NOAA's Space Weather Program  Contributions to NSWP

December 12, 2005

Presented toNSWP Assessment Team

NOAA’s Space Weather Program

• One of 45 Programs in NOAA• Charter Established, 2005• Mission Requirements

1. Continuously Monitor, measure, and specify the space environment

2. Provide timely and accurate space weather, operational forecasts, alerts, and warnings of hazardous space weather phenomena

3. Provide scientific stewardship of, and public access to, space wather data

4. Understand the processes that influence space weather develop applications for the user community

5. Develop new and improved products and transition them into operations to meet evolving space weather needs

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NOAA’s relationship to National Program

TerrestrialWeather

Coasts

Oceans

SpaceWeather

Fresh Water

Soil Moisture

Estuaries

Air Quality

Atmosphere

SnowPack

Environmental Services

Includes all observing systems required to support NOAA's mission (NOAA and non-NOAA data sources)

Space weather observations are integrated into NOSA

NOAA Observing Systems Architecture (NOSA)

NOAA is focused on building “an integrated global environmental observation and datamanagement system”—an Earth observation system that is comprehensive and sustained.

Design observing systems that support NOAA's mission and provide maximum value.

Monitor, Measure and Specify Data

for Today’s Space Weather

NOAA POES

NOAA GOES

NASA ACE

NASA SOHO

L1• ACE (NASA)

– Solar wind speed, density, temperature and energetic particles

– Magnetic field strength and direction

• SOHO (NASA)– Solar EUV Images– Solar Corona (CMEs)

• GOES (NOAA)– Energetic Particles– Magnetic Field– Solar X-ray Flux– Solar X-Ray Images • POES (NOAA)

– High Energy Particles– Total Energy Deposition– Solar UV Flux

• Ground Sites– Magnetometers (NOAA/USGS)– Thule Riometer and Neutron monitor

(USAF)– SOON Sites (USAF)– RSTN (USAF)– Telescopes and Magnetographs– Ionosondes (AF, ISES, …)– GPS (CORS)

Energetic Particle Sensor (EPS) Monitors the energetic electron, proton, and alpha particle fluxes e: 0.6 to 4.0 MeV, p: 0.7 to 700 MeV, a: 4 to 3400 MeV Lower energy electrons and protons begin on GOES N Heavy Ions begin on GOES R

Magnetometer (MAG) Monitors the vector magnetic field

0.512 second samples, ~0.1 nT sensitivity, +/- 1000 nT

X-Ray Sensor (XRS) Monitors whole-Sun x-ray brightness in two bands 1 - 8 Angstroms and 0.5 - 4 Angstroms

Solar X-ray Imager (SXI) – first on GOES 12 One - minute cadence, full disk, 5 arc sec pixels, 0.6 – 6 nm, 512 x 512 pixel array

Solar EUV Sensor (EUVS) – first on GOES N Monitors whole-Sun EUV irradiance in five bands between 10 and 125 nm

Coronagraph (SCOR) –GOES R ?? Pre-Planned Product Improvement (not yet manifested)

GOES: NOAA’s Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite

Space Environment Monitor (SEM) Instrumentation

GOES 8 (Launch: 4/13/94, EOL orbit raising 5/5/04) GOES 9 (Launch: 5/23/95, loaned to Japan) (Launch: 4/25/97, Operational)GOES 11 (Launch: 5/13/00, On-orbit storage)GOES 12 (Launch: 7/23/01, Operational)GOES N0P (Launch GOES N early 2006)GOES R Series starts 2012

GOES 10

SXI: NOAA-USAF-NASA partnership

Polar Observations (POES, METOP, NPOESS)

• POES and METOP– Total Energy Detector (TED)

• 50 eV to 20 KeV electrons and ions • Total energy deposition into atmosphere

– Medium Energy Proton And Electron Detector (MEPED)

• Electrons from 30 KeV to 2.5 MeV• Ions from 30 KeV to 6.9 MeV• Protons 16 MeV to >140 MeV

– Solar Backscattered Ultraviolet (SBUV 2 or GOME on METOP)

