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7/30/2019 North Dakota Budget And Fiscal Trends
1/25
Budget and Fiscal Trends
Prepared by the North DakotaLegislative Council Staff
January 8, 2013
7/30/2019 North Dakota Budget And Fiscal Trends
2/25
$14.8 $68.0 $295.5$361.8
$996.8
$69.0
$1,739.1
$2,162.7
$2,520.7
$2,753.0
$4,271.9
$4,783.2
$157.8
$154.7
$194.6
$1,179.7
$621.8
$14.5
$0.0
$1,000.0
$2,000.0
$3,000.0
$4,000.0
$5,000.0
$6,000.0
$7,000.0
2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13 2013-15
Millions
Executive Budget
Beginning Balance Ongoing Revenues Transfers
Actual Actual Actual Actual
Genera l Fund Revenue s
Beginning Bala nc e, Ongoing Revenues, and Transfer s
Average biennial ongoing revenues increasefrom 2003-05 to 2011-13 is 15.4%
Governors recommended ongoing
revenues increase is 12.0%
Total$1,911.7
Total$2,385.4
Total$3,010.8
Total$5,890.5
Total$4,866.7Total
$4,294.5
2
7/30/2019 North Dakota Budget And Fiscal Trends
3/25
$717.8
$841.9$1,046.5
$1,267.2
$2,131.7
$2,523.1
$452.5
$587.7
$681.7 $729.3
$883.1$926.1
$102.9 $232.3$239.7 $234.4
$372.2 $380.5
$465.9$500.8
$552.8 $522.2
$884.9$953.5
$0.0
$500.0
$1,000.0
$1,500.0
$2,000.0
$2,500.0
$3,000.0
2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13 2013-15
Millions
Executive Budget
Sales Tax Individual Income Tax Corporate Income Tax Others
ActualActualActualActual
General Fund Revenues Major Revenue Types
Actual average biennial sales tax increasefrom 2003-05 to 2011-13 is 32.7%
Governors forecasted sales taxtax increase is 18.4%
3
7/30/2019 North Dakota Budget And Fiscal Trends
4/25
$33.4 $56.6$153.0 $305.8
$884.2
$1,331.9
$38.8 $53.9 $87.8$205.9
$246.2
$520.3
$161.8
$191.4$1,073.3
$1,481.1
$120.5$242.1 $558.3
$1,056.5
$1,464.1
$1,603.6
$0.0
$1,000.0
$2,000.0
$3,000.0
$4,000.0
$5,000.0
2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13 2013-15
Millions
Executive Budget
State Share Legacy Fund Tribes Political Subdivisions Special Funds
ActualActualActualActual
Tot a l Oi l & Gas Gross Product ion Tax
and Oi l Ex t rac t ion Tax Revenues
Total$352.6
Total$799.1
Total$3,829.6
Total$5,128.3
Total$192.7
Total
$1,568.2
4
7/30/2019 North Dakota Budget And Fiscal Trends
5/25
$71.0 $71.0 $71.0 $71.0
$300.0 $300.0$49.5 $171.1
$487.3
$985.6
$341.8 $341.8
$800.3$939.8
$22.0
$22.0
$0.0
$200.0
$400.0
$600.0
$800.0
$1,000.0
$1,200.0
$1,400.0
$1,600.0
$1,800.0
2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13 2013-15
Millions
Executive BudgetState disaster relief fund Strategic investment and improvements fund
Property tax relief sustainability fund Permanent oil tax trust fundGeneral fund
ActualActualActualActual
St at e Share of Oi l & Gas Gross Produc t ion Tax
and Oi l Ex t rac t ion Tax Revenues
Total$242.1
Total$558.3
Total
$1,464.1
Total$1,603.6
Total$120.5
Total$1,056.6
5
7/30/2019 North Dakota Budget And Fiscal Trends
6/25
$1,816.9$2,000.5
$2,574.3$3,296.6
$4,236.7
$4,786.2
$2,132.2$2,347.2
$2,494.7
$3,682.2
$3,319.5
$3,182.6
$1,157.5$1,438.0 $1,555.0
$1,960.2
$3,042.8
$4,815.9
$0.0
$1,000.0
$2,000.0
$3,000.0
$4,000.0
$5,000.0
$6,000.0
2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13 2013-15
Millions
General Fund Federal Funds Special Funds
Executive
