NorthwestIndependentSchool District

3Q13Quarterly

Report

Learn from Yesterday…Understand Today…Plan for Tomorrow

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Economic Conditions

• Texas added 1 new job for every 3 people from 2000 to 2013, the U.S. added 1 job for every 7 people, Texas outperformed the U.S. job creation rate by more than two-to-one. (Forbes)

• Texas has created more than 270 thousand non-farm jobs in the last 12 months. (Texas Comptroller’s Office)

• The state's unemployment rate has been at or below the national rate for 81 consecutive months. (http://www.thetexaseconomy.org/economic-outlook/ )

• DFW is the 4th largest MSA in the country behind only NYC, LA and Chicago

(City Journal – Winter 2013)• Unemployment rates - Texas Labor Market Information (August 2013)

- U.S. 7.6%- Texas 6.5%- DFW MSA 6.2%- Tarrant County 5.9%- Fort Worth 6.2%

• Apartment vacancy rate is below 6% which has led to a record high average monthly rent of $861, a 3.4% increase over last year.

• DFW builders put up 5,861 new homes in the last quarter, a 27 percent increase year over year. (Dallas Business Journal)

National Economic Overview Top Job Growth Markets Ranked by Percent Change in Emp. – Sept. 2013

7 out of the top 10 job growth cities are in Texas.

Source: Forbes Magazine3

National Economic Overview Top 5 MSAs Ranked by Annualized New Home Starts 2013

Source: Metrostudy4

DFW Housing MarketStarts and Closings

21,013

18,855

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

3Q03 3Q04 3Q05 3Q06 3Q07 3Q08 3Q09 3Q10 3Q11 3Q12 3Q13

AnnualSta

rts

&Clo

sings

Annual Starts

Annual Closings

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DFW Housing MarketMultiple Listing Service – YTD SFD Activity & Inventory

Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center for NTREIS

Sept-13 %ChangeYTD Sales 69,256 20%Average Price 226,901 9%Median Price 174,500 10%Listings 23,422 -14%DOM 52 -25%Monthly Supply 3.2 -28%

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DFW New Home Ranking Report ISD Ranked by Annual Closings – 3Q13

Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future1 Frisco ISD 3,008 2,534 4,072 9,0732 Northwest ISD 1,260 1,101 1,750 22,1743 Denton ISD 1,234 1,101 2,330 14,5854 Keller ISD 813 844 1,269 3,2185 Lewisville ISD 946 834 1,598 2,5496 Dallas ISD 892 793 2,138 7,3297 Prosper ISD 918 771 1,494 15,3208 McKinney ISD 714 662 1,247 7,2259 Eagle Mtn. - Saginaw ISD 725 661 1,603 20,004

10 Little Elm ISD 635 653 807 7,03111 Mansfield ISD 618 615 757 5,69212 Allen ISD 606 563 966 1,37313 Rockwall ISD 555 442 1,630 8,10814 Crowley ISD 374 406 1,897 8,22915 Plano ISD 372 393 828 1,36116 Forney ISD 441 378 1,401 11,47717 Wylie ISD 344 356 574 5,32418 Fort Worth ISD 347 347 1,069 4,63819 Burleson ISD 391 335 727 3,66220 Carrollton-Farmers Branch ISD 295 329 408 92321 Anna ISD 348 312 376 3,68022 Midlothian ISD 342 309 1,012 14,26823 Garland ISD 299 306 613 3,14124 Waxahachie ISD 271 226 931 9,08525 HEB ISD 292 205 431 6,14626 Birdville ISD 198 205 170 37627 Weatherford ISD 234 200 697 60428 Aledo ISD 278 196 806 15,61829 Royse City ISD 226 196 955 7,27130 Melissa ISD 169 195 234 5,420

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Foreclosures

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ISD 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13Dallas ISD 479 500 312Fort Worth ISD 181 228 133Arlington ISD 157 183 112Garland ISD 175 166 112Mansfield ISD 118 127 101Mesquite ISD 163 146 85Keller ISD 100 106 77Crowley ISD 77 94 60Grand Prairie ISD 100 86 58Birdville ISD 70 78 57De Soto ISD 76 71 56Lewisville ISD 110 115 56Frisco ISD 86 71 55Plano ISD 101 83 55Duncanville ISD 68 72 43Eagle Mt-Saginaw ISD 64 90 54Denton ISD 71 83 45Richardson ISD 86 57 45Rockwall ISD 41 41 40Irving ISD 59 66 38Carrollton-Farmers Branch ISD 58 65 37Hurst-Euless-Bedford ISD 32 57 33Northwest ISD 54 64 31McKinney ISD 62 68 30Little Elm ISD 33 33 21Azle ISD 25 19 16Grapevine-Colleyville ISD 17 9 14Royse City ISD 20 23 12Carroll ISD 4 5 6Midlothian ISD 30 12 1

New Housing Activity

• 3Q13 starts are up above 350 for the second straight quarter, YTD starts are up 20% over 2012 YTD.

