November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education1 Student Demographic Projections, Public Policy Questions and the Impact on Higher

November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education

1

Student Demographic Student Demographic Projections, Public Projections, Public

Policy Questions and the Policy Questions and the Impact on Higher Impact on Higher

EducationEducationKnowing who is (and is not) knocking at the Knowing who is (and is not) knocking at the college doorcollege door

Becky Brodigan NEAIR Annual MeetingMiddlebury College November, 2006


2

“These findings can be very helpful in helping shape public policy. Many folks may not like the implications of these findings, but they are the facts, and we ignore them at our peril.”

David Longenecker, Executive Director, WICHE, The Chronicle of Higher Education 2/24/2006


3

IS this much ado about nothing or do we ignore at our peril? You decide Demographic changes are one

piece of a complex puzzle

Income and gender are two others that we will talk about that haven’t received much attention or analysis


4

Things to think about today… What is the environment within which we

operate? What is happening in our state and region? Where do our students come from (at our

institutions)? Where do students from our state go? Where do non-residents come from to our

schools? Will these changes impact career colleges,

community colleges, state colleges, public flagships and different varieties of privates differently?


5

Things to think about today…Context… What’s happening to ALL of

education? NCLB (N$LB) –

states under attack, threats to pull back federal funding

Pressure to allow students to transfer (what about those who can’t – are they left behind)

Effects spilling over into higher education policy


6

The Effects of Accountability Movements and Efforts like NCLB Testing at the federal and

collegiate level (CLA)? New definitions of “college

material?” During the next two decades will

access and the number of students going to college expand or will opportunities contract?


7

Minority School Enrollments

36% to 50%

21% to 35%

10% to 20%

More than 50%

Less than 10%

Source: U.S. Department of Education


8

Some sobering facts about schools Public secondary education is resegregating at accelerating rates, despite the growing minority student population across the country.

Nationwide 70% of Black students attend

minority majority schools, White students are the most

segregated group, they typically attend schools where less than 20 percent of students are from other racial and ethnic groups.


9

Some sobering facts about schools Minority schools are more highly correlated with high poverty schools; tend to have lower parental

participation; maintain fewer resources; and have less experienced

classroom teachers with higher turnover than white schools.

Source: André Bell, MRO, The College Board


10

Demographic changes

First talked about in the late 70’s -- higher education ignored

Recently, College Board has been the leading voice in the discussion on the national level http://www.collegeboard.com/highered/de/

index.html

Moody’s recently published a paper


11

What will we look at? High School Graduation

Projections through 2018 by race by region

College Going Rates by Race, Gender and SES

Current Enrollment Patterns by State


12

What will we look at? Enrollment Patterns by

Race and Gender Migration Data Public Policy Issues –

recent research Your part -- What do we

think this all means?


13

Policy Related Implications for Higher Education and State Policy Makers What can change these projections?

Are there likely to be improvements or decreases in graduation rates by any groups?

In the Northeast, maintaining market share will lead to declines in enrollment for individual institutions. Will enrollment shift sectors? How will legislatures respond to theses shifts?


14

Policy Related Implications for Higher Education and State Policy Makers What are the implications for tax

revenues and per capita income if the percent of college graduates decreases?

Will new populations of students graduate in the same patterns as their predecessors? (Majors, time to degree, students and sports?)

Do our faculty and staff reflect mirror the new demographics? How will that affect our ability to recruit and retain students?


15

Challenges of the Perfect Demographic Storm How can we reduce barriers to college

access for low-income and minority students? Improve K-12 preparation Admission and financial aid policies and processes Improve Retention

If we succeed, how will we find adequate funding (Federal, State, Institutional) to support increasing financial need?


16

WICHE Projections

Public and Non-public high school graduation data since 1960

Actual from 87-88 through 01-02 Projections from 01-02 to 2017-18 Included details descriptions and

formulas of the ‘aging’ process as well as detailed notes by state


17

WICHE Data Historical and projection tables for public schools with total births,

public enrollments by grade, and high school graduates, including progression ratios;

Historical and projection tables for each racial/ethnic group with births, public enrollments by grade, and high school graduates, including progression ratios;

Historical and projection tables for nonpublic schools in each state with total births, nonpublic enrollments by grade, and high school graduates, including progression ratios;

Detailed notes for each state explaining the sources of the historical data that underlie the projections and the methods used to generate the projections.

