North East Rural Evidence Base Part 2

8/7/2019 North East Rural Evidence Base Part 2

1/73

Rural Policy Support

One North East

Working Paper 2

July 2009


2/73

Contents1 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................................................................... 12 BUSINESS AND ECONOMY......................................................................................................................................................... 33 EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS...................................................................................................................................................... 134 SOCIAL EXCLUSION AND ACCESS ............................................................................................................................................ 165 QUALITY OF LIFE AND PROMOTION ........................................................................................................................................ 216 TYPOLOGIES .......................................................................................................................................................................... 247 REFLECTIONS ON THE SUITABILITY OF DATA........................................................................................................................... 358 RURAL FUTURES NORTH EAST ................................................................................................................................................ 389 ANNEX A CONSULTEES......................................................................................................................................................... 5110 ANNEX B BIBLIOGRAPHY....................................................................................................................................................... 5311 TECHNICAL APPENDIX 1 - PROVIDING AN EVIDENCE BASE FOR THE UPLAND AREAS ................................................................. 5612 TECHNICAL APPENDIX 2 - METHODOLOGY FOR MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS................................................................................ 5913 TECHINCAL APPENDIX 3 IMPLICATIONS OF USING LSOA GEOGRAPHY FOR ANALYSIS OF BUSINESS GEOGRAPHY ...................... 67


3/73


4/73

2Rural Policy Support Working Paper 2, July 2009

futures exercise. It has been produced as a response to the

evidence base within input from a peer review panel and is

intended to help inform policy for One North East and have

wider implications for the North East Region..

Technical appendices1.9 This report also contains three technical appendices:

The first, written by NERIP, explains the issues around

determining the boundaries of the North East Uplands

according to administrative (i.e. data) geographies. This

relates to the analysis undertaken as part of the Evidence

Base (see Working paper 1)

The second, written by Paul Cowie at the University of

Newcastle, sets out the statistical methodology used to

determine the typologies The third, written by NERIP, highlights a particular health

warning with respect to the typologies, that is the use of

business unit data from the Annual Business Enquiry.


5/73


6/73


7/73


across England has been hit badly by the current economic

downturn. The closure of anchor stores can affect the wider

retail economy in smaller towns; the disappearance of

Woolworths from many high streets appears to have hit themparticularly hard. Furthermore, consultees suggested a

reduced loyalty to local retailers by rural residents,

evidenced by greater use of supermarket delivery services as

an alternative to shopping locally.

AgricultureEmployment data can hide the full economic picture

2.10A range of issues relating to rural and specifically

agricultural employment can make it hard to judge the

health of the rural economy using statistical data alone:

Official surveys of employment do not present data on

employment in the agricultural sector at a low enough

spatial level to support analysis. This gap is particularly

acute in the Annual Business Inquiry (see the section on

data)

Official statistics are also poor at monitoring seasonal

and migrant labour in the agricultural sector, which at

times can be a very significant element of overall sector

employment. This group of employees can act assomething of a buffer for the industry in lean times:

farms can reduce migrant and seasonal workers in the

first instance, which helps to protect the core workforce.

But it is a contraction which does not appear in official

statistics.

In addition, employment figures for the sector do notreflect the very large numbers of agricultural workers or

business owners that are self-employed, or those

contract workers whose economic activity levels are

likely to vary substantially from month to month. Over

the years, farms have reduced their full time workforce

to cut costs, and many rely increasingly on this contractlabour. Contracting is also used by farmers and their

families as a means of bulking up farm income.

A strong culture of self-sufficiency means that rural

areas tend to demonstrate much lower levels of benefits

claimants. So benefits data may not tell the whole story

about rural unemployment or under-employment.

Limited opportunities for food supply chain development2.11The type and quality of land in the North East heavily

influences the nature of its agricultural output. As the

Evidence Base shows, the area of cultivatable land available


8/73


9/73


10/73


11/73


12/73


13/73


14/73


traditional rural areas.

The rural periphery2.44At the other end of the rural scale are parts of the North

Easts rural periphery, and particularly North Northumberland

and the far western reaches of the Uplands. Here, population

is much more sparse and the economy appears to be of very

low value in terms of wages and business performance. This

is likely to be related to the greater reliance on lower value

economic activity in sectors such as agriculture and tourism,which are also highly seasonal.

2.45While a potentially sizeable undeclared economy may exist in

these areas, it seems likely only to provide a subsistence level

of income for many, rather than it acting as an informal

driver of productivity. While agricultural productivity has

risen over time, this is more likely to have happened as a

result of business advances in the lowlands and among arable

farms.

2.46These spatial/geographic differentials within the rural North

East are further explored in the typologies section.