Budget
Appropr iat ions General Fund, Federal Funds,
and Spec ia l Funds Appropr iat ions
Average biennial general fund
increase from 2003-05 to 2011-13is 23.8%
Governors recommendedgeneral fund increase is 13.0%
6
7/30/2019 North Dakota Budget And Fiscal Trends
7/25
$2,317.6
$2,981.2
$3,534.6
$3,795.7
$256.7
$315.4
$702.1
$990.5
$0.0
$1,000.0
$2,000.0
$3,000.0
$4,000.0
$5,000.0
$6,000.0
2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13 2013-15
Millions
Ongoing One-Time Total
Total$2,005.5
Total$2,574.3
Total$3,296.6
Total$4,236.7
28.6%Increase
18.6%Increase
Appropr iat ions Ongoing and One-Tim e
General Fund Appropr iat ions
7
7.4%Increase
Total$4,786.2
Executive
Budget
7/30/2019 North Dakota Budget And Fiscal Trends
8/25
$604.8 $636.7
$715.5
$1,114.7
$1,244.0
$1,043.3
$411.1$484.4
$593.9
$652.1
$941.0
$1,176.9
$364.0$389.6
$472.0
$593.4
$657.8
$912.6
$83.5
$105.2
$173.1 $167.1 $159.6 $180.0
$0.0
$200.0
$400.0
$600.0
$800.0
$1,000.0
$1,200.0
$1,400.0
2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13 2013-15
Millions
K-12 Human Services Higher Education Corrections
Appropr iat ions Major Genera l Fund Appropr ia t ions
Average increase-21.3%2013-15 biennial decrease-16.1%
Average increase-23.6%2013-15 biennial increase-25.1%
Average increase-16.2%2013-15 biennial increase-38.7%
Average increase-20.6%2013-15 biennial increase-12.8%
8
ExecutiveBudget
7/30/2019 North Dakota Budget And Fiscal Trends
9/25
$39,038.0
$43,236.0
$51,996.0
$57,675.0
$69,503.0
$80,037.0
$1,816.9 $2,000.5$2,574.3
$3,296.6
$4,236.7
$4,786.2
$0.0
$1,000.0
$2,000.0
$3,000.0
$4,000.0
$5,000.0
$6,000.0
$7,000.0
$8,000.0
$9,000.0
$0.0
$10,000.0
$20,000.0
$30,000.0
$40,000.0
$50,000.0
$60,000.0
$70,000.0
$80,000.0
$90,000.0
2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13 2013-15
MillionsMillions
Personal Income General Fund Appropriations
Appropr ia t ions Com par ison o f Genera l Fund Appropr ia t ions
and Tota l Personal Inc om e
Personal income -Cumulative percentageincrease 128.1%
Appropriations -Cumulative percentageincrease 176.9%
9
ExecutiveBudget
7/30/2019 North Dakota Budget And Fiscal Trends
10/25
$364.0$389.6
$472.0
$593.4
$657.8
$912.6
$408.4
$491.1
$553.2
$634.6
$639.0
$686.5
$0.0
$100.0$200.0
$300.0
$400.0
$500.0
$600.0
$700.0
$800.0
$900.0
$1,000.0
2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13 2013-15
Millions
General Fund Appropriations Tuition and Fee Revenue
Total$772.4
Total$880.7
Total$1,025.2
Total$1,227.9
Total$1,296.8
Total$1,599.1
Higher Educ at ion Genera l Fund Appropr ia t ions and
Tui t ion and St udent Fee Revenue
Average biennial tuition and feerevenue increase from 2003-05 to2013-15 is 11.2%
Average biennial general fund increase
from 2003-05 to 2011-13 is 16.2%
Governors recommendedgeneral fund increase is 38.7%
10
Executive
Budget
7/30/2019 North Dakota Budget And Fiscal Trends
11/25
35,910 35,511 35,585 38,232 38,896 39,057
$364.0 $389.6
$472.0
$593.3
$657.8
$912.6
$200.0
$300.0
$400.0
$500.0
$600.0
$700.0
$800.0
$900.0
$1,000.0
2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13 2013-1520,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
Millions
Average Annual FTE Enrollment General Fund Appropriations