Historical and projection tables for income brackets in each state with public enrollments by grade and high school graduates, including progression ratios.

Projections extend to the year 2017-18. Birth data are from the National Center for Health Statistics’ Monthly Vital Statistics reports providing final birth data for each year. Enrollment and graduate data are collected primarily from the state education agencies. When state data were incomplete, other sources were used and are detailed in the notes for each state.


18

Number of Public High School Graduates Peaks and Valleys …

2,000,0002,100,0002,200,0002,300,0002,400,0002,500,0002,600,0002,700,0002,800,0002,900,0003,000,000

Source: WICHE/The College Board


19

College 'bubble' is about to burst (Philadelphia Inquirer – 7/31/2006) Administrators at local private institutions

as diverse as Chestnut Hill College, Drexel University, St. Joseph's University, and two-year Harcum College in Bryn Mawr say they already are preparing for the coming shortage. In an effort to maintain the dramatic enrollment gains they've made, many are extending their recruiting efforts to faster-growing states, as well as adopting new academic programs to appeal to a wider pool of students.


20

Enrollment at colleges and universities: 1947 to 2004 (Census Bureau)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

1947

1956

1959

1962

1965

1968

1971

1974

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

Note: Enrollment is in thousands


21

Projections of HS Graduates

in the United States

1%6%

14% 15%

65%

1%

8%13%

22%

56%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

Native American Asian American Black Hispanic White


22


United States: 2006-07 to 2017-18

3,454

74,586

-10,471

3,460

-97,528

228,994

(150,000)

(100,000)

(50,000)

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

NativeAmerican

AsianAmerican

AfricanAmerican

Hispanic White Private


23

Transition and Completion Measures

from High School to College75%

64%

31%

57%49%

55%

23%

38%

53% 52%

27%

45%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Graduate from HighSchool on Time (2001)

Recent High School Graduates that GoDirectly to College

(2001)

Three-Year GraduationRates of Associates

Students (2002)

Six-Year GraduationRates of Bachelor's

Students (2002)

White African American Hispanic


24

Tomás Rivera Study18-24 year old California Latinos 400 person sample 200 who had never attended college

and 200 who had attended college Interviews were in English and/or

Spanish Sample representative of Latinos in US

except over 75% were HS graduates Median income was $25,000 to $35,000 83% US born 72% had at least one foreign born

parent


25

Tomás Rivera Study18-24 year old California Latinos 98% said it was important to have a

college education 38% did not feel the benefits

outweighed the costs Not being able to work and incurring

debt were opportunity costs associated with attending college


26

Tomás Rivera Study18-24 year old California Latinos Over 50% erroneously thought you had to

be a US citizen to apply for financial aid Few respondents could accurately

estimate the cost of attending either UC or Cal State Univ – most overestimated the cost

There is a lack for familiarity with Cal Grants and federal grants


27

Tomás Rivera Study18-24 year old California Latinos Almost 25% thought loan availability

was contingent on grades 30% would use a commercial bank

as the source of their loan (Aspire)

“Perceptions of College Financial Aid Among California Latino Youth”


28

Implications

Explaining the benefits of higher education will continue to be a challenge, especially when recruiting students with no family history

Opportunity costs are an impediment to many families

Cost perceptions will continue to hamper colleges ability to recruit

Need to better explain financial aid eligibility


29

White, Non-Hispanic Degree Attainment

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Associates Bachelors Masters PhD

1981 1985 1990 1995 2003


30

PhD’s Awarded by Race

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Black, non-Hispanic Hispanic Asian or PacificIslander

