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cou
rtesy
of L
ouisi
ana
Depa
rtmen
t of T
rans
porta
tion
Peter Ricchiuti • Founder & Director of Research • Burkenroad ReportsGoldring/Woldenberg Hall II • Freeman School of Business
Tulane University • New Orleans, LA [email protected] • www.burkenroad.org
504.862.8489 • fax 504.865.5430
To receive complete reports on any of the companies we follow, contact:Peter Ricchiuti, Founder & Director of ResearchTulane UniversityA.B. Freeman School of BusinessBURKENROAD REPORTSPhone: (504) 862-8489Fax: (504) 865-5430E-mail: [email protected] visit our web site at www.burkenroad.org
A. B. FREEMAN SCHOOL OF BUSINESSPeter Ricchiuti, Founder & Director of ResearchBURKENROAD REPORTSGoldring/Woldenberg Hall II7 McAlister Dr.New Orleans, LA 70118–5669
Non-ProfitOrganizationU.S. Postage
PAIDNew Orleans, La.Permit No. 549
SIN
CE
1 993
____
___
SIN
CE
1 993
____
___
Compendium Shell 2018 finalv3.indd 1 2/7/18 3:46 PM
DJIA: 24,719.62 • S&P 500: 2,673.61 • Russell 2000: 1,535.40
January 2018
Bull markets are born in pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.
-Sir John Templeton (Heck, if an investor was knighted he must have been pretty good)
The S&P 500 generated a total return of 21.8% in 2017. But, that’s not nearly as impressive as the fact that each and every month produced a positive total rate of return. That’s unprecedented. Since the dark days of early 2009 the market has risen more than 300%. Now in its 103rd month, this has been the third longest U.S. economic expansion on record (the longest was the 120-month period from 1991-2001). It's now a
synchronized recovery with eight of the world’s ten largest economies growing their GDPs at above a 4% rate. We’re no longer the lonely economic engine of the world.
There seems to be a lot of good news already pumped into today’s share prices. The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey shows that a full 59.8% of individual investors are bullish while the historical average is just 38.5%. It hasn’t been this high since 2007 (uh-oh). Our students at BURKENROAD REPORTS meet top management, visit company sites, and publish investment research reports on 40 stocks under rocks in Louisiana, Texas, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and Florida. Since the inception of this academic program, hundreds of students have moved on to positions in investment related fields. These in-depth research reports, video presentations, and conference registration information are available at www.burkenroad.org.
IT’S LIKE JAZZFEST FOR CAPITALISTS Please join us for our 22nd Annual BURKENROAD REPORTS
Investment Conference on Friday, April 27, 2018 in New Orleans. It’s free, open to the public, and provides individual and
institutional investors an opportunity to meet management and to learn more about some of the region’s top public companies.
Please check our website for registration and additional details.
UPS AND DOWNS
Company/Symbol 2017 Total Return Headquarters Winners:
ION Geophysical/IO +229% Houston, TX Conn’s Incorporated/CONN +181% The Woodlands, TX Sanderson Farms/SAFM +51% McComb, MS LHC Group/LHCG +34% Lafayette, LA RPC, Inc/RES +30% Atlanta, GA
Losers:
Tidewater Incorporated/TDW -78% New Orleans, LA Team, Inc -62% Sugar Land, TX Hornbeck Offshore/HOS -57% Covington, LA Hibbett Sports/HIBB -45% Birmingham, AL PetroQuest Energy/PQ -43% Lafayette, LA Often times the stocks in a particular industry all move in the same direction. Not so much in 2017.
Generally, those companies servicing the oilfield suffered yet another miserable year. But, not all of them. ION Geophysical produces sophisticated seismic equipment to find oil and gas. RPC Inc is a successful oil services firm with nearly all of its operations in the booming low-cost basins of West Texas. Both rewarded investors in a big way. Meanwhile, the stocks of those companies operating offshore have drained the billfolds of investors. Tidewater (TDW) and Hornbeck (HOS) own big, impressive fleets of oilfield service vessels. Most of these remain at the dock. Oil prices closed the year at their highest point in 2 ½ years. But, industry experts think it will take consistently higher prices to attract energy companies back into the water. Amazon (or even the threat of Amazon) has frightened the bejeezus out of several industries. But, none more than retailers. Hibbett Sports lost almost half of its market value in 2017. Although improved success with their own online site led to a rally late in the year.
