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November 18, 2009 CARE Agriculture and Natural Resources Strategy ‘Global Agriculture Review’ June 2010 Julia Berazneva, Louise Buck, Patricia Casal, Phoebe Garfinkel, Micah Ingalls, David Lee Courtney Wallace Cornell University and EcoAgriculture Partner

November 18, 2009 CARE Agriculture and Natural Resources Strategy ‘Global Agriculture Review’ June 2010 Julia Berazneva, Louise Buck, Patricia Casal, Phoebe

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Page 1: November 18, 2009 CARE Agriculture and Natural Resources Strategy ‘Global Agriculture Review’ June 2010 Julia Berazneva, Louise Buck, Patricia Casal, Phoebe

November 18, 2009

CARE Agriculture and Natural Resources Strategy‘Global Agriculture Review’

June 2010

Julia Berazneva, Louise Buck, Patricia Casal,Phoebe Garfinkel, Micah Ingalls, David Lee

Courtney Wallace

Cornell University and EcoAgriculture Partners

Page 2: November 18, 2009 CARE Agriculture and Natural Resources Strategy ‘Global Agriculture Review’ June 2010 Julia Berazneva, Louise Buck, Patricia Casal, Phoebe

I. Pathways of change in CARE’s Agriculture and Natural Resources Program

Page 3: November 18, 2009 CARE Agriculture and Natural Resources Strategy ‘Global Agriculture Review’ June 2010 Julia Berazneva, Louise Buck, Patricia Casal, Phoebe
Page 4: November 18, 2009 CARE Agriculture and Natural Resources Strategy ‘Global Agriculture Review’ June 2010 Julia Berazneva, Louise Buck, Patricia Casal, Phoebe

II. Drivers of change in agriculture and food availability and their impact on CARE’s target populations

Page 5: November 18, 2009 CARE Agriculture and Natural Resources Strategy ‘Global Agriculture Review’ June 2010 Julia Berazneva, Louise Buck, Patricia Casal, Phoebe

Global Drivers of Change in Agriculture and Natural Resources

SectorsDriver: Any natural- or human-induced factor that directly or indirectly brings about change in production, marketing and institutional support systems for agriculture and natural resources.

Drivers are numerous and layered (Hazel and Wood, 2007)

9 Key Global Drivers:

1. Population pressure and food distribution2. Increasing concentration of population in urban

areas 3. Globalization of the food and agriculture system4. Changing consumer preferences5. Agriculture land use for non-food products and

services6. Natural resources scarcity7. Climate change 8. HIV/AIDS Prevelance 9. Information and Communication Technology

Advances

Page 6: November 18, 2009 CARE Agriculture and Natural Resources Strategy ‘Global Agriculture Review’ June 2010 Julia Berazneva, Louise Buck, Patricia Casal, Phoebe

Population pressure and food distribution

• Human population is expected to grow from 6 billion in 2007, to nearly 9 billion by 2050, increasing global demand for food by 50% next two decades (Hazel & Wood 2007), 70-100% by 2050 (Godfrey et al 2010)

• Hunger due not to food production, but to access to

food:– Purchasing power (income distribution)– Food price and distribution (markets, infrastructure and

policy)(UN Millenium Project 2005, MEA 2005, von Braun 2005, FAO 2006)

• ‘Global food crisis’ of 2008: changes in food prices affect food supply with some long term effects (Evans 2008).

• Concerns at regional and local levels:– Hunger and malnutrition: 1.2 billion people living in

poverty, 90% South Asia and Africa, 75% rural who depend on agriculture

– Increase in agriculture demand: land and water requirements

– Environmental impacts: ecosystem services, health risks

– Large, persistant spatial differences (Cassman & Wood 2005)

Page 7: November 18, 2009 CARE Agriculture and Natural Resources Strategy ‘Global Agriculture Review’ June 2010 Julia Berazneva, Louise Buck, Patricia Casal, Phoebe

• Per capita agricultural output (including food) has increased in recent decades: scientific and technological advances allowed intensification and reduced the demand for land (FAO, 2006)

• Future increases in population and staple food needs are expected in LDCs. Development of domestic agriculture play and important role.