AmericanIndian/ Alaskan Native

1981 1985 1990 1995 2003


31

Master’s Degrees Awarded by Race

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%



1981 1985 1990 1995 2003


32

Bachelor’s Degrees Awarded by Race

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%



1981 1985 1990 1995 2003


33

Associate’s Degrees Awarded by Race

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%



1981 1985 1990 1995 2003


34

PhD’s Awarded by Race

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Black, non-Hispanic

Hispanic Asian or PacificIslander

AmericanIndian/ Alaskan

Native

Nonresidentalien

1981 1985 1990 1995 2003


35

College Continuation Rates

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2004White Black Hispanic


36

Fall 2005 Freshmen Enrollment by Race – Four-Year Colleges (CIRP)14%

11%

7%

11%

6%5%

9%

7%

14%

7%

9%

14%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Black Latino Asian American

Public 4 year Private 4 year Public Univ Private Univ


37

NE HS Graduates: Changes in actual numbers from 2006

to 20184,407

575

5,800

492

-10,829

-17,842(18,000)

(15,000)

(12,000)

(9,000)

(6,000)

(3,000)

0

3,000

6,000

White AsianAmerican

AfricanAmerican

Hispanic NativeAmerican

Overall


38

Northeast HS Graduates: Changes in actual numbers from 2006-07 to 2017-18

521

23,088

-10,026

11,852

-68,527

-7,825

(75,000)

(50,000)

(25,000)

0

25,000

NativeAmerican

AsianAmerican

AfricanAmerican



39

Changes in HS Graduates in the Northeast: 2006-07 to 2017-2018

6%

15%9%

71%

10%14% 12%

63%

.3% .4%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

NativeAmerican

AsianAmerican

Black Hispanic White

20072018


40

HS Graduates in New England

010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000

100,000110,000120,000

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

Native American Asian American African American Hispanic White, Non-Hispanic

111,000 97,000


41

SAT Takers by Race/Ethnicity

1% 5% 5%

86%

4%1%10% 13%

4%

73%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

NativeAmerican

AsianAmerican

Hispanic White Other

New England US


42

Participation by Low-income All New England states above the national average of 25%

Lowest rates are in the south and west


43

HS Graduates in Massachusetts

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

Native American Asian American African American Hispanic White

40,09347,000


44

Projections of HS Graduates in Vermont: 2006-07 to 2017-18

01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-

12

2012-13

2013-14

2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

Students of Color White Private Total


45

HS Graduates in NH: 2006-07 to 2017-18

32

661

226

597

-1984

-468

(2,500)

(2,000)

(1,500)

(1,000)

(500)

0

500

1,000

NativeAmerican

AsianAmerican

Black Hispanic White Total


46

HS Graduates in Massachusetts:

2006-07 to 2017-18271

1,814

-443

906

-6,885(8,000)

(6,000)

(4,000)

(2,000)

0

2,000

4,000

NativeAmerican

AsianAmerican

Black Hispanic White


47

HS Graduates in Connecticut

4%

11% 10%

75%

8%12%

15%

65%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Asian American African American Hispanic White

2006-07 2017-18


48

HS Graduates in NJ: 2006-07 to 2017-18

-136

9,165

-1,460

6,724

-7,664

6,629

(10,000)(8,000)(6,000)(4,000)(2,000)

02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,000

NativeAmerican

AsianAmerican

Black Hispanic White Total


49

HS Graduates in Maryland: 2006-07 to 2017-18

161

2,2771,254

5,564

-6,132

983

(8,000)

(6,000)

(4,000)

(2,000)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

NativeAmerican

AsianAmerican

Black Hispanic White Private


50

HS Graduates in Pennsylvania:

2006-07 to 2017-18136

1,837

-1,168

2,498

-16,242

-2,589

(20,000)

(16,000)

(12,000)

(8,000)

(4,000)

0

4,000

NativeAmerican

AsianAmerican

Black Hispanic White Private


51

Pennsylvania High School Graduates

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Native American Asian American Black, Non-Hispanic

Hispanic

2006-07 2011-12 2017-18

+1,837

+2,498

-1,168

+136

White -16,242


52

New York High School Graduates

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Native American Asian American Black, Non-Hispanic