HUDDLE UP. Professor Ricchiuti and a team of students learn the finer points on frac sand as they met with the management of RPC a drilling site in West Texas.
On the other hand, Conn’s, a Texas-based retailer in the appliance, furniture, and bedding space might just be Amazon-proof. The Company focuses on the middle and lower middle-class consumer and owns its own financing operation. Marketing experts believe that those products that are heavy and require an entwined relationship between the seller and buyer are best suited to fight-off online encroachment. We’ll have to wait and see. While Amazon captured about 44% of all online sales, it accounted for only 4% of total U.S. sales in 2017. This year we added coverage to include:
Daseke (DSKE), First Guaranty Bank (FGBI), H&E Equipment Services (HEES), Home Bank (HBCP), Lamar Advertising (LAMR), Peoples Financial (PFBX), and SEACOR Marine (SMHI).
TIMBER!! Deltic Timber (DEL) has been an annual presenter at our conference for many years and is being purchased by fellow forester Potlatch (PCH). THE BURKENROAD MUTUAL FUND
Like a sure-handed shortstop in Paris, small cap value stocks were both un-recognized and under-appreciated in 2017. Last year large cap stocks significantly outperformed their small cap brethren, but the Hancock Horizon Small Cap Burkenroad Fund (HHBUX) racked up another positive year, 10.4%, and has outperformed 99% of all equity mutual fund since its inception on 12/21/2001.
Last March, Thomson Reuters Lipper ranked the fund as #1 in the small cap blended category over its first 15 years. In earning that distinction, the fund outperformed 237 funds in the category. Hancock’s portfolio managers utilize the student’s research, as well as other sources, in the management of the fund.
AIRBORNE. Our students left the ground to gain a better perspective on Bristow Group at a site visit in New Iberia, LA
POLITICAL ECONOMICS
It’s usually not a good idea to mix politics with investment decisions, but the stock market has certainly enjoyed an impressive run in the year since the night of Donald Trump’s presidential election.
President Year Return
1 Year after Election (S&P 500)
Clinton (D) 1996 33.1% Roosevelt (D) 1944 30.7% Roosevelt (D) 1932 30.6% Kennedy (D) 1960 27.0% Obama (D) 2012 24.4% Bush (R) 1988 22.2% TRUMP (R) 2016 21.5% Reagan (R) 1984 14.1% Clinton (D) 1992 10.8% Johnson (D) 1964 8.3%
Despite their fattened wallets, Americans have given Donald Trump the lowest approval ratings for a President in modern political history. INFLATION IS THE ENEMY OF FINANCIAL ASSETS
The greatest risk to investors is an unexpected acceleration of inflation. There are plenty of real reasons to believe that this economic villain is hiding right around the corner. These include: • policies leading to possible trade wars and tariffs • tax cuts that are expected to significantly increase the national debt • the weaker dollar raising the prices of commodities and imported goods • potential infrastructure spending (heaven knows that our roads, schools, and bridges need fixing)
stimulating the economy, but increasing the chance of higher inflation • a VERY tight labor market will lead to wage inflation
The current unemployment rate is 4.1% and falling (near a 50 year low!). I speak with business people all day long and their biggest frustration is finding workers in this job market! However, many business owners note that the “workforce participation rate” is only about 60% and there are plenty of potential workers that simply need to “get back in the game.” But, this measure incorporates everyone over 16 years of age including: retired people, those in school or training programs, the disabled and those at home taking care of their families. The unemployment rate is used to measure the current “slack” in the economy. In other words, how much the economy can expand without triggering significant inflation. Add all this to tougher immigration rules and you can see we are precariously close to an inflation tipping point.
