North Reading Public Schools

Enrollment projection process

Step 1.Review Historical Data Trends: What Happened in the past?

1Step 2.% calculated from historical data help determine reliable % of increases or decreases

2Step 3.Review Trend data, 3 year, 5 year, 10 year model. What model is most reliable

3Step 4.Research proposed or planned residential developments and turnover of homes

4Step 5.Review the current conditions and state of the schools. (Impact of COVID-19 virus)

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2

Agenda

We will cover these topics:

Historical District wide Enrollment

Projected District wide Enrollment

Enrollment Projections by School and Level

Impact on Staffing / Budget

3

Historical Enrollment North Reading’s total student

enrollment has been cyclical

In the early fifties enrollment grew quickly from 900 to 1,841 students. The 1960’s saw the numbers rise to 3,217.

In the 1970’s enrollment grew as high as 3,461.

Then in the 1980’s enrollment decreased to 1,926 only to rise again during the 1990’s, peaking at 2,319.

The period since then has seen a growth back to 2,812 in 2008 with a steady decline since then. Currently, student enrollment stands at 2,321.

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2,321

600

1,100

1,600

2,100

2,600

3,100

3,600

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Total District Enrollment History

10 Year enrollment history

Historical enrollment over the last ten years has experienced a moderate decline since 2014.

Enrollment currently stands at 2,321 students as of October 2021.

There is evidence that the moderate decline the District has experienced in enrollment over the past decade will change and there will be a steady increase in enrollment as the real estate market continues to improve and housing developments increase in town.

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2,606 2,612 2,560 2,532

2,499 2,493 2,398 2,397

2,309 2,321

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

North Reading Public SchoolsEnrollment 10-Year History

Enrollment Projections

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Districtwide enrollment depicted in the graph is expected to experience a moderate increase over the next five to ten years;

All projections are most reliable in year’s #1-5; and less reliable in year’s #6-10;

As the economy and real estate situations continues to improve in the region, additional in-migration has begun to return to North Reading, and enrollment will increase over the next decade back to levels in 2014 and 2015 close to 2,600 students.

2,321 2,356 2,371 2,420 2,440 2,442

2,471 2,479 2,506 2,524 2,568

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032

North Reading Public SchoolsPK - 12 Enrollment 10-Year Projection

Elementary Enrollment Elementary enrollment (K-5),

next school year is projected to increase by 39 students;

As you can see from the table below, Kindergarten enrollment is anticipated to increase by 21 students, which can be contributed to a higher birth rate statistic from five years earlier but kindergarten enrollment can be very difficult to predict;

Given the increases in enrollment, the District does anticipate staffing increases at the elementary level in FY 23, leading to the need for additional teachers in fiscal year 2023.

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1,085 1,050 1,061 1,058 1,067

1,106 1,129

1,175 1,166 1,168

600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950

1,000 1,050 1,100 1,150 1,200 1,250

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

North Reading Public SchoolsK-5 Elementary Enrollment History & Projections

Actuals Projections

School Year K 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Total K-5

2021-22 Actual 175 189 204 145 181 173 1,067

2022-23 Projection 196 186 190 204 149 181 1,106

2023-24 Projection 180 208 193 190 209 149 1,129

2024-25 Projection 178 191 209 193 195 209 1,175

2025-26 Projection 183 189 192 209 198 195 1,166

2026-27 Projection 180 194 190 192 214 198 1,168

Middle school Projections

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Middle School enrollment is expected to decrease by 24 students next school year;

Over the next three to four years, it is anticipated that grades 6-8 will decrease by approx. (24) total students;

As you can see by the above chart, long-term enrollment projections indicate the middle school enrollment; will decrease the next three years and then experience an increase and continue to level out at about 550-555 students;

No additional staffing should be necessary at the middle school to address changes in enrollment.

548 540 536 549 564540 547

503

540 554

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

North Reading Public SchoolsMiddle School Enrollment History & Projections

Actuals Projections

School Year 6 7 8 Total 6-82021-22 Actual 193 174 197 5642022-23 Projection 173 193 174 5402023-24 Projection 181 173 193 5472024-25 Projection 149 181 173 5032025-26 Projection 210 149 181 5402026-27 Projection 195 210 149 554

High School Projections

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High School has experienced the biggest change in enrollment these past three years declining from 752 students in 2019 to 639 students today;

High School enrollment is expected to experience an increase in enrollment next year by 16 students and is expected to level off at about 680 students;

No additional staffing should be necessary at the high school to address changes in enrollment.

812752 740

662639 655 640

689 680 666

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

North Reading Public SchoolsHigh School Enrollment History & Projections

Actuals Projections

School Year 9 10 11 12 Ungraded Total 9-122021-22 Actual 170 130 176 162 1 6392022-23 Projection 183 170 128 174 6552023-24 Projection 162 183 168 127 6402024-25 Projection 180 162 181 166 0 6892025-26 Projection 161 180 160 179 0 6802026-27 Projection 169 161 178 158 0 666

Summary

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As the projections indicate above, the biggest enrollment shifts will take place at the elementary level over the next five years;

The elementary school enrollment with increasing kindergarten enrollment as in-migration of school age families come to North Reading will increase over the next several years, leading to a need for additional staffing to maintain class size guidelines;

Enrollment at the middle and high school level will experience moderate changes and increases;

However, it is very likely these patterns will not last as long as ten years;

It is important to review trends, census data and changes in the real estate market and developments within the community on an annual basis and their impact on school enrollment.

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,0002,2002,4002,6002,800

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

North Reading Enrollment History and Projections

Elementary Middle School High School

Actual Enrollment Projected Enrollment

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