Hispanic

2006-07 2011-12 2017-18

+7,235+489

-4,200

+150

White -17,852


53

Changes in HS Graduates in New York

0%

8%15% 12%

65%

1%

14% 13% 14%

60%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

NativeAmerican

AsianAmerican

Black, Non-Hispanic

Hispanic White

2006-07 2017-2018


54

College Continuation Rates in the Northeast

68% 63% 63% 61% 59% 59%55%

43%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

New

York

Massach

usett

s

New

Jerse

y

Conn

ectic

ut

Penn

sylva

nia

Maryla

nd

New

Ham

pshire

Verm

ont


55

Enrollment at Colleges in NY

NY, 81.8%

CA, 1.1%Inter, 1.5%

CT, 1.5%Mass, 1.6%

PA, 1.7%

NJ, 3.6%

All Other, 7.2%

Texas, 0.4%


56

Enrollment at Colleges in Pennsylvania

PA, 77.8%

CA, 0.5%Mass, 0.7%

Ohio, 1.6%

Inter, 1.1%

NY, 3.6%

NJ, 6.6%

TX, 0.2%All other, 7.8%


57

Enrollment at Colleges in Maryland

MD, 79.0%

VA, 1.3%DC, 1.4%

INTER, 1.8%NY, 2.5%

PA, 3.1%

NJ, 3.1% CA, 0.7%

TX, 0.4%


58

Enrollment at Colleges in New Jersey

NJ, 92.1%

All other, 2.6%

TX, 0.1%

CA, 0.3%

INTER, 1.0%PA, 1.1%

NY, 2.8%


59

Enrollment at Colleges in Connecticut

CT, 63.9%

MD, 0.8% ME, 0.8%

TX, 0.5%

All other, 5.3%

PA, 1.4%

Inter, 1.4%CA, 1.6%

NJ, 5.3%

MA, 7.2%

NY, 10.4%

RI, 1.4% NH, 1.0%


60

Enrollment at Colleges in New Hampshire

NH, 53.3%

All other, 9.7%

NJ, 1.8%

VT, 2.9%NY, 3.6%

Maine, 4.2%

CT, 5.3%

MA, 17.9%

CA, 0.9%TX, 0.4%


61

Enrollment at Colleges in Massachusetts

MA, 62.3%

All other, 9.7%

PA, 1.5%VT, 0.7%

CA, 2.3%NH, 2.6%

Inter, 2.8%

NJ, 3.3%

CT, 4.7%

NY, 6.6%

RI, 1.6%

ME, 1.5%


62

Enrollment at Colleges in Vermont

VT, 33.0%

TX, 0.3%

All other, 11.4%ME, 4.4%

NJ, 4.7%

NH, 6.7%

CT, 7.6%

NY, 11.6%

MA, 16.0%

PA, 2.7%

CA, 1.6%


63

Projections of HS Graduates in the West

-67

19,344

-3,694

-49,615

50,157

-3,760

46,397

79,952

(60,000)

(40,000)

(20,000)

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

NativeAmerican

AsianAmerican

AfricanAmerican

Hispanic White Public Private Total


64

College Continuation Rates in the West48% 47% 46% 44% 43%

39%

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%


65

Emigration of College Students

18%8%

11%11%

18%32%

37%42%42%

46%48%

57%

43%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

US

California

Arizona

Texas

NY

Massachusetts

MD

Rhode Island

Maine

NJ

Connecticut

New Hampshire

Vermont


66

Percent of Freshmen from Out-of-State

20%8%8%

9%

25%25%

34%39%

40%51%

67%70%

25%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

US

Texas

California

NJ

Arizona

NY

MD

Maine

Connecticut

Massachusetts

New Hampshire

Rhode Island

Vermont


67


in the South

4,340

24,6358,619

128,372

-25,291

12,773

(40,000)

(20,000)

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

NativeAmerican

AsianAmerican

AfricanAmerican



68

College Continuation Rates in the South

64%61%

55% 55% 54% 52%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Georgia Alabama Nevada Louisiana Florida Texas


69

Don’t mess with Texas! Where do their HS Graduates go to College?

Texas, 92.1%

Plains, 0.7%

MidEast, 0.6%

Rocky, 0.6%Great Lakes, 0.6%

Farwest, 0.6%

NE, 0.4%

Rest of Southwest,

1.9%

Southeast, 2.6%


70

Projections of HS Graduates in the Midwest: 2006-07 to

2017-2018

456

14,223

-2,180

38,242

-56,083

-2,675

(60,000)

(50,000)

(40,000)

(30,000)

(20,000)

(10,000)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

NativeAmerican

Asian American AfricanAmerican



71

What about gender issues?


