North Korea and Iran weapons of mass destruction

8/7/2019 North Korea and Iran weapons of mass destruction

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North Korea Nuclear Programe

North Korea claims to possess nuclear weapons, and it is widely believed tohave a substantial arsenal of chemical weapons (deliverable by artillery). NorthKorea was a member of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty but withdrew in 2003,citing the failure of the United States to fulfill its end of the Agreed Framework, a1994 agreement between the states to limit North Korea's nuclear ambitions.

On October 9, 2006, the North Korean government issued an announcementthat it had successfully conducted a nuclear test for the first time. Both the UnitedStates Geologic Survey and Japanese seismological authorities detected an

earthquake with a preliminary estimated magnitude of 4.2 on the Richter scale inNorth Korea, corroborating some aspects of the North Korean claims.

1. Nuclear weapons

1.1:Background

Korea has been a divided country since 1947. The Korean Warwas foughtfrom June 25, 1950 until a cease. However, since North Korea and South Koreahave still not officially made peace, strictly speaking, the war has yet to be endedofficially.

Tensions between North and South have run high on numerous occasionssince 1953. The deployment of the U.S. Army's Second Infantry Division on theKorean peninsula and the American military presence at the Korean DemilitarizedZone are publicly regarded by North Korea as an occupying army. In several areas,North Korean and American/South Korean forces operate in extreme proximity tothe border, adding to tension. This tension led to the border clash in 1976, whichhas become known as the Axe Murder Incident.

The U.S. has rejected recent North Korean calls for bilateral talksconcerning a non-aggression pact, stating that only six-party talks that also includethe People's Republic of China, Russia, Japan, and South Korea are acceptable.The American stance is that North Korea has violated prior bilateral agreements,thus such forums lack accountability. Conversely, North Korea refuses to speak in

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the context of six-party talks, stating that it will only accept bilateral talks with theUnited States. This has led to a diplomatic stalemate.

On November 19, 2006 North Koreas Minju Joson newspaper accusedSouth Korea of building up arms in order to attack the country: The South Koreanmilitary is openly clamoring that the development and introduction of newweapons are to target the North. Pyongyang accused South Korea of conspiringwith the United States to attack the isolated and impoverished state, an accusationmade frequently by the North and routinely denied by the U.S.

1.2:Plutonium

Concern focuses around two reactors at the Yongbyon Nuclear ScientificResearch Center, both of them small power stations using Magnox techniques. The

smaller (5MWe) was completed in 1986 and has since produced possibly 8,000spent fuel elements. Construction of the larger plant (50MWe) commenced in 1984but in 2003 was still incomplete. This larger plant is based on the declassifiedblueprints of the Calder Hall power reactors used to produce plutonium for the UKnuclear weapons program. The smaller plant produces enough material to buildone new bomb per year; if completed, the larger plant could produce enough for 10each year. It has also been suggested that small amounts of plutonium could havebeen produced in a Russian-supplied IRT-2000 heavy-water moderated researchreactor completed in 1967, but there are no recorded safeguards violations withrespect to this plant.

On March 12, 1993, North Korea said that it planned to withdraw from theNuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and refused to allow inspectors access to itsnuclear sites. By 1994, the United States believed that North Korea had enoughreprocessed plutonium to produce about 10 bombs with the amount of plutoniumincreasing. Faced with diplomatic pressure and the threat of American military airstrikes against the reactor, North Korea agreed to dismantle its plutonium programas part of the Agreed Framework in which South Korea and the United Stateswould provide North Korea with light water reactors and fuel oil until those

reactors could be completed. Because the light water reactors would requireenriched uranium to be imported from outside North Korea, the amount of reactorfuel and waste could be more easily tracked, making it more difficult to divertnuclear waste to be reprocessed into plutonium. However, with bureaucratic red-tapes and political obstacles from the North Korea, KEDO,established to advancethe implementation of "Agreed Framework", had failed to build the promised lightwater reactors and in late 2002, North Korea returned to using their old reactors.

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1.3:Enriched uranium

With the abandonment of its plutonium program, North Korea began anenriched uranium program. Pakistan, through Abdul Qadeer Khan, supplied keytechnology and information to North Korea in exchange for missile technologyaround 1997, according to U.S. intelligence officials.

This program was publicized in October 2002 when the United States askedNorth Korean officials about the program,. Although the Agreed Frameworkspecifically prohibited then-existing plutonium programs, not uranium, the U.S.argued North Korea violated the "spirit" of the agreement. In December 2002, theUnited States terminated the 1994 Agreed Framework, suspending fuel oilshipments.

North Korea responded by announcing plans to reactivate a dormant nuclearfuel processing program and power plant north of Pyongyang. North Korea soonthereafter expelled U.N. inspectors and withdrew from the Non-ProliferationTreaty.

1.4:North Korean-American relations

Even though U.S. President George W. Bush had named North Korea as partof an "Axis of Evil" following the September 11, 2001 attacks, U.S. officials statedthat the United States was not planning any immediate military action.

According to John Feffer, co-director of Foreign Policy in Focus, "Theprimary problem is that the current U.S. administration fundamentally doesntwant an agreement with North Korea. The Bush administration considers the 1994Agreed Framework to have been a flawed agreement. It doesnt want to be saddledwith a similar agreement, for if it did sign one, it would then be open to charges of"appeasing" Pyongyang. American ire at North Korea is further inflammed byallegations of state sponsored drug smuggling, money laundering, and wide scalecounterfeiting. The Vice President has summed up the approach as: "We dont

negotiate with evil, we defeat evil."

Diplomatic efforts at resolving the North Korean situation are complicatedby the different goals and interests of the nations of the region. While none of theparties desire a North Korea with nuclear weapons, Japan and South Korea arevery concerned about North Korean counter strikes in case of military actionagainst North Korea. The People's Republic of China and South Korea are also

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Gallucci to start a new round of negotiations. After 89 days, NorthKorea announces it has suspended its withdrawal. (The NPT requiresthree months notice before a country can withdraw.)

In December, IAEA Director-General Blix announces that the agencycan no longer provide "any meaningful assurances" that North Koreais not producing nuclear weapons.