• Primarily an ozone sensor• Monitors solar irradiance from 140 to 340 nm

• NPOESS – HEPS,MEPS, LEPS

• Particle sensors• similar to TED and MEPED

– Thermal Plasma Sensor • Electric fields and plasma temperatures• similar to DMSP SSIES

– AURORA• UV airglow sensor• Similar to DMSP SSUSI

– Total Solar and Spectral Irradiance Sensor • similar to NASA SORCE TIM and SIM

• Operational SatellitesNOAA14 (marginal SEM, marginal SBUV)NOAA15 (working SEM, no SBUV)NOAA16 (working SEM, working SBUV)NOAA17 (working SEM, working SBUV)NOAA-18 (working SEM, working SBUV)NOAA-N’ (2008)

METOP-1 (2006) European CollaborationMETOP-2 (2010) European CollaborationNPOESS (2013?)

Examples of Ground-Based Observationsused in Space Weather Operations

• Solar– AF SEON, NSO SOLIS, HAO

Mauna Loa, NJIT Big Bear, Stanford Wilcox, Mt. Wilson, Penticton radio F10.7, NSO GONG

• Cosmic Rays– Thule and McMurdo Neutron

Monitor

• Ionosphere– AF DISS Network and other

globally distributed ionosondes– NOAA CORS and other global

GPS networks

• Magnetic Field– USGS and Intermagnet

Magnetometers

• Energetic particle precipitation– Thule RIOmeter

Mt. Wilson Solar Magnetogram

Mauna Loa H-alpha

USGS Magnetometer

Real-time ionospheric electron density using CORS

• Near the Earth andunder the radiation belts -Shuttle and ISS ops:EVA scheduling, and occasional “sheltering”.Knowledge of current SWx situation required.

• In Cislunar and lunar orbits, lunar surface operations: Need for optimization of flight plans and ops with knowledgeof current/evolving SWx. Predictive capability of SWx enhancesexploration.

• Beyond the Moon - Ln and Mars: Need for optimizationof flight plans and ops with knowledge of current SWx conditions.Predictive capability enables exploration. Figure adapted from Fisher/NASA Hq

The Future: Observations are needed for Space Exploration

Core Space Science

Research

Living With a Star

NASA

TargetedSpace Weather

ResearchNSF/AF/ONR/NOAA

Center forIntegrated

Space WeatherModeling

NSF

Multi-UniversityResearch InitiativesAF/ONR

Space Weather Research Community

DoD SEC

Rapid Prototyping CentersVerification

Documentation

DoD Customers and Operations

Civilian Customers and Operations

CCMCModel Access

ValidationMetrics

Space Weather Model Development

Wang, Sheeley, Arge Solar Wind Model (Arge / NOAA CIRES)

Research to Operations: Testbed Products

Shue et al. Magnetopause Model (Detman / SEC)

POES Polar Cap Solar Protons (Evans, Greer / SEC)

CISM Ap Forecast Model (Weigel, Gehmeyr et al. / CU)

Weimer Magnetic Disturbance Model

(Weimer / MRC)

Polar Cap HF Propagation Model (Sauer / NGDC, Fuller-Rowell /

NOAA CIRES)

• Concept and Initiation– Be user focused (target highest priority needs)– Consider many sources of potential transition candidates

• Within and external to SEC (CISM, CCMC, USAF, commercial, etc.)

– Rank transition candidates against these factors:• Strategic Importance, Operational Significance, Implementation

Readiness

– Have commitment of SEC Management in SEC AOP

• Planning and Implementation– Employ appropriate level of project management principles– Use iterative development and validation– Generate routine experimental products in an operational-like

(systems and data) test bed environment

SEC Product Development and Transition Process

• Approval and Delivery– Track and sign off critical internal transition steps

• Documentation, software CM, support procedures, training, etc.

– Release as a NWS test product for external review– Finalize product and get SEC and NWS approval– Advertise new product in appropriately

• WWW, announcements, publications, meetings, etc.

