North District – What’s happening with Supply and is it a good matchDwelling Type Generally across North District, there is greater diversity of housing type than the

Greater Sydney average, with separate houses comprising 49.1% of residential stock compared to 52.5% in Greater Sydney; 9.0% attached dwellings compared to 12.9% in Greater Sydney; and 32.9% flats compared to 26.0% in Greater Sydney. However there is significant variation between LGAs within the District.

At the 2016 census, separate houses comprised between 9.7% (North Sydney) and 69% (Hornsby) of all dwellings. Mosman has the second lowest proportion of separate houses at 31.4% of all dwellings.

For attached dwellings (row, terrace and townhouses), the range is between 3.8% (Ku-ring-gai) to 15.1% (Ryde). For flats the range is from 16.4% (Hornsby) to 66.0% (North Sydney.

Some North District LGAs have a good mix of dwelling types, while others not so much. For example in North Sydney 9.7% of dwellings are separate houses, with 8.1% as attached dwellings and 66% as flats. This can be compared to Ryde where 44% of dwelling are separate houses, 15.1% are attached dwellings and 33.2% are flats, or Hornsby with 69.0% separate houses, 8.2% attached dwellings and 16.4% flats.

The graph below gives the proportion of each key dwelling type at the 2016 Census for every LGA in North District compared to Greater Sydney.

Perhaps unsurprisingly the harbour/beachside LGAs of North Sydney, Mosman and Northern Beaches had a much higher proportion of unoccupied dwellings (11.5%, 11% and 9.4% respectively) compared to the Greater Sydney average (7.6%).

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Hornsb

y

Hunter's

Hill

Ku-ring-g

ai

Lane C

ove

Mosman

North Sy

dney

Northern

Beach

es Ryde

Willo

ughby

Greater

Sydney

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10.0

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60.0

70.0

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100.0Dwelling Type - North District - 2016

Unoccupied

Other and not stated

Caravan, cabin, houseboat, im-provised dwelling

Flats

Semi, row, terrace, townhouse

Separate house

This high rate of unoccupied dwellings is due in part to the impact that Airbnb and other short term rentals have had on the rental market in North District. Research has shown that Manly and Palm Beach in particular has been a focus for Airbnb hosts, accounting for between 11.2% and 14.8% of rental housing stock, compared to 3.38% for Greater Sydney1.

Research suggests the proliferation of Airbnb has resulted in a disruption in the long term housing market which provides an additional difficulty for long term renters to find affordable rental housing2. This issue further highlights the need for housing strategies that account for local issues and a commitment to development of flexible, affordable and appropriate rental accommodation.

Bedroom Mix Across North District, the proportion of homes which are studios comprises just 0.7% of

all dwellings, ranging from 0.2% in Ku-ring-gai to 2.2% in North Sydney. For one bedroom homes the average for North District is 9.4%, with a range from 3.3% in Ku-ring-gai to 22.0% in North Sydney.

The average proportion of two bedroom dwellings in North District is 26.6%, ranging from 14.5% in Ku-ring-gai to 41.9% in North Sydney.

For three bedroom homes, the average for the District is 28.2%, ranging from 24.3% in Mosman to 31.6% in Hunters Hill. While for four or more bedrooms the North District average is 33.3%, ranging from 7.6% in North Sydney to 52.9% in Ku-ring-gai.

Overall the District has very low proportions of studio dwellings. Some LGAs (North Sydney, Mosman, Lane Cove, Willoughby and Ryde) have reasonable proportions of one bedroom dwellings and most have a good mix of two bedroom dwellings. Generally, larger bedroom homes predominate, and this is particularly the case in Hornsby, Hunters Hill and Ku-ring-gai.

It is worth noting that lone person and couple only households at 2016 comprised between 40% (Hornsby and Ku-ring-gai) and 61% (North Sydney) of all households. Yet combined studio and one and bedroom stock in Hornsby at 2016 comprised only 5.1% of all dwellings. In Hunters Hill lone person and couple only households comprised 47% of all households, yet studio and one bedroom stock make up only 8.4% of all dwellings. In Ku-ring-gai lone person and couple only households comprise 40% of all households, yet studio and one bedroom dwellings comprise only 3.5% of all dwellings.

These LGAs in particular have a poor match between the types of households who live there and the bedroom mix available, although they are not the only LGAs in this District requiring a better match between household type and suitable stock. North Sydney has the best bedroom mix compared to household type in the District with 66.1% of all dwellings being either studio, one or two bedroom properties, and 61% of all households being either lone person or couple only.

Two bedroom homes are regarded as the most flexible as they can provide for lone person, couple only and small family households.