12 October, 1994: the United States and North Korea signed the"Agreed Framework": North Korea agreed to freeze its plutoniumproduction program in exchange for fuel oil, economic cooperation,and the construction of two modern light-water nuclear power plants.Eventually, North Korea's existing nuclear facilities were to bedismantled, and the spent reactor fuel taken out of the country.

26 October, 1994: IAEA Chairman Hans Blix tells the British Houseof Commons Foreign Affairs Committee the IAEA is "not very

happy" with the Agreed Frameworkbecause it gives North Korea toomuch time to begin complying with the inspections regime.

18 March, 1996: Hans Blix tells the IAEA's Board of GovernorsNorth Korea has still not made its initial declaration of the amount ofplutonium they possess, as required under the Agreed Framework, andwarned that without the declaration IAEA would lose the ability toverify North Korea was not using its plutonium to develop weapons.

October 1997: spent nuclear fuel rods were encased in steelcontainers, under IAEA inspection.

31 August, 1998: North Korea launched a modified Taepodong-1

missile in a launch attempt of its Kwangmyngsng satellite. USMilitary analysts suspect satellite launch is a ruse for the testing of anICBM. This missile flew overJapan causing the Japanese governmentto retract 1 billion in aid for two civilian light-water reactors.

1.5.2: 2002

7 August: "First Concrete" pouring at the construction site of thelight-water nuclear power plants being built by the Korean Peninsula

Energy Development Organization under the 1994 AgreedFramework. Construction of both reactors was many years behind theagreement's target completion date of 2003.

3-5 October: On a visit to the North Korean capital Pyongyang, USAssistant Secretary of State James Kelly presses the North onsuspicions that it is continuing to pursue a nuclear energy and missiles

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programme. Mr Kelly says he has evidence of a secret uranium-enriching programme carried out in defiance of the 1994 AgreedFramework. Under this deal, North Korea agreed to forsake nuclearambitions in return for the construction of two safer light waternuclear power reactors and oil shipments from the US.

16 October: The US announces that North Korea admitted in theirtalks to a secret nuclear arms programme.

17 October: Initially the North appears conciliatory. Leader KimJong-il says he will allow international weapons inspectors to checkthat nuclear facilities are out of use.

20 October: North-South Korea talks in Pyongyang are undermined

by the North's nuclear programme "admission". US Secretary of StateColin Powell says further US aid to North Korea is now in doubt. TheNorth adopts a mercurial stance, at one moment defiantly defendingits "right" to weapons development and at the next offering to haltnuclear programmes in return for aid and the signing of a "non-aggression" pact with the US. It argues that the US has not kept to itsside of the Agreed Framework, as the construction of the light waterreactors - due to be completed in 2003 - is now years behind schedule.

14 November: US President George W Bush declares November oil

shipments to the North will be the last if the North does not agree toput a halt to its weapons ambitions.

18 November: Confusion clouds a statement by North Korea in whichit initially appears to acknowledge having nuclear weapons. A keyKorean phrase understood to mean the North does have nuclearweapons could have been mistaken for the phrase "entitled to have",Seoul says.

27 November: The North accuses the US of deliberately

misinterpreting its contested statement, twisting an assertion of its"right" to possess weapons into an "admission" of possession.

4 December: The North rejects a call to open its nuclear facilities toinspection.

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11 December: North Korean-made Scud missiles are found aboard aship bound for Yemen. The US illegally detains the ship, but is laterforced to allow the ship to go, conceding that neither country hasbroken any law.

12 December: The North pledges to reactivate nuclear facilities forenergy generation, saying the Americans' decision to halt oilshipments leaves it with no choice. It exposes the US for wrecking the1994 pact.

13 December: North Korea asks the UN's International AtomicEnergy Agency (IAEA) to remove seals and surveillance equipment -the IAEA's "eyes and ears" on the North's nuclear status - from itsYongbyon power plant.

22 December: The North begins removing monitoring devices fromthe Yongbyon plant.

24 December: North Korea begins repairs at the Yongbyon plant.North-South Korea talks over reopening road and rail border links,which have been struggling on despite the increased tension, finallystall.

25 December: It emerges that North Korea had begun shipping fuel

rods to the Yongbyon plant which could be used to produceplutonium.

26 December: The IAEA expresses concern in the light of UNconfirmation that 1,000 fuel rods have been moved to the Yongbyonreactor.

27 December: North Korea says it is expelling the two IAEA nuclearinspectors from the country. It also says it is planning to reopen areprocessing plant, which could start producing weapons grade

plutonium within months.

1.5.3: 2003

2 January: South Korea asks China to use its influence with NorthKorea to try to reduce tension over the nuclear issue, and two days

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later Russia offers to press Pyongyang to abandon its nuclearprogramme.

6 January: The IAEA passes a resolution demanding that NorthKorea readmit UN inspectors and abandon its secret nuclear weaponsprogramme "within weeks", or face possible action by the UNSecurity Council.

7 January: The US says it is "willing to talk to North Korea abouthow it meets its obligations to the international community". But it"will not provide quid pro quos to North Korea to live up to itsexisting obligations".

9 January: North Korea agrees to hold cabinet-level talks with South

Korea on 21 January.

10 January: North Korea announces it will withdraw from theNuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

24 January: Cabinet-level talks between North and South Korea endwithout making progress. South Korean President-elect Roh Moo-hyun proposes face-to-face meeting with Kim Jong-il.

28 January: In his annual State of the Union address, President Bush

alleges North Korea is "an oppressive regime [whose] people live infear and starvation". He accuses North Korea of deception over itsnuclear ambitions and says "America and the world will not beblackmailed".

29 January: North Korea says Mr Bush's speech is an "undisguiseddeclaration of aggression to topple the DPRK system" and dubs him a"shameless charlatan". At the same time, however, it reiterates itsdemand for bilateral talks on a non-aggression pact.

31 January: Unnamed American officials are quoted as saying thatspy satellites have tracked movement at the Yongbyon plantthroughout January, prompting fears that North Korea is trying toreprocess plutonium for nuclear bombs.

