No Purple Unicorns in Austin May 2016

Richard [email protected]

(512) 585-8231

Looking for Purple Unicorns

in Austin: Examining the Skills Gap

Looking for Purple Unicorns in Austin

Economics:


1. What happens in the rest of the world matters (exports)!

2. Demographic shifts are changing the face of Texas; where we live, what we look like, where CLF growth will occur

3. Job opportunities differ by: region, industry, occupation, wage, education, and by skill set. The Triangle vs. Rural Texas

4. Texas economic recovery was driven by the oil & gas supply chain

5. Earnings, wealth & income are becoming stagnant & bifurcated.

6. Information technology is not an occupation, industry or major. It is a ubiquitous knowledge and skill set that permeates all jobs

7. Education Matters…But It’s all about Skills: Technical, Soft skills, (Workplace Essentials), Digital Information Processing Skills (DIPS)

8. Purple Unicorns – In search of the perfect employee right out of the box: Right Skills, Right Price, Right Experience, Right Location

Texas Labor Market Trends


1. Infrastructure demand increases – congestion, housing prices (G)2. Job growth rates exceed Population/CLF labor force growth (G)3. URates consistently below historical regional & state averages &

natural rate – low Urate implies general labor shortages (G)4. More job postings than new hires – business posts jobs that they

cannot fill (ceteris paribus) (G/O)5. Rising wage rates for specific occupations and skill sets (O)6. Disproportionate occupational demand vs. status quo (O)7. Critical occupations key to multiple/high growth industries (O)8. The Skills Economy – key skills demanding wage premium (O)9. Social Demand Model – society (e.g. business) tell us that there

are insufficient workers to meet expectations (G/O)

A Matter of Supply and Demand: You know there are possible labor shortages when…




County (Major City) Change

1. Harris (Houston) 429,841

2. Dallas (Dallas) 179,921

3. Bexar (San Antonio) 174,764

4. Tarrant (Ft. Worth) 165,970

5. Travis (Austin) 146,127

6. Ft Bend (Sugarland) 125,506

7. Collin (Plano) 125,498

8. Denton (Denton) 113,650

9. Williamson (Round Rock) 82,026

10. Montgomery (Woodlands) 78,223

11. Hidalgo (McAllen) 63,161

Texas Counties Population Absolute Growth 2010-15

County (Major City) Change

12. Hays (San Marcos) 36,464

13. El Paso (El Paso) 31,955

14. Brazoria (Pearland) 31,814

15. Galveston (Galveston) 29,687

16. Midland (Midland) 24,087

17. Ector (Odessa) 22,358

18. Bell (Killeen) 21,963

19. Comal (Seguin) 19,749

20. Nueces (Corpus Christi) 19,401

21. Brazos (College Station) 19,351

22. Lubbock (Lubbock) 19,197


Establishing the

Commute Shed for

Travis County

Workers


**63,398 (52%) of 122,287 net job growth in Travis County filled by outside workers

Travis County Cross-commuting Complicates Recruiting


MSA 2016 MSA 2016Amarillo 3.0 Texas 4.5Austin-Round Rock 3.1 Wichita Falls 4.5Lubbock 3.3 El Paso 4.8College Station-Bryan 3.4 Victoria 4.8San Antonio 3.7 Laredo 4.9Abilene 3.8 Houston-Sugar Land 4.9D/FW-Arlington CSA 3.8 United States 5.1Sherman-Denison 3.8 Longview 5.4Waco 3.9 Corpus Christi 5.6Midland 4.3 Odessa 6.1Tyler 4.3 Beaumont-Pt Arthur 6.4Texarkana 4.3 Brville-Harlingen 6.9Killeen-Temple 4.4 McAllen-Edinburg 7.6San Angelo 4.4 Source: TWC/LMCI TLMR April 2016

Low Unemployment: Texas MSA March 2016


Time Frame Austin Texas

CLF Labor force

Mar 2010-2016 19.0% (3.2% ann) 9.4% (1.6% ann)