Population pressure and food distribution

Page 8: November 18, 2009 CARE Agriculture and Natural Resources Strategy ‘Global Agriculture Review’ June 2010 Julia Berazneva, Louise Buck, Patricia Casal, Phoebe

Urbanization

• By 2030 the developing world is expected to have 79% of the world’s urban dwellers (Caballero 2002)

• Of the 3 billion people living in urban centers, 1 billion are living in slums; by 2030, this figure will double (World Watch 2007)

Page 9: November 18, 2009 CARE Agriculture and Natural Resources Strategy ‘Global Agriculture Review’ June 2010 Julia Berazneva, Louise Buck, Patricia Casal, Phoebe

Urbanization

• Asia and Africa’s urban populations are expected to double to 3.4 billion by 2030 (World Watch Institute 2007)

• Urbanization creates a change in food environments that directly impact dietary intake and consumer preferences: (Mendez 2004)

• Men and women enter workforce and have less time for food production and preparation (FAO 2004)

• Increasing incomes increase food purchases in urban areas (FAO 2004)

• Diets in urban areas tend to be higher in polished grains, fats, sugars and processed and packaged foods (Mendez 2004)

Page 10: November 18, 2009 CARE Agriculture and Natural Resources Strategy ‘Global Agriculture Review’ June 2010 Julia Berazneva, Louise Buck, Patricia Casal, Phoebe

Globalization of agriculture and food systems

Globalization means integration of inputs and outputs into global markets, global sharing of information and knowledge, and global rules governing such integration.

• • Globalization can

greatly enhance the role of agriculture as an engine of growth by making it possible for agriculture to grow considerably faster than domestic consumption.

• It can also increase food security through stimulating demand for rural, labor-intensive, non-tradable goods and services (FAO 2003).

Page 11: November 18, 2009 CARE Agriculture and Natural Resources Strategy ‘Global Agriculture Review’ June 2010 Julia Berazneva, Louise Buck, Patricia Casal, Phoebe

• Requirements to benefit from globalization: perfect knowledge and frictionless movements of finance, inputs, output, information, and science across vast geographic areas.

• The extent and pace of globalization of agriculture differs by country.

Implications of Globalization:– Trade liberalization: increased competition in domestic and export

markets, cost reductions in one place have immediate impacts in other places, role of multilateral and regional trade agreements

– Integrated financial and capital markets: increase in the level of FDI • Between 1990 and 2004 FDI stock more than tripled in agriculture

and roughly quadrupled in the food processing sector (von Braun and Díaz-Bonilla 2008)

– Structural changes in agricultural markets and increasing role of private sector: vertical market integration and consolidation of market power

– Changes in global and domestic prices: lower world prices due to productivity gains, but slow transmission of lower prices to domestic markets due to inefficiencies, increase in retail-level food prices and their high variability

Globalization of agriculture and food systems

Page 12: November 18, 2009 CARE Agriculture and Natural Resources Strategy ‘Global Agriculture Review’ June 2010 Julia Berazneva, Louise Buck, Patricia Casal, Phoebe

• Implications of the globalized agrifood system for development and poverty (von Braun and Díaz-Bonilla 2008):

– Changing environment for innovation and information: • growing level of involvement of the private sector• increasingly proprietary and competitive research environment • slowing down of public-sector research expenditure

– Increasing commercialization of small producers: • increasing competitiveness• adverse effects on net sellers of food in inefficient sectors• potential to benefit from vertical integration with agribusinesses• displacement of traditional agriculturalists

– Changes in trade and domestic markets toward a global agrifood business chain:

• trade and agricultural policies shaped by multilateral, regional, and bilateral agreements

• influence of private rules such as quality standards

– Consumer-driven agrifood systems: • greater quality and safety concerns• reorganization of food chains including supermarkets and

agroprocessors• changing consumers’ preferences

Globalization of agriculture and food systems

Page 13: November 18, 2009 CARE Agriculture and Natural Resources Strategy ‘Global Agriculture Review’ June 2010 Julia Berazneva, Louise Buck, Patricia Casal, Phoebe

• Livestock contribute 40 percent of the global value of agricultural output and support the livelihoods and food security of almost a billion people (FAO 2009)

• Rising incomes in the middle class, urbanization, and population growth, are driving demand for meat, seafood and other animal products (FAO 2009)