White House spokesman Ari Fleischer delivers a stern warning thatNorth Korea must not take "yet another provocative action... intendedto intimidate and blackmail the international community".

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4 February: The United States says it is considering new militarydeployments in the Pacific Ocean to back up its forces in SouthKorea, as a deterrent against any North Korean aggression, in theevent that the US unleashes aggression on Iraq.

5 February: North Korea says it has reactivated its nuclear facilitiesand their operations are now going ahead "on a normal footing".

6 February: North Korea warns the United States that any decision tobuild up its troops in the region could lead the North to make a pre-emptive attack on American forces.

12 February: The IAEA finds North Korea in breach of nuclearsafeguards and refers the matter to the UN security council.

16 February: Kim Jong-il celebrates his 61st birthday, but statemedia warns North Korean citizens to be on "high alert".

17 February: The US and South Korea announce that they will holdjoint military exercises in March.

24 February: North Korea fires a missile into the sea between SouthKorea and Japan.

25 February: Roh Moo-hyun sworn in as South Korean president.

2 March: Four North Korean fighter jets intercept a USreconnaissance plane in international air space and shadow it for 22minutes.

10 March: North Korea fires a second missile into the sea betweenSouth Korea and Japan in as many weeks.

22 March: As a blistering bombing campaign pounds the Iraqi

capital, and South Korean and US forces perform military exerciseson its doorstep, a jumpy North denounces their "confrontationalposture" and calls off talks with the South.

1 April: The US announces that "stealth" fighters sent to South Koreafor a training exercise are to stay on once the exercises end.

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7 April: Ministerial talks between North and South Korea arecancelled after Pyongyang fails to confirm they would take place.

9 April: The United Nations Security Council expresses concernabout North Korea's nuclear programme, but fails to condemnPyongyang for pulling out of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty.

12 April: In a surprise move, North Korea signals it may be ready toend its insistence on direct talks with the US, announcing that "if theUS is ready to make a bold switchover in its Korea policy for asettlement of the nuclear issue, [North Korea] will not stick to anyparticular dialogue format".

18 April: North Korea announces that it has started reprocessing its

spent fuel rods. The statement is later amended to read thatPyongyang has been "successfully going forward to reprocess" therods.

23 April: Talks begin in Beijing between the US and North Korea,hosted by China. The talks are led by the US Assistant Secretary ofState for East Asian affairs, James Kelly, and the deputy directorgeneral of North Korea's American Affairs Bureau, Li Gun.

24 April: American officials say Pyongyang has told them that it now

has nuclear weapons, after the first direct talks for months between theUS and North Korea in Beijing end a day early.

25 April: Talks end amid mutual recrimination, after the US saysNorth Korea had made its first admission that it possessed nuclearweapons.

28 April: US Secretary of State Colin Powell says North Korea madean offer to US officials, during the talks in Beijing, to scrap its nuclearprogramme in exchange for major concessions from the United States.

He does not specify what those concessions are, but reports say thatPyongyang wants normalised relations with the US and economicassistance. Mr Powell says Washington is studying the offer.

5 May: North Korea demands the US respond to what it terms the"bold proposal" it made during the Beijing talks.

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12 May: North Korea says it is scrapping a 1992 agreement with theSouth to keep the peninsula free from nuclear weapons - Pyongyang'slast remaining international agreement on non-proliferation.

15 May: South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun meets US PresidentGeorge W Bush in Washington for talks on how to handle NorthKorea's nuclear ambitions.

2 June: A visiting delegation of US congressmen led by Curt Weldonsays North Korean officials admitted the country had nuclear weaponshad "just about completed" reprocessing 8,000 spent fuel rods whichwould allow it to build more.

9 June: North Korea says publicly that it will build a nuclear

deterrent, "unless the US gives up its hostile policy".

13 June: South Korea's Yonhap news agency says North Koreanofficials told the US on 30 June that it had completed reprocessing thefuel rods.

18 June: North Korea says it will "put further spurs to increasing itsnuclear deterrent force for self-defence".

9 July: South Korea's spy agency says North Korea has started

reprocessing a "small number" of the 8,000 spent nuclear fuel rods atYongbyon.

1 August: North Korea agrees to six-way talks on its nuclearprogramme, South Korea confirms. The US, Japan, China and Russiawill also be involved.

27-29 August: Six-nation talks in Beijing on North Korea's nuclearprogramme. The meeting fails to bridge the gap between Washingtonand Pyongyang. Delegates agree to meet again.

2 October: North Korea announces publicly it has reprocessed thespent fuel rods.

16 October: North Korea says it will "physically display" its nucleardeterrent.

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30 October: North Korea agrees to resume talks on the nuclear crisis,after saying it is prepared to consider the US offer of a securityguarantee in return for ending its nuclear programme.

21 November: Kedo, the international consortium formed to build'tamper-proof' nuclear power plants in North Korea, decides tosuspend the project.

9 December: North Korea offers to "freeze" its nuclear programme inreturn for a list of concessions from the US. It says that unlessWashington agrees, it will not take part in further talks. The USrejects North Korea's offer. President George W Bush saysPyongyang must dismantle the programme altogether.

27 December: North Korea says it will take part in a new round ofsix-party talks on its nuclear programme in early 2004.

1.5.4: 2004

2 January: South Korea confirms that the North has agreed to allow agroup of US experts, including a top nuclear scientist, visit Yongbyonnuclear facility.

10 January: The unofficial US team visits what the North calls its

"nuclear deterrent" facility at Yongbyon.

22 January: US nuclear scientist Siegfried Heckertells Congress thatthe delegates visiting Yongbyon were shown what appeared to beweapons-grade plutonium, but he did not see any evidence of anuclear bomb.

3 February: North Korea reports that the next round of six-party talkson the nuclear crisis will be held on 25 February.

25 February: Second round of six nation talks end withoutbreakthrough in Beijing.

23 May: The UN atomic agency is reported to be investigatingallegations that North Korea secretly sent uranium to Libya whenTripoli was trying to develop nuclear weapons.

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23 June: Third round of six nation talks held in Beijing, with the USmaking a new offer to allow North Korea fuel aid if it freezes thendismantles its nuclear programmes.

