NOAA National Weather Service Missouri River Forecaster’s Meeting Kansas City, Missouri November 2010 Ross Wolford Senior Operations Hydrologist Missouri

NOAA National Weather ServiceNOAA National Weather Service

Missouri River Forecaster’s Meeting

Kansas City, Missouri

November 2010

Ross WolfordSenior Operations Hydrologist

Missouri Basin River Forecast Centerhttp://www.crh.noaa.gov/mbrfc

[email protected]

National Weather Service

Water PredictionsforLife Decisions

Today’s PresentationToday’s Presentation

• General description of our forecast process

• Our responsibilities (deterministically)• How our model works• How we can change what the model does• How forecasts can differ from our model and other peoples estimates• Some forecasting challenges in 2010



MBRFC Area of ResponsibilityMBRFC Area of Responsibility25 Major River Basins1.Upper Missouri River2.Big Horn River3.Yellowstone River4.Milk River5.Upper Dakota Tributaries6. Middle Dakota Tributaries7. Lower Dakota Tributaries8. North Platte River9. South Platte River10. James/Vermillion Rivers11.Big/Little Sioux Rivers 12.Loup River13.Elkhorn/Platte River14.Upper Missouri Tributaries15.Upper Republican River 16.Upper Smoky Hill River 17.Lower Republican River 18.Lower Smoky Hill River 19.Big Blue River20.Kansas River21.Marais Des Cygnes River22.Osage River 23.Lower Missouri Tributaries24.Grand/Chariton Rivers25.Missouri Mainstem

1

3

4

6

7

9

8

2

14

24

1211

10

23

13

17 1916

22

20

5

15

21

18



Major Basins are divided into Major Basins are divided into about 1000 sub-basinsabout 1000 sub-basins


Missouri Basin River Forecast CenterMissouri Basin River Forecast CenterObserved Period Estimated Precipitation


Missouri Basin River Forecast CenterMissouri Basin River Forecast CenterForecast Precipitation



Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model



Hydrologic Model

Runoff from each basin routed downstream:

Runoff applied to unitgraphs Flow routed from basin to basin Flow adjusted at each gage site based on

current stage and rating Forecasted flow converted to stage based on

current rating



Deterministic ForecastsDeterministic Forecasts



What can forecasters change to What can forecasters change to affect model output?affect model output?

• Snowmelt rate, was precip rain or snow?, runoff, snowpack water equivalent, SCA, rainfall, soil water content of any “bucket”, use radar-mix or “gage only”, past or forecast precip, unit hydrograph shape and duration, most time series (e.g. routed water, forecast streamflow).

• Future changes to time series, runoff, and rain+melt mods do not function on “raw model” runs. *



WHEN THINGS GO WRONGWHEN THINGS GO WRONG



Rulo, Nebraska, June 13, 2010Rulo, Nebraska, June 13, 2010









24-hour QPF June 13, 201024-hour QPF June 13, 2010



24-hr Rainfall June 14, 201024-hr Rainfall June 14, 2010



Platte R., Louisville, NE +30 to 50KPlatte R., Louisville, NE +30 to 50K



Little Nemaha, Auburn, NE +20KLittle Nemaha, Auburn, NE +20K



Tarkio River, Fairfax, Mo +20KTarkio River, Fairfax, Mo +20K



Big Nemaha R., Falls City, NE Big Nemaha R., Falls City, NE +23K+23K



Kansas River, Desoto, KS +40KKansas River, Desoto, KS +40K



Missouri R, Herman, Mo +60K Missouri R, Herman, Mo +60K



Ross Wolford

[email protected]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mbrfc/



Rulo RatingsRulo Ratings



NWSRFS - St. Joseph, Mo 6-16-2010 NWSRFS - St. Joseph, Mo 6-16-2010


QPF ENSEMBLE FORECASTSQPF ENSEMBLE FORECASTSRaw Model Output


QPF ENSEMBLE FORECASTSQPF ENSEMBLE FORECASTSThe QPF Input

HPC 95% Confidence Interval QPF

8July 12, 2007 River Forecast Ensembles

Minimum QPF with 95% Confidence

Maximum QPF with 95% Confidence

HPC QPFMaximum Absolute

Error with 95% Confidence

-=

=

HPC QPFMaximum Absolute

Error with 95% Confidence

+



Chronology of Forecasting EventsChronology of Forecasting Events

• 6:30-8:30 Review and manually adjust hourly Multisensor Precip Estimates ending at 12z. Automatic estimates every hour at about :20. Transfer to ldm for Corps every hour at :32.

• 6:30-7:00 Review and adjust QPF. Copy to ldm for Corps whenever QPF is run.

• 6:45 Automatic run of all rivers. Missouri River flows provided to NCRFC

• 7:00-9:30 Missouri River and tributaries models updated adjusting model states and inputs as needed. Missouri River flows updated and provided to NCRFC whenever model rerun. Call Corps as necessary to get gate changes.



Chronology of Forecasting EventsChronology of Forecasting EventsContinuedContinued

• 8:20 Retrieve Corps RCC reservoir report

• 8:30-9:30 Releases for Bagnell Reservoir on Osage River provided by Ameren Power, typically well after 9:00

• 9:00-10:00 Issue Kansas and Missouri River daily forecasts. Products provided Corps every 10 minutes

• 9:10 Provide daily precipitation report to Corps via email

• 9:30, 10:00 Provide Missouri River tributary flows to Corps



Chronology of Forecasting Events Chronology of Forecasting Events ContinuedContinued

• 10:16 Begin retrieving Kansas City Corps bulletin and reservoir release forecasts

• 10:35 Retrieve Omaha District bulletin

• 10:20 Provide QPF ensemble scenario forecasts to NCRFC, WFOs and Corps

• 11:00 Retrieve Missouri River forecasts from Corps RCC

Documents

NOAA National Weather Service Missouri River Forecaster’s Meeting Kansas City, Missouri November 2010 Ross Wolford Senior Operations Hydrologist Missouri