3ufry1€i vt?1i]rqu6 (lrrrurGnrr) eturruofialqrni

lna{n1ri4unaaLlav!rru!al.r6ndofldrsu:.r!oirno{oo fierrrof 4ufio-rrfiarfir zunrufrnlrrr rnunl

nruyrnuoreArdnf r u'ri r fl r d'fl rd e {'lu ri o. rfior q. rdtLllr,lri.

citin.rT uraau5ien'mrnt*nt. Lr&o<-dd. afrfrnrernsnelor tvnlfiltlu. 4uddr:6lnrRlnrrrnunr rirfintru

rnt*gfinnrrrnunr n rylr rl.e rn s ore *n y d v n rni.

or:n6's 6rorvrrt irie oa{n fiouuor yrc.rlrvlnu r.iatlr 1r;qr rn3n rlurrd{urqr nurd'nd nnarl1rrti

rrnr rlStr vrrrr,rrniti be@.G. [!1-]Lir'lno{ry:.t]]nrr h mfiqfiL.irui{sa:llnrrdrl{rfl ron6rl

rduolunrrdr]r]u'rryrr tnunau l.rrfi fri.ifi 6) nq.it a"1 oa-ocJ 1r.fl. te&dm.

Alocil ja, E.C., and J T. R tchie. 1988. Upland rce simulation and its use in mu ticritera optimization. Univ. of Hawaii

and Mlch igan Sta te Un iv . IBSNAT.95 pp .

Baker, J.T., L.H. Allen, Jr., and K.J. Boote. 1990. Crowth and yield responses of rice to C02 concentration. J. Agric.

Sc i . 115: 313 320.

Buendia, 1.V., H-U. Neue, R. Wassmann, R S. Lant n, A.lvl Javellana. Y Xu, A.K. 1\,4akarim, T.l\,4. Corton, and N.

Charoensiip. '1997 Understand ng the Nature of N,4ethane Emission from Rice Ecosysterns as Basis of

NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN,4itigation Strategies. App ed Energy. 56.433-444.

Godwn, D.C., and U. Singh. 1998. Nitrogen balance and crop response to ntrogen ln upand and lowand cropping

systems, p. 55-78. In. G.Y. Tsuji, G. Hoogenboom, and P K. Thornton. (eds.) . Understand ng Options for

Agricultural Product on Kuwer Aca Pub., London, UK.

Gordon, H.8., and S.P. 0'Farre . 1997. Transient cl mate change in the CSIRO global coupled model with dynamical

sea ice. Mon. Wea. Rev. 125: 875-907.

Gordon, H.8., L.D. Rotstayn, J.L. lVIcGregor, M.B. Dix, E.A. Kowalczyk, S.P O'Fanell, L.J. Waterman, A.C. Hirst,

S.G. Wilson, lvl.A. Coll ier, lG. Watterson, and T L Ell iott.2002. The CSIRO lV1K3 Climate System lvlodel.

CSIR0 Atmospheric Research Tech. Paper No. 60. (ln Press).

Hansen, J., L Fung, A. Lacis, D. Rnd, S Lebedeff, R. Ruedy, and G. Russell. 1988. Global climate changes as

forecast by Goddard lnstitute for Space Studres three-dimensional model. J. Geophys Res. 93: 9341-

9364.

Houghton , J . , and D. Y ihu i , e t a l (eds . ) .2001. C mate Change 2001;The Scef t i f i c Bass . Cambndge, U K. , New

York: Cambridge Univers ty Press, UK, 881 pp.

Houghton, B.A. 2002. Magnitude, distrbuton and causes of terrestrial carbon srnks and some mp cations for

policy. Climate Policy. 1: 71 88.

Jrntrawet, A. A Decison Support System for Rapid Assessment of Lowland Rice-based Cropping Alternatives in

Thailand. Agric. SysL 47. 247-258.

t :u t nva t td a n nda n 1 rn iv u't n rua zi,Ju' tturn tU o'r*r rr rA

Lal, N.4., K. K. Singh, L. S. Rathore, G Srinivasan, and S. A. Saseendran. 1998. Vunerabiltyof rice and wheat yields

n NW India to future changes in cimate. Agrcultural and Forest lveteoro ogy. 89:10T T 14.

lv la t thews, B .8 . , M.J . Krop f f , T . Hor ie ,andD. Bacheet 1997. S lmu la t ing the mpact o f C l i rna te Change on R ice

Production n As a and Evaluat ng Opt ons for Adaptation. Agr cultural Systems 54; 399-425.

Mccarthy, J.J., et al (eds.) .200T. Climate change 2001:irnpacts, adaptation, and vulnerabil ity: contribution of

Working Group ll to the th rd assessment repolr of the ntergovernmental Pane. Cambndge; New York:

Published for the Intergovernmental Pane on C mate Change, Cambridge Unversty Press. 1032 pp.

L4etz, B , et al (eds.) . 2001. C mate Change 200T: lMitigat on. Cambridge; New York : Published for the Intergovern

mental Panel on Climate Change,Carnbr dge University Press. 752 pp.

Olszyk, D.N4., H. G. S Centeno, L. H. Zska, J. S Kern, and R. B. l/atthews. 1999. Globa cl]mate change, rice

productivity and methane em ssions Comparison of s mulated and experimental results Agriculturai and

Forest Meteofology. 97: 87-101

Ritchie, J.T. 1998. Soil water balance and plant water stress, p. 41-54. In. G.Y. Tsul, G. Hoogenboom, and P.K.

Thornton. (eds.) Understanding Options for Agrcultural Production. Kluwer Aca. Pub., London, UK.

Bitchie, J.T., U. Singh, D.C. Godwin, and W.T Bowen. 1998. Cerea growth, development and yied, p.79-98.

n. G.Y. Tsuji, G Hoogenboom, and PK Thornton. (eds.) Understand ng Options for Agricultural

Production. Kluwer Aca. Pub., London, UK.

Tsuli, G.Y., G Uehara, and S. Balas (eds.) .1994. DSSAT v3. Un versity of Hawaii, Honolulu, Hawali.

van Vuuren,D.P., and H.J.lvl. de Vries. 2002. N.4itigation scenarios in a world orented at sustainable development:

the role of technology, effic ency and timing. Climate Policy. 1:189-210

Watherald, R.T., and S. Ny'anabe. 1 988 C oud feedback processes in a general circulation model. J. Atmos. Sci. 45:

1397-1415.

Wilson, C.A., and J.F B. Mitchell. 1987. A doub ed C02 c mate sensit vity experlment with a GCl\i l includlng a simpie

ocean. J . Geophys . Res . 92 1331513343.

URLl: h ttp://wvwv. oae. g o th/

URL2: http://w"!wv.gfd.noaa.qov/reference.html