2 July: US Secretary of State Colin Powell meets the North KoreanForeign Minister, Paek Nam-sun, in the highest-level talks betweenthe two countries since the crisis erupted.

24 July: North Korea rejects US suggestions that it follow Libya'slead and give up its nuclear ambitions, calling the US proposal a"daydream".

3 August: North Korea is in the process of developing a new missilesystem for ships or submarines, according to a report in Jane's

Defence Weekly.

16 August: North Korea says it will not attend a working mujligiljhn

23 August: North Korea describes US President George W Bush asan "imbecile" and a "tyrant that puts Hitler in the shade", in responseto comments President Bush made describing the North's Kim Jong-ilas a "tyrant".

28 September: North Korea says it has turned plutonium from 8,000

spent fuel rods into nuclear weapons. Speaking at the UN GeneralAssembly, Vice Foreign Minister Choe Su-hon said the weapons wereneeded for "self-defence" against "US nuclear threat".

1.5.5: 2005

14 January: North Korea says it is willing to restart stalled talks onits nuclear programme, according to the official KCNA news agency.The statement says North Korea "would not stand against the US butrespect and treat it as a friend unless the latter slanders the former's

system and interferes in its internal affairs".

19 January: Condoleezza Rice, President George W Bush's nomineeas secretary of state, identifies North Korea as one of six "outposts oftyranny" where the US must help bring freedom.

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10 February: North Korea says it is suspending its participation inthe talks over its nuclear programme for an "indefinite period",blaming the Bush administration's intention to "antagonise, isolate andstifle it at any cost". The statement also repeats North Korea'sassertion to have built nuclear weapons for self-defence.

18 April: South Korea says North Korea has shut down its Yongbyonreactor, a move which could allow it to extract more fuel for nuclearweapons.

1 May: North Korea fires a short-range missile into the Sea of Japan,on the eve of a meeting of members of the international Non-Proliferation Treaty.

11 May: North Korea says it has completed extraction of spent fuelrods from Yongbyon, as part of plans to "increase its nuclear arsenal".

16 May: North and South Korea hold their first talks in 10 months,with the North seeking fertiliser for its troubled agriculture sector.

25 May: The US suspends efforts to recover the remains of missingUS servicemen in North Korea, saying restrictions placed on its workwere too great.

7 June: China's envoy to the UN says he expects North Korea torejoin the six-nation talks "in the next few weeks".

22 June: North Korea requests more food aid from the South duringministerial talks in Seoul, the first for a year.

9 July: North Korea says it will rejoin nuclear talks, as US Secretaryof State Condoleezza Rice begins a tour of the region.

12 July: South Korea offers the North huge amounts of electricity as

an incentive to end its nuclear weapons programme.

25 July: Fourth round of six-nation talks begins in Beijing.

7 August: The talks reach deadlock and a recess is called.

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13 September: Talks resume, but a new North Korean request to bebuilt a light water reactor prompts warnings of a "standoff" betweenthe parties.

19 September: In what is initially hailed as an historic jointstatement, North Korea agrees to give up all its nuclear activities andrejoin the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, while the US says it hadno intention of attacking.

20 September: North Korea says it will not scrap its nuclearprogramme until it is given a civilian nuclear reactor, undermining thejoint statement and throwing further talks into doubt.

7 December: A senior US diplomat brands North Korea a "criminal

regime" involved in arms sales, drug trafficking and currency forgery.

20 December: North Korea says it intends to resume building nuclearreactors, because the US had pulled out of a key deal to build it twonew reactors.

1.5.6: 2006

12 April: A two-day meeting aimed at persuading North Korea toreturn to talks on its nuclear programme fails to resolve the deadlock.

26 June: A report by the Institute for Science and InternationalSecurity estimates that current North Korea plutonium stockplies issufficient for four to thirteen nuclear weapons.

3 July: Washington dismisses a threat by North Korea that it willlaunch a nuclear strike against the US in the event of an Americanattack, as a White House spokesman described the threat as "deeplyhypothetical".

4 July: North Korea test-fires at least six missiles, including a long-range Taepodong-2, despite repeated warnings from the internationalcommunity.

5 July: North Korea test-fires a seventh missile, despite internationalcondemnation of its earlier launches.

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6 July: North Korea announces it would continue to launch missiles,as well as "stronger steps", if international countries were to applyadditional pressure as a result of the latest missile launches, claimingit to be their sovereign right to carry out these tests. A US televisionnetwork also reports that they have quoted intelligence sources insaying that North Korea is readying anotherTaepodong-2 long-rangemissile for launch.

3 October: North Korea announces plans to test a nuclear weapon inthe future, blaming "hostile US policy." Their full text can be readhere

5 October: A US envoy directly threatens North Korea as to theupcoming test, stating "It (North Korea) can have a future or it canhave these (nuclear) weapons, it cannot have them both." The envoy

also mentions that any attempt to test a nuclear device would be seenas a "highly provocative act."

6 October: The United Nations Security Council issues a statementdeclaring, "The Security Council urges the DPRK not to undertakesuch a test and to refrain from any action that might aggravatetension, to work on the resolution of non-proliferation concerns and

to facilitate a peaceful and comprehensive solution through political

and diplomatic efforts. Later in the day, there are unconfirmed reportsof the North Korean government successfully testing a nuclear bomb."

9 October: North Korea announces that it has performed its first-evernuclear weapon test. The country's official Korean Central NewsAgency said the test was performed successfully and there was noradioactive leakage from the site. South Korea's Yonhap news agencysaid the test was conducted at 10:36 a.m. (1:36 a.m. GMT) in Hwaderinear Kilju city, citing defense officials. The USGS detected anearthquake with a preliminary estimated magnitude of 4.2 at41.311N, 129.114E. The USGS coordinate indicates that the

location in much north of Hwaderi, near the upper stream of Oran-chon, 17km NNW of Punggye-Yok, according to analysts reports.

10 October: Some western scientists had doubts as to whether thenuclear weapon test that took place on 9 October 2006 was in factsuccessful. The scientists cite that the measurements recorded onlyshowed an explosion equivalent to 500 metric tons of TNT, as

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compared to the 1998 nuclear tests that India and Pakistan conductedwhich were from between 24 - 50 times more powerful. This couldindicate that the test resulted in a fizzle.