Reviewing rural enterprise2.47Consultee views supported the findings of wider literature

and research in demonstrating that the nature of rural

enterprise is slightly different to that in urban areas, and is

difficult to capture in a formal way. However, there are

some broad issues that arise from the research which are

likely to be of interest to policymakers:

recognising the potential value of in-migrants as an

important source of growth-focused rural entrepreneurs

viewing the rural economy as a starting point and

eventual feeder route for some firms which may, in

time, need to relocate to the regions urban areas for

important business reasons

accepting the critical importance of quality broadbandprovision to support the potential of increased home

working in rural areas

promoting the value of the rural work ethic in helping

businesses to overcome some common urban

employment issues, such as high staff turnover and

reliability


15/73


3 EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLSEmployment flowsGrowing long distance commuting

3.1 The Evidence Base relied on old (Census 2001) information

on commuting patterns. The consultations suggest that long

distance commuting is perhaps even more common today.

Consultees from the Uplands noted that work done to

support the Northumberland National Park LocalDevelopment Framework highlighted material levels of long

distance out commuting from settlements within the Park.

Evidence of reverse commuting3.2 Anecdotal evidence from stakeholders appears to reinforce

the hypothesis in Working Paper 1 that rural-urbancommuting is not all one way. Employment opportunities in

some of the lower value industries, such as the hospitality

sector, were thought to be attracting workers from within the

regions urban areas. This clearly complicates the

understanding of rural (and urban) economic performance

and begs further questions:

while rural areas may still be net exporters of employees

to the urban centres, this masks another story (albeit

probably smaller in volume) about the urban

contribution to rural business performance

it may suggest that there are (predominantly low wage)

jobs in rural areas which are not attracting the

indigenous workforce

equally, the issue may be more about the capacity of the

rural labour force to meet the needs of the rural

economy during the seasonal peak demand periods

associated with agriculture and tourism

3.3 There is not enough information available to make a

judgement.

Employment patternsHome working links to the agricultural sector

3.4 In an urban context, home working is often characterised as

being linked to the service sector (desk-based and related to

white collar jobs), such as business or personal services, orperhaps arts and crafts. However, consultees noted that, in a

rural setting, some of those working from home will be

engaged in land based industries.

3.5 Notwithstanding this issue, consultees thought it highly likely

that the numbers of service-oriented (white collar) rural

home workers would have increased substantially since the

2001 Census (the source for the Evidence Base) especially in

areas with access to high speed broadband - the provision of

good broadband access was considered to be highly valuable,

if not essential to such home workers.


16/73


RURAL SNAPSHOTA home-based creative industry in NorthumberlandUnison Colour manufacture hand-made art materials from a

barn adjacent to the owners residence in Tarset, which sits in

the Northumberland National Park.

The company produces half a million sticks of soft artists

pastels a year, selling across the UK, Europe and North

America.

Education and skillsSome rural schools are struggling with enrolment

3.6 A number of consultees thought that the impact of an ageing

population was already being felt by rural primary schools.

Some, it was suggested, were struggling to fill places andtheir long term future was uncertain. This is one of many

issues linked to the planning system, which is discussed later

in this report.

Lack of HE/FE provision in rural areas3.7 Information from HEFCEs regional profile of 2007 highlights

the lack of Higher and Further education provision within the

regions rural areas. Northumberland has only one FE college

(Northumberland College) based in Ashington, with

associated centres in Alnwick, Berwick, Blyth, Ponteland and

Prudhoe. The college also has a mobile learning centre. In

County Durham, FE provision away from the major urban

areas can be found in Consett (Derwentside College) and

Bishop Auckland (Bishop Auckland College). A virtual college

has been set up to reach parts of western Northumberland

(see Rural Snapshot)

3.8 The regions universities are concentrated in the major

conurbations. This leaves very large areas of the rural region

especially to the west without easy access to FE or HE

provision. According to Defras rural district classification

system, the City of Durham is considered rural, and it has

its own university. However, through the consultations it

became clear that regional stakeholders viewed this as an

anomaly in the classification, rather than seeing Durham as

some sort of rural university.

RURAL SNAPSHOTVirtual Learning in TynedaleThe Tynedale Virtual College is an initiative designed to bring

additional vocational learning opportunities to rural parts of

western Northumberland. Part-funded by One North East,

the college is able to provide courses in Haydon Bridge,

Hexham, Prudhoe and Ponteland using local schools as

bases. It also works with colleges and work-based learning

providers.

Attitudes to higher end skills3.9 One consultee from the business sector considered that rural


17/73


businesses struggled to recruit high quality people from the

local workforce to fill senior positions within the public and

private sector. They considered that training and

qualifications were not sufficiently highly valued, and that

there was a lack of developmental opportunities within rural

businesses.

ConclusionThe sustainability of economic flows

3.10The economic flows between urban and rural areas in the

North East and especially people are of paramount

importance in understanding the full economic contribution

of the rural region. Many rural residents rely on the urban

areas for employment opportunities, although the evidence

would suggest that this is not one way traffic.

3.11The implications of this large scale, daily movement of

people to work are considerable. Long distance commuting

has environmental implications, while increasing home

working more common in rural areas may provide a more

sustainable alternative. More widely, there may be knock-on

effects for those rural towns where local residents are

squeezed out of the housing market because of the long

term increase in prices caused by an influx of relatively

wealthy in-migrants.