Source: World Watch 2008

Source: World Watch 2008

Changing consumer preferences

Page 14: November 18, 2009 CARE Agriculture and Natural Resources Strategy ‘Global Agriculture Review’ June 2010 Julia Berazneva, Louise Buck, Patricia Casal, Phoebe

Changing consumer preferences

Changing consumer preferences are due to:

1) Urbanization 2) Rising incomes3) Globalized trade in the agriculture sector4) Foreign Direct Investment in food processing and retail

sectors (Hawkes 2008)

• Dominance of retail food sector has changed the rules of the game for producers and consumers: “markets” are now “super-markets” (Reardon 2003)

• Consumer preference shifts are beginning to extend beyond urban areas (Mendez 2004)…

• …but rural areas still struggle with fragmented markets, poor productivity and high levels of food insecurity (FAO 2004)

Page 15: November 18, 2009 CARE Agriculture and Natural Resources Strategy ‘Global Agriculture Review’ June 2010 Julia Berazneva, Louise Buck, Patricia Casal, Phoebe

Agricultural land use for Biofuels

• Rapid growth in recent years and projected to continue, increasing land requirements for biofuels (Royal Society 2008)

– Ethanol: global production tripled (2000-2007), 5.46% share on global gasoline use.

– Biodiesel: global productionincreased eleven-fold (2000-2007), 1.5% share in global diesel fuel use (UNEP 2009)

• Motivations for biofuel production – GHG mitigation, they appeared to be carbon-neutral– Energy security, alternative fuel to meet the demand

• Country production– Ethanol: 90% Brazil (sugarcane), USA (maize)– Biodiesel: 75% EU (France, Germany)– Ethanol and biodiesel based in agricultural feedstocks

(sugarcane, palm oil, jatropha, cassava, rice, wheat..): rapid expansion in Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Malaysia) and Latin America (World Bank 2007)

Page 16: November 18, 2009 CARE Agriculture and Natural Resources Strategy ‘Global Agriculture Review’ June 2010 Julia Berazneva, Louise Buck, Patricia Casal, Phoebe

Support mechanisms:• Economic Incentives: incentives and subsidies (public and

private) made possible the rapid growth of biofuel production - necessary to develop a competitive industry (UNEP 2009)

• Policy support: blending mandates (10-15% ethanol, 2-5% biodiesel) and country targets (17 countries by 2006) (World Bank 2007)

Support at different levels of biofuel production chain. Source: FAO, 2007

Agricultural land use for biofuels

Page 17: November 18, 2009 CARE Agriculture and Natural Resources Strategy ‘Global Agriculture Review’ June 2010 Julia Berazneva, Louise Buck, Patricia Casal, Phoebe

Concerns related to biofuel demand:

• Pressures on food security– New demand for agricultural feedstocks, increasing

competition for natural resources (land, water)– Increase in price of food crops, competition food vs. fuel,

increasing food insecurity and poverty (particularly in urban areas) (FAO 2008)

• Life-cycle GHG emissions and evironmental impacts– Emissions assessment requires LCA, including land-use

change derived emissions and inputs (stardards) (Royal Society 2008)

– LU and intensification affects water quality and availability

– LU/LUC threatens biodiversity and ecosystem services (FAO 2008)

Agricultural land use for biofuels

Page 18: November 18, 2009 CARE Agriculture and Natural Resources Strategy ‘Global Agriculture Review’ June 2010 Julia Berazneva, Louise Buck, Patricia Casal, Phoebe

Agricultural land use for ecosystem services

• Agricultural landscapes provide critical ecosystem services on which people’s livelihood depends:

– Biodiversity conservation– Pest and disease control– Water availability and filtration– Erosion control– Productive soil– Vegetation cover– Carbon sequestration– Recreational opportunities, aesthetic beauty, cultural

identityBy making better use of water and land and providing such environmental services as managing watersheds, agriculture can make growth more environmentally sustainable (UNEP 2009, World Bank 2008)

Page 19: November 18, 2009 CARE Agriculture and Natural Resources Strategy ‘Global Agriculture Review’ June 2010 Julia Berazneva, Louise Buck, Patricia Casal, Phoebe

Natural resources degradation and scarcity

– Livelihood basis for 1.6 billion people (CIFOR 2008)

– Aggregate loss of 13 million ha/year natural forest (CIFOR 2008)