Mar 2012-2016 11.9% (3.0% ann) 5.3% (1.3% ann)

Mar 2014-2016 4.7% (2.4% ann) 1.9% (1.0% ann)

Mar 2015-2016 3.7% (3.7% ann) 2.9% (2.0% ann)

CES Payroll Jobs

Mar 2010-2016 27.1% (4.5% ann) 16.2% (2.7% ann)

Mar 2012-2016 18.9% (4.7% ann) 10.8% (2.7% ann)

Mar 2014-2016 8.4% (4.2% ann) 4.5% (2.2% ann)

Mar 2015-2016 4.1% (4.1% ann) 1.5% (1.5% ann)

A Hot Market: Austin MSA & Texas Labor Force and Payroll Job Growth


NAICS Industry Mar 2016ABS CHG Feb-Mar

ABS CHG Mar-Mar

Y-O-Y PER CHG

Total Nonagricultural 983,300 4,900 38,700 4.1%

Goods-Producing 115,600 300 4,100 3.7%

Service-Providing 867,700 4,600 34,600 4.2%

WH & Retail Trade 153,500 200 8,400 5.8%

Leisure and Hospitality 119,700 1,500 7,500 6.7%

Educ. & Health Services 117,000 1,600 7,100 6.5%

Mining & Construction 58,900 500 4,800 8.9%

Prof. & Business Services 162,200 -200 4,700 3.0%

Government 175,800 800 2,100 1.2%

Financial Activities 54,700 600 1,800 3.4%

Other Services 41,600 300 1,800 4.5%

Information 27,100 -100 800 3.0%

Transport & Utilities 16,100 -100 400 2.5%

Manufacturing 56,700 -200 -700 -1.2%

Austin MSA Industry Growth March 2015-16 YOY (SA)

38,500 (2012-13)41,800 (2013-14) 37,700 (2014-15)

Industry 2015Q3 ABS CHG AWW 2015Professional & technical services 90,493 22,433 $1,671 Food services & drinking places 91,512 17,582 $371 Administrative/support services 58,840 7,391 $760 Ambulatory health care services 41,374 6,305 $1,180 Specialty trade contractors 30,901 4,989 $969 Construction of buildings 11,563 4,140 $1,255 Social assistance & child care 22,788 3,959 $568 Computer/electronics manuf. 29,558 3,857 $2,294 Civil engineering construction 13,474 2,499 $1,131 Food and beverage stores 19,896 2,429 $518 Hospitals 25,173 2,206 $1,118 Data processing & hosting services 4,333 2,120 $1,883 Credit intermediation activities 17,438 2,117 $1,440 Motor vehicle and parts dealers 12,771 2,071 $1,053

A Tale of 2 Economies: Austin Industry Growth 2012-15


Industry (+22,435) 2012Q3 2015Q3 ABS CHG Ann. $$$Computer systems design services 18,431 31,442 13,011 $104,676Mgmt. & technical consulting 11,289 15,632 4,343 $72,540Other prof. & technical services 4,128 5,280 1,152 $46,488Accounting and bookkeeping services 4,920 6,024 1,104 $58,604Legal services 7,553 8,469 916 $97,552Scientific research and development services 3,649 4,250 601 $86,944Advertising & PR services 3,104 3,622 518 $79,924Architectural/engineering services 14,170 14,603 433 $87,828Specialized design services 814 1,171 357 $59,384