Of course, some industries (including energy, materials, and banking) fare better than others in a more inflationary environment. Burkenroad Reports has about half of its coverage focused on these kinds of companies. MUSINGS
It’s been a bull market for everything and 2017 was a really good year to be rich with the values of stocks, bonds, and real estate all moving up. (OK, every year is a good year to be rich!) But, it’s the middle class consumer that really drives the economy and an ever-widening wealth gap is both troubling and economically dangerous. Ray Dalio is the founder of the world’s largest hedge fund and recently said: “Economically, America is now two separate countries. Income inequality is the greatest issue facing the U.S.” Strong returns and very little volatility have made investors complacent and self-assured. I wouldn’t be surprised if 2018 brings a far bumpier ride and a bull market in antacids. And as for Bitcoin and cryptocurrency, do you smell tulips??? THIS YEAR’S INVESTMENT CONFERENCE It’s New Orleans’ Tricentennial and the New York Times just named our fair town the number one city in the world to visit in 2018. Join us at the 22nd Annual Burkenroad Reports Investment Conference on Friday, April 27, 2018. Perhaps this year’s lineup of speakers and presenting companies can help everyone make heads or tails of this highly unusual stock market. STAY OPEN,
Peter Ricchiuti Founder & Director Burkenroad Reports
This button was given to me about eight years ago by Fenimore Asset Management. It has graced my desk ever since!
POULTRY IN MOTION. Our student team gets a feel for transporting chicken at Sanderson Farms in Laurel, MS.
To get a better feel for our program take a look at: Stocks Under Rocks; How to Uncover Overlooked, Profitable Market Opportunities. The book chronicles the Burkenroad Reports program and is filled with entertaining stories and important bits of investment wisdom we have learned over the past two decades.
Company
Ticker
Headquarters
INDU
STRY
EXCH
ANGE
StockPrice@
12/29/2017
Price
atR
eport/
TargetPrice
REPO
RTDAT
EBU
RKEN
ROAD
RAT
ING
DIVIDE
ND
YIELD
EV/EBITD
A(TTM
)RO
EM
ARKET
CAP(m
m)
YTD
RETU
RN
2017
Amerisa
feAM
SFDe
Ridder,LA
Insurance
NASD
AQ$6
1.60
$66.45
/$7
0.00
March2017
MarketP
erform
6.98
%11
.84
12.78%
$1,185
.27%
Bristow
Group
BRS
Houston,TX
OilfieldService
sNY
SE
$13.47
$14.07
/$1
3.00
November2
017
MarketU
nderperform
0.00
%24
.57
-13.75
%$4
76.4
-33%
CallonPetroleum
CPE
Natchez,MS
Oil&
Gas
Exploration
NYSE
$12.15
$11.82
/$1
2.00
November2
017
MarketP
erform
0.00
%13
.56
6.89
%$2
,452
.3-21%
Cal-M
aineFoods
CALM
Jackson,M
SEggDistrib
utor
NASD
AQ$4
4.45
$43.70
/$4
0.00
November2
017
MarketU
nderperform
0.00
%76
.57
-10.25
%$2
,159
.01%
ComputerP
rogram
s&S
ystems,Inc.
CPSI
Mobile,A
LHe
althcare
Service
sNA
SDAQ
$30.05
$28.15
/29
April2017
MarketP
erform
2.83
%19
.89
3.41
%$4
04.1
34%
Conn'sInc.
CONN
Woodlands,TX
RetailElectronics
NASD
AQ$3
5.55
$29.95
/$3
5.00
November2
017
MarketP
erform
0.00
%41
.37
0.83
%$1
,115
.218
1%
Crow
nCrafts
CRWS
Gonzalez,LA
JuvenileProducts
NASD
AQ$6
.45
$5.95/$
6.00
November2
017
MarketP
erform
11.16%
6.41
6.39
%$6
5.1
-11%
DasekeInc.