3.12While consultees had mixed views of whether the issue of

rural-urban commuting was a problem, it is clearly a reality.

Its importance and its associated challenges (particularly

around sustainability) are key parts of the Futures work,

which is considered in Section 6.

Rural education3.13The level at which education and skills data are available

means that the rural picture on qualification performance is

quite generalised (district level data only), and the findings

with it.

3.14Nevertheless, it is clear that the sparsity of rural areas placessignificant challenges on the supply and delivery of learning,

from primary schools with dwindling attendance through to

FE and HE where larger numbers of learners are required to

break even. Technological advances are clearly an option

here - another good reason for quality rural broadband

provision.


18/73


19/73


20/73


an aversion to signing on, meaning that claimant rates

may not provide a full picture of rural worklessness

people taking multiple, low value jobs to get by,

creating an undeclared economy

increased rates of part time working, perhaps as an

alterative to unemployment (for example, Tynedale and

Berwick-upon-Tweed have low unemployment and high

part time employment rates relative to other rural areas,

and particularly those post-industrial districts in County

Durham)

failure or unwillingness to access employment support

services such as job centres, both because of the stigma

associated with it, and the lack of penetration of

services in remote areas, making them geographically

remote.

The role of the third sector4.13As with enterprise and business support, consultees

suggested that issues around rural worklessness and

deprivation might also be better routed through local

community interfaces, rather than with formal official

institutions, because of the same wariness about dealing with

officialdom. However, those consultees with a greater

knowledge of the sector thought that rural voluntary and

community organisations struggled to some extent with

capacity to deliver these services.

RURAL SNAPSHOTUnderstanding rural worklessnessNorthumberlands Removing Barriers to Work Partnership

(2007 and 2008) has undertaken a detailed examination of

rural worklessness in the county. It identified four key areas

where barriers existed to addressing worklessness at delivery

level. Not all of them are unique to rural areas (e.g.

childcare), but they do help to demonstrate the range of

additional challenges that exist:

Economic - poor local job markets; travel costs to accesstraining and services; predominance of part-time/seasonal

work; low wage culture; childcare issues

Environmental inadequate and inflexible public transport;lack of local training opportunities; the absence of Further

Education

Personal - difficulties with the processof getting into work;family and womens issues; skills not matching job

opportunities; motivation, loss of confidence and self-

esteem.

Cultural - low wage culture, low aspirations and lowentrepreneurial culture; stigma attached to worklessness andunemployment


21/73


HousingPlanning as a barrier to sustainable communities

4.14A large number of consultees pointed to the planning system

as a barrier to the development of sustainable rural

communities, and specifically the provision of more rural

housing.

4.15Many referred to the findings of the Taylor Review of Rural

Economy and Affordable Housing as being relevant to the

regions rural area. Many rural settlements across the

country have struggled to retain balanced populations in

recent years, and as a result have lost their school, shop or

transport connections due to a declining population. New

housing would help these shrinking settlements by creating

additional demand to bring back key services. However,

sometimes the planning system requires them to be present

before any new development can be permitted. This vicious

circle can threaten the sustainability of already shrinking

rural communities.

4.16Consultees also mentioned two other factors relating to

planning and housing development:

the need for planning systems to take into account

changing patterns of living and working (e.g. home

working).

the potential opportunities afforded by the two new

Unitary Authorities to streamline planning processes

and make more consistent decisions

4.17The following Rural Snapshot shows how progressive

planning can help to overcome some of the problems often

associated with planning in rural areas.

RURAL SNAPSHOTPlanning in Northumberland National ParkThe Local Development Framework for the Northumberland

National Park recognises the need to allow proportionate

development to support the future sustainability of smaller

rural communities.

Its policies seek to enable the provision of new housing to

meet local needs (including livework units) and to

accommodate inward migrants linked to businesses that willpositively contribute to sustainability.

Reductions in rented accommodation4.18Anecdotal evidence from consultees suggested that pre-

recession house price buoyancy had resulted in a large

number of rental properties being lost to the rural region.With low rental yields and higher maintenance costs for older

rural dwellings, landlords were more inclined to sell up,

reducing the numbers available to potential tenants and

further squeezing the affordable housing market.


22/73


23/73


24/73


25/73


material for energy production.

5.14Two consultees were keen to see the development of micro-

generation of electricity in the rural region, believing it to

have real potential. But there are apparently problems with

the structure of the national grid which hinder small scale

power generation that can feeds back to the grid.

Conclusion5.15The rural environment and its assets are clearly a major

differentiator for the North East, a key reason why peoplewant to live, work and visit the region. While it is important

to try and assess their economic contribution, their full value

is always likely to be in excess of any number produced from

such research.

5.16There is clearly potential for exploiting the rural environment

for greater economic gain. The climate change agenda, andassociated growth in renewables, for example, are

considerable opportunities. However, it will be important to

pursue any considerations for economic development in a

way which sustains the environmental assets that are so

important to the regions identity and draw.