Higher Educ at ion Genera l Fund Appropria t ions
and Ful l -Tim e Equival ent (FTE) Enrol l m ent s
Average FTE enrollmentincrease from 2003-05 to2011-13 is 2.1%
Average biennial general fund increasefrom 2003-05 to 2011-13 is 16.2%
Governors recommended
general fund increase is 38.7%
Projected enrollmentincrease is 0.4%
11
Executive
Budget
7/30/2019 North Dakota Budget And Fiscal Trends
12/25
$2,014
$2,413$2,588
$2,818 $2,959$3,107 $3,107 $3,107 $3,147 $3,187
$3,408
$3,996
$4,375$4,780
$5,019$5,270
$5,455$5,646
$5,964 $6,037
$2,628
$3,086$3,379
$3,701
$3,886 $4,080$4,223
$4,371$4,480
$4,592
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13
Two-Year Institutions Research Institutions Other Four-Year Institutions
Higher Educat ion Res ident Tu i t ion Rat es
Average annual increase-5.4%
Cumulative increase-58.3%
Average annual increase-6.7%
Cumulative increase-77.2%
Average annual increase-6.5%
Cumulative increase-74.7%12
7/30/2019 North Dakota Budget And Fiscal Trends
13/25
$599.5 $631.0
$713.0
$1,106.7
$1,233.7
$1,031.5
$69.5 $71.6
$76.2
$86.3
$101.6
$140.3
$85.6
$26.2$4.2
$714.2
$0.0$200.0
$400.0
$600.0
$800.0
$1,000.0
$1,200.0
$1,400.0
$1,600.0
$1,800.0
$2,000.0
2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13 2013-15
Millions
Property tax relief
Federal and other special funds (fiscal stimulus in 2009-11; education jobs and oil impact in 2011-13)
State tuition fund
General fund - School aid and other general fund grants
Total$669.0
Total$702.6
Total$789.2
Total$1,282.8
Total$1,361.5
Total$1,886
K indergar t en Through Grade 12
St at e Sc hool Aid and Ot her Grant Funding
13
Average biennial total funds increasefrom 2003-05 to 2011-13 is 21.5%
2013-15 biennial total
funds increase is 38.5%
ExecutiveBudget
7/30/2019 North Dakota Budget And Fiscal Trends
14/25
9,159 9,1209,079
9,015
9,046 9,0839,228
9,264 9,3079,461
101,137
99,32497,120
95,600
94,05793,405
93,71594,729 95,778
99,192
80,000
85,000
90,000
95,000
100,000
105,000
110,000
115,000
120,000
8,000
8,500
9,000
9,500
10,000
10,500
11,000
11,500
12,000
2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13
Teachers Student Enrollment
K indergar t en Through Grade 12
Teachers and St udent Enro l lment
Average annual personnelincrease from 2003-04 to
2012-13 is 0.36%
Average annual enrollmentdecrease from 2003-04 to
2012-13 is 0.2%
14
7/30/2019 North Dakota Budget And Fiscal Trends
15/25
$1,508.9
$1,680.1$1,884.8
$2,290.4
$2,648.5
$2,790.5
$1,010.8$1,097.9
$1,184.6
$1,522.6$1,593.5
$1,488.8
$411.1 $484.4$593.9 $652.1
$941.0
$1,176.9
$87.0 $97.8 $106.3 $115.7 $114.0 $124.8
$0.0
$500.0
$1,000.0
$1,500.0
$2,000.0
$2,500.0
$3,000.0
2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13 2013-15
Millions
Total Funds Federal Funds General Fund Special Funds
Depar tm ent o f Human Serv ices
General Fund and Tot a l Funds Appropr iat ions
Average increase-15.2%2013-15 biennial increase-5.4%
Average increase-12.4%2013-15 biennial decrease-6.6%
Average increase-23.6%2013-15 biennial increase-25.1%
Average increase-7.1%2013-15 biennial increase-9.5%
15
ExecutiveBudget
7/30/2019 North Dakota Budget And Fiscal Trends
16/25
$891.1
$989.1
$1,114.8
$1,362.2
$1,604.6
$1,751.8
$619.9 $675.4$740.7
$953.9 $969.1 $933.7