A Detailed look at Austin MSA Professional & Technical Services


Occupation (scenario: 2012-2015 growth of +22,435) Jobs

PCT Female

PCT minority Education

Software Developers, Apps 1,483 22.7% 38.4% Bachelor's

Computer Systems Analysts 1,215 22.4% 24.6% Bachelor's

Computer User Support Specialist 1,122 29.6% 26.7% Some college

Software Developers, Systems 1,084 22.7% 38.4% Bachelor's

Office Clerks, General 1,007 82.8% 22.4% H.S. or GED

Computer Programmers 851 21.4% 23.1% Bachelor's

Sales Reps, All Other Services 758 33.3% 15.3% H.S. or GED

Accountants & Auditors 724 61.5% 21.6% Bachelor's

Network Systems Administrators 590 18.9% 17.7% Bachelor's

General & Operations Managers 553 27.2% 14.1% Bachelor's

Business Ops Specialists, NEC 547 56.8% 24.4% H.S. or GED

Customer Service Reps 521 66.0% 28.7% H.S. or GED

Management Analysts 457 37.4% 19.2% Bachelor's

Occupational Impact of Job Growth in Professional & Tech Services



Occupation Group Occupation 2016

Healthcare Practitioners Registered Nurses 14,372

Computer & Math Occupations Software Developers, Applications 9,239

Sales and Related Occupations Retail Salespersons 5,433

Sales and Related Occupations Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers 4,349

Computer & Math Occupations Web Developers 4,117

Office and Admin Support Customer Service Representatives 4,018

Computer & Math Occupations Network & Computer Sys Admins 3,403

Management Occupations Marketing Managers 3,391

Computer & Math Occupations Computer User Support Specialists 3,093

Computer & Math Occupations Computer Systems Analysts 3,007

Sales and Related Occupations Sales Representatives, Services, NEC 2,788

Office & Admin Support Occupations Supervisors, Office & Admin Support 2,625

Business & Financial Operations Management Analysts 2,463

Food Prep & Serving Related Supervisors, Food Prep Workers 2,400

Austin-Round Rock MSA Job Listings: April 2015-16


Occupational Grouping% of Online Job Postings

% of Texas Employment

Postings per Existing Job

Computer and mathematical 11.2% 3.0% 3.8

Healthcare practitioners & technicians 12.9% 5.2% 2.5

Management occupations 9.0% 4.2% 2.1

Arts, design, entertainment & media 1.9% 1.0% 1.9

Architecture and engineering 3.4% 2.1% 1.6

Business and financial operations 6.6% 4.7% 1.4

Community and social services 1.2% 0.9% 1.3

Installation, maintenance, and repair 4.9% 4.3% 1.2

Sales occupations 11.1% 10.8% 1.0

Healthcare support 2.6% 2.5% 1.0

Transportation & material moving 7.0% 7.0% 1.0

Building & grounds maintenance 2.0% 2.9% 0.7

Office and administrative support 11.4% 17.1% 0.7Legal 0.4% 0.7% 0.6

Texas Job Postings vs. Total Texas Employment


$2,144$2,465 $2,481

$2,745 $2,733 $2,819 $2,943

$2,774 (29.4%)

$4,112 $4,363$4,767

$5,141 $5,013 $5,037$5,215

$4,869 (18.4%)

$3,309$3,584 $3,448 $3,550

$3,758 $3,880 $3,797 $3,948$4,139 (25.1%)

$6,584

$7,150

$7,657$7,892 $7,789 $7,934

$8,162 (24%)

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New Hires: HS or GED New Hires; Bachelor's

All Workers: HS or GED All Workers: Bachelor's

Monthly Earnings for All Workers vs. New Hires Austin MSA


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Unemployment Rate Mar 2016

Austin MSA = 3.1%Texas = 4.5%U.S. = 5.1%

Available Labor Pool: CLF minus payroll jobsMar 2016 113,221


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Austin Unemployed vs. Projected Job Growth

19,666

Mar 2016: 34,215

38,700

29,429

Job Growth Scenarios:2.0% = 19,6663.0% = 29,4992015-16 = 38,7002014-15 = 37,700


“It is an employee’s market. We are definitely seeing a labor shortage in Austin and central Texas. I see it only getting worse.” John Cyrier, president, Sabre Commercial

“We have shortages across industries and at all skill levels.” Bill Hammond, Texas Association of Business

“Even if every graduate of Austin-area schools were employed locally, employers would still be facing a shortfall of at least 1,000 workers in core technical positions annually.” Austin Technology Council

“It is definitely a war for regional talent,”Sherri Manning, VP Q2 Holdings Inc.