– High local variation in both gross change and rate of change (FAO 2007)

Forest resource degradation and scarcity

Degradation of forest resources is primarily driven by:

• Conversion of forest to agricultural land

• Logging (USD99 billion/year) (CIFOR 2008)

Rate of loss:1st Nigeria 11.1%/year2nd Viet Nam 10%/year

Page 20: November 18, 2009 CARE Agriculture and Natural Resources Strategy ‘Global Agriculture Review’ June 2010 Julia Berazneva, Louise Buck, Patricia Casal, Phoebe

Water and Aquatic Resources- primary resource constraint of future decades

Erosion of global freshwater fisheries primarily driver by decreasing water quality and quantity, driven by agricultural conversion.

Coloured areas to experience water-stress (Vorosmarty et al 2000)

Current water shortages are severe and growing, expected to be greatly exacerbated by GCC.

Driven by:• Agricultural

consumption primary• Changing climate

patterns

Natural resources degradation and scarcity

Page 21: November 18, 2009 CARE Agriculture and Natural Resources Strategy ‘Global Agriculture Review’ June 2010 Julia Berazneva, Louise Buck, Patricia Casal, Phoebe

Losses:• 40% of

agricultural lands experiencing degradation, 16% severely

degraded (FAO 1999)

• Salinization of irrigated soils-

1.5 million ha/year abandoned (Foley et al 2005)

Land degradation by agricultural practices

Drivers of unsustainable agricultural practices:

• Increasing demand from population pressures• Trade liberalization, growing income

disparities, poor governance

Natural resources degradation and scarcity

Page 22: November 18, 2009 CARE Agriculture and Natural Resources Strategy ‘Global Agriculture Review’ June 2010 Julia Berazneva, Louise Buck, Patricia Casal, Phoebe

Biodiversity

Key drivers:• Land conversion from natural forest,

which also impact aquatic systems (Sala et al 2008)

• Exacerbated by population pressures and global climate change

• Ecosystem functioning and the provision ES

• Provision of non-farm food sources

• Source of new genetic material for crop cultivars- major losses anticipated (CGIAR 2009) Biodiversity change scenarios to 2100 (Sala et al 2008)

Natural resources degradation and scarcity

Page 23: November 18, 2009 CARE Agriculture and Natural Resources Strategy ‘Global Agriculture Review’ June 2010 Julia Berazneva, Louise Buck, Patricia Casal, Phoebe

Climate change

• “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal” (IPCC 2007).

• Climate change increases risk and vulnerability and undermines human resilience. Distribution of climate change effects is uneven across time and space but developing countries and poor people are disproportionately affected.

Main consequences:– Higher average temperatures, changing rainfall

patterns, decreasing water availability and water quality, rising sea levels, species extinction

– Increase in variability and unpredictability of extreme weather events

– Resulting impacts on agricultural prices, production and consumption

– Impacts on per capital calorie consumption and child malnutrition

Page 24: November 18, 2009 CARE Agriculture and Natural Resources Strategy ‘Global Agriculture Review’ June 2010 Julia Berazneva, Louise Buck, Patricia Casal, Phoebe

2°C temperature

rise above pre-industrial levels

means 1 to 2 billion more

people suffering from increased

water stress and 100 to 400

million more people at risk of

hunger (WDR 2010).

– Increase in the number of people affected by natural disasters and in the scale of economic damage– Increased migration and displacement

Climate change

Page 25: November 18, 2009 CARE Agriculture and Natural Resources Strategy ‘Global Agriculture Review’ June 2010 Julia Berazneva, Louise Buck, Patricia Casal, Phoebe

HIV/AIDS prevalence

Estimated adult HIV prevalence for countries (2007)Source: UNAIDS, 2008

In sub-Saharan Africa, HIV is depleting the region of its food producers and farmers, decimating the agricultural labour force for generations to come.

Page 26: November 18, 2009 CARE Agriculture and Natural Resources Strategy ‘Global Agriculture Review’ June 2010 Julia Berazneva, Louise Buck, Patricia Casal, Phoebe

HIV/AIDS prevalence

Key facts:• HIV/AIDS threats rural development: over two

thirds of the population of the 25 most-affected countries live in rural areas. AIDS mostly affects the productive age group (15-50 years). The loss of productive members affects household capacity to produce and buy food in those comunities.