$271.3$313.8
$374.1$408.3
$635.5$818.1
$0.0$200.0
$400.0
$600.0
$800.0$1,000.0
$1,200.0
$1,400.0
$1,600.0$1,800.0
$2,000.0
2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13 2013-15
Millions
Total Funds Federal and Other Funds General Fund
Depar tm ent o f Human Serv ices Medica id Funding
Average biennial total funds increasefrom 2003-05 to 2011-13 is 15.9%
Governors recommendedtotal funds increase is 9.2%
16
ExecutiveBudget
7/30/2019 North Dakota Budget And Fiscal Trends
17/25
$318.4$343.0
$371.5
$425.7
$459.6$501.3
$190.6$211.7
$274.4
$341.5
$397.0
$502.4
$98.1$121.3
$153.2
$198.4
$239.9
$258.6
$48.3 $55.9
$59.9
$99.6 $104.7$121.6
$95.2 $66.3
$57.7 $50.9 $50.5 $44.9$0.0
$100.0
$200.0
$300.0
$400.0
$500.0
$600.0
2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13 2013-15
Millions
Nursing Homes Developmental Disabilities Hospitals Physicians Drugs
Depar tm ent o f Human Serv ices Major Medica id Cost s
17
ExecutiveBudget
7/30/2019 North Dakota Budget And Fiscal Trends
18/25
68.36% 68.31%67.49%
65.85%
64.72%63.75%
63.15% 63.01%
60.35%
55.40%
52.27%
50.00%
72.82%
67.49%
63.75%
69.95%
60.35%
40.00%
45.00%
50.00%
55.00%
60.00%
65.00%
70.00%
75.00%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
FMAP Fiscal Relief FMAP Enhanced FMAP (ARRA)
The enhanced FMAP included in theAmerican Recovery and ReinvestmentAct of 2009 of 69.95% was effective for
the 2009 and 2010 federal fiscal yearsand the first quarter of the 2011 federalfiscal year. The enhanced FMAP wasreduced to 66.95% for the secondquarter of 2011 and to 64.95% for thethird quarter (which ended June 30,2011).
Depar tm ent o f Human Serv ices
Federal Medic al Ass is t anc e Perc ent age (FMAP)
In 2013 the FMAP will be the lowestsince 1979 when it was 50.71%.
18
7/30/2019 North Dakota Budget And Fiscal Trends
19/25
$318.4
$343.0$371.5
$425.7$459.6
$501.3
$31.2
$37.7
$39.8
$63.9 $66.1$69.4
$10.0
$20.0
$30.0
$40.0
$50.0
$60.0
$70.0
$100.0
$200.0
$300.0
$400.0
$500.0
$600.0
$700.0
2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13 2013-15
MillionsMillions
Nursing Home Care Home and Community-Based Care
Depart m ent o f Human Services Nurs ing Home and
Home and Com m uni ty -Based Care Funding Tota l Funds
Average biennial increase from2003-05 to 2011-13 for home andcommunity-based care is 22.6%
Average biennial increase from2003-05 to 2011-13 for nursinghome care is 9.6%
Governors recommendedincrease for nursing homecare is 9.1%
Governors recommended increasefor home and community-based careis 4.9%
19
Executive
Budget
7/30/2019 North Dakota Budget And Fiscal Trends
20/25
$83.5
$105.2
$173.1 $167.1
$159.6
$180.0
1,295
1,405 1,445
1,478 1,490 1,484
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
$0.0
$20.0
$40.0
$60.0
$80.0
$100.0
$120.0
$140.0
$160.0
$180.0
$200.0
2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13 2013-15
Millions
General Fund Appropriations
Average Daily Inmate (Incarcerated) Count
Average biennial inmate count increasefrom 2003-05 to 2011-13 is 3.6%
Depar tm ent o f Correc t ions and Rehabi l it a t ion
General Fund Appropr iat ions and Inmat e Count s
Average biennial generalfund increase from 2003-05to 2011-13 is 20.6%
Governors recommendedgeneral fund increase is 12.8%