72

College going rates: Where are the boys? Males outnumber female through

age 30 Males account for less than 50% of

high school graduates Males account for 47% of college

freshmen Continuation rates vary by gender

– men around 59% and women 72%


73

SAT Takers by Gender

45% 46%

54% 54%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

US New England

Men Women


74

College continuation rates

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

MalesFemales


75

College Continuation Rates

by Gender and Race59% 60%

66%64%

76%

66%

46%

74%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

White Black Asian American Latino

Men Women


76

Fall 2005 Freshmen by Gender by Institution Type

51% 48%44% 43% 41%

38%

52%56% 57% 59%

62%

49%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

VS PrivateUniversities

VS PublicUniv.

PublicColleges

PrivateColleges

Black Colleges Catholic

Men Women


77

Fall 2005 Freshmen by Gender and Region

45% 47%44% 45%

53%56% 55%55%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Eastern Midwestern Southern Western

Men Women


78

Fall 2005 Freshmen by Gender by Income

9%

14%

17%

12%

15%17% 17%

15%

18%

14% 15% 16%

12%11%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Less than20

20 to 40 40 to 60 60 to 75 75 to 100 100 to 150 150 andabove

Men Women


79

Fall 2005 Freshmen Average HS Grades by

Gender

19%21% 21%

26%

21%

27%

39%

26%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

A or A+ A- B+ B or lower

Men Women


80

NE Enrollment Patterns: Full-Time

45% 44% 45% 45% 46% 48% 45% 45%

55% 56% 55% 55% 54% 52% 55% 55%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Conn