It is worth noting that new dwelling construction comprises 1 – 2% of total dwellings (depending on the development cycle) with the remaining 98-99% of homes being existing established dwellings. Consequently additions to existing stock can have a significant impact on the bedroom mix and long term suitability of housing stock to meet housing need, including household size and affordability. Therefore it is important to

1 “Technological disruption in private housing markets: the case of AirBnB” AHURI October 2018 (Crommelin et al)2 Ibid.

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note the increase in four bedroom dwellings suitable for families through such additions and not just consider new construction of two bedroom flats.

The table below gives the proportion of dwellings sizes across North District LGAs at the 2016 Census.

Tenure The majority of households in North District own (32.3%) or are purchasing (31.6%) their

home, with a further 27.0% renting in the private rental market at the 2016 Census. North District has seen a slight reduction in the proportion of outright ownership and of

households purchasing properties and an increase in the proportion of households privately renting between 2011 and 2016.

The decline in the proportion of households owning their home outright between 2011 and 2016 ranged from a slight increase of 0.8% in North Sydney to -3.7% in Lane Cove, compared to -1.4% for the Greater Sydney average. The decline in households purchasing in North District between 2011 and 2016 was -0.8% and is against the trend in Greater Sydney, where the proportion of households with a mortgage increased by 3.6%.

The change in the proportion of households in private rental over the same period ranged from -1.2% in Hunter’s Hill to 3.7% in Lane Cove, compared to 1.9% across Greater Sydney and 1.0% overall in North District.

Despite these changes, North District still reports a higher rate of home ownership (32.3%) and home ownership with mortgage (31.6%) than the Greater Sydney average (27.7% and 31.5% respectively). The rate of outright homeownership ranges from 23.3%

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(North Sydney) to 41.1% (Ku-ring-gai) and the rates of home ownership with mortgage range from 19.9% (North Sydney) to 38.5% (Hornsby).

Lane Cove, Mosman, North Sydney, Ryde and Willoughby have a higher proportion of private rental than the average for Sydney of 28%, while Hornsby, Hunter’s Hill, Ku-ring-gai and Northern Beaches have a lower proportion of private rental than the Sydney average. The higher proportion of private rental provides flexibility to meet changing household needs throughout the housing life cycle, while those LGAs with very low proportions of private rental (such as Ku-ring-gai, with just 14.7%) have much less flexibility.

The graph below shows the proportion of households in each key tenure type for each LGA in the North District at the 2016 Census. (Note that Rent SHA means State Housing Authority.)

Public Housing The table below shows the number of public housing properties in the Northern District

as of June 2017.

Area Public Housing Stock (June 2017)

Hornsby 622

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Hunter's Hill 344

Ku-ring-gai 18

Lane Cove 204

Mosman 42

North Sydney 582

Northern Beaches 1,246

Ryde 1,552

Willoughby 435

Greater Sydney 76,116

The table below shows the expected waiting times for general housing approved social housing applicants (not for priority housing applicants) by bedroom category in the Northern District. This District has a lower than average amount of social housing compared to other Sydney Districts and waiting times for general housing are between 5-10 years or 10+ years depending on allocation zone or bedroom numbers.

Northern Suburbs Zone Northern Beaches Zone

Bedroom No Expected waiting time Bedroom No Expected waiting time

0-1 5-10 years 0-1 10+ years

2 10+ years 2 10+ years

3 5-10 years 3 5-10 years

4+ 5-10 years 4+ 10+ years

The Gap There is a large and growing gap between the increasing number of low income

households in the private rental market and the declining numbers of affordable private rental properties. This results in very high proportions of very low and low income

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households in rental stress and in lower income households being forced to relocate out of the District.

Despite the predominance of high income households in this District, there are a growing number of low income households, a diminishing to almost non-existent supply of private rental accommodation that is affordable for lower income earners and a very tight rental market. There is also evidence of disruption in the housing market from Airbnb and other short term rental platforms. At the same time there is clearly strong demand for private rentals, in part generated by proximity to employment opportunities and educational, transport and health amenities.

There is a need for more targeted affordable private rental housing, including studios, one and two bedroom dwellings, new generation boarding houses and secondary dwellings to meet some of this demand and in response to the high proportions of seniors and frail aged in this District. Due to the increasing number of low income households and high proportions of these households in rental stress, it is also important that any new housing is also affordable for these households.

The graph below compares the number of low income renters at 2006, 2011 and 2016, with the number of affordable rental properties at 2006, 2010 and 2017, for each LGA in the North District. Note that as Hornby’s boundaries changed in 2016, so data from 2010/2011 and 2016/2017 are not directly comparable – nevertheless it still gives an indication of the general data trend.