26/73


27/73


methodological sense because of the need to compare the

rural North East with England and other regions on a like-

for-like basis. But the typologies are unique to the region, so

there was scope for customisation of the data, and re-

inclusion of the towns. The decision to do this was based on

the importance these towns have on their rural peripheries as

centres of service provision and economic activity.

6.8 In creating the 2004 classification, a set of Larger Market

Towns (LMTs) was defined by Defra The classification was

based on a series of factors, such as size (population of 10-

30,000) and range of available services. Of the 207 LMTs in

England, 13 are in the North East. LSOAs for all of these have

been incorporated into the typologies to get a full picture of

the rural regions. They are listed in the following table1.

Larger Market Towns included in the TypologiesBerwick-upon-Tweed Peterlee

Morpeth Spennymoor

Ashington Bishop Auckland

Cramlington Newton Aycliffe

Hexham Eaglescliffe

Consett Guisborough

Stanley

1A full explanation of this definition is available here

Indicators6.9 As already noted, data was sourced where it was available at

LSOA level (each LSOA contains about 1,500 people). As a

first step, a broad range of data sets was identified at thislevel. The aim was to identify as many relevant data sets as

possible for the analysis, covering factors such as economic

activity; demographics; business density; commuting; access

to services; and housing affordability. The table below shows

the main data sets identified and their sources. While the

Census is eight years old, it is one of the most detailed

sources available at LSOA level, so it was retained.

Sources of data for the typologiesAnnual Business

Inquiry, 2008Workplace units

Index of MultipleDeprivation, 2007

Distance to local services; Access toowner occupation; Homelessness

Census, 2001

Distance travelled to work;

Employment in agriculture; Car

ownership; Home working; Means of

travel to work; Level 4/5 skills;

Housing tenure

NERIP Housing affordability

CLG, 2008Job Seekers Allowance; Incapacity

Benefits

ONS, 2006 Working age population


28/73


Analysis6.10 In the first phase of the analysis, the data sets were examined

for evidence of correlation with one another. A number of

the indicators showed no signs of correlation, and wereexcluded from subsequent phases (see Technical Appendix).

Of the remaining indicators, 13 were selected to ensure the

model delivered the greatest statistical significance.

6.11Factor analysis then grouped these 13 indicators into four

factors where strong correlations existed between them:

Factor 1 Remote rural: agricultural employment iscorrelated with remoteness from GP surgeries and

primary schools, and large numbers of home workers.

This is likely to characterise the more remote areas of

the rural region

Factor 2 Prosperity: High benefit claimant numbersare negatively correlated with numbers of two car

households and higher level skills, which helps to define

areas by their relative wealth

Factor 3 City Region proximity: Short distancecommuting is correlated with high working age

populations and high levels of owner occupation. This

suggests proximity to the major conurbations

Factor 4 Business activity: this factor contains asingle data set the number of workplace units which

provides an indication of business activity and density

6.12Subsequent cluster analysis then identified seven typologies

for the rural North East, with each typology being

characterised by its distinctive relationship to the four

factors. The following table shows how each typology rated

against each of the factors, while the next sub-section maps

the results and provides a broader narrative for each

typology.

TypologyFactor 1:Remote

ruralFactor 2:Prosperity

Factor 3:City

Regionproximity

Factor 4:Businessactivity

1 - ++ + +2 - - - +3 - + - =4 = -- - -5 - + + -6 + = + +7 ++ + - -Key:

- / -- Below/well below average

= Average

+ / ++ Above/well above average


29/73


ResultsGeneral observations

6.13Figure 2 shows the seven typologies mapped to the rural

LSOAs in the region. Overleaf, enhanced maps show in more

detail the higher population areas along Northumberlands

industrial coast, and in County Durham. LSOAs have broadly

similar populations, but their geographical sizes are

considerably different. This is relevant when looking at the

map where, for example, it may be easy to miss that there

are twice as many LSOAs (and therefore people) in Typology

1 as there are Typology 7. Figure 1 shows the number and

proportion of rural LSOAs within each typology.

Figure 1: Typologies as a proportion of rural LSOAs

Figure 2: Map of North East rural typologies

42,9%19,4%

119,24%

153,31%

100,20%

42,8%

21,4% Under

employed,

localisedeconomy

Industrialestates&

businessparks

Retiringcommunities

Economiccoldspots

Hardworking,

'aspirational'ruralsuburbs

Metrorural,'bestofboth

worlds'

Sparserural,lowvalue

economy


30/73


Figure 3: Typology map: Northumberland Industrial Coast Figure 4: Typology map: Central County Durham


31/73


32/73


33/73


34/73

reliant on the local agricultural economy, this remoteness Post-industrial/coalfields rural towns on the


35/73


reliant on the local agricultural economy, this remoteness

may instead bring poor wages and limited access to

important services

6.42Spatially, this typology characterises the most rural areas of

the region, covering large parts of the Uplands, but also

heading right up to Berwick and across to the

Northumberland coast. Between them, Typology 6 and

Typology 7 cover most of the highest quality environmental

assets in the rural North East.