• Closings are maintaining the pace of starts and will likely be over 1,000 units for at least 7 straight years.

• Inventory is back up above 600 for the first time in more than 3 years.

Northwest ISD Housing Activity

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Starts 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Closings 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20131Q 339 185 303 235 251 288   1Q 462 233 232 230 218 2262Q 419 251 345 268 298 362   2Q 446 276 340 230 331 3183Q 387 366 264 282 286 353   3Q 444 303 348 263 333 3004Q 275 258 204 256 257     4Q 421 308 276 295 258  

Total 1,420 1,060 1,116 1,041 1,092 1,003   Total 1,773 1,120 1,196 1,018 1,140 844

Annual Closing Distribution 3Q13

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Top 10 Subdivisions - 3Q13 (Ranked by Annual Closings)

Rank SubdivisionAnnual Starts

Annual Closings

1 Sendera Ranch (Thompson) 149 1202 Trophy Club/Highlands at (Beck) 105 1013 Harmon Ranch 106 884 Tehama Ridge 98 865 Briarwyck (Roanoke) 93 776 Trophy Club/Highlands at (Lakeview) 70 677 Willow Ridge Estates (Ft. Worth) 64 678 Trophy Club/Turnberry 54 459 Valley Ridge 37 42

10 Ranches, The 63 35 TOTALS 839 728

Vacant Developed Lots 3Q13

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Top 5 Subdivisions - 3Q13 (Ranked by remaining Vacant Developed Lots)

Rank Subdivision VDL Future1 Sendera Ranch (Thompson) 125 38242 Fairway Ranch 114 3823 Valley Ridge 99 04 Trophy Club/Highlands at (Beck) 98 915 Highlands Glen 95 06 Harmon Ranch 84 4097 Tehama Ridge 83 08 Willow Ridge Estates (Ft. Worth) 76 3769 Trophy Club/Highlands at (Lakeview) 65 60

10 Willow Springs Ranch 63 0 TOTALS 902 5,142

Future Lots 3Q13

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Top 10 Subdivisions - 3Q13 (Ranked by Future Inventory)

Rank Subdivision VDL Future1 Tradition 0 45172 Sendera Ranch (Thompson) 125 38243 Sendera Ranch (Sendera Ranch) 45 28024 Bonds Ranch/Bonds Ranch (NWISD) 0 11625 Richmond 0 7406 Canyon Falls (Northlake) 0 7267 Trails of Fossil Creek 52 6608 Shale Creek 33 6009 Seventeen Lakes 60 551

10 Elizabeth Creek Estates 0 539 TOTALS 315 16,121

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Overall Housing DataBy Elementary Attendance Zone

Highest activity in the category Second highest activity in the category Third highest activity in the category

Elementary ZoneAnnual Starts

Quarter Starts

Annual Closings

Quarter Closings Inventory

Vacant Dev. Lots Future Lots

BECK 115 37 113 27 56 216 160CLARA LOVE 16 2 34 3 4 0 311COX 42 12 35 7 29 233 1,202GRANGER 0 0 9 1 0 0 0HASLET 37 6 34 9 13 78 1,100HATFIELD 82 18 44 19 52 45 6,078HUGHES 100 20 77 26 40 130 0JUSTIN 28 9 18 3 15 153 365LAKEVIEW 143 41 134 39 63 110 237NANCE 46 20 46 4 24 81 1,511PETERSON 227 67 194 71 91 192 483PRAIRIE VIEW 28 15 25 1 19 57 786ROANOKE 93 31 77 16 44 49 1,216SCHLUTER 123 47 102 29 65 136 1,825SENDERA RANCH 8 1 29 3 5 45 2,802SEVEN HILLS 23 6 10 5 14 100 274THOMPSON 149 21 120 37 66 125 3,824