• Maintain and Assess for Continual Improvement– Establish appropriate performance metrics– Track product performance through ongoing verification– Explore product enhancements or replacement as technology

evolves or new opportunities occur

SEC Product Development and Transition Process

Space Weather Week: Bridging the Gap of Research to Operations

An annual, and growing, event at NOAA SEC that includes:

• Space environment effects• Impacts on economy, health, and safety• Information for decision makers • Relevant research• Service enhancements• Vendor meetings• Interagency coordination• International Space Environment Services meetings

April 5 - 8, 2005

http://sec.noaa.gov/sww

A few of the agencies and industries that rely on NOAA

space weather services today:

• U.S. power grid infrastructure • Commercial airline industry • Dep. of Transportation ( GPS) • NASA human space flight activities • Satellite launch and operations • DoD Operations

DOENuclear Reg Comm

SchlumbergerNY/PJM Grid

BallLoral

NESDIS/SOCCDigital Globe

BoeingLockheedAerospaceEchostar

NASASpace Command

ISS AstronautsFAA

AmericanUnited Airlines

NorthwestContinental

Growth of Space WeatherGrowth of Space WeatherCustomersCustomers

NOAA SpaceEnvironmentCenter

Sunspot CyclesSunspot Cycles

Commercial Space Transportation

Airline Polar Flights Microchip technology

Precision Guided Munitions Cell phones Atomic Clock Satellite Operations Carbon Dating experiments GPS Navigation Ozone Measurements Aircraft Radiation Hazard Commercial TV Relays Communications Satellite Orientation Spacecraft Charging Satellite Reconnaissance & Remote Sensing Instrument Damage Geophysical Exploration. Pipeline Operations Anti-Submarine Detection Satellite Power Arrays Power Distribution Long-Range Telephone Systems Radiation Hazards to Astronauts Interplanetary Satellite experiments VLF Navigation Systems (OMEGA, LORAN) Over the Horizon Radar Solar-Terres. Research & Applic. Satellites Research & Operations Requirements Satellite Orbit Prediction Solar Balloon & Rocket experiments Ionospheric Rocket experiments Short-wave Radio Propagation

TOKYOOSAKA

HONG KONGSHANGHAI

CHICAGO

NEW YORK

82 N

#1

#1A

#2

#3

#4

UAL POLAR ROUTES

BEIJING

Source: M. Stills, UAL

• The number of products above does not include the NOAA POES and GOES, or NASA ACE real time solar wind data sets, which account for over 14 million file transfers per month

• Over 400 event-driven products were issued during each of the solar “minimum” years (1996 & 1997)

Annual Number of Space Weather Products Issued during Solar Cycle 23Annual Number of Space Weather Products Issued during Solar Cycle 23

Web Site: More than 30 million files transferred each month.– ~500,000 files created monthly with near-real-time data for 176 products– more than 250,000 unique customers per month– customers from 150 countries

NOAA/SEC has end-to-end system responsibility for universally used space environment data acquired by the GOES and POES environmental satellites. SEC also supplies real time solar wind data from the NASA ACE satellite.

• A million solar wind files are downloaded from the SEC FTP server every month by nearly 25,000 unique customers

• Eight million GOES file transfers per month (web only) – 140,000 unique users monthly

• Five million POES file transfers per month (web only)– 185,000 unique users monthly– 30-40% of all NOAA/SEC customers use POES data

All the above numbers reflect monthly usage near solar minimum!

Average Monthly NOAA/SEC Internet Average Monthly NOAA/SEC Internet Traffic and Customer SummaryTraffic and Customer Summary

NOAA space weather alerts and NOAA space weather alerts and warnings are distributed by lead warnings are distributed by lead organizations to sister agencies and organizations to sister agencies and subordinate groups…subordinate groups…

NOAA/SECRadiation

Alert/Warning

NASA Space Radiation Analysis Group

NASA Mission Control•NASA Management•Flight Control•Biomedical Engineers•Surgeon

ESA (Europe) Mission Control

NASDA (Japan) Mission Control

CSA (Canada) Mission Control

RSA (Russia) Mission Control

Russian Inst. Biomedical Problems

Lockheed Martin Management

Service Begins

ACE RTSW customers are from 62 domains, the top users:

Japan U.S. Government .com (commercial) United KingdomEducation .net (commercial)Germany RussiaAustralia Belgium

46 ACE RTSW Data Displays on the SEC Public Web Site:

• 35 updating Plots, • 8 real-time lists• 3 special displays for S/C location, tracking, and current conditions "dials"

Extensive Usage of Real Time Solar Wind Data

• A million ACE solar wind files are downloaded from the SEC FTP server every month by nearly 25,000 unique customers

• SEC's public internet serves 4.8 million ACE RTSW data display files every month.