Concluding thoughts6.43 It is worth stressing again that these typologies need to be

considered alongside the other elements of this research if

they are to be used and understood properly. But the

research team does instinctively find that the typologies have

successfully captured the different parts that go to make up

the rural region.

Typologies and places6.44The development of the typologies was consciously founded

on a data-led, place blind approach. As such, we have not

tried to create cohesive pictures of particular rural towns.

However, the way that the typologies have developed do

show some patterns related to settlement type:

Post industrial/coalfields rural towns on the

Northumberland coast and in County Durham have

strong concentrations of Typology 4 (Economic cold

spots) at their hearts

Typology 6 (Metro Rural, Best of both worlds) tends to

be remote from towns and conurbations, but sticks

closely to the major road networks

Typology 7 (Sparse rural, low value economy) seems

relatively independent of rural towns and major

conurbations

There is some pattern in the fit of the typologies to City

Region geographies. Rural areas within the City Region

core are primarily a mix of Typologies 1 to 5, while the

outer City Region contains more of Typologies 6 and 7.

This meets the commuting patterns that are central to

understanding the operation of City Regions and their

hinterlands, but it doesnt really provide any new

insights

The places between rural towns are a patchwork of

various typologies for which there seems no clear

pattern. What it does demonstrate, however, is that

relative wealth and opportunity can be found close to

areas of deprivation and need. This reinforces the need

to develop policies and programmes that are more

precisely targeted and which have a sophisticated and

flexible approach to delivery

Future uses for the typologies


36/73


6.45The typologies created in this research are snapshots in

time. The data that underpins them is fixed and shows no

trends. However, in time it may be possible to update the

underlying data sets with new information.

6.46Despite their static nature, the typologies could provide a

useful lens for programme and policy monitoring and

evaluation. For example, understanding in which typology

areas an initiatives beneficiaries live may help to understand

if support is being properly targeted. Likewise, early

reference to the typologies in programme development may

help to identify particular areas of rural need or opportunity.

Such creative, practical use of the typologies should be

encouraged.


37/73


38/73

are available on request from ONS. This data is updated migration estimates using improved NHS data. In any further


39/73


annually from HMRC VAT and PAYE records, Companies

House, Dun & Bradstreet and the ONS business surveys. ,

Data disclosure issues again limit the level of detail that can

be accessed.

7.11Travel flows and patterns7.12As the most comprehensive source of data, the 2001 Census

has been used considerably in creating the Evidence Base.

Where it stands alone as a source is in the field of travel:travel to work flows, distances, types of transport, and home

working. These are particularly important in rural areas to

understand their interactions with urban centres (this is also

a key element in City Region research)

Internal migration7.13This is less a problem, and more an example of innovative

practice. The flows of internal migrants within the UK may

seem intuitively difficult to track. However, NHS data

provides a solution. When people move, they re-register with

a GPs surgery. This provides one way of monitoring

movements but there are a number of issues associated withit such as the time lag between moving and re registering

which is not compulsory.

7.14Following the completion of this research it was brought to

our attention that ONS have an Improving Migration &

Population Statistics programme. This aims to improve

work we would seek to utilise this data to obtain more

accurate migration data.

Emissions7.15As discussed elsewhere in this Working Paper, readily

accessible data does not yet allow for the detailed analysis of

non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions, which are a key

characteristic of agricultural activity. Information is available

from the National Air Emissions Inventory, but not in a form

that allows regional and sub-regional disaggregation.


40/73


41/73


42/73


43/73


44/73


45/73


46/73


47/73


48/73


49/73


50/73


51/73

8.34These questions should all form part of the wider futures

work that is to be undertaken as part of the regions


52/73


preparation for the development of the 2010 Integrated

Regional Strategy.