Grand Total 1,260 353 1,101 300 600 1,750 22,174

Enrollment History

*Yellow box = largest grade per year*Green box = second largest grade per year

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Year (Oct.) EE/PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Growth % 2009/10 252 1,227 1,220 1,218 1,148 1,127 1,151 1,058 1,101 1,044 1,114 1,013 821 670 14,164 2010/11 284 1,284 1,297 1,303 1,282 1,201 1,219 1,230 1,122 1,116 1,219 1,122 925 766 15,370 1,206 8.5%2011/12 301 1,383 1,391 1,407 1,368 1,331 1,291 1,317 1,281 1,190 1,278 1,210 1,013 865 16,626 1,256 8.2%2012/13 300 1,448 1,465 1,448 1,466 1,433 1,402 1,400 1,375 1,325 1,344 1,302 1,153 950 17,811 1,185 7.1%2013/14 291 1,557 1,590 1,591 1,571 1,607 1,574 1,398 1,438 1,419 1,478 1,284 1,210 1,128 19,136 1,325 7.4%

EE/PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th2010/11 1.13 1.05 1.06 1.07 1.05 1.05 1.08 1.07 1.06 1.01 1.17 1.01 0.91 0.932011/12 1.06 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.05 1.04 1.07 1.08 1.04 1.06 1.15 0.99 0.90 0.942012/13 1.00 1.05 1.06 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.05 1.08 1.04 1.03 1.13 1.02 0.95 0.942013/14 0.97 1.08 1.10 1.09 1.08 1.10 1.10 1.00 1.03 1.03 1.12 0.96 0.93 0.98

Roll-up 300 1,557 1,557 1,590 1,591 1,571 1,607 1,574 1,398 1,438 1,419 1,478 1,284 1,210 19,574 438Prev Cohort 300 1,674 1,710 1,727 1,726 1,722 1,765 1,569 1,436 1,484 1,583 1,412 1,193 1,184 20,485 1,349

3-Year Cohort 300 1,660 1,718 1,702 1,685 1,666 1,728 1,659 1,450 1,499 1,603 1,462 1,192 1,150 20,475 1,339

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Ten Year ForecastBy Grade Level

Year (Oct.) EE/PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Growth % 2009/10 252 1,227 1,220 1,218 1,148 1,127 1,151 1,058 1,101 1,044 1,114 1,013 821 670 14,164 2010/11 284 1,284 1,297 1,303 1,282 1,201 1,219 1,230 1,122 1,116 1,219 1,122 925 766 15,370 1,206 8.5%2011/12 301 1,383 1,391 1,407 1,368 1,331 1,291 1,317 1,281 1,190 1,278 1,210 1,013 865 16,626 1,256 8.2%2012/13 300 1,448 1,465 1,448 1,466 1,433 1,402 1,400 1,375 1,325 1,344 1,302 1,153 950 17,811 1,185 7.1%2013/14 291 1,557 1,590 1,591 1,571 1,607 1,574 1,398 1,438 1,419 1,478 1,284 1,210 1,128 19,136 1,325 7.4%2014/15 291 1,661 1,690 1,688 1,704 1,666 1,695 1,599 1,458 1,500 1,618 1,408 1,197 1,185 20,360 1,224 6.4%2015/16 291 1,760 1,794 1,789 1,787 1,803 1,756 1,733 1,648 1,505 1,708 1,578 1,320 1,177 21,649 1,290 6.3%2016/17 291 1,856 1,898 1,899 1,899 1,899 1,905 1,781 1,778 1,691 1,705 1,645 1,476 1,298 23,021 1,371 6.3%2017/18 291 1,968 2,012 2,013 2,017 2,016 2,008 1,941 1,834 1,831 1,946 1,643 1,539 1,455 24,514 1,493 6.5%2018/19 291 2,096 2,138 2,143 2,135 2,152 2,134 2,045 1,992 1,886 2,082 1,885 1,538 1,516 26,033 1,519 6.2%2019/20 291 2,224 2,269 2,268 2,264 2,266 2,281 2,164 2,093 2,049 2,146 2,012 1,768 1,514 27,609 1,575 6.1%2020/21 291 2,359 2,397 2,405 2,397 2,413 2,402 2,319 2,222 2,152 2,334 2,075 1,888 1,741 29,395 1,786 6.5%2021/22 291 2,503 2,546 2,542 2,545 2,554 2,560 2,441 2,379 2,285 2,443 2,259 1,947 1,853 31,148 1,753 6.0%2022/23 291 2,655 2,700 2,700 2,692 2,715 2,711 2,602 2,504 2,448 2,593 2,364 2,121 1,910 33,006 1,857 6.0%2023/24 291 2,816 2,864 2,860 2,859 2,871 2,883 2,758 2,670 2,577 2,777 2,509 2,221 2,081 35,037 2,031 6.2%

