NRCS National Water and Climate Center Update Tom Pagano
[email protected] 503 414 3010 Natural Resources Conservation
Service Slide 2 Graphical Products New Forecast Software VIPER
Daily Forecasts Slide 3 NRCS Webpage Circa 2001 until Sept 2006(!)
Slide 4 Design principles Rich context in neutral colors Data
emphasized without being ham-fisted Still usable in black and white
Completely annotated NRCS Webpage 2007 Slide 5 Slide 6 Slide 7
Slide 8 Slide 9 Combined NRCS/NWS plots (using ACIS data) Slide 10
Slide 11 Where to get maps: http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/gis To get
actual data files Slide 12 New forecasting software: VIPER
(Visually Interactive Prediction and Estimation Routines) Based in
Microsoft Excel so anyone can use Acquires data directly from
agencies via the Internet Visually immersive, fully interactive
Slide 13 New forecasting software: VIPER (Visually Interactive
Prediction and Estimation Routines) Based in Microsoft Excel so
anyone can use Acquires data directly from agencies via the
Internet Visually immersive, fully interactive Useful for
everything from noodling around to full operational production.
Possible classroom teaching tool? NRCS Sponsored training sessions
Slide 14 VIPER Regression techniques Principal Components
Regression (Garen 1992) Prevents compensating variables. Filters
noise. Originally coupled to predictor search routine
(optimization) but not necessary. Slide 15 Principal Components
Regression (Garen 1992) Prevents compensating variables. Filters
noise. Originally coupled to predictor search routine
(optimization) but not necessary. Z-Score Regression (Pagano 2004)
Prevents compensating variables. Aggregates like predictors,
emphasizing best ones. Does not require serial completeness.
Relative contribution of predictors VIPER Regression techniques
Slide 16 Other VIPER features Predictor search routines Predictor
time optimization Report generation Exporting to GIS Saving and
managing static forecast equations Automated data acquisition from
web Data management and editing Forecast coordination and
management Forecast routing Configuration management Slide 17 Slide
18 Daily Forecast Updates Currently, forecasts produced 1x per
month using monthly data. With a simulation model (e.g. ESP) can be
run more frequently but is resource intensive. Slide 19 Daily
Forecast Updates Daily SNOTEL data exists for 20+ years.
Statistical forecast techniques are cheap/easy. Why not develop 365
forecast equations/year? Slide 20 Daily Forecast Updates Daily
SNOTEL data exists for 20+ years. Statistical forecast techniques
are cheap/easy. Why not develop 365 forecast equations/year?
Developed Excel application to calibrate daily forecasts (1.5 mins)
and run them on a scheduler (10 sec) Slide 21 1971-2000 avg Period
of record median Period of record range (10,30,70,90 percentile)
Slide 22 1971-2000 avg Period of record median Period of record
range (10,30,70,90 percentile) Official coordinated outlooks Slide
23 1971-2000 avg Period of record median Period of record range
(10,30,70,90 percentile) Official coordinated outlooks Daily Update
Forecasts Slide 24 Official forecasts Slide 25 Daily forecast 50%
exceedence Official forecasts Expected skill Slide 26 Calibration
dataset of todays equation Current forecast Slide 27 Sept 30 Slide
28 May 1 Slide 29 Slide 30 obs Slide 31 Slide 32 Slide 33 Courtesy
Randal Wortman Army Corps 6% avg error Slide 34
http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ wsf/daily_forecasts.html If you want
more forecasts in your area: Oregon/Columbia: [email protected]
(503) 414 3267 Washington: [email protected] (360) 428-7684
Idaho: [email protected] (208) 378-5741 Montana:
[email protected] (406) 587-6991