9 ANNEX A CONSULTEES Other consultees Tom Warburton, Head of Regional Strategy, One North


53/73


Steering Group members Adrian Sherwood, RDPE Manager, One North East

Allan Little, Strategic Economic Advisor, One North East

Anja McCarthy, Strategic Research Specialist Advisor,

One North East

Chris Maxwell, Regional Strategy Senior Specialist, One

North East

Frances Rowe, Rural Policy and Partnerships Manager,One North East

Victoria Catesby, Rural Policy and Partnerships Specialist

Advisor, One North East

John Mooney, GIS Specialist Advisor, NERIP

Jon Carling, Head, NERIP

Kirsten Young, RDPE Senior Specialist, One North East

Louise Kempton, Business Analyst and Policy Senior

Specialist, One North East

Mark Wilson, Transport Manager, One North East

Will Haywood, Economic Analysis Specialist Advisor, One

North East Paul Cowie, PhD student, attached to One North East

g gy

East

Nick Muse, Head of Policy and Strategy, One North East

Sue Shaw, Chair, RuCanne

David Francis, Northumberland Rural Community

Council

David Stewart, Chair, North East Rural Affairs Forum

Yvonne Greenlay, Government Office North East

Richard Baker, Policy and Research Manager, Northern

Way

Lee Pugalis, Head of Strategic Economic Change,

Durham County Council

John Banks, Deputy Team Leader, Durham County

Council

Graham Black, Durham County Council

Chris France, Rural Account Manager, Business Link

Rachel Ford, Business Intelligence Manager, Business

Enterprise NE

John Atkinson, Rural Account Manager, Business Link

Terry Carroll, Newcastle University

Dr Jane Atterton, Newcastle University

Roger Turner, Head of Rural Economies, Commission for

Rural Communities

Philip Craig, Peer Assist, GHK

Angus Collingwood Cameron, Country Landowners

Association


54/73


Peter Jackson, Chair, Northern Rural Network

Keith Lamb, ANEC

Kerry Eaton, Tees Valley Joint Strategy Unit

Ian Brown, Board Member, One North East

Shaun Stuart, Chief Executive, The Enterprise Agency

(Wear Valley and Teesdale)

Tony Williamson, Head of Rural Mainstreaming Policy,

Defra Glyn Bateman, Natural England

Tony Gates, Chief Executive, Northumberland National

Park Authority

Brendan Callaghan, Regional Director, Forestry

Commission

Richard Ellison, Regional Director, NFU

Andy Dean, Head of Regeneration, Northumberland

Council

Rob Strettle, Regeneration Policy Manager,

Northumberland Council

Cameron Scott, Regeneration Office, Northumberland

Council

10 ANNEX B BIBLIOGRAPHY Planning for the Ageing Countryside in Britain andJapan: City-Regions and the Mobility of Older People(Centre for Rural Economy and the Global Urban


55/73


Evidence Base Regional productivity a review of the rural perspective

(Defra, 2003)

Project Management for the development of The NorthEast Rural Estates Framework (One North East, 2007)

State of the Countryside 2008 (Commission for RuralCommunities, 2008)

Economic performance of rural areas inside and outsideof city-regions (Defra, 2006) Productivity in Rural England (Defra, 2005) Rural Worklessness Research Project (Northumberland

Partnership, 2008)

Living Working Countryside The Taylor Review of RuralEconomy and Affordable Housing (CLG, 2008)

Digital Britain (DCMS, 2009) Regional Profile North East (HEFCE, 2007) Spatial Analysis of Economic Flows in North East

England (NERIP 2006) The Rural Development Programme for England (Defra,

2007)

Study to Inform the Mainstreaming of Business Supportin the Rural North East (Centre for Rural Economy, 2006)

(Centre for Rural Economy and the Global Urban

Research Unit, 2008)

North East Regional Image Campaign 2008-2011 (OneNorth East, 2008)

Prosperity and Protection: The Economic Impact ofNational Parks in the Yorkshire and Humber Region(Council for National Parks, 2007)

North East England Greenhouse Gas Emissions Baselinesand Trajectories Study (Sustaine, 2009)

Rural In-migration: a catalyst for economic regeneration(Stockdale and Findlay, 2004)

Identifying Sources on Entrepreneurship and theInformal Economy (ONS, 2005)

North East Regional Spatial Strategy: city regions, theirspatial definition, and the EiP Panel recommendations(Llewelyn Davies Yeang, 2007)

City Regions and Rural Areas in the North East ofEngland (CRE, 2005)

Englands Rural Areas: Steps to release their economicpotential (CRC/Rural Advocate, 2008)

Rural Estate Sustainability Leading by example (Forumfor the Future, 2006)

Market Towns Retail Distinctiveness Report (One NorthEast, 2006)

Counter-urbanisation and Job Creation: EntrepreneurialIn-Migration and Rural Economic Development (Centrefor Rural Economy 2006)

Stockdale, A Findlay, A and Short, D. (2000) Therepopulation of rural Scotland: opportunity and threat,Journal of Rural Studies Volume 16 Issue 2 243-257


56/73


for Rural Economy, 2006)

Mind the Gap: Digital England a rural perspective(Commission for Rural Communities, 2009)

Northumberland Upwards Local Development Strategy2008-2013 (Northumberland Uplands Local ActionGroup, 2008)

Fighting Brands Research Project (One Northeast, 2004) The Economic Value of Protected Landscapes in North

East (SQW, 2004)Futures Paper Mitchell, C (2004) Making Sense of Counterurbanization.

Journal of Rural Studies Vol.20 pp14-34 & State of the

Countryside (2008) Commission for Rural Communities,

Cheltenham

Champion.T, Atkins,D, Coombes, M & Fotherringham,S ,

1998 Urban Exodus, CPRE London Shimasawa, M. (2004) Population ageing, policy reforms

and endogenous growth in Japan: a computableoverlapping generations approach, ESRI DiscussionPaper Series No.96, Economic and Social Research

Institute, Cabinet Office, Tokyo, Japan

Hjorth, D. (2008) Nordic Entrepreneurship Research,Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, Vol. 32, Issue 2,

pp. 313-338

Journal of Rural Studies Volume 16, Issue 2, 243-257

Bosworth, G. (2006) Counter-urbanisation and JobCreation: Entrepreneurial In-Migration and RuralEconomic Development, Centre for Rural EconomyDiscussion Paper Series No. 4