14 October: The United Nations Security Council passed a resolutionimposing sanctions on North Korea for its announced nuclear test on 9October2006 that include steps to hit the North Korea's nuclear andmissile programs as well as keeping luxury goods away from itsleaders, for example French wines and spirits or jet skis. However, thesanctions do not have the full support of China and Russia.

North Korea is widely believed to possess a substantial arsenal of chemicalweapons. It reportedly acquired the technology necessary to produce tabun andmustard gas as early as the 1950s, and now possesses a full arsenal ofnerve agents

and other advanced varieties, and has developed the means to launch them inartillery shells.[citation needed] North Korea has a large artillery arsenal within range ofSeoul, South Korea's capital, and a chemical attack could cause a very largenumber of casualties. North Korea has stated that this arsenal is required asdeterrent from invasion.

North Korea has expended considerable resources on equipping its armywith chemical-protection equipment.

North Korea acceded to the Biological Weapons Convention in 1987, the

Geneva Protocol on January 4, 1989, but has not signed the Chemical WeaponsConvention.

2.Delivery systems

North Korea's ability to deliver weapons of mass destruction to ahypothetical target is somewhat limited by its missile technology. As of 2005,North Korea's total range with its No Dong missiles is only 1,300 km, enough toreach South Korea, Japan, and parts of Russia and China, but not to the United

States or Europe. It is not known if this missile is actually capable of carrying thenuclear weapons North Korea has so far developed. BM-25 is a North Koreandesigned long-range ballistic missile with range capabilities of up to 1,550 miles(2493km), and potential of carrying a nuclear warhead. They have also developedthe Taepodong-1 missile, which has a range of 2,000 km, but it is not yet in fulldeployment. With the development of the Taepodong-2 missile, with an expectedrange of 5,000-6,000 km, North Korea could hypothetically deliver a warhead to

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almost all countries in Southeast Asia, and parts of Alaska or the continentalUnited States. Such targets may include Los Angeles, Seattle, San Fransisco, andother cities on the west coast. FormerCIA directorGeorge Tenet has claimed that,with a light payload, Taepodong-2 could reach western parts ofContinental UnitedStates, though with low accuracy.

To combat this potential threat to the region, various talks were held,including the Three-party talks, Four-Party talks, the Six-party talks in 2003 andnow the Ten-party talks in 2006.

On June 19 2006 there were news reports of an approaching test of a missilewith the potential to target much of East Asia and across the Pacific to thecontinental United States. Some reports suggested that a satellite launch is beingprepared rather than a missile test. The rocket launch site was reported as the No-

Dong facility on the Musu-dan promontory in the Sea of Japan. Satellite navigationtools such as Google Earth reveal an approximately 50m-long assembly building at40.65918056 N 129.6591806 E (4039'33.05" N, 12939'33.05" E), with nearbylaunch, control and engine test facilities. On 5 July 2006 (local time), North Koreaconducted multiple missile launch tests. Several short range missiles and a long-range Taepodong-2 ICBM were fired despite international pressure to cancel thelaunch. The long range missile failed and fell into the Sea of Japan just 45 secondsafter launch. The Japanese newspaperSankei Shimbun reported that the long rangemissile may have been aimed at Hawaii. Washington denies this claim. Theybelieve it was for international attention and propaganda purposes due to the

launch date (American Independence Day). While improving the missile defensesystem, President George W. Bush insists that diplomacy is key but a militarystrike (or any thing else) cannot be ruled out. Days later, North Korean leader KimJong-il threatened a nuclear war if a preemptive strike is launched and warned thatany sanctions against North Korea will be taken as a "declaration of war."

The Six-party talks

The Six-party talks are a series of meetings with six participating states -the People's Republic of China, the Republic of Korea (South Korea), theDemocratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea), the United States ofAmerica, the Russian Federation and Japan. These talks were a result ofNorth Korea withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)in 2003. The aim of these talks is to find a peaceful resolution to the security

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concerns raised by the North Korean nuclear weapons program. After fiverounds of talks, little progress has been made.

1. Content of the six-party talks

The main points of contention are:

1. Security guarantee - this issue has been raised by North Koreasince the Bush administration (2001 - Present) took office. North Koreaperceives the Bush Administration as being hostile and planning tooverthrow the North Korean government by force. This concern waselevated following the 2002 overthrow of the Taliban in Afghanistan.2. The construction oflight water reactors - the 1994 AgreedFramework(including KEDO) stated that the members ofKEDO would

agree to build several light-water reactors in return for North Korea'scessation of its nuclear program. This agreement broke down after bothsides defaulted, especially since 2000.3. 'Peaceful' use of nuclear energy - whilst the NPT allows statesthe right to use nuclear energy for civilian purposes, this is thought to havebeen used by North Korea as a cover for their nuclear weapons program.4. Diplomatic relations - North Korea wants normalization ofdiplomatic relations as part of the bargain for giving up its nuclearweapons program. The US has at times disagreed and at times agreed tothis condition, providing North Korea irreversibly and verifiably disarms

its nuclear weapons program.5. Financial restrictions / Trade normalization - The US hasplaced heavy financial sanctions on North Korea for what they see as anuncooperative attitude and unwillingness to dismantle its nuclear weaponsprogram.6. 'Verifiable' and 'Irreversible' disarmament - Members of thesix-party talks have disagreed on this. Japan and the US have demandedthat North Korea completely dismantle its nuclear program so that it maynever be restarted, and that it can be verified by the six members of the

talks before aid is given. South Korea, China and Russia have agreed on amilder, step-by-step solution which involves the members of the six-partytalks giving a certain reward (e.g. aid) in return for each step of nucleardisarmament. North Korea has wanted the US to concede some of theconditions first before it will take any action in disarming their weaponsprogram, which they see as the only guarantee to prevent a US attack ontheir soil.