ectic

ut

Main

eMass

NH RI

Verm

ont

Total

Total

US

Men Women


81

NE Enrollment Patterns: Part-Time

62%68%

62% 63% 63% 66% 63%59%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

Conn

ectic

ut

Main

eMass

NH RI

Verm

ont

Total

Total

US

Men Women


82

Enrollment at Ivy League

58%51% 50% 52%

46%44%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Intern

ation

al

African

American

Native

American

Asian A

merican

Hispan

icWhit

e

Men Women


83

Doctoral (minus technical

universities) 62%

56% 52%57%

52%44%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%

Intern

ation

al

African

American

Native

American

Asian A

merican

Hispan

icWhit

e

Men Women


84

Enrollment at Private Liberal Arts Colleges56% 59% 59%

65%61%

57% 58%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Intern

ation

al

African

American

Native

American

Asian A

merican

Hispan

icWhit

eTota

l

Men Women


85

Enrollment at Public Research Universities

45%

62%58%

51%57%

52%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Intern

ation

al

African

American

Native

American

Asian A

merican

Hispan

icWhit

e

Men Women


86

Public Master’s Universities

52%

63% 61%54%

60% 57% 58%

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%

Intern

ation

al

Africa

n Ameri

can

Native

Ameri

can

Asian

American

Hispan

icWhit

eTota

l

Men Women


87

Public Liberal Arts Colleges

56% 54%60% 60% 65%

55% 56%

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%

Intern

ation

al

Africa

n Ameri

can

Native

Ameri

can

Asian

American

Hispan

icWhit

eTota

l

Men Women


88

Public General Baccalaureate/Associates

57%64% 63%

55%62%

57% 59%

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%

Intern

ation

al

Africa

n Ameri

can

Native

Ameri

can

Asian

American

Hispan

icWhit

eTota

l

Men Women


89

Public Two-Year Colleges

56%65% 62%

55% 58% 58% 58%

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%

Intern

ation

al

Africa

n Ameri

can

Native

Ameri

can

Asian

American

Hispan

icWhit

eTota

l

Men Women


90

Race by Type of Private College

16%

2%

12%

63%

10%4% 4%

73%

10%

3%

12%

64%

8% 10%7%

60%

0%

15%

30%

45%

60%

75%

African American Asian American Hispanic White

Bachelors/Associates Liberal Arts Masters Universities


91

Race by Type of Public College

17%

3%

15%

58%

15%

3%

15%

60%

14%

6%11%

66%

9% 8% 8%

68%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

African American Asian American Hispanic White

Bachelors/ Associates Public LA Public Masters Research


92

For Profit Colleges

42%

32%38%

45%39% 41%

58%

68%62%

55%61% 59%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

International AfricanAmerican

NativeAmerican

AsianAmerican

Hispanic White

Men Women


93

For Profit Colleges

Caucasian39%

African American

19%

Hispanic17%

Unknown16%

Asian American

4%

International 4%

Native American

1%


94

Percent of Total Undergraduate State AidNot Based on Need, 1982 to 2002


95

Four-Year College &University Enrollment Rates of 1992 HS Graduates by Family Income and Math Test Scores

15%

33%

68%

14%

37%

69%

21%

47%

78%

27%

59%

84%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Lowest Third Middle Third Top Third

Lowest IncomeSecond QuartileThird QuartileHighest Income


96

College Entrance within One-Year of High School Graduation64%

55%52%

13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

White African American Hispanic MaximumDifference

1972 1980 2001

Source: Higher Education and the Color Line, Pg 37.


97

College Entrance within 2.5 years of graduation by SES

78%

43%

27%

51%

88%

63%

36%

52%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Top quartile 25th to 75th Bottom quarter MaximumDifference

1972 1992

Source: Higher Education and the Color Line, pg. 37.


98

Levels of Education for the High School Class of 1992

( by 2000)51%

38%

6%

19%

53%

16%20%

51%

20%17%

33% 35%

6%

35%41%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

No College Some College BA

Native American Hispanic African American Caucasian Asian American


99

Implications for the States – Changes in Personal per

Capita Income70%

37%

52% 49%

30%

-4% -5% -5% -3%-11%-20%

-10%0%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

Massachusetts Texas New York Colorado California

1980 to 2000 2000 to 2020


100

Implications for the States – Personal per Capita Income

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Massachusetts Texas New York Colorado California

2000 2020


101

Percent Changes in Educational Attainment, 2000-2020 Projections:(25-64 Year-Olds)


102

Summary HS graduation projections

in NE going down over all Increases in groups with lower

college continuation rates Increasing in states that do not

export students Will affirmative actions

changes/legal cases stifle enrollment by students of color in states like California and Texas?


103

Summary Male/Female ratios not likely

to improve Colleges in NE going to have

to work harder just to maintain market share – expand marketing efforts and develop new strategies


104

Implications More competition for fewer students in the

North East More expense to attempt to recruit

students from outside the region Will college going rates increase for

different ethnic groups? Are we ready? Will the pressure to maintain/increase

market share lead to a growth in discounting and increase in state and institutional merit aid awards?


105

Demographic Changes Likely to Widen the Access Gap

Next wave of high school graduates will look much different than today

Number of high school graduates increasing Till 2009, falls to 2004 levels in 2014, then

growth will surpass 2008 levels Increases in underrepresented minorities Increases in some areas of country but not

others Rising tuition and fees Federal and State aid

patterns make colleges appear unaffordable Income differences by race/ethnicity will

challenge access for Blacks/Hispanics


106

Growing interest in State Data Bases May Also Affect Enrollment Managers Easier to track institutional

outcomes. Given current linear simplistic

thinking of policy makers, this could disadvantage schools that are less selective.

May see more nuanced definitions of persistence and continuing that may help institutions that attract large numbers of mobile students


107

Summing Up: Moody’s 2006 Higher Ed Outlook Continued higher education participation rate

increases across all demographic groups Heightened competition for students in

demographically vibrant states, as colleges & universities seek to expand their traditional markets

Potential increases in financial aid/tuition discounting above the rate of tuition growth, especially in demographically challenged states


108

Moody’s 2006 Higher Ed Outlook Enrollment/Demand Trends Many institutions in states with

difficult demographic environments reaching out beyond their core markets to recruit additional out of state students. (approximately 80% of students enroll in their home state)

Building a presence in a new market may take several years to effectively develop and translate into real revenue growth from stronger out-of-state enrollment


109

Moody’s 2006 Higher Ed Outlook Enrollment/Demand Trends Further demand for graduate and

professional programs, and education adult programs, although this is a highly competitive and often cyclical market and necessitates careful management

The community colleges may experience the most rapid growth, as first generation college attendees enroll, leading to institutions to focus more on transfer populations


110

Broad Institutional Enrollment Management Considerations Does your staff (the faculty and administrators)

resemble in the composition of future student body?