Includes $41 million of one-timefunding for 2007-09 and $22.5 millionof one-time funding for 2009-11
20
Estimated inmate countdecrease is 0.4%
ExecutiveBudget
7/30/2019 North Dakota Budget And Fiscal Trends
21/25
644.18677.28
711.29 735.29794.29 814.29
1,295
1,4051,445
1,478 1,490 1,484
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13 2013-15
FTE Positions
Average Daily Inmate (Incarcerated) Count
Depar tm ent o f Correc t ions and Rehabi l it a t ion
FTE Posi t ions and Inm at e Count s
Average biennial inmate count increasefrom 2003-05 to 2011-13 is 3.6%
Average biennial FTE position increasefrom 2003-05 to 2011-13 is 5.4%
Governors recommendedFTE position increase is 2.5%
21
Estimated inmate countdecrease is 0.4%
ExecutiveBudget
7/30/2019 North Dakota Budget And Fiscal Trends
22/25
1,170
1,248 1,291
1,3091,326
1,322
125
157154 169 164 162
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13 2013-15
Average Daily Female (Incarcerated) Count
Average Daily Male Inmate (Incarcerated) Count
Total1,295
Total1,405
Total1,445
Total1,478
Total1,490
Total1,484
Depar tm ent o f Correc t ions and Rehabi l it a t ion
Inmat e Count s
22
ExecutiveBudget
7/30/2019 North Dakota Budget And Fiscal Trends
23/25
8,386.05 8,437.68
8,828.17
8,930.13
9,036.42
9,160.24
7,800
8,000
8,200
8,400
8,600
8,800
9,000
9,200
9,400
2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13 2013-15
Governors recommendedincrease is 123.82
St at e Em ployees Tot a l FTE Pos i t ions(Ex c lud ing H igher Educ at ion)
FTE positions increase from2003-05 to 2013-15 is 774.19
Increase of 390.49 includes 132.20added to the Department of HumanServices for state administration ofchild support
23
ExecutiveBudget
7/30/2019 North Dakota Budget And Fiscal Trends
24/25
$638.3 $673.5$814.5
$1,205.4$1,461.9
$1,135.4$375.6$420.3
$507.8
$684.4
$1,054.5
$2,268.5
$0.0
$500.0
$1,000.0
$1,500.0
$2,000.0
$2,500.0
$3,000.0
$3,500.0
$4,000.0
2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13 2013-15
Millions
General Fund Appropriations
Special Funds Appropriations and Revenue Allocations
Major Di rect Ass is tanc e to Po l i t ic a l Subdiv is ions(Inc luding Sc hool-Relat ed Funding)
Total$1,013.9
Total$1,093.8
Total$1,889.8
Total$2,516.4
Total$1,322.3
24
ExecutiveBudget
Total$3,403.9
7/30/2019 North Dakota Budget And Fiscal Trends
25/25
$685.2 $722.2$800.6
$1,220.4$1,362.8
$1,902.5
$73.3 $83.9$103.5
$124.9 $207.6
$246.5
$109.0 $121.6$141.2
$153.7
$153.4
$190.9
$65.9 $76.9$107.6
$183.5
$274.0
$546.8
$35.0
$190.0
$142.0
$80.5 $89.2$169.4
$172.4
$328.7
$375.3
$0.0
$500.0
$1,000.0$1,500.0
$2,000.0
$2,500.0
$3,000.0
$3,500.0
$4,000.0
2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13 2013-15
Millions
Other Appropriations and Revenue Allocations
Select Transportation Funding Distributions
Coal-Related and Oil-Related Taxes
Motor Vehicle Fuel Tax and Registration Fee Allocations
State Aid Distribution Funds
School-Related Funding (2009-11 and after include property tax relief)
Major Di rect Ass is tanc e to Po l i t ic a l Subdiv is ions(Inc luding Sc hool-Relat ed Funding)
Total$1,013.9
Total$1,093.8
Total$1,889.8
Total$3,403.9
Total$1,322.3
25
ExecutiveBudget
Total$2,516.4