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4. However, the states still respect North Korea's right to peacefuluse of nuclear energy as stated under the NPT

5. The issue of the light-water reactors will be discussed at asuitable time later

6. US and the South Korea to formally declare that they have nonuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula

7. US will practice non-aggression towards North Korea8. US will work to normalize ties with North Korea and by

respecting each other's sovereignty, right to co-exist peacefully.9. Japan will normalize relations with North Korea through the

Pyongyang Statement by settling historical disputes.10. Promising North Korea it will receive economic cooperation

and aid with energy through strengthening bilateral/multilateraleconomic cooperation in energy, trade and investment. The five

other members will serve as guarantors to this condition11. South Korea will channel two million kiloWatts of power to

North Korea.12. The Korean Peninsula peace treaty to be negotiated separately.13. 'Words for words'; 'actions for actions' principle to be observed,

stressing 'mutually coordinated measures'. Agreement to hold fifth round of talks in early November, 2005.

5th round, 1st phase (9 Nov11 Nov2005) Objectives

achieved Joint Statement issued with six points. This is essentially the same as the previousround's statements, except for:

Modifying the 'words for words' and 'actions for actions' principle to'commitment for commitment, action for action' principle.

No agreement on when the next talks will be held, though March 2006 lookedlikely at the time.

5th round, 2nd phase (likely 18 Dec2006 ) Objectivesachieved

In April 2006, North Korea offered to resume talks if the USreleases recently frozen North Korean financial assets held in a bankin Macau.

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1. The US treats the nuclear and financial issues as separate;North Korea does not.

North Korea then announced on October 3, 2006, that it wasgoing to test its first nuclear weapon regardless of the world situation,blaming 'hostile US policy' as the reason for the need for such adeterrent. However, it pledged a no-first-strike policy and to nucleardisarmament only when there is worldwide elimination of suchnuclear weapons. For North Korea's full text, read this.

On October 9, 2006, North Korea announced a successfulnuclear test, verified by the US on October 11.

In response, the United Nations Security Council passedResolution 1718 unanimously condemning North Korea, as well aspassing Chapter VII, Article 41. Sanctions ranged from the economic

to the trade of military units, WMD-related parts and technologytransfer, and a ban on certain luxury goods. Both the People'sRepublic of China and the Russian Federation were quick to stressthat these were not military-enforceable sanctions. The Resolutionalso gave the right to other nations to inspect any North Koreanvessel's cargo, although the People's Republic of China has heldreservations about this move, saying it wanted to avoid any militaryconfrontation with North Korea's navy.

On 31 October 2006, the Chinese government announcedthat six-party talks would resume. U.S. negotiator Christopher Hilllater stated that the resumption could happen in the next month andthat North Korea had not set preconditions for the talks. The deadlockwas broken by what BBC News called "frantic behind-the-scenesnegotiations" by Beijing. However, Japan's Foreign MinisterTaro Asostated that his country was not willing to return to the six-party talksuntil North Korea had renounced nuclear weapons.

On 5 December 2006, the Russian envoy AlexanderAlexeyev said that the talks were unlikely to resume before 2007owing to the slow progress towards the talks and the fact that

Christmas was coming up soon. On 10 December, it became apparent that talks would

resume on 18 December2006.

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Iran and Nuclear WeaponsAs of 2006, Iran is not known to possess weapons of mass destruction and

has signed treaties repudiating possession of them, including the BiologicalWeapons Convention, the Chemical Weapons Convention, and the NuclearNon-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). A number of countries, including the U.S.,France, Germany, Russia and the United Kingdom, have accused Iran of aclandestine intention to develop nuclear weapons. On 31 July 2006, theUnited Nations Security Council passed a resolution demanding Iransuspend its nuclear activities.

1.Biological weapons

Iran ratified the Biological Weapons Convention on August 22, 1973. Iran hasadvanced biology and genetic engineering research programmes supporting an industrythat produces world class vaccines for both domestic use and export. The dual use natureof these facilities mean that Iran, like any country with advanced biological researchprogrammes, could easily produce biological warfare agents.

A 2005 report from the United States Department of State claimed that Iran beganwork on offensive biological weapons during the Iran-Iraq War, and that their largelegitimate biotechnological and biomedical industry "could easily hide pilot to industrial-

scale production capabilities for a potential BW programme, and could maskprocurement of BW-related process equipment". The report further said that "availableinformation about Iranian activities indicates a maturing offensive programme with arapidly evolving capability that may soon include the ability to deliver these weapons bya variety of means".

According to The Nuclear Threat Initiative, Iran is known to possess cultures ofthe many biological agents for legitimate scientific purposes which have beenweaponised by other nations in the past, or could theoretically be weaponised, thoughthey do not allege that Iran has attempted to weaponise them, Iran possesses sufficient

biological facilities to potentially do so.

2. Chemical weapons

Iran is one of the few countries in the world that has experienced chemical warfare(CW) on the battlefield, suffering tens of thousands of casualties, both civilian andmilitary, in chemical attacks during the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War. As a result Iran has

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On December 18, 2003, Iran signed an additional protocol that allows IAEAinspectors access to individuals, documentation relating to procurement, dual useequipment, certain military-owned workshops, and research and development locations.

On May 12, 2006, claims that highly enriched uranium (well over the 3.5%enriched level) was reported to have been found "at a site where Iran has denied suchsensitive atomic work", appeared. "They have found particles of highly enriched uranium[HEU], but it is not clear if this is contamination from centrifuges that had beenpreviously found [from imported material] or something new," said one diplomat close tothe UN International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). These reports have not yet beenofficially confirmed by the IAEA (as of June 1, 2006).. [Note: reader discretion isadvised since the above claims come from unverifiable sources and as such should betaken with the appropriate amount of scepticism.]

On 31 July 2006, the United Nations Security Council passed a resolutiondemanding that Iran suspend its uranium enrichment activities.

In late 2006, "New traces of plutonium and enriched uranium potential materialfor atomic warheads have been found [by the IAEA] in a nuclear waste facility inIran." However, "A senior U.N. official who was familiar with the report cautionedagainst reading too much into the findings of traces of highly enriched uranium andplutonium, saying Iran had explained both and they could plausibly be classified asbyproducts of peaceful nuclear activities. The official, who spoke on condition ofanonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the report publicly, said that while

the uranium traces were enriched to a higher level than needed to generate power, theywere below weapons-grade."

