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Nominating the President
Congressional caucus between 1796 and 1824
By the 1840's both the Democrats and the Whigs were nominating by way of a national convention
Primaries began to dominate the process after the 1968 election; 41 states have them, delegates deliver the choice of the voters at the convention
The other 19 states have caucuses
Financing the nominating campaign
Prior to passage of the Federal Election Campaign Act of 1974 (FECA), the financing of presidential campaigns was almost completely unregulated
Five major features of the legislation included contribution limits, matching funds, spending limits, self-financing rules, and disclosure requirements
The Invisible Primary
The period of campaigning before any primary or caucus takes place is called the 'invisible primary'
Potential candidates use this period to raise funds, hire staff, gauge the mood of the electorate, and develop a campaign strategy
Candidates spend a lot of time in the states with early primaries and caucuses
Evaluating the nomination process
Increased democratization, but at what cost?
Activists tend to participate more than the average voter (resulting in a race to the middle during the general election)
States with early primaries get more attention
Over a Billion dollars was spent on the nomination process in 2012
Who selects the Vice President?
Before the primary system became dominant, vice-presidents were selected by convention delegates
Now, the process is entirely in the hands of the presidential nominees (Cheney chose himself)
Candidates often choose strategically, someone that will help them get elected
The Electoral College
Electors actually elect the president and the vice- president
To win, a candidate must receive 270 electoral votes (half plus one of the 538 eligible electoral votes)
There have been instances of candidates winning the popular vote but losing the electoral vote
Since there is a winner-take-all process in most states, there is a large-state bias in the Electoral College
Electoral College Continued
The electoral college impacts how candidates allocate their time and money on the campaign trail
Most candidates focus almost exclusively on the 'battleground states' (states that are polling close enough that they could be won by either candidate)
Voting Behavior
Voters do not often switch how they vote
This 'electoral inertia' is why the media has such a limited effect on elections
About 1/3 have decided who they're going to vote for before the primaries
By the end of the conventions, ½ to 2/3 have made up their minds
How Americans Decide
About 2/3 of Americans identify with one of the two major parties
Minorities, union members, Catholics, Jews, women, and urban residents are the base for the Democratic party
Business-persons, small town residents, Whites, Plains states, southerners, and evangelical protestants are the republican base
Policy concerns are not a dominant factor in most elections
Voting Models
Michigan Model: Voters vote based on the following three criteria:
1) Party ID
2) Candidate Characteristics (intelligence, integrity, experience, character)
3) Issues
Prospective Voting: voting based on what is desired in the future
Retrospective Voting: voting based on past performance
Do campaigns make a difference?
Campaigns generate excitement and attention, but don't change many votes
In a very close election, however, changing even a small number of votes could make a difference between winning and losing
Recent Electoral History
1970s and 80s – Republican lock; Democrats won only one presidential election between 1968 and 1992
1990s – Democratic resurgence – Clinton beat Bush in 1992 and Dole in 1996
2000 and 2004 – it took five weeks to determine the winner in 2000, Bush v Gore Supreme Court case; Bush beat Kerry in 2004, 51% to 48%
2008 and 2012: Obama beat McCain then Romney, both around 53-47