Clark, G. (2005) Cities, Regions, and MetropolitanDevelopment Agencies, Local Economy, Vol. 20, No. 4,404411

Etherington, D. and Jones, M. (2009) 'City-Regions: NewGeographies of Uneven Development and Inequality',Regional Studies,43:2,247- 265

Midgley, J., Ward, N. and Atterton, J. (2005) City Regionsand Rural Areas in the North East of England, Centre forRural Economy Research Report, University of

Newcastle-upon-Tyne

Huggins, R. and Clifton, N. (2009) Competitiveness andCreativity, Centre for International Competitiveness,forthcoming

Bacot, H. and ODell, C. (2006) Establishing Indicators toEvaluate Brownfield Redevelopment, EconomicDevelopment Quarterly, Vol. 20, No. 2, 142-161

Etzkowitz, H. (2006) The triple helix of the HadriansValley economy, The Regional Monitor, North EastAnnual Edition, July/August

Huggins, R. and Izushi, H. (2008) UK CompetitivenessIndex 2008, Centre for International Competitiveness:Cardiff


57/73


Cardiff

Consultation Draft PPS4 - Planning for ProsperousEconomies; CLG 2009

Hindle, R. (2007) Innovation in Small Rural Businesses,in Nesta (ed) Rural Innovation, pp 61-74

Rowe, F. (2007) Innovation in Rural Public Services, inNesta (ed) Rural Innovation, pp 75-87

Hamilton-Pennell, C. (2004) CI for small business: TheCity of Littletons economic gardening program,Competitive Intelligence Magazine, 7(6), 13-15.

Hepworth, M. et al. (2004) The Knowledge Economy inRural England, A Report to Defra.

Rural Economy and Land Use Programme (2009)

Regional rural land use: a time for fresh thinking? Policyand Practice Notes, Note No. 8

Thompson, N. and Ward N. (2005) Rural Areas andRegional Competitiveness, Centre for Rural EconomyResearch Report, p. 28

Defra (2005) Productivity in Rural England, Departmentfor Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, London.


58/73

level and above.

The indices of multiple deprivation are a good starting point.

In addition to the main Index the seven Domains (Income

morphology classes that would help to identify how the

uplands (as a group) compare with various settlement types.


59/73


In addition to the main Index, the seven Domains (Income,

Employment, Health, Education, Barriers and Living

Environment) and the six Sub-Domains that make up theIndices themselves, the underlying indicators are also

available for download.

The DfT 2005 Core Accessibility Indicators provide a number

of measures of accessibility by public transport and walking

to seven service types: primary schools, secondary schools,

further education, GPs, hospitals, food shops and

employment.

ONS recently published 2001 Census based commuting flows

at LSOA level. Although this data is now somewhat dated, it

could be used to provide an indication of the degree to which

(parts of) the Uplands serve a dormitory function.

Data on businesses is available via the Inter-Departmental

Business Register. The lowest geographic level at which this

is available is, however, MSOA. The Annual Business Inquiry

provides some data at LSOA level, but is subject to stringent

confidentiality controls.

ComparatorsSome thought needs to be given to how data relating to the

uplands is to be presented. At an LSOA level, the 2004

Urban / Rural Definition provides a set of settlement

Figure 1: Disadvantaged and Severely

Disadvantaged areas in the context of Administrativeand Statistical geographies


60/73


12 TECHNICAL APPENDIX 2 - METHODOLOGY FORMULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS

for example the distance traveled to work and housing

tenure. To simplify the results the travel to work was

collapsed into two variables; 20km and over and; less than


61/73


Multivariate analysis was developed as a tool in consumer

and market research. The analysis is a method of reducing alarge amount of data down into manageable and

standardized factors which can then be used for further

analysis. It is, therefore, a two stage process. The first stage

involves the selection of a suitable set of variables which are

then reduced into a smaller number of factors.

The second stage of the process involves giving each case (inthis study each case represents a Lower Super Output Area

(LSOA) with the rural North East) a factor score. The factor

scores are then subject to cluster analysis to link LSOAs with

similar characteristics.

Whilst the methodology is mainly used in marketing and

consumer research it has been used in the field of rural

policy and development, i.e. Soares et al (2003)25.

Stage OneThe list of variables contained a number of similar measures

25Soares,J.,Marques,M.&Monteiro,C.(2003)Amultivariatemethodologytouncoverregionaldisparities:AcontributiontoimproveEuropeanUnionand

governmentdecisions.EuropeanJournalofOperationalResearchVol.145pp121135

20km. Similarly with housing tenure, rented from Council

and social rented were combined.From the list of variable supplied the correlation matrix was

used to exclude those variables which did not demonstrate

any correlation with the other variables. The following

variables were therefore discarded:

Change in workplace units

Housing affordability

Social Housing Tenure

Change in JSA claimants

Change in IB Claimants

Total population change

The remaining variables were then tested in a number of

combinations to establish the most effective set. The

following variables were selected to give the best possible

model:

No workplace units

Prop employed in agriculture

Two or more cars per household

Travel to work 20km or more

Travel to work less than 20km

Home workers

Skills level 4/5

Owner occupiers

JSA claimants

Looking at the commonalities for each of the variables (h2)

there are no weak commonalities and three reasonable

commonalities. The remaining commonalities are all strong


62/73


JS c a a ts

Distance to primary school

Distance to GP

Working age pop

IB claimants

The final correlation matrix is shown at the end of this

appendix.