DSKE
Addison,TX
Trucking
NASD
AQ$1
4.29
NA
April2018
NA
0.00
%12
.32
-13.99
%$6
34.4
42%
DenburyResources
DNR
Plano,TX
Oil&
Gas
Exploration
NYSE
$2.21
$2.50/$3.77
April2017
MarketO
utperform
0.00
%11
.37
9.84
%$8
67.1
-40%
EastGroupPropertie
sEG
PJackson,M
SIndustria
lREIT
NYSE
$88.38
$73.01
/$78
March2017
MarketP
erform
2.90
%24
.98
12.87%
$3,028
.926
%
EvolutionPetroleum
EPM
Houston,TX
Oil&
Gas
Exploration
NYSE
$6.85
$7.05/$
8.00
November2
017
MarketP
erform
4.38
%10
.57
12.50%
$223
.8-28%
FirstB
ancshares
FBMS
Hattiesburg,M
SCommunity
Banking
NASD
AQ$3
4.20
$27.80
/$2
7.00
April2017
MarketP
erform
0.44
%NM
6.80
%$3
81.9
25%
FirstG
uaranty
Bancshares,Inc.
FGBI
Hammond,LA
Banking
NASD
AQ$2
5.00
$26.00
/$3
3.00
November2
017
MarketO
utperform
2.33
%NM
9.23
%$2
20.2
20%
GulfIsland
Fabrica
tion
GIFI
Houm
a,LA
OilfieldService
sNA
SDAQ
$13.43
$10.30
/$1
1March2017
MarketP
erform
0.30
%-9.68
-10.73
%$2
00.0
13%
Globalstar,Inc.
GSAT
Covington,LA
Wire
less
Communica
tions
NYSE
$1.31
$1.62/$
2.50
November2
017
MarketO
utperform
0.00
%95
.92
-49.41
%$1
,651
.5-17%
H&EEquipm
entS
ervices
HEES
BatonRouge,LA
Rental&Le
asing
Service
sNA
SDAQ
$40.65
NA
April2018
NA
2.71
%16
.23
22.39%
$1,449
.287
%
HibbettS
ports
HIBB
Birm
ingham
,AL
Sportin
gGo
ods
NASD
AQ$2
0.40
$17.10
/$1
6.00
November2
017
MarketU
nderperform
0.00
%4.03
10.34%
$389
.4-45%
HomeBancorp,Inc.
HBCP
Lafayette,LA
Banking
NASD
AQ$4
3.22
NA
April2018
NA
1.30
%NM
9.72
%$3
21.8
15%
HornbeckOffshore
HOS
Covington,LA
OilfieldService
sNY
SE$3
.11
$4.63/$
4.00
November2
017
MarketP
erform
0.00
%98
.74
-6.44%
$115
.2-57%
IBERIABA
NKCorporatio
nIBKC
Lafayette,LA
Banking
NASD
AQ$7
7.50
$71.60
/$8
2.00
November2
017
MarketO
utperform
1.91
%NM
5.12
%$4
,174
.9-4%
Investar
ISTR
BatonRouge,LA
Banking
NASD
AQ$2
4.07
$23.40
/$2
7.00
November2
017
MarketP
erform
0.52
%NM
5.94
%$2
10.1
30%
Cov
erag
e U
nive
rse
Perf
orm
ance
Upd
ated
as
of D
ec 2
9, 2
017
Company
Ticker
Headquarters
INDU
STRY
EXCH
ANGE
StockPrice@
12/29/2017
Price
atR
eport/
TargetPrice
REPO
RTDAT
EBU
RKEN
ROAD
RA
TING
DIVIDE
ND
YIELD
EV/EBITD
A(TTM
)RO
EM
ARKET
CAP(m
m)
YTD
RETU
RN
2017
IONGe
ophysical
IOHo
uston,TX
OilfieldService
sNA
SDAQ
$19.75
$4.55/$
1.60
April2017
MarketU
nderperform
0.00
%7.12
-94.25
%$2
34.9
229%
LamarAdvertisingCo.