• The pandemic is shifting from urban to rural areas: today, 95% of people living with, and dying of, HIV/AIDS are in developing countries. The overwhelming majority are the rural poor, and among them women figure disproportionately.

• Most of the response to the epidemic has come from the health sector. However, HIV/AIDS is more than a health issue, up to 80% of the people in most affected countries depend on agriculture for their subsistence. The agricultural sector cannot continue with “business as usual”, a new focus on agricultual responses is needed (FAO, 2006a).

Page 27: November 18, 2009 CARE Agriculture and Natural Resources Strategy ‘Global Agriculture Review’ June 2010 Julia Berazneva, Louise Buck, Patricia Casal, Phoebe

Impacts of HIV/AIDS• The consequences of HIV/AIDS contribute to making

the rural poor more vulnerable to infection: poverty, food insecurity, malnutrition, reduced labour force and loss of local knowledge.

• The agricultural sector has a critical role to play in breaking this cycle. Through actions that support sustainable agriculture and rural development, CARE has an opportunity to contribute preventing and mitigating the impacts of HIV/AIDS (FAO 2006a).

• HIV/AIDS exacerbates gender-based differences in access to resources and social exclusion. Women’s productive activities decrease due to their role as care providers, as well as their contribution to household income. Increased need for cash income sometimes results in sex work. Increase in gender inequality results in a decrease in access to land, credit and knowledge, for women in general and, in particular for widows (FAO-Dimitra 2005, FAO 2006b).

HIV/AIDS prevalence

Page 28: November 18, 2009 CARE Agriculture and Natural Resources Strategy ‘Global Agriculture Review’ June 2010 Julia Berazneva, Louise Buck, Patricia Casal, Phoebe

Some strategies FAO is working on that represent opportunities for CARE to engage in and collaborate:

• Supporting diversity, gender equality and human rights,

• Reducing the stigma that accompanies HIV/AIDS, and• Building partnerships and developing creative

synergies with other sectors, and wrking with other stakeholders.

• Helping develop formal and informal institutions (schools, extension services, …) to preserve local knowledge and transmit it across generations.

• Participating in the development and implementation of labour saving technologies and practices, such as low-input agriculture, tools, improved seed varieties, intercropping, minimum tillage, access to potable water, fuel-efficient stoves that can free women for productive activities, etc.

HIV/AIDS prevalence

Page 29: November 18, 2009 CARE Agriculture and Natural Resources Strategy ‘Global Agriculture Review’ June 2010 Julia Berazneva, Louise Buck, Patricia Casal, Phoebe

• Advances in ICTs are coming about through the merging of information technologies (mainly computer systems) and communication technologies (particularly cell phones).

• Smallholder farmers in developing countries, as well as researchers and extension workers, can benefit from current ICTs: access market information; collect data on crop production, environment, farming techniques, etc; access geographic information and share knowledge(Ballantyne, Maru and Porcari, 2009).

• For small, resource poor farmers and producers in developing countries, applications of ICTs have not yet become mainstream due to low economic returns from agriculture and lack of access to affordable technology (CGIAR Science Forum, 2009).

• Mobile phone has revolutionized the lives of millions of urban and rural poor by connecting and involving them in viable economic activities (Samii, 2010).

Advances in InformationCommunication Technology (ICT)

Page 30: November 18, 2009 CARE Agriculture and Natural Resources Strategy ‘Global Agriculture Review’ June 2010 Julia Berazneva, Louise Buck, Patricia Casal, Phoebe

• Mobile subscribers in Africa have reached 448.1 million (54% of the total population) and are expected to reach 561 million by 2012. 

• In Africa, mobile phones allow those excluded from telecommunications infrastructure to take an active part in improving their livelihoods due to the affordable pricing schemes of mobile services. This social and economic inclusion has led to the willingness of poor rural households to spend 4-8% of their income on mobile telephony.

• Global Information Technology Report 2008-2009 (World Economic Forum to INSEAD): "mobile telecommunications has had a positive disruptive impact on life in many developing economies, especially in rural areas." 

• Mobile telephony is providing poor rural people with a point of contact allowing them to take part in the economic system and enter in the job market.