"Most people we want are employed somewhere already. We don't get a lot of applications coming in." Gowalla CEO Josh Williams


So what role do skills play in worker preparation and why is a skills framework valuable?


Bachelor’s degree: What you study matters!

4 digit CIP major (100+ grads) $$$

Petroleum Engineering $89,098Chemical Engineering $74,181

Mechanical Engineering $63,534

Registered Nursing/Administration $62,276

Construction Engineering Techs $61,474 Industrial Production Techs $61,188

Rehab & Therapeutic Professions $22,154 International Relations and National Security Studies $21,606 Neurobiology & Neurosciences $21,590 Religious Education $21,339

Ecology, Evolution & Pop Biology $21,112

Health/Medical Prep Programs $19,577

4 digit CIP major (100+ grads) $$$

Petroleum Engineering $89,579

Chemical Engineering $67,830

Registered Nursing/Administration $58,387

Mechanical Engineering $57,918

Mechanical Engineering Tech $56,427

Construction Engineering Tech $53,593Radio, Television, and Digital Communication $23,423

Religion/Religious Studies $23,085 Dance $23,042

Dramatic/Theatre Arts/Stagecraft $20,798 Anthropology $20,661 Zoology/Animal Biology $20,247

Highest and lowest post exit program majors 2014 (+$69,521)

Highest and lowest post exit program majors 2009 (+$66,156)


Highest and Lowest Paying Occupationsby Education Level

(OES survey of employed workers)


Educational Level Highest Paying Lowest Paying

No formal educationTile & Marble

Setters$38,980 Dishwashers $18,780

HS diploma/GEDElevator Installers

& Repairers$78,620

Fast Food Prep Worker

$18,410

Some College, No DegreeSupervisor, Police

& Detectives$80,930

Recreation Workers

$22,620

Certificate/Award/LicensePower

Distributors & Dispatchers

$78,240Manicurists and

Pedicurists$19,620

Associate's degreeAir Traffic

Controllers$122,340

Dietetic Technicians

$25,780

Bachelor's degreeArchitectural &

Engineering Mgrs$130,620

Reporters & Correspondents

$36,000

Master's degreeNurse

Anesthetists$153,780

Rehabilitation Counselors

$34,380

PhD/Professional degreePhysicians and

Surgeons$187,200

Criminal Justice Professors

$57,200

There is a wide range of pay across occupations at each educational level


The Argument for Skills over Occupational Titles: Job Titles That Didn’t Exist Just 5 Years Ago

Job Title Job Title

1. Videogame Tester 11. Cyber Security Specialist

2. Market Researcher Data Miner 12. Product Blogger

3. Bioinformatics Specialist 13. Social Media Manager

4. Healthcare Applications Analyst 14. Cyborg Anthropologist

5. Big Data Integration Engineer 15. Usability Engineer

6. Chief Listening Officer 16. Chief Sustainability Officer

7. Cloud Computing Operations Manager 17. User Experience Designer

8. E-commerce specialist 18. Mobile App Developer

9. Search Engine Optimization Manager 19. Customer Onboard Specialist

10. Behavioral Analytics Specialist 20. Energy Manager


Pool of PotentialJob Candidates

The Hiring Cube: The Employer PerspectiveAligning Individual Capabilities with Employer Expectations


