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NOAA CSI Meeting January 29 2009

° The Midwest Floods of Spring 2008 ___ Soil moisture sensitivity ---- Contribution to State of Climate Report

° “Chilly” Surface Temperatures --- Decadal cooling of Global sfcT: 1999-’08 --- US 2008 sfcT: likely lowest since 1996 ---Contribution to State of Climate Report

° October-December 2008 ___ La Nina & Npac SST effect

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Is the Climate Warming or Cooling?

David R. EasterlingNOAA/National Climatic Data Center

Michael F. WehnerLawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

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Contrarians

• “The latest warming trend, which appears to have ended in 1998, is the result of the end of the Little Ice Age” Investor’s Business Daily, Nov., 2008

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Global Annual Surface Air Temperature,

MPI-ECHAM CGCMA2 Forcing

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Probability of 10 year Trend

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2008 US SFCT Annual Anomalies

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US SFCT Annual Anomalies:Observed

C

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US SFCT Annual Anomalies:AMIP Simulated

C

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2008 US SFCT Annual Anomalies

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2008 US SFCT Annual Anomalies:150 AMIP Runs

C

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Observed October- December 2008 Anomalies

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Observed October - December 2008 200Z Anomalies

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Observed October- December 2008 Anomalies

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Simulated October- December 2008 Anomalies GOGA, 150-member multi-model

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Simulated October- December 2008 Anomalies Tropical SSTs, 150-member multi-model

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Simulated October- December 2008 Anomalies XTropical SSTs, 150-member multi-model

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Simulated OND 2008150-member multi-model

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Observed October - December 2008 200Z Anomalies

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Simulated Response to October 2008 NPAC SSTs GFS Coupled Mixed Layer Runs

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Observed Conditions Since 1 January 2009

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Estimated Snow Depth 22 December 2008

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Estimated Snow Depth 27 January 2009

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What are the Official Forecasts for US winter climate?

0.5 month Lead DJF 0.5 month Lead JFM

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What are the Official Forecast for US winter climate?

0.5 month Lead DJF 0.5 month Lead JFM