Nova Scotia Solar Summit 2018 Nova Scotia Residential Solar...Topic 1: Market and policy drivers and barriers to residential solar Topic 2: Opportunities and challenges in employment

Ahmed Hanafy

Analyst

Nova Scotia Residential Solar:Market Outlook, Supply Chain and Labour Force Study

December 4th , 2018

Halifax, Nova Scotia

Nova Scotia Solar Summit 2018

CLIE

NTS

SERVICESEXPERTISE

ASSESS

opportunities

DESIGN

strategies

EVALUATE

performanceEFFICIENCY RENEWABLES MOBILITY

SERVICESEXPERTISE

ASSESS

opportunities

DESIGN

strategies

EVALUATE

performanceEFFICIENCY RENEWABLES MOBILITY

Outline

Project Scope

• Overview

• Approach

• Preliminary Results

• Next Steps

Industry Input

• Session overview and desired input

• Discussion

• Wrap-up

Project Scope: Overview

Dunsky is supporting CanSIA in developing a market outlook, labour force

and supply chain study for the Nova Scotia (NS) residential solar market.

Objectives

❑ Understand the deployment of residential solar in Nova Scotia to 2030

❑ Estimate the associated direct workforce requirements to meet this demand

❑ Identify gaps in skills, training and certification necessary to prepare the labour force to

meet market demand

❑ Identify economic development potential in supporting industries

❑ Understand the potential for the solar industry is engage in emerging technologies;

namely battery storage and EV charging

• Forecasts distributed solar demand in client-

defined regions

• Project BAU scenario + forecast impacts of policy

and program support:• Incentives

• Financing

• Compensation Mechanisms (FiT, NEM, NB)

• Assesses sensitivity to key exogenous parameters such as electricity Rates, PV costs, etc.

• Used for clients across Canada and the U.S. (ON,

AB, NB, MB, NS, SK, NY, CA, MT, ND) to• Provide insights into natural market uptake (and

corresponding load impacts)

• Design incentive and financing programs

• Assess Value of Solar and financial impact to utilities

Approach: Solar Adoption Model (SAM)

Approach: Solar Market OutlookA

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roa

ch

Key Questions

• What is the market potential for residential solar?

• What are the key sensitivity/risk factors?

1. Gather NS-specific data

2. Apply Solar Adoption Model (SAM):

• Calibrate model by benchmarking to historical adoption

• Project baseline (business-as-usual) market demand

3. Scenario/sensitivity analysis:• PV system costs

• Electricity rates and design

• Incentive programs

• Other policy and market uncertainties/risks.

Approach: Labour ForceA

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ch

1. Identify local supply-chain and map key market actors

2. Job creation metric: Full Time Equivalent (FTEs) per MW installed

• Review existing Nova Scotia market data

• Desk reviews of employment studies from other jurisdictions

• Survey and targeted interviews with key stakeholders

3. Certification and Training

• Identify required skills across the value chain

• Gap analysis to identify differences between required and on-the-ground skills

• Identify certification and training strategies to ensure local labour to ready to address

market demand

Key Questions

• How many jobs can the residential solar market create/support?

• What gaps in skills exist and what is required to fill them?

Ap

pro

ac

hApproach: New Service Areas

1. Battery Storage

A. Evaluate opportunity potential: estimate solar+storage deployment in residential sector

based on incremental benefits and costs to customers

B. Assess local industry’s readiness to address the market: Strengths, Weaknesses,

Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT) analysis

2. EV Home charging

A. Evaluate opportunity potential

• Assess impacts of EV adoption on residential on system sizes

• Estimate overlap between solar and EV adopters

• Use EV adoption forecasts to estimate market size

B. Evaluate opportunity potential: Assess local industry’s readiness to address the market:

Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT) analysis

Key Questions

• How big is the market for emerging technologies?

• Can the solar industry address the market?

Preliminary Results: Historical Demand

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Annual Cumulative

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Annual Cumulative

• Market history

• Steady growth between 2011 and 2017

• Launch of Solar Homes tripled annual uptake in 2018

• By end of 2018, 700+ systems and 5.5 MW of capacity are estimated to be installed

Preliminary Results: Market Demand Forecast

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Installed Residential Solar Capacity (MW)

Nova Scotia


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Uncertainity Nova Scotia

Sensitivities• Electricity rates

• System costs

• Incentives

• System Sizes


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28 MW

Alberta 2023

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28 MW

Alberta 2023

150 MW

Ontario 2028

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Jurisdiction

Installed Residential

Solar Capacity

(2018)

Population (2018)Installed Capacity per

Capita

Nova Scotia 5.5 MW 0.95 M 5.8 Watt/Capita

Alberta 28 MW 4.3 M 6.5 Watt/Capita

Ontario 150 MW 14.2 M 10.6 Watt/Capita

New York 600 MW 8.6 M 70 Watt/Capita

California 4,500 MW 39.5 M 114 Watt/Capita

• Compared to other mature markets across North America

• Nova Scotia solar market still in early stages in absolute installed capacity

• On trajectory to match other markets on a per-capita basis

Preliminary Results: Nova Scotia Supply Chain

Other

Operations & Maintenance

Installation

Project Development

(Permitting, interconnection, etc.)

Engineering and Design

Sales and Customer Acquisition

Distribution

Manufacturing

(Cells, modules, BOS) Upstream

Activities

Downstream

Activities


Other


Installation

Project Development




Distribution

Manufacturing


Activities

Downstream

Activities

Equipment Supply:

Mostly outside of

Nova Scotia

Project Development:

Mostly local

Implementation:

Local site-level work


Other


Installation

Project Development




Distribution

Manufacturing


Activities

Downstream

Activities

50% of solar

employment usually

in installation


Other


Installation

Project Development




Distribution

Manufacturing


Activities

Downstream

Activities

Jurisdictional scan

of job creation metrics:

• 8-20 FTEs/MW

• 5-15 FTEs/$M

Next Steps

Work Progress

• Market Outlook

• Assess demand under specific scenarios (TBD)

• Refine projections

• Labour Force Study

• Complete desk reviews of studies from other jurisdictions

• Analyze survey results

• Conduct targeted interviews

• New Service Areas

Final report expected by end of February 2019

Questions?

Industry Input

Session Overview• Four discussion topics

Group Discussion• 5-8 minutes per topic

Wrap-up (time-permitting)• Consolidating all input

Industry Input: Discussion Topics

Topic 1: Market and policy drivers and barriers to residential solar

Topic 2: Opportunities and challenges in employment growth in the solar industry

Topic 3: Expanding the solar value-chain in Nova Scotia

Topic 4: Solar industry’s role in emerging technologies (battery storage and EVs)


Topic 1: Market and policy drivers and barriers to residential solar

• What is working well?

• What is not working?


Topic 2: Opportunities and challenges in employment growth in the solar industry

• What is the job creation potential?

• Are they any skills gaps in the labor force skill gaps and what

training/certification may be required to bridge those gaps?


Topic 3: Expanding the solar value-chain in Nova Scotia

• Are they opportunities to bring in more of the supply-chain locally?

• What are the opportunities/barriers?


Topic 4: Solar industry’s role in emerging technologies (battery storage and EVs)

• Is there a role for the solar industry to play in these areas?

• What are the opportunities/barriers in place?

Questions?

Ahmed HanafyAnalyst

(514) 504 9030 ext. 37

[email protected]

Documents

Nova Scotia Solar Summit 2018 Nova Scotia Residential Solar...Topic 1: Market and policy drivers and barriers to residential solar Topic 2: Opportunities and challenges in employment