November 24-25 , 2011 APEC-IOT conference , Singapore

Masaaki KuboniwaInstitute of Economic Research

Hitotsubashi University

Background

• From Gross to Net Concept

1. From gross output to net output (VA; GDP)

I-O economics became less popular despite IOT’s necessity for the accurate GDP estimate.

2. From gross trade to “net” trade

From local to global production network

/global environmental relations

I-O economics and IOT are revived in an international perspective.

From gross to “net” trade

• Primary factor content of trade(a) International IOT ; tracking the direct and

indirect requirements for domestic and foreign intermediate inputs (I-A) -1

(b) Requirements for primary factor inputs; value added ratios (VA-to-output ratios) ； V Tracking the full requirements for primary factor inputs V (I-A) -1

Literature

• Trefler and Zyu (2010) Hecksher-Ohlin-Vanek factor content of trade prediction international IO• Koopman, Powers, Wang and Wei (2010) NBER WP

The complete exposition of static IO theory frame; VAs+Imports =gross FDs• IDE/WTO (2011) marked impact • Dietzenbacher and Los (2010) mimeo Incomplete exposition of factor content of trade

Toward Further generalizations in theory and applications

• Specification of factor inputs by category (capital stock, labor and natural wealth)

• Specification of tradable factor inputs by country origin; a dynamic setup

Database

• Asian IO 2005 (IDE et al) 　 ? (Yokohama NU)??• BRICS IO 2005 (IDE et al) ?• 26 countries/41 sectors 2004 (USITC) ??• WIOT (Groningen U) ??? • EU21-IO 2005 (Hitotsubashi U - Prof. Yoshinaga) Incomplete databases; Need to check and trace each IOT before tracing value

added High reliability of data on country-specific value added

ratio by sector given country practices

Non-generalization Directions

• 1 　 Non-competitive (Isard, 1951) type of input-coefficients results in an accurate analysis for the given period whereas this is likely to hamper the stability of input coefficients which is desirable for a timely forecasting analysis.

• 2 Value added induced by final demand results in a meaningful analysis based on accurate data.

Sustainable compilation of data set. • 3 Even macro data on foreign trade might be rather

questionable for some countries such as China and Russia. Value-added ratios, GDP and industrial production

AIOIndonesia

Malaysia

The Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

China

Chinese Taipei

Korea

Japan

United States

APEC

Australia Mexico

Brunei Darussalam New Zealand

CanadaPapua NewGuinea

Chile Peru

China The Philippines

Hong Kong, China Russia

Indonesia Singapore

Japan Chinese Taipei

Korea Thailand

Malaysia United States

Viet Nam

Belgium Czech Denmark Germany Estonia Ireland Greece Spain France Italy Lithuania Hungary Netherlands Austria Poland Portugal Romania

Belgium 231457 552 691 14500 32 1702 307 2951 15022 5060 21 402 10178 678 850 523 123Czech 874 104557 267 11449 44 212 106 918 1729 1784 64 1315 811 1856 2285 142 344Denmark 859 228 119339 5322 95 673 181 1037 1903 1430 53 212 1843 196 661 313 33Germany 16759 11442 6912 1539498 443 3099 2407 19448 40901 28768 378 7731 19558 20478 11776 3284 1673Estonia 42 10 121 230 8205 12 5 13 30 30 69 102 45 12 45 2 0Ireland 4616 224 533 6727 26 94285 146 2324 4754 4275 4 97 2302 331 212 234 91Greece 370 53 155 1545 1 30 88228 357 799 1559 1 27 241 184 68 49 191Spain 2645 618 729 11433 42 1524 652 760413 17635 8668 27 509 3073 637 834 9033 287France 13925 1699 1458 26522 63 1982 1279 18815 1247870 20302 58 1451 6711 1764 2543 2506 677Italy 4174 1964 1248 21489 113 1475 2918 13175 22692 1209731 113 2007 3435 4049 3087 1901 2027Lithuania 115 30 134 382 167 44 2 59 263 84 11762 24 76 19 262 3 5Hungary 558 1118 165 6501 26 125 132 967 1453 1730 25 60072 456 1591 982 131 1125Netherlands 12171 975 2262 25366 61 2646 671 4798 10241 6686 38 911 349587 1527 1436 843 199Austria 1217 1811 293 18177 69 197 184 1198 2091 5710 60 2017 981 156416 944 135 644Poland 896 2205 710 9952 177 220 62 778 2105 1927 370 1165 1109 829 206708 123 450Portugal 662 43 97 1882 4 118 63 5776 2527 1125 1 53 513 59 76 107228 15Romania 318 132 31 1252 1 28 334 339 762 2420 1 648 245 347 169 17 56280Slovenia 74 247 57 1318 2 21 24 125 543 1485 3 273 64 827 232 14 84Slovakia 360 4125 131 3617 12 29 61 298 671 1225 17 1388 251 1463 1440 19 241Finland 949 181 830 3571 908 247 166 1054 1439 1209 83 292 1380 251 644 172 37Sweden 2083 468 4867 6908 365 667 283 2021 4002 2648 107 473 2380 703 1135 235 86

442 Intermediate inputs 295124 132682 141030 1717641 10856 109336 98211 836864 1379432 1307856 13255 81169 405239 194217 236389 126907 64612

443 Imports 56534 23698 31835 248101 3171 74380 21032 100850 140665 162078 4531 23532 88602 27848 25947 15403 12057444 Net taxes on products 8267 3507 8237 56938 303 4452 7437 17543 45313 38209 107 2617 11984 5835 8000 6001 4157445 Intermediate inputs 359925 159887 181102 2022680 14330 188168 126680 955257 1565410 1508143 17893 107318 505825 227900 270336 148311 80826446 Compensation for employee 152349 43137 110529 1130840 4939 65963 68593 430833 898317 0 8393 41368 254563 119522 87539 75358 31205447 Other net tax on production 2311 -933 -432 20510 -3 106 -223 3963 57729 0 -5 -485 1576 2464 2189 -1263 -207448 Consumption of capital 47630 18597 32949 335920 1369 16967 23983 0 0 0 2376 12828 75709 37578 31553 24755 0449 Net profits 67550 29032 32592 536620 3588 60155 82268 0 591716 0 7574 22234 124334 59855 94063 29513 0450 Gross profits 115177 47626 65544 872540 4961 77118 106248 378985 591716 0 9953 35063 200043 97432 125617 54267 39489

451 Value added 269841 89828 175641 2023890 9895 143191 174624 813779 1547756 1284444 18338 75946 456182 219417 215345 128366 70490

452 Gross output 629766 249715 356743 4046570 24225 331359 301304 1769036 3113166 2792587 36231 183264 962007 447317 485681 276677 151316

269840 89833 175638 2023890 9893 143191 174621 434796 1547762 0 18338 75945 456182 219419 215344 128363 30998629766 249715 356743 4046570 24225 331359 301304 1769036 3113166 2792587 36231 183264 962007 447317 485681 276677 151316

2005 International Input-Output Tablefor EU 21 Countries

(Unit : Mill EURO)

EU-21 2005