LAMR
BatonRouge
REITandEquity
Trust
NASD
AQ$7
4.24
NA
April2018
NA
4.47
%14
.95
28.42%
$7,307
.620
%
LHCGroup
LHCG
Lafayette,LA
HomeHe
althCare
NASD
AQ$6
1.25
$67.65
/$1
21.00
November2
017
MarketO
utperform
0.00
%13
.04
10.25%
$1,119
.634
%MarineProducts
Corporation
MPX
Atlanta,GA
Recreatio
nal
Boats
NYSE
$12.74
$11.04
/$1
3.00
April2017
MarketO
utperform
2.20
%15
.08
29.82%
$443
.1-4%
MidSouthBancorp
MSL
Lafayette,LA
Community
Banking
NYSE
$13.25
$14.75
/$1
6Ap
ril2017
MarketP
erform
0.30
%NM
-2.46%
$219
.30%
NewparkResources
NRWoodlands,TX
OilfieldService
sNY
SE$8
.60
$9.55/$
11.00
November2
017
MarketP
erform
0.00
%20
.03
0.86
%$7
67.4
15%
PeoplesF
inancia
lCo.
PFBX
Biloxi,M
SBanking
NASD
AQ$1
3.00
NA
April2018
NA
0.31
%NM
2.16
%$6
6.6
-19%
PetroQ
uestEnergy
PQLafayette,LA
Oil&
Gas
Exploration
NYSE
$1.89
$2.86/$6.00
April2017
MarketO
utperform
0.00
%7.65
0.00
%$4
0.2
-43%
PoolCorporatio
nPO
OLCovington,LA
PoolProducts
NASD
AQ$1
29.65
$120
.50/$
125.00
November2
017
MarketP
erform
1.14
%19
.03
106.45
%$5
,207
.627
%
PowellIndustries
POWL
Houston,TX
Electrica
lEquipm
ent
NASD
AQ$2
8.65
$33.41
/$3
2Ap
ril2017
MarketU
nderperform
3.63
%-49.62
-2.89%
$327
.4-21%
RPCIncorporated
RES
Atlanta,GA
OilfieldService
sNY
SE$2
5.53
$25.50
/$2
5.00
November2
017
MarketU
nderperform
1.37
%18
.11
16.33%
$5,529
.430
%
Ruth'sHo
spita
lity
RUTH
Heathrow
,FL
Restaurants
NASD
AQ$2
1.65
$20.15
/$2
2Ap
ril2017
MarketP
erform
1.66
%11
.19
34.56%
$651
.522
%
SandersonFarm
sSA
FMLaurel,M
SChick
en
Processin
gNA
SDAQ
$138
.78
$94.72
/$1
04.00
March2017
MarketP
erform
1.64
%5.23
21.00%
$3,167
.751
%
SEAC
ORHoldings
CKH
FortLa
uderdale,
FLOilfieldService
sNY
SE$4
6.22
$64.78
/$6
7.00
April2017
MarketP
erform
0.00
%10
.82
1.96
%$8
25.5
9%
SeacorM
arine
Holdings,Inc.
SMHI
Houm
a,LA
MarineCargo
Holding
NYSE
$11.70
$12.60
/$1
6.00
November2
017
MarketO
utperform
0.00
%-12.93
-16.07
%$2
06.8
0%
SharpsCom
pliance
SMED
Houston,TX
WasteDisp
osal
NASD
AQ$4
.09
$4.77/$
6.00
March2017
MarketO
utperform
0.00
%45
.06
1.18
%$6
5.5
7%
SparkEnergy
SPKE
Houston,TX
Electricity
Marketin
gNA
SDAQ
$12.40
$11.90
/$1
6.00
November2
017
MarketO
utperform
5.85
%2.81
14.42%
$163
.0-10%
Superio
rEnergy
Service
s,Inc.