3.2: The Iranian stance

Iran states the purpose of its nuclear programme is the generation of power andthat any other use would be a violation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, of whichit is a signatory (but has threatened to withdraw from), as well as being against Iranianreligious principles. Iran claims that nuclear power is necessary for a booming populationand rapidly industrialising nation. It points to the fact that Iran's population has more thandoubled in 20 years, the country regularly imports gasoline and electricity, and thatburning fossil fuel in large amounts harms Iran's environment drastically. Additionally,Iran questions why it shouldn't be allowed to diversify its sources of energy, especiallywhen there are fears of its oil fields eventually being depleted. It continues to argue thatits valuable oil should be used for high value products and export, not simple electricitygeneration. Furthermore, Iran argues that nuclear power makes fairly good economic

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sense. Building reactors is expensive, but subsequent operating costs are low and stable,and increasingly competitive as fossil-fuel prices rise. Iran also raises funding questions,claiming that developing the excess capacity in its oil industry would cost it $40 billion,let alone pay for the power plants. Harnessing nuclear power costs a fraction of this,considering Iran has abundant supplies of accessible uranium ore .

Iran has a legal right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes under the NPT. Iran,and many other developing nations who are signatories to the NPT, believe the Westernposition to be hypocritical, claiming that the NPT's original purpose was universalnuclear disarmament. Iran also compares its treatment as a signatory to the NPT withthree nations that have not ratified the NPT. Each of these nations developed anindigenous nuclear weapons capability: Israel by 1968, India by 1974, and Pakistan by1998.

On December 14, 2001, Iran's former president and an Islamic cleric, AkbarHashemi Rafsanjani alluded to Iran's position toward Israel and the Western world. Hesaid (according to a translation by the BBC):

If one day, the Islamic world is also equipped with weapons like those thatIsrael possesses now, then the imperialists' strategy will reach a standstillbecause the use of even one nuclear bomb inside Israel will destroyeverything. However, it will only harm the Islamic world. It is not irrationalto contemplate such an eventuality.

However, years later on December 3, 2004, he backtracked:

Allah willing, we expect to soon join the club of the countries that have a

nuclear industry, with all its branches, except the military one, in which weare not interested. We want to get what we're entitled to. I say unequivocallythat for no price will we be willing to relinquish our legal and internationalright. I also say unequivocally to those who make false claims: Iran is notpursuing nuclear weapons, but it will not give up its rights. Yourprovocation will not make us pursue nuclear weapons. We hope that youcome to your senses soon and do not get the world involved in disputes andcrises.

On November 14, 2004, Iran's chief nuclear negotiator said that his country agreedto voluntarily and temporarily suspend the uranium enrichment programme after pressurefrom the European Union on behalf of the United Kingdom, France and Germany, as aconfidence-building measure for a reasonable period of time, with six months mentionedas a reference.

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Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has publicly stated Iran is notdeveloping nuclear weapons. On August 9, 2005 Iran's Supreme Leader, AyatollahAliKhamenei, issued a fatwa that the production, stockpiling and use of nuclear weapons areforbidden under Islam and that Iran shall never acquire these weapons.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued a fatwa forbidding the production, stockpiling anduse of nuclear weapons on August 9, 2005. The text of the fatwa has not been releasedalthough it was referenced in an official statement at a meeting of the InternationalAtomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in a 2005 speech to the U.N. GeneralAssembly said "We are concerned that once certain powerful states completely controlnuclear energy resources and technology, they will deny access to other states and thusdeepen the divide between powerful countries and the rest of the international community

... peaceful use of nuclear energy without possession of a nuclear fuel cycle is an emptyproposition".

On 6 August, 2005, Iran rejected a 34 page European Union proposal intended tohelp Iran build "a safe, economically viable and proliferation-proof civil nuclear powergeneration and research programme. The Europeans, with US agreement, intended toentice Iran into a binding commitment not to build atomic arms by offering to providefuel and other long-term support that would facilitate electricity generation with nuclearenergy. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi rejected the proposalsaying, "We had already announced that any plan has to recognize Irans right to enrich

uranium".

Iran resumed its uranium enrichment programme in January 2006, prompting theIAEA to refer the issue to the UN Security Council.

On February 21, 2006, the reformist Internet daily Rooz reported that HojatoleslamMohsen Gharavian, a student of Qoms fundamentalist cleric Mesbah Yazdi, spoke aboutthe necessity of using nuclear weapons as a means to retaliate and announced that "basedon religious law, everything depends on our purpose".

In an exclusive interview with IRNA on February 21, 2006, Gharavian rejectedreports quoting him as saying that the use of nuclear weapons is allowed according to theIslamic tenets. He claimed to have been misquoted, that his remarks had been distorted,and that enemies of Iran had attempted to create pretexts and misuse the issue throughhue and cry.

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On April 11, 2006, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced Iranianscientists working at the pilot facility at Natanz had successfully enriched uranium to the3.5 percent level, using a small cascade of 164 gas centrifuges. In the televised addressfrom the city of Mashhad he said, "I am officially announcing that Iran has joined thegroup of those countries which have nuclear technology".

In May 2006 some members of the Iranian legislature ("Majlis" or Parliament) senta letter to UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan threatening to withdraw from the NPT ifIran's right to peaceful use of nuclear technology under the treaty was not protected.

3.3: The United States' stance

A potential reason behind US resistance lies in Middle Easterngeopolitics. In essence, the US feels that it must guard against even

the possibility of Iran obtaining a nuclear weapons capability. Somenuclear technology is dual-use; i.e. it can be used for peaceful energygeneration, and to develop nuclear weapons, a situation that resultedin India's nuclear weapons programme in the 1960s. A nuclear-armedIran would dramatically change the balance of power in the middleeast, weakening US influence. It could also encourage other middleeastern nations to develop nuclear weapons of their own furtherreducing US influence in a critical region.

The U.S.'s primary concern with Iran obtaining nuclear weapons is

that it believes Iran sponsors international terrorism.