Advances in InformationCommunication Technology (ICT)

Page 31: November 18, 2009 CARE Agriculture and Natural Resources Strategy ‘Global Agriculture Review’ June 2010 Julia Berazneva, Louise Buck, Patricia Casal, Phoebe

References

1. INCREASING POPULATION AND FOOD DISTRIBUTION

Cassman, K., & Wood, S. (2005). Cultivated systems. Ecosystems and human well being, millennium ecosystem assessment (cur rent state and trends), vol. 1, ch. 26. Washington, DC: Island Press.

Evans, A. (2008). Rising Food Prices: Drivers and Implications for Development. Center on International Cooperation, New York University. Chatham House Food Supply Project. April 2008.

Food & Agricultural Organisation of the United Nations [FAO] (2006). World agriculture: Towards 2030/2050. Interim report Global Perspective Studies Unit. Prospects for food, nutrition, agriculture and major commodity groups. FAO, Rome, June 2006.

Godfray, Beddington, J. R., Crute, I. R., Haddad, L., Lawrence, D., Muir, J. F., Pretty, J., Robinson, S., Thomas, S. M., and Toulmin, C. (2010). Food security: The challenge of feeding 9 billion people. Science, 327(5967):812-818.

Hazell, P., and S. Wood (2007). Drivers of Change in Global Agriculture. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 363: 495-515.

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment [MEA] (2005). Ecosystems and well-being. Washington, DC: Island Press.

United Nations Millennium Project (2005). Halving hunger: It can be done. UN Task Force on Hunger. Available at: http://www.unmillenniumproject.org/repor ts/tf_hunger.htm. Accessed February 2010.

von Braun, J. 2005. The world food situation: An overview. Prepared for CGIAR Annual General Meeting, Marrakech, Morocco, December 6, 2005.

Page 32: November 18, 2009 CARE Agriculture and Natural Resources Strategy ‘Global Agriculture Review’ June 2010 Julia Berazneva, Louise Buck, Patricia Casal, Phoebe

2. GLOBALIZATION OF AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SYSTEMS

World Bank (2008). World Development Report 2008: Agriculture for Development, World Bank, Washington

von Braun, J. & Díaz-Bonilla, E. (2008). Globalization of Agriculture and Food: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Implications. In: J. Von Braun and E. Díaz-Bonilla (Eds.) Globalization of food and agriculture and the poor. Issue briefs, no.52. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Food & Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [FAO] (2009). The State of Food and Agriculture 2008: Livestock in the balance, Part II: World food and agriculture in review. FAO, Rome, Italy.

Food & Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [FAO] (2003). Trade Reforms and Food Security: Conceptualizing the Linkages, FAO, Rome, Italy

References

Page 33: November 18, 2009 CARE Agriculture and Natural Resources Strategy ‘Global Agriculture Review’ June 2010 Julia Berazneva, Louise Buck, Patricia Casal, Phoebe

3. URBANIZATION AND CHANGING CONSUMER PREFERENCES

Babinard, J. & Pinstrup-Andersen, P. (2001). Nutrition. In: E. Diaz-Bonilla and S. Robinson, Shaping Globalization for Poverty Alleviation and Food Security. Focus 8, IFPRI Policy Brief 5. Washington, DC: IFPRI.

Caballero B. & Popkin, B.M. (eds.) (2002). The Nutrition Transition: Diet and Disease in the Developing World. London: Academic Press

Díaz-Bonilla, E. & Robinson, S. (2001). Shaping globalization for poverty alleviation and food security. Washington, D.C.: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Flavin, C. & Gardner, G. (2006). China, India, and the new world order. In: State of the World 2006: Special Focus: China and India. Washington, D.C.: Worldwatch Institute, pp 3-23

Halweil, B. & Nierenberg, D. (2008). Meat and seafood: the global diet’s most costly ingredients. In: G.T. Gardner, & , T. Prugh. State of the world 2008: Innovations for a sustainable economy. Wahshington, D.C.: Worldwatch Institute

Korten, D.C. (2001). Corporate Colonialism, Part III. In: When Corporations Rule the World, 2nd edition, pp. 121-174. Bloomfield, Connecticut: Kumarian Press, Inc.