*Yellow box = largest grade per year*Green box = second largest grade per year

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Ten Year ForecastBy Elementary School Campus

Current ProjectionsElementary Schools 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24Beck Elementary 788 837 926 997 1,068 1,118 1,168 1,206 1,255 1,302 1,349Clara Love Elementary 632 697 728 769 782 825 832 816 815 818 821Cox Elementary 357 391 446 477 527 573 633 701 777 860 954Granger Elementary 882 879 880 862 840 806 788 782 780 783 789Haslet Elementary 484 475 497 495 514 542 564 590 616 644 672Hatfield Elementary 386 427 470 522 581 635 708 785 865 948 1033Hughes Elementary 596 614 592 620 629 629 646 662 681 701 712Justin Elementary 503 524 536 557 584 614 632 651 668 677 685Lakeview Elementary 544 562 590 616 625 648 670 689 707 726 745Nance Elementary 483 505 510 519 527 554 575 596 621 647 673Peterson Elementary 695 766 839 896 927 962 1004 1043 1086 1130 1176Prairie View Elementary 486 523 548 588 601 617 632 644 661 680 699Roanoke Elementary 864 933 956 1017 1095 1186 1283 1394 1511 1638 1776Sendera Ranch Elementary 605 668 759 832 969 1146 1289 1435 1579 1715 1862Seven Hills Elementary 546 577 608 647 710 764 825 897 969 1048 1133Schluter Elementay 451 496 545 621 689 775 876 986 1113 1255 1414Thompson Elementary 481 520 552 614 659 694 740 788 838 893 951TOTAL ELEMENTARY 9,781 10,395 10,980 11,647 12,325 13,089 13,863 14,664 15,541 16,464 17,444Elementary growth 819 614 586 666 678 764 773 801 877 922 980

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Ten Year ForecastBy Middle School and High School Campus

Current ProjectionsMiddle Schools 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2019/21Chisholm Trail Middle School 883 912 984 1,038 1,128 1,163 1,260 1,341 1,438 1,545 1,661Gene Pike Middle School 769 775 791 795 886 928 981 1,040 1,136 1,196 1,242Medlin Middle School 976 1,052 1,120 1,182 1,217 1,276 1,351 1,443 1,526 1,613 1,690Tidwell Middle School 929 1,038 1,196 1,375 1,508 1,619 1,706 1,749 1,765 1,829 1,900Wilson Middle School 698 780 795 860 867 937 1,008 1,120 1,240 1,371 1,512TOTAL MIDDLE SCHOOL 4,255 4,557 4,886 5,250 5,606 5,923 6,306 6,693 7,105 7,554 8,005MIDDLE SCHOOL GROWTH 155 302 329 364 356 317 383 387 412 449 451High Schools 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2019/21Northwest High School 2,716 2,882 3,093 3,307 3,469 3,652 3,824 4,065 4,273 4,574 4,934Byron Nelson High School 2,260 2,399 2,563 2,690 2,987 3,242 3,489 3,846 4,102 4,287 4,526Steele Accelerated High School 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90Denton County JJAEP 3 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Denton Creek 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 TOTAL HIGH SCHOOL 5,100 5,408 5,783 6,124 6,583 7,021 7,440 8,038 8,502 8,988 9,587HIGH SCHOOL GROWTH 351 308 375 341 459 438 419 598 464 486 599TOTAL 19,136 20,360 21,649 23,021 24,514 26,033 27,609 29,395 31,148 33,006 35,036Growth 1,325 1,224 1,290 1,371 1,493 1,519 1,575 1,786 1,753 1,857 2,030% Growth 7.4% 6.4% 6.3% 6.3% 6.5% 6.2% 6.1% 6.5% 6.0% 6.0% 6.2%

Summary

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• 2013 could see over 1,300 new homes.

• District has approximately 1,750 VDL, only a 18 month supply of lots

• Peterson, Thompson and Lakeview have all had over 140 starts in the last 12 months.

• Northwest ISD can expect an increase of approximately 6,247 students during the next 5 years.

• 2017/18 enrollment projection 23,927 and will likely exceed 25,000 in the following year.