Iran's support ofHamas and Islamic Jihad[8] leads to US fear thatIranian nuclear weapons could find their way into the hands of Islamicmilitants

The U.S. maintains that Iran does not need nuclear power due to itsabundant oil reserves since nuclear power is more expensive for theIranians to generate than oil-fired power. However, it should be notedthat this argument has taken a back seat as developing nations have re-

invested in their civilian nuclear industries and as magazines such asThe Economist have taken an economic stance similar to that ofIran's.

The US government is concerned that Iran does not formallyrecognise Israel's right to exist, and some Iranian politicians haveopenly called for the destruction of Israel.

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In 2003 the US insisted that Tehran be "held accountable" for seekingto build nuclear arms in violation of its agreements.

In June 2005, the US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice required IAEAhead Mohamed ElBaradei to eithertoughen his stance on Iran or fail to be chosenfor a third term as IAEA head.

The IAEA has on some occasions criticized the stance of the U.S. on Iran'sprogram. The USA denounced Iran's successful enrichment of uranium to fuelgrade in April 2006, with spokesman Scott McClellan saying, they "continue toshow that Iran is moving in the wrong direction".

In November 2006, Seymour Hersh described a classified draft assessmentby the Central Intelligence Agency "challenging the White House's assumptions

about how close Iran might be to building a nuclear bomb. He continued, "TheCIA found no conclusive evidence, as yet, of a secret Iranian nuclear-weaponsprogram running parallel to the civilian operations that Iran has declared to theInternational Atomic Energy Agency," adding that a current senior intelligenceofficial confirmed the assessment.

3.4: Other international responses

The claims and counter claims have put an immense amount of pressure onIran to reveal all aspects of its nuclear programme to date. A great deal of this

pressure has come from Iran's trade partners: Europe, Japan, and Russia. Iran hasbeen slow to respond, claiming the pressure is solely an attempt by the USgovernment to prevent it from obtaining nuclear technology.

3.5: France

On February 16, 2006 French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy said"No civilian nuclear programme can explain the Iranian nuclear programme. It is aclandestine military nuclear programme."

3.6: United Kingdom

On 8th May 2006, Former Deputy Commander-in-Chief of British LandForces, General Sir Hugh Beach, former Cabinet Minsters, scientists andcampaigners joined a delegation to Downing Street opposing military interventionin Iran. The delegation delivered two letters to Prime Minister Tony Blair from1,800 physicists warning that the military intervention and the use of nuclearweapons would have disastrous consequences for the security of Britain and the

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rest of world. The letters carried the signatures of academics, politicians andscientists including some of 5 physicists who are Nobel Laureates.

CASMII delegation

On 17th July 2006, a meeting in the House of Commons challenged TonyBlairs statement that Iran and Syria are to blame for the latest crisis in the MiddleEast and condemned a decision by the Foreign Ministers of the five permanentmembers of the United Nations Security Council and Germany to refer Iran to theUN Security Council. Commons Meeting

3.7: Israel

Israel, a non declared nuclear power, claims that Iran is actively pursuing anuclear weapons programme and would use nuclear weapons against Israel.

Israel is concerned that Iran has developed missiles that are capable ofcarrying nuclear warheads between the two countries. This concern was intensifiedwhen Iran publicly paraded some of the missiles under anti-Israeli banners, such as"Death to Israel" and "Israel should be wiped off the map". See MahmoudAhmadinejad and Israel.

Reasons for Israeli concern can be summed up in 5 points:

1. Iran's President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and other Iranian leadersdeny Israel's right to exist. Iran develops its nuclear energy technology inclandestine facilities.

2. The distance from Iran to Israel is within the range of missile systemspossessed by both countries.

3. Iran maintains a close relationship with the Hezbollah organisation,which has been involved in violent conflicts with Israel.

4. Iran has pledged to attack Israel if it is attacked, even if it wasattacked by the United States (and not Israel).

On December 11, 2005 then Prime Minister of Israel, Ariel Sharon put theIsraeli Defense Forces on high alert for the possibility of ordering airstrikes againstIran's nuclear installations. However, airstrikes are seen as a last resort due to thedispersal, hardening and defense by Surface-to-air missiles of Iranian sites.

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3.8: Opinions in the Arab and Islamic world

The San Francisco Chronicle reported on October 31, 2003, that GrandAyatollahs, like Ayatollah Yousef Sanei, and Iranian clerics led by Ayatollah AliKhamenei have repeatedly declared that Islam forbids the development and use ofall weapons of mass destruction. SFGate.com quoted Ayatollah Ali Khamenei assaying: "The Islamic Republic of Iran, based on its fundamental religious and legalbeliefs, would never resort to the use of weapons of mass destruction. In contrast tothe propaganda of our enemies, fundamentally we are against any production ofweapons of mass destruction in any form."

On April 21, 2006, at a Hamas rally in Damascus, Anwar Raja, the PopularFront for the Liberation of Palestine representative from Lebanon declared:

"The Muslim, Iranian, fighting people now possess nuclear capabilities. Mybrother, the Iranian representative sitting here, let me tell you that we, thePalestinian people, are in favor of Iran having a nuclear bomb, not just energy for

peaceful purposes."

On May 3, 2006 Iraqi Ayatollah Ahmad Husseini Al Baghdadi wasinterviewed on Syrian TV. On his interview he declared his support for the Islamicworld to obtain nuclear weapons:

Why shouldn't an Islamic or Arab country have a nuclear bomb? I am not

referring to the Iranian program, which the Iranians say is for peaceful purposes.I am talking about a nuclear bomb. This Arab Islamic nation must obtain a nuclearbomb. Without a nuclear bomb, we will continue to be oppressed, and theAmerican destruction... The American donkiness... The American donkey itselfwill always continue to attack us, because the Americans are very conceited.

The Islamic Republic of Pakistan already possesses nuclear weapons, seePakistan and weapons of mass destruction for further details.

On May 12, 2006 AP published an interview with Pakistan's former chief of

staffMirza Aslam Beg In the AP interview, Beg detailed nearly 20 years of Iranianapproaches to obtain conventional arms and then technology for nuclear weapons.He described an Iranian visit in 199

Documents

North Korea and Iran weapons of mass destruction