Hawkes, C. (2008). Globalization of Agrifood Systems and the Nutrition Transition, In: J. von Braun, and E. Diaz-Bonilla (Eds.), Globalization of Food and Agriculture and the Poor, pp. 215-244. Delhi: Oxford University Press

International Conference of Agricultural Economists [IAAE] (2006). 26th IAAE Conference Papers: Contributions of Agricultural Economics to Critical Policy Issues. Queensland (Australia), 12-18 August 2006

Madeley, J. (1999). Association of world council of churches related development organisations in Europe. Trade and the hungry how international trade is causing hunger. Brussels: APRODEV

References

Page 34: November 18, 2009 CARE Agriculture and Natural Resources Strategy ‘Global Agriculture Review’ June 2010 Julia Berazneva, Louise Buck, Patricia Casal, Phoebe

3. URBANIZATION AND CHANGING CONSUMER PREFERENCES

Pinstrup-Andersen, P. (2006). Agricultural Research and Policy for Better Health and Nutrition in Developing Countries: A Food Systems Approach. In: K. Otsuka and K. Kalirajan (Eds.) Contributions of Agricultural Economics to Critical Policy Issues, pp. 187-198. Invited Panel paper presented at the 26th Conference of the IAAE in Queensland Australia 2006.

Mendez, M.A. & Popkin, B.M. (2004). Globalization, Urbanization and Nutritional Change in the Developing World. Electronic Journal of Agricultural and Development Economics (eJADE),1(2): 220-241. Available from: http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/12001

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [FAO] (2005). The State of Food and Agriculture 2005. Agriculture Trade and Poverty: Can trade work for the poor?. FAO, Rome.

Reardon, T., Timmer, C.P, Barrett, C.B. & Berdegué, J. (2003). The rise of supermarkets in africa, asia, and latin america. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 85(5):1140-6.

Reardon, T. and Barrett, C.B. (2000). Agroindustrialization, Globalization, and International Development: An Overview of Issues, Patterns, and Determinants. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 23(2): 195-205.

von Braun, J. & Díaz-Bonilla, E. (2008), Globalization of food and agriculture and the poor. Issue briefs, no.52. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Worldwatch Institute (2007). State of the world 2007: Our urban future.

Worldwatch Institute (2004). State of the world 2004: Progress towards a sustainable society. London: Earthscan

References

Page 35: November 18, 2009 CARE Agriculture and Natural Resources Strategy ‘Global Agriculture Review’ June 2010 Julia Berazneva, Louise Buck, Patricia Casal, Phoebe

4. NATURAL RESOURCE SCARCITY

CIFOR (2008). CIFOR’s Strategy 2008-2018: Making a Difference for Forests and People. Centre for International Forestry Research.

CGIAR (2009). Climate, agriculture and food security: A strategy for change. The Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research.

Sala, OE, F. Stuart Chapin, III, Juan J. Armesto, Eric Berlow, Janine Bloomfield, Rodolfo Dirzo, Elisabeth Huber-Sanwald, Laura F. Huenneke, Robert B. Jackson, Ann Kinzig, Rik Leemans, David M. Lodge, Harold A. Mooney, Martín Oesterheld, N. LeRoy Poff, Martin T. Sykes, Brian H. Walker, Marilyn Walker, and Diana H. Wall (2000). Global biodiversity Scenarios for the Year 2100. Science. Volume 287: Pp. 1770- 1774.

Falkenmark, M. and Rockstrom, J. (2006) The new Blue and green Water Paradigm: Breaking New Ground for Water Resource Planning and Management. Journal of Water Resource Planning and Management.

FAO (1999). The Future of Our land: Facing the Challenge. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations in collaboration with the United Nations Environment Programme. Rome, Italy.

Foley, JA, Ruth DeFries, Gregory P. Asner, Carol Barford, Gordon Bonan, Stephen R. Carpenter, F. Stuart Chapin, Michael T. Coe, Gretchen C. Daily, Holly K. Gibbs, Joseph H. Helkowski, Tracey Holloway, Erica A. Howard, Christopher J. Kucharik, Chad Monfreda, Jonathan A. Patz, I. Colin Prentice, Navin Ramankutty, and Peter K. Snyder (2005). Global Consequences of Land Use. Science 309: 570-574.

Oki, T. and Kanae, S. (2006) Global Hydrological Cycles and World Water Resources. Science 313: 1068- 1072.