Loss of Solar Wind DataLoss of Solar Wind Data

Impact: Loss of service includes: ending many geomagnetic storm warning services and a significant decline in accuracy and timing for the remaining geomagnetic storm forecast products; loss of key data input to 16 space weather models in operations or in development; and loss of key data for vendor services.

• Critical solar wind data used by NOAA is broadcast from the ACE NASA research satellite

• ACE has long passed its expected 5 year life time

• There is no backup system (that meets requirements) to replace ACE when it fails

• NOAA’s broad area announcement is refining best cost and schedule options for replacement including: - collaborative data purchase - lowest cost government satellite - lowest cost Triana/DSCVR refurbishment

Extended Mission

Nominal Mission

1996 2000 20082004 2012 2016

ACE

No SolarWind

Measurements

ACE – Solar Wind Monitoring

Loss of NOAA’s Ability to Issue Warnings of Geomagnetic Storms

Issue #1: NASA will end ACE program (NASA’s research mission accomplished; however, ACE has fuel reserve to last to ~2015).

Solutions: Extend ACE solar wind monitoring by: ● NASA transfers ACE program to NOAA ● NOAA funds NASA to continue ACE program Issue #2: ACE fails Solutions: NOAA establishes monitoring by: ● Data buy or satellite program (start ~2010) ● Relying on non-U.S. source (e.g., KuaFu mission - proposed Chinese space weather satellite with a launch date ~2012)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Year

Nu

mb

er

of

mo

de

ls

Models - in development; being evaluated for operations; in use internationallyModels used in SEC Operations

Total (Estimated) Number of Space Weather Total (Estimated) Number of Space Weather Models Driven or Validated by ACE Solar Wind Models Driven or Validated by ACE Solar Wind

DataData

• SEC is unable to fund transition of critical models into operations• Without additional resources, the gap above will continue to grow• Customer demands for regional specification/forecasts - unmet

• ACE data directly drives five of the eleven SEC space weather watches and warnings, and influences the remaining six

P3I Coronagraph Needed to Improve Geomagnetic Storm Forecasts

A coronagraph will answer questions similar to those asked about hurricanes:

• Did a CME occur?• Will the CME hit the Earth, thus

causing a geomagnetic storm?• When will the storm begin?

- 1 to 3 days warning• How strong will the storm be?• How long will the storm last?

Hurricane Isabel 09/18/2003

NASA/ESA SOHO Research Coronagraph observes Coronal Mass Ejections (CME’s) during October/November 2004 Halloween Storms

NOAA/SEC Real Time Data NOAA/SEC Real Time Data - an - an absoluteabsolute requirement to support worldwide DoD operations requirement to support worldwide DoD operations

NOAA/SEC Data(Primarily Satellite)

- Critical loss of radar target tracking or creates false targets - Launch trajectory errors & payload deployment problems - Direct radiation hazard to high altitude aircrews - HF radio blackouts – comm impact to sensitive operations - SATCOM interference/downlink problems - Impede SAR (search & rescue) operations

>80% of ALL DoD space wx alerts/warnings rely on NOAA data

STRATCOM

USAFAir Force

Weather Agency

Joint Space Ops Center

Missile Defense Agency

Space Command

U.S. Northern Command and NORAD

Army and Navy Operations

National Reconnaissance Office

NationalSecurityImpacts

Impact AreaGeomagnetic and Radiation Storm

Predictions

Customer (examples) Action (examples) Cost (examples)

Spacecraft(Individual systems to complete spacecraft failure; comm and radiation effects)

Lockheed Martin, Orbital, Aerospace Corp, Boeing, Digital Globe, Sciences Corp, Space Systems Loral, NASA, NOAA, DoD

- Postpone launch - In orbit - Reboot systems; Turn off/safe instruments and/or spacecraft

Loss of s/c can exceed$500MCommercial loss exceeds $1BWorst case storm - $100B

Electric Power(Equipment damage to electrical grid failure and blackout conditions)

U.S. Nuclear Regulatory, Northeast Power Coordinating Council, Allegheny Power, Central Maine, American Transmission Company

Many mitigating actions:- adjust/reduce system load - disconnect components, - postpone maintenance.

