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2015 No vacancy
www.dransfield.com.au
Market forces Dean Dransfield Director & Owner
+61 2 8234 6644
P P www.dransfield.com.au 1
DARWIN
FY14 -4.9%
FY15 -4.9%
CAIRNS
FY14 0.9%
FY15 8.7%
BRISBANE
FY14 -8.4%
FY15 0.3%
GOLD COAST
FY14 -0.4%
FY15 8.2%
SYDNEY
FY14 5.9%
FY15 5.6%
CANBERRA
FY14 -2.7%
FY15 0.0%
MELBOURNE
FY14 5.6%
FY15 7.3% HOBART
FY14 2.9%
FY15 5.1%
ADELAIDE
FY14 0.9%
FY15 -3.1%
PERTH
FY14 -11.4%
FY15 -0.5%
AUSTRALIA RevPAR
FY2015 4.0% Forecast
FY2014 0.7% Actual
RevPAR Growth 2014-15
P
Major City Performance FY2014
www.dransfield.com.au 2
Location Occ Occ
Growth
Rate
Growth RevPAR
RevPAR
Growth
Adelaide 77.9% 3.0 -2.9% $106.97 0.9%
Brisbane 75.2% -3.0 -4.7% $124.18 -8.4%
Cairns 65.2% 0.7 -0.2% $80.35 0.9%
Canberra 66.7% -2.3 0.7% $109.65 -2.7%
Darwin 76.3% -2.5 -1.7% $121.43 -4.9%
Gold Coast 64.5% -3.6 5.2% $94.31 -0.4%
Hobart 70.6% -3.3 7.8% $106.62 2.9%
Melbourne 82.8% 2.4 2.6% $149.48 5.6%
Perth 81.0% -2.4 -8.8% $145.65 -11.4%
Sydney 86.6% 1.9 3.7% $175.13 5.9%
Total Market 76.6% -0.3 1.1% $130.81 0.7%
P
YTD Performance
www.dransfield.com.au 3
STR SLIDES
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YTD Performance
www.dransfield.com.au 4
STR SLIDES
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Major City Forecast
www.dransfield.com.au 5
Forecast Average RevPAR Growth
Location Short
FY2015
Medium
FY15-17
Long
FY15-23
Adelaide -3.1% 2.1% 3.3%
Brisbane 0.3% 2.1% 4.8%
Cairns 8.7% 7.3% 4.6%
Canberra - 1.0% 3.6%
Darwin -4.9% 0.4% 2.3%
Gold Coast 8.2% 6.7% 4.4%
Hobart 5.1% 1.4% 2.4%
Melbourne 6.2% 5.9% 4.5%
Perth -0.5% 0.9% 3.6%
Sydney 5.6% 6.0% 4.6%
Total Market 4.0% 4.6% 4.4%
P
Demand Outlook Upgraded
www.dransfield.com.au 6
TFC FORECAST MOVEMENT – Long Term to FY2022
P
Demand Outlook upgraded
www.dransfield.com.au 7
DRANSFIELD NATIONAL DEMAND FORECAST – LONG TERM
• Short term
expectations are for
2.7% growth in
FY2015
• Medium term
expectations to
FY2017 are for 3.3%
growth p.a
• Long term demand
forecast is a slight
upgrade and is
expected to average
3.5% growth p.a to
FY2023
P
Supply Outlook
www.dransfield.com.au 8
MAJOR CITY SUPPLY GROWTH PERFORMANCE AND FORECASTS TO FY2023 – ROOMS
Following 3 years of limited supply growth we expect to see an increase in new supply across the country, with
the peak of the supply cycle expected through 2018/2019, 12 months later the prior expectations.
P
development TRENDS
www.dransfield.com.au 9
• In the past 12 months there has been significant proposal activity
• Market Response book is being filled
• New projects are coming on 12-24 months later than anticipated
in our market response
• Key trends in this development cycle:-
– Upper end of the market (luxury/5 star)
– Mixed use developments and often as part of a large precinct
– Operator sponsored vs developer sponsored
– Stronger level of government sponsorship
– Increased volume of conversions or repositioning of older
assets
– Focussed on traditional hotel stock where as the previous cycle
was focussed on Serviced Apartments
Total Pipeline - 22,676
Total Pipeline - 24,271
P
Supply Outlook
www.dransfield.com.au 10
MAJOR CITY FORECAST SUPPLY GROWTH BY TYPE – FY2015-2022
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Brisbane Gold Coast Melbourne Perth Sydney
2014 Actual Construction Proposals Market Response
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
Adelaide Cairns Canberra Darwin Hobart
2014 Construction Proposals Market Response
5 LARGEST HF CITIES BY ROOM COUNT 5 SMALLEST HF CITIES BY ROOM COUNT
P
Investment Geography
www.dransfield.com.au 11
Property Purchaser Geography Reported Price
Sheraton on the Park Sunshine Insurance Group Corporation China $463.0
Hilton, Sydney Bright Ruby China $451.6
Sofitel Darling Harbour Shwartz Family Co Australia $368.0
Sofitel Wentworth, Sydney Frasers Ceterpoint Singapore $202.7
NEXT Hotel, Brisbane Challenger Australia $144.0
Bell City, Victoria Elanor Investors Limited Australia $142.9
Park Hyatt, Melbourne Fu Wah International Group China $135.0
Novotel Brighton, Sydney Oscars Hotel Group Australia $105.0
Sofitel Gold Coast Huayu Group China through Blue Ocean Gold
Coast China $83.0
Vibe Hotel, North Sydney CBUS property $80.0
Rydges Darwin Airport Hotel & Resort Real Estate Capital Asia Partners IV (SC Capital) Singapore $80.0
Jupiter's Townsville Hotel & Casino Colonial Leisure Group Australia $70.0
Oaks on Lonsdale Ovolo Group Ltd Hong Kong $65.0
P P
Dransfield services
www.dransfield.com.au 12
55,000 rooms, 500 projects over 20 years
experience in Australia and the surrounds.
• Transaction Management
• Development
• Advisory
• Investment
• Strategic Consulting
• Operator Selection
• Due Diligence
• Feasibility
• Strata Title
• Experts Reports
• Asset Management
• Financial Services Licensed
DEAN DRANSFIELD
Director & Owner
T +61 2 8234 6644
DRANSFIELD is a specialist professional services organisation advising the tourism, finance and property industries.
Experience includes acting as principals and advisors for a wide range of hotel and resort assets
> City hotels and regional assets
> Single and multi-site operations
> Backpacker to 5 Star
Publish Hotel Futures – Long term Australian Hotel Forecasts