Will your strategy be to target these new groups of students or will you attempt to adapt to changes as they occur?

What are the financial resources (including financial aid) necessary to meet the institution’s enrollment goals?

If students come in with weaker preparation, what will be your response?

What will be the impact on retention and graduation?


111

Specific Implications for Enrollment Managers? It Depends Institutional type and sector

Public or private Two year or four year Selective or less selective

Geographical location Institutional draw (market

position)


112

More….. Direction of campus aid policies

hard to discern For the moment, growing competition

around merit aid Growing public attention on negative

effects of merit aid Emerging focus on need based aid There is a finite amount of money

campuses can spend on aid


113

Additional Implications for Enrollment Managers• Some institutions will enroll student bodies

that are less academically prepared than current classes.

• Some institutions will see shrinking enrollments because of declines in the number of high school graduates in their states or regions.

• Some institutions may need to expand or alter their recruitment strategies and redefine the target populations they seek to attract and enroll.

• The racial and ethnic composition of students on campus may be markedly different from current classes.


114

Emerging Era of the Community College?• Demographic shifts pose potential

problems – they have more in common characteristics of students attending 2 year colleges

• Students starting in 2 year colleges may already have a predisposition for publics

• Public policy trends could result in longer term student shifts toward community colleges which could result in more students at publics


115

How do we use this data? Enrollment projections modeling

Trends in applications by state and region Average market share over recent years Projections of applicants by state and

racial/ethnic group Enrollment management research

opportunities Strategies for increasing market share Strategies for expanding recruiting areas Communications/publications strategies –

publish in difference languages (especially for parents), hire multi-lingual recruiters

Consider new financial aid/financing strategies


116

What do these colleges have in common? Bradford College Westbrook College Ricker College Trinity College Notre Dame

No longer exist or exist under a different name


117

ReferencesPublications Postsecondary Opportunity July 2004, October 2004, November 2004 and December 2004 Trends in Educational Equity of Girls and Women, NCES. College Board Data and Reporting Products, Integrated State Summary Report New England

- All Schools 2004 College-Bound Seniors: A Profile of SAT Program Test Takers Enrollment in Postsecondary Education Institutions, Fall 2002 and Financial Statistics,

Fiscal Year 2002 The Condition of Education, 2004: National Center for Education Statistics Education Pays 2004 and 2005: The College Board Gender Equity in Higher Education: Are Male Students at a Disadvantage? American

Council on Education Center for Policy Analysis, 2000 and updated tables and figures, August 2003.

Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State, Income and Race/Ethnicity: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, December 2003.

The American Freshman: National Norms for Fall 2004, Cooperative Institutional Research Program, Higher Education Research Institute, UCLA, December 2004.

Books Mismatch: The Growing Gulf Between Men and Women, Andrew Hacker, Scribner, 2003. Raising Cain: Protecting the Emotional Life of Boys, Dan Kindlon and Michael Thompson,

Ballantyne, 2000. Conditions of Access: Higher Education for Lower Income Students, Donald Heller, Editor,

Praeger/ACE, 2002. America’s Untapped Resource: Low Income Students in Higher Education, Richard D,

Kahlenberg, Editor, The Century Foundation, 2004. The Source of the River: The Social Origins of Freshmen at America's Selective Colleges and

Universities; Douglas s. Massey, Camille Z. Charles, Garvey F. Lundy, Mary J. Fischer, Princeton University Press, 2003.

Higher Education and the Color Line: College Access, Racial Equity and Social Change. Edited by Gary Orfield, Patricia Marin and Catherine L. Horn, Harvard Education Press, 2005.

Documents

November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education1 Student Demographic Projections, Public Policy Questions and the Impact on Higher