SPN
Houston,TX
OilfieldService
sNY
SE$9
.63
$9.61/$
11.00
November2
017
MarketP
erform
0.00
%39
.50
-23.03
%$1
,474
.2-43%
Team
Incorporated
TISI
SugarLand,TX
Industria
lServices
NYSE
$14.90
$13.05
/$1
3.00
November2
017
MarketU
nderperform
0.00
%99
.78
-28.07
%$4
45.7
-62%
Tidewater
TDW
NewOrle
ans,LA
OilfieldService
sNY
SE$2
4.40
$54.25
/$3
6.27
November2
016
MarketU
nderperform
0.00
%46
.53
-2.35%
$732
.0-78%
NA
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OH, THE PLACES THEY WILL GO!
Burkenroad Student Company Site Visits
The Burkenroad Reports program is named in honor of William B. Burkenroad Jr., an alumnus and a longtime supporter of Tulane’s business school. Funded through contributions from his family and friends, BURKENROAD REPORTS is a nationally recognized program, publishing objective, investment research reports on public companies in our region.
The late Aaron Selber was the program’s best friend and benefactor. A native of Shreveport, he was a family man, investor, business man, civic leader, philanthropist, and graduate of Tulane’s Business School (and a darn good first baseman.) When Aaron first came to us in 1995 we were a small non- credit course
with a handful of students producing research on just the public companies we could reach on the St. Charles Avenue streetcar. The generosity of Aaron and his wife Peggy Burkenroad Selber allowed us to become what we are.
Burkenroad KreweBurkenroad Team (Left to Right): Peter Ricchiuti, Marie Daigle, Anthony Wood, Jennifer Brady, Deirdre Fuchs, Robert Morton
We keep getting bigger and better. The Goldring/Woldenberg Business Complex opened in January 2018.
Come by and take a look.
The Friends of BURKENROAD REPORTS
For information about becoming a supporterplease contact Marie Daigle, 504-862-8496
Arnof Family Foundation B.A.”Red” Adams, Sr.
Invest with pride.Invest in your region.
Mutual fund investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Current and future holdings are subject to risk. Smaller companies typically exhibit higher volatility.
To determine if this Fund is an appropriate investment for you, carefully consider the Fund’s investment objectives, risk factors, and charges and expenses before investing. This and other information can be found in the Fund’s full or summary prospectus, which may be obtained by calling 800-990-2434 or visiting hancockhorizonfunds.com. Please read it carefully before investing.The Hancock Horizon Family of Funds is distributed by SEI Investments Distribution Co., which is not affiliated with Hancock Holding Company, or any of its affiliates.
Hancock Horizon Funds:
NOT FDIC INSURED NO BANK GUARANTEE MAY LOSE VALUE
The Hancock Horizon Burkenroad Small Cap Fund (HIBUX and HHBUX) invests in small companies located or doing business in Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida and Georgia. In addition to our own research and analysis, we use Tulane University’s Burkenroad Reports for individual company research. To learn more about the Hancock Horizon Burkenroad Small Cap Fund please visit our website, hancockhorizon.com.
Map
cou
rtesy
of L
ouis
iana
Dep
artm
ent o
f Tra
nspo
rtatio
n
Peter Ricchiuti • Founder & Director of Research • Burkenroad ReportsGoldring/Woldenberg Hall II • Freeman School of Business
Tulane University • New Orleans, LA [email protected] • www.burkenroad.org
504.862.8489 • fax 504.865.5430
To receive complete reports on any of the companies we follow, contact:Peter Ricchiuti, Founder & Director of ResearchTulane UniversityA.B. Freeman School of BusinessBURKENROAD REPORTSPhone: (504) 862-8489Fax: (504) 865-5430E-mail: [email protected] visit our web site at www.burkenroad.org
A. B. FREEMAN SCHOOL OF BUSINESSPeter Ricchiuti, Founder & Director of ResearchBURKENROAD REPORTSGoldring/Woldenberg Hall II7 McAlister Dr.New Orleans, LA 70118–5669
Non-ProfitOrganizationU.S. Postage
PAIDNew Orleans, La.Permit No. 549
SIN
CE
1 993
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SIN
CE
1 993
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___
Compendium Shell 2018 finalv3.indd 1 2/7/18 3:46 PM