Strength of modelThe Keiser-Meyer-Olkin statistic for the chosen set of

variables was a very respectable 0.781 which when rounded

up gives 0.8. On the Kaiser scale the result is meritorious.

In addition the Bartlett test of sphericity with a figure

4993.15 and an associated probability of P


63/73

TablesPart1

ResultsofFactorAnalysisTable 1 KMO and Bartlett's Test

Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin Measure of Sampling


64/73


Kaiser Meyer Olkin Measure of SamplingAdequacy. .781

Approx. Chi-Square 4993.150

df 78

Bartlett's Test ofSphericity

Sig. .000

Table 2 Rotated Component Matrix(a)

Component

1 2 3 4h

2

No workplace units .109 .015 -.064 .849 0.737Prop employed inagriculture .910 .096 -.165 .120

0.879Two or more carsper household .384 .685 .407 .331

0.892Travel to work 20kmor more .485 .378 .113 .489

0.630Travel to work lessthan 20km -.305 .121 .844 .089

0.828Home workers .790 .334 .076 .379 0.885Skills level 4/5 .202 .740 .223 .449 0.840Owner occupiers -.124 .475 .693 .345 0.840JSA claimants -.157 -.892 .041 .056 0.825Distance to primaryschool .802 .185 -.030 .044

0.680Distance to GP .815 .089 -.037 -.020 0.674

Working age pop .162 -.107 .803 -.243 0.742IB claimants -.168 -.872 -.013 -.008 0.789

Eigenvalue 5.237 2.643 1.304 1.058

% of Variance 40.281 20.328 10.032 8.136

Cumulative % 40.281 60.609 70.640 78.776

Table 3 Communalities

Initial Extraction

No workplace units 1.000 .737


65/73


Prop employed inagriculture 1.000 .878

Two or more carsper household 1.000 .892

Travel to work 20kmor more 1.000 .630

Travel to work lessthan 20km 1.000 .828

Home workers 1.000 .885

Skills level 4/5 1.000 .839

Owner occupiers 1.000 .841

JSA claimants 1.000 .826

Distance to primaryschool 1.000 .680

Distance to GP 1.000 .673

Working age pop 1.000 .743

IB claimants 1.000 .789

Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis.

TablesPart2

ResultsofClusterAnalysisTable 4 Agglomeration Table extract

N f


66/73


No. ofclusters Distance Diff Dist

10 605.76 38.054

9 643.814 38.835

8 682.649 46.355

7 729.004 84.882

6 813.886 137.57

5 951.456 181.502

4 1132.958 214.054

3 1347.012 289.606

2 1636.618 343.382

1 1980

Table 5 Number of Cases in each Cluster

1 42.000

2 19.000

3 119.000

Cluster


67/73


4 153.000

5 100.0006 42.000

7 21.000

Valid 496.000

Missing .000

Table 6 Final Cluster Centres

Cluster

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

REGR factor score1 for analysis 1

-.11993 -.55059 -.49384 -.17323 -.16527 .91762 3.75029


-1.10703 -.46067 .73364 -.83365 .53993 .88483 .20653


1.25609 -.88826 -.74865 -.33097 1.14152 .04681 -.58425


.96104 2.92758 -.12836 -.45365 -.50249 1.03949 -.22447

Table 7 Cluster characteristics

WPUEmpAgri 2+cars 20+km


68/73


2 203.32 1.77% 161.53 129.16 431.37 70.21 230 33.68 78.42 0.9632 1.4105

3 40.8 1.60% 171.55 86.55 427.48 54.82 196.95 19.12 53.36 0.8958 1.6958

4 25.67 1.28% 101.27 58.59 416.14 38.27 85.31 43.99 119.93 0.8706 1.7758

5 31.52 0.94% 227.92 97.00 593.36 58.76 219.67 20.6 54.35 1.02 2.075

6 74.9 6.38% 309.31 192.00 444.05 132.38 343.26 16.67 46.55 1.8095 3.881

7 67 18.20% 265.86 186.86 294.71 184.05 247.24 13.1 35.95 3.8048 9.6143

Ave 47.07 2.49% 176.5 96.82 469.03 63.85 180.45 29.97 79.92 1.1087 2.3212

Working agepop

OwnerOccupier

1 63.57% 1028.71

2 57.44% 766.47

3 57.06% 817.08

4 60.29% 642.14

5 65.50% 1016.16

6 59.64% 995.21

7 61.07% 658.38

Ave 60.71% 827.6


69/73


70/73


71/73


13.2

Figure 5 Figure 6


72/73


Figure 7 Figure 8


73/73


Documents

North East Rural Evidence Base Part 2