-Estimated loss per year ~$400M from unexpected geomagnetic storms

- $3-6B loss in GDP (blackout)

Airlines (Communications)(Loss of flight HF radio communications)

United, Continental, Northwest, American, Lufthansa, Qantas Virgin, British Airways, Fedex, Air New Zealand, ExecuJet, etc.

Divert polar flights, change flight plansChange altitude

Cost ~ $100k per diverted flight

$10-50k for re-routes

Airlines (Radiation)(Radiation dose on crew and passengers)

United, Continental, Northwest, American, Lufthansa, Qantas Virgin, British Airways, Fedex, Air New Zealand, ExecuJet etc.

Divert polar flights, change flight plansChange altitude (even at mid-latitudes)

- Cost ~$100k per diverted

flight

- Health risks

Surveying & Navigation(Use of magnetic field or GPS could be impacted)

FAA-WAAS, New York and Texas Dept. of Transportation, BP Alaska, Schlumberger, GlobalSantaFe, etc.

Postpone activities; Redo survey; Use alternate or backup navigation tools

BP Alaska cost $10,000 per day, other surveys have similar costs

Vendor Industry(Servicing the Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC), and National Grid)

Northwest Research Assoc., INCSolar Terrestrial DispatchMetatech Corp.

Data used in real time to alert electric power companies of significant geomagnetic storms

Out of business without solar wind data!

Solar Wind – Critical Input in NOAA’s Space Solar Wind – Critical Input in NOAA’s Space Weather ProductsWeather Products

Solar Wind Monitor Impact of ACE Failure on Space Weather Services

• Only known method of producing accurate warnings of geomagnetic storms with ~1 hour lead time– > 90 % reliability of predicting major storms

• Complete loss of short term geomagnetic storm warnings– 5 classes of products lost (Impulse, K4, K5, K6, >K7)

• Impact on other geomagnetic storm watches• Impact on radiation storm products• Customer Impacts

– Only source of reliable short term warnings disappears– Commerce impacted: Electric Power, Radio Communication

including airlines, Pipelines, Vendor Industry– U.S. Space Program and Federal Agencies Impacted

• NASA, FAA, NRA– International commerce impacted, same effects world-wide

National Research Council Report

www.nap.edu

DoD and NOAA should be the lead agencies in acquiring all the data sets needed for accurate specification and forecast modeling…

Solar Wind Monitor NASA’s ACE satellite at L1

• Beyond design lifetime (1997-2002)• NASA currently funds through 2005• Solar Wind monitor follow-on planning underway in NOAA and partnerships are being explored

ACE SatelliteAt L1

Commercial Aviation:Now and Future

Polar Routes OpenPolar Routes Open late 1990s late 1990s

(UAL- 1/mo. to 4/day)(UAL- 1/mo. to 4/day)

Develop New ProductsDevelop New Products

Existing NWS StructureExisting NWS Structure WAFS/ICAOWAFS/ICAO

Joint Planning & Joint Planning & DevelopmentDevelopment

OfficeOffice

Next Generation AirNext Generation AirTransportation SystemTransportation System

Triple the CapacityTriple the Capacityof Airspaceof Airspace

Aircraft Fly HigherAircraft Fly Higher More Radiation and More Radiation and Navigation IssuesNavigation Issues

Need more Space WeatherNeed more Space WeatherProducts and ServicesProducts and Services

New Products in SystemNew Products in System

Need more Space Need more Space WeatherWeather

Products and ServicesProducts and Services

Predicted Polar Route Capacity

2005 Est. 2009 2014 2019

Capacity 228,000 384,000 972,000 1,768,000

Growth Rate

13.9% 20.4% 12.7%

Source: Transport Canada Assumptions Report 2005-2019, September 2005, p. 60

SEC Observation Sources

GOESGOES

POESPOES

ACEACE

SOHOSOHO

•DISSDISS

•IMSIMS•SCINDASCINDA

•SEONSEON

•SOONSOON