While some parts of the District have diversity of both dwelling type and bedroom mix, and a reasonable fit between household type and bedroom number (for example North Sydney and Willoughby) others have little diversity and a poor fit between household type and bedroom number.

This lack of fit is likely to worsen, with the DPIE forecasting an increase in lone person and couple only households, and the ageing of the population, unless proactive measure are taken to improve the mix.

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Hornsby

Hunter's Hill

Ku-ring-gai

Lane Cove

Mosman

North Syd

ney

Northern Beach

esRyd

e

Willoughby

0 500

1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000

Change in low income renters compared with change in affordable rental for low income earners - North District

Low income renters 2006

Affordable rental properties 2006

Low income renters 2011

Affordable rental properties 2010

Low income renters 2016

Affordable rental properties 2017

This issue is evident through the predominance of three and four or more bedroom properties in 2016, despite the fact that lone person and couple only households comprise between 40% (Hornsby) and 60.8% (North Sydney) of all households in this District. Couples with young children might purchase a two or three bedroom property and add on more bedrooms as their families grow and the needs of their family change. However, when their children leave home, parents are not necessarily downsizing, meaning there are increasing numbers of underoccupied homes. There are tax disincentives to downsizing, including stamp duty, but there is also insufficient housing choice to encourage empty nesters to downsize and make larger homes available for families. It is important that housing supply addresses housing needs throughout the housing life cycle. As mentioned above, it is important to factor in the impact of additions to existing stock and not just look at new construction of residential dwellings, when looking at supply and the match to household type.

The high and growing numbers of lone person and couple only households suggests there is scope and demand for more studio, one and two bedroom stock. Given the high numbers of seniors and frail aged in this District, secondary dwellings would also be an appropriate housing response.

Most importantly any housing that is constructed must cater to the needs of the whole community, including lower income households.

The graph below compares the number of couple only and lone person households with the number of studio and one bedroom dwellings for each LGA in the North District at the 2016 Census.

Who needs affordable housing A wide range of people need affordable housing. Single income earners who fall into the

low income category include aged care and disability workers, retail sales assistants, production workers, receptionists and early career child care workers. People working in

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accommodation and food services comprise around 8% of the workforce nationally and are amongst the lowest paid workers.

Single income households in particular are less able to compete in the housing market. Increasing numbers of older single women are homeless or at risk of homelessness due

to the lack of available affordable rental housing. A 2017 survey of NSW Nurses and Midwives Association (NSWMA) members showed

that thirty six per cent of respondents moved home or changed jobs in the previous 12 months because of housing affordability issues.

NSWNMA said the lack of affordable housing was having a major impact on Sydney nurses in particular, pushing nurses and midwives to move further away from the hospitals and services they work in and locking them into long commutes. Further, it is causing difficulties in recruiting and retaining nursing staff.

A recent study on key worker housing3 in Sydney found that:o “there is evidence to suggest that high house prices and rents are ‘pushing

out’ some of Sydney’s key workers…” (p4)o “Some key workers groups, such as nurses and police, also struggle to find

affordable rental accommodation in Sydney’s inner and middle ring….” (p5)o “Housing affordability for key worker groups is likely to decline further without

effective market innovation or policy change.” (p5)

Additional DataMore detailed housing data and tables used in this Snapshot are available from the Local Government Housing Kit Database on the FACS website at:

https://www.facs.nsw.gov.au/resources/nsw-local-government-housing-kit/chapters/local-government-housing-kit-database

More information on public housing waiting times is available on the FACS website at:

https://www.facs.nsw.gov.au/housing/help/applying-assistance/expected-waiting-times

Additional data on social housing delivery is available on the FACS website at:

https://www.facs.nsw.gov.au/resources/statistics/social-housing-delivery

More information about community housing providers is available on the NSW CHIA (Community Housing Industry Association) website, including their affordable housing tool kit. The Tool Kit is based on extensive research about reasons for community resistance to affordable housing, and effective ways of building support for affordable housing:

https://nswfha.wpengine.com/lb/toolkits/ahtk/toolkit/

The NSW CHIA 2018 community housing state of the industry report is also available:

http://communityhousing.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/StateoftheIndustry-web.pdf

Link to story on NSWNMA site about the impact on nurses of lack of affordable housing:

https://www.nswnma.asn.au/nswnma-backs-affordable-housing-for-essential-workers/

3 Key worker housing affordability in Sydney. A report prepared for Teachers Mutual Bank, Firefighters Mutual Bank, Policy Bank and My Credit Union by Nicole Gurran, Catherine Gilbert, Yuting Zhang and Peter Phibbs. January 2018

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