Laureate International Universities

NSSB Employability Knowledge and Skills

Mind Tools

Communication Listening & Speaking Collaboration

Teamwork Leading/Building Consensus Creative thinking

Autonomous Learning Using social skills Personal accountability

Apply knowledge to practice

Gathering/analyzing information Interpersonalnegotiation

Leadership Analyzing and solving problems Conflict resolution

Entrepreneurial spirit Making decisions & judgments Adaptability/Flexibility

Global mindset Organizing and planning Being inclusionary

Capacity to adjust to new situations

Using IT & communications technology

Clarity of communications

Adaptability Coaching/mentoring

Working in teams

A Mixed Bag of Soft Skills All Workers Must Have to Succeed


Common Sense Soft Skills from employer interviews:

*Be personable*Don’t be a “drama queen”*Don’t be a “game player”*Contribute to a positive environment*Ability to develop rapport with clients

and colleagues*Have and use common sense*Be a Socratic thinker*Be clean, take care of hygiene

Education with a Purpose

D. Canadian Digital Information Processing Skills (DIPS)

1. Communicate information Share DI with others

2. Create information Generate new digital content by adapting DI

3. Apply information Use DI in various formats to perform tasks

4. Assess information Judge the quality, relevance & validity of DI

5. Integrate information Analyze, combine and summarize DI

6. Organize information Decode, restructure and protect DI

7. Access information Locate, select and retrieve DI

8. Determine information needs Recognize, define and articulate DI needs

9. Input information Identify, record and store DI to facilitate use

C. Digital Technical Skills/Software – Hardware Use

B. Transversal Skills /Problem Solving Skills

A. Foundational Skills/Gateway Basic Literacy and Numeracy Skills

Technology Skills Touch All Occupations and Jobs

Education with a Purpose

Sample DIPS Learning Objectives1. Behave and act ethically in handling information

2. Work on multiple digital tasks simultaneously

3. Navigate through complex information-architecture4. Combine information from different sources5. Classify information for ease of storage, retrieval and use6. Evaluate the quality and trustworthiness of information7. Comply with employer‘s digital policy8. Secure personal information against identity threats9. Backup and store digital contents10. Use project management software11. Use digital systems and tools for collaborating12. Connect digital systems and tools to the Internet13. Generate new knowledge using digital information14. Apply information for designing & authoring digital contents

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Essentials

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IV. Strong

Workplace

Essentials, Needs

Skill Upgrade

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Detailed Work Activity Skill Match Score

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Picking the Right Applicant: Evaluation Matrix

#1

#2

#3#4


Career Skill (MONEY+ Payscale) PCT$$

1. SAS stat package 6.1%

2. Data mining/warehousing 5.1%

3. Search engine marketing 5.0%

4. Data modeling 5.0%

5. Contract negotiation 5.0%

6. Software development 4.9%

7. Strategic project mgmt. 4.4%

8. Strategic planning 4.3%

9. Technical product sales 4.3%

10. Customer service metrics 4.3%

11. Financial analysis 4.0%

21 Most Valuable Career Skills Earning Pay Premium

Career Skill PCT $$

12. Risk control/mgmt. 3.9%

13. SAP material mgmt. 3.9%

14. Business analysis 3.8%

15. IT security/infrastructure 3.7%

16. LEAN manufacturing 3.6%

17. Business Forecasting 3.5%

18. Health/clinical education 3.4%

19. CAD/CAM 3.4%

20. Systems troubleshooting 3.3%

21. New business development 3.0%

(source: MONEY + PayScale)


1. Demonstrates ability to articulate all of the above,

including examples of concrete skills and abilities.

2. Anticipation of future skill needs. The person seems to

have other skills that might someday be useful to the

company.

3. Experience in the industry; have you done this before,

especially in related job titles and work activities.

4. Demeanor indicates good Workplace Essentials;

especially the ability to get along with others,

demonstrated by experience or general attitude.

5. More education is better. Degrees indicate broader

knowledge of the field of study … commitment to learning

Confessions of a hiring authority:What we’re really thinking!


The search for purple unicorns will continue, but this version is over

Thank You!

Testimonials?

Documents

No Purple Unicorns in Austin May 2016