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NOAA Arctic Priorities and Potential Contributions to PPP/YOPP

Randall DoleNOAA Earth System Research Laboratory 

Physical Sciences Division

NOAA’s Arctic Goals 

Forecast Sea Ice

Strengthen Foundational Science to Understand& Detect Arctic Climate and Ecosystem Changes

Improve Weather & Water Forecasts & Warnings

Enhance International & National Partnerships

Improve Stewardship and Management of Oceanand Coastal Resources in the Arctic

Advance Resilient and Healthy ArcticCommunities and Economies

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NOAA Arctic Prediction Workshop(2014) 

Major Workshop Recommendation:  

NOAA should participate vigorously in the WMO/PPP Year of Polar Prediction Project (PPP), particularly in efforts related to the Year Of Polar Prediction (YOPP).

Expectation:  YOPP would enablesignificant advances in Arctic Predictions and Services

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Improve Observations X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X XField Programs X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X XProcess Representation X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X XAssimilation X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X XPredictability Sea Ice X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X XPolar‐Midlatitude Linkages X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X XWx Prediction Verification X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X XUnderstand Benefits X X X X X X X X X X XTraining X X X X X X X X X

EXAMPLES of NOAA ASSETS for the YEAR OF POLAR PREDICTION (YOPP)

OCEAN OBSERVATIONS SEA ICE MODELING/PREDICTIONSEA ICE

OBSERVATIONSCOORDINATION

YOPP Activity andObjective

Preliminary Analysis – NOAA Assets for YOPP

Type

Types of Activities

• Coordinating Activities (e.g. IASOA) – 6• Atmospheric Observing Activities (e.g. GOES‐R Risk Reduction) ‐ 9• Technology Development Activities (e.g. UAS ‐ Dropsondes) – 4• Ocean Observing Activities (e.g. Wind Ocean Data Base) – 7• Sea‐Ice Observing Activities (e.g. Sea‐Ice Loss Program) – 5• Land Observing Activities (e.g. EMC Land Prediction) – 1• Sea Ice Modeling/Prediction Activities (e.g. CVP Ice Assimilation and 

Prediction CFSv2) – 13• Model Output Activities (e.g. Coupled Ice‐Ocean modeling FVCOM) – 3• Foundational Research Activities (e.g. Arctic Dipole Anomaly Research) – 8• Operational Activities (e.g. Evaluate User Requirements for Providing 

Decision Support ‐ 2

5Potential for diverse NOAA contributions to YOPP

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• Potential contributionsfrom all NOAA research and service lines

Across NOAA Potential Contributions

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For more information on NOAA’s Arctic planning, see:

http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/NOAAarcticactionplan2014.pdf

NOAA believes it has much it can offer to YOPP ‐We look forward to working with you.

Goal 1: Forecast Sea Ice

Goal Statement – Accurate, quantitative, daily forecasts to decadal predictions of sea ice are provided to support safe operations and ecosystem stewardship.

Five-year Strategy•  Improve daily to weekly sea ice

models and forecasts and newseasonal prediction services

•  Multi-decadal sea ice projections•  Retrospective and prospective

studies of the linkages between changes in Arctic sea ice and hemispheric weather and climate

NOAA’s Arctic Vision and Strategy 6   8

Goal 3: Improve Weather and  Water Forecasts and Warnings

NOAA’s Arctic Vision and Strateg

y 

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Goal Statement - Advanced, accurate forecasts and warnings are provided to ensure society can prepare for and respond appropriately to weather-related routine and extreme events.

Five-year Strategy•  Improve Arctic marine weather,

sea ice and storm forecast services.

•  Protect northern and western Alaska coastal communities from storm surge, inundation, and erosion hazards.

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Goal 4: Enhance International  andNational Partnerships 

NOAA’s Arctic Vision and Strategy 9  

Goal Statement - National and international partners are engaged to promote cooperation and sharing of data, observational platforms, and intellectual resources to enable more rapid and comprehensive attainment of NOAA's Arctic goals.

Five-year Strategy•  Encourage data sharing at multiple

levels among providers and users•  Expand Arctic protection mechanisms•  Provide leadership and resources to

support Arctic governance and science organizations

•  Support development of effective SAON process

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Linking Physical‐Biological Sciences and Services• Distributed Biological Observatory (DBO) sites (red boxes) are regional “hotspots” located along a latitudinal gradient

• DBO sites exhibit high productivity, biodiversity, and overall rates of change

• DBO sites serve as a change detection array for the identification and consistent monitoring of biophysical responses

• Sites sampled by national and international entities with shared data plan[modified by Karen Frey from Grebmeier et al. 2010, EOS 91]