References

Page 36: November 18, 2009 CARE Agriculture and Natural Resources Strategy ‘Global Agriculture Review’ June 2010 Julia Berazneva, Louise Buck, Patricia Casal, Phoebe

5. AGRICULTURAL LAND USE FOR NON-FOOD PRODUCTS AND SERVICES

Food & Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [FAO] (2008). The State of Food and Agriculture 2008. Biofuels: prospects, risks and opportunities. FAO, Rome, Italy.

Milder, J.C., S.A. Shames, S.J. Scherr, and J.A. McNeely (2008). Biofuels and ecoagriculture: Can bioenergy production enhance landscape-scale ecosystem conservation and rural livelihoods?. International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability, 6:105-121.

Spiertz, J.H.J., and F. Ewert (2009). Crop production and resource use to meet the growing demand for food, feed and fuel: Opportunities and constraints. Wageningen Journal of Life Sciences, 56:281-300.

The Royal Society (2009). Reaping the Benefits. Science and the Sustainable Intensification of Global Agriculture. The Royal Society, London.

The Royal Society (2008). Sustainable Biofuels: Prospects and Challenges. The Royal Society, London.

United Nations Environment Programme [UNEP] (2009). Towards Sustainable Production and Use of Resources: Assessing Biofuels. UNEP, Paris.

United Nations Environment Programme [UNEP] (2009). Nellemann, C., MacDevette, M., Manders, T., Eickhout, B., Svihus, B., Prins, A. G., Kaltenborn, B. P. (Eds). The environmental food crisis: The environment role in averting future food crises. A UNEP rapid response assessment. United Nations Environment Programme, GRID-Arendal

World Bank (2008). World Development Report 2008: Agriculture and Development. World Bank, Washington, D.C., London.

References

Page 37: November 18, 2009 CARE Agriculture and Natural Resources Strategy ‘Global Agriculture Review’ June 2010 Julia Berazneva, Louise Buck, Patricia Casal, Phoebe

6. CLIMATE CHANGE

CARE International, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, and Maplecroft (2008). Humanitarian Implications of Climate Change: Mapping Emerging Trends and Risk Hotspots for Humanitarian Actors. CARE International.

Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (2009). Climate, Agriculture and Food Security: A Strategy for Change

Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (2007). Global climate change: Can agriculture cope?

International Food Policy Research Institute [IFPRI] (2009). Climate change: Impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation. Washington, D.C.: IFPRI

Intergovernmenta Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] (2007). Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers.

Warner K, Ehrhart C, de Sherbinin A, Adamo S, Chai-Onn T (2009) In search of shelter: mapping the effects of climate change on human migration and displacement. United Nations University, Columbia University, CARE International, UNHCR, and the World Bank

Wold Bank (2010). World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change, Chapter 3: Managing land and water to feed nine billion people and protect natural systems

References

Page 38: November 18, 2009 CARE Agriculture and Natural Resources Strategy ‘Global Agriculture Review’ June 2010 Julia Berazneva, Louise Buck, Patricia Casal, Phoebe

10. HIV/AIDS PREVALENCE

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)-Dimitra/CTA Workshop. 2005. Rural women, dynamisation of networs and the fight against HIV/AIDS in rural areas. Accesible at: http://www.fao.org/hivaids/publications/DIMITRA_Atelier05_EN.pdf

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). 2006a. HIV/AIDS and Food Security. Accesible at: http://www.fao.org/hivaids/

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). 2006b. HIV/AIDS, food security and rural livelihoods. A leaflet on impacts, implications and agriculture sector responses. Accesble at: http://www.fao.org/hivaids/publications/hivaids.pdf

The Global coalition on Women and AIDS (GCWA). 2010. Accesible at: http://www.womenandaids.net

Hlanze, Z., Gama, T. and Mondlane, S. 2005. The impact of HIV/AIDS and drough on local knowledge systems for agrobiodiversity and food security. LinKS project, gender, biodiversity and local knowledge systems for food security, Report No. 50. FAO-LinKS Swaziland. Available at: http://www.fao.org/sd/dim_pe1/pe1_060702_en.htm

Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). 2008. Report on the global AIDS epidemic.

Accesible at: http://www.unaids.org/en/KnowledgeCentre/HIVData/GlobalReport/2008/

References