September/October 2002 Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 73

Shimon Peres, played a central rolein securing an agreement withFrance in 1956 for a nuclear re-search reactor. Physicist Ernst DavidBergmann, director of the IsraeliAtomic Energy Commission, provid-ed early scientific direction. Becauseof Israel’s precarious position in theMiddle East, the bomb was consid-ered a centerpiece of its securityagainst hostile neighbors. On the eveof the Six-Day War in 1967, Israel“improvised” two deliverable nucle-ar explosive devices, according toAvner Cohen in his book, Israel andthe Bomb.

Nuclear weapons complex. WithFrench assistance, Israel built a nu-clear weapons facility at Dimona inthe Negev desert. The Dimona sitehas a plutonium/tritium productionreactor, an underground chemicalseparation plant, and nuclear com-ponent fabrication facilities. In theearly years of its nuclear program,Israel may have used French testingdata to confirm its own weapon de-signs. Some believe that Israel hasconducted secret nuclear tests. Anexplosion high in the atmosphere onSeptember 22, 1979, off the eastern

coast of South Africa is widely be-lieved to have been a clandestine Is-raeli test.

Aircraft. Over the past 30 years,Israel has acquired several types ofaircraft capable of carrying nucleargravity bombs, including F-4 Phan-toms, A-4 Skyhawks, and more re-cently, F-16s and F-15Es.

The F-16 has been the backboneof the Israeli Air Force and is themost likely candidate for air deliveryof nuclear weapons. From 1980–1995, Israel bought or received260 F-16s from the United States:103 F-16As, 22 F-16Bs, 81 F-16Cs,and 54 F-16Ds. In 1999, the Israeligovernment announced it would buy50 F-16Is, at a cost of about $2.5billion. Israel will receive the aircraftover a two-year period beginning inearly 2003. Under this contract, Is-rael has the option to purchase60 additional aircraft. If it does,delivery would continue through2008.

Of the F-16s, probably only asmall fraction are nuclear certifiedwith specially trained crews, uniqueprocedures, and modifications thatenable them to carry nuclear weap-

ons. Nuclear weaponsmay be deployed withassigned squadrons atone or more air bases.Or the weapons may bekept at dispersal bases,such as Tel Nof, wherecertified planes could beloaded. It is especiallydifficult to determinewhich squadrons are assigned nuclear mis-sions and which basessupport them. Likely F-16 squadrons are: the111th, 115th, and 116th

IT IS ISRAELI POLICY TO NEITHER CON-firm nor deny that it possesses nucle-ar weapons, although it is generallyaccepted by friend and foe alike thatIsrael has been a nuclear state forseveral decades. Its declaratory poli-cy states: “Israel will not be the firstcountry to introduce nuclear weap-ons in the Middle East,” but its actu-al deployment and employment poli-cies are secret. A January 2001Pentagon report, Proliferation: Threatand Responses, omits Israel from itsreview of the Middle East, but a1991 U.S. Strategic Air Commandstudy lists Israel, India, and Pakistanas “de facto” nuclear weapon states.Estimates of the Israeli nuclear arse-nal range from 75–200 weapons,comprising bombs, missile war-heads, and possibly non-strategic(tactical) weapons.

Background. In the mid-1950s,Israel undertook a determined effortto develop nuclear weapons. AfterEgyptian President Gamal AbdelNasser closed the Straits of Tiran in1953, Israeli Prime Minister DavidBen Gurion began development ofnuclear weapons and other uncon-ventional munitions. His protégé,

Israeli nuclear forces, 2002

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Strategic forcesYear Range

deployed (kilometer) CommentAircraft

F-16A/B/C/D/I Fighting Falcon 1980 1,600 Bombs possibly stored at Tel Nof, Nevatim, Ramon, Ramat-David, and Hatzor

F-15I Ra’am (Thunder) 1998 4,450 Could be used for long-range strike role

Land-based missilesJericho I 1972 1,200 Possibly 50 at ZekharyehJericho II 1984–85 1,800 Possibly 50 at Zekharyeh, on TELs in caves

Sea-based missilesDolphin-class submarines 2002 (?) ? Modified Harpoon missiles for land-attack

Non-strategic forces

Artillery and landmines ? ? Reports of these weapons cannot be confirmed

at Nevatim (southeast of Beershe-ba), and the 140th and 253rd atRamon in the Negev. Other possiblesquadrons are the 109th, 110th, and117th at Ramat-David in northernIsrael, and the 101st, 105th, and144th at Hatzor.

Using conventional weapons, eightaircraft from the 110th and 117thsquadrons (escorted by six F-15s)destroyed Iraq’s Osirak nuclear reac-tor outside Baghdad on June 7,1981, in what was called “Opera-tion Opera.”

In January 1994, Israel selectedthe Boeing F-15E Strike Eagle for itslong-range strike and air-superiorityroles. It is called the F-15I Ra’am(Thunder) in Israel. Initially, 21planes were ordered, with a pricetagof just over $2 billion. In 1995, Israelbought four more. On January 19,1998, the first two Ra’am planeslanded in Hatzerim Airbase, flown byBoeing pilots. The plane has greatertakeoff weight (36,750 kilograms)and range (4,450 kilometers) thanother F-15 models. Its maximumspeed at high altitude is Mach 2.5.The plane has been modified to usespecial radar with terrain-mappingcapability and other naviga-tion and guidance systems.The Ra’am can carry 4.5 tonsof fuel in its internal, confor-mal, and detachable tanks, aswell as 11 tons of munitions.The last of 25 F-15s were de-livered to the Israeli Air Forcebefore May 1999. The F-15Isare assigned to Squadron 69(Hammers Squadron) atHatzerim. In the U.S. AirForce, the F-15E Strike Eaglehas a nuclear role. Whetherthe Israeli Air Force has pro-vided nuclear capability tothis high-performance planeis unknown.

Land-based missiles. Is-rael’s quest for a missile capa-bility began at the same timeas its quest for nuclear weap-ons. In April 1963—severalmonths before the Dimona re-

actor began operating—Israel signedan agreement with the French com-pany Dassault to produce a surface-to-surface ballistic missile. Israelispecifications called for a two-stagemissile capable of delivering a750-kilogram warhead to 235–500kilometers with a circular errorprobable of less than 1 kilometer.The missile system, known as theJericho (or MD-620), was designedto take less than two hours to pre-pare, be launchable from fixed ormobile bases, and be capable of fir-ing at a rate of four to eight missilesper hour. In early 1966, the NewYork Times reported that Israel hadbought a first installment of 30 mis-siles. After the 1967 war, France im-posed an embargo on new militaryequipment, and Israel began produc-ing the Jericho missile independent-ly. In 1974, the CIA cited the Jerichoas evidence that Israel had nuclearweapons, stating that the Jerichomade little sense as a conventionalmissile and was “designed to accom-modate nuclear warheads.”

Subsequently, Israel developed theJericho II, which has some similari-ties to the U.S. Pershing II. In May

1987 Israel tested an improved ver-sion of the Jericho II that flew 800kilometers. A second test was con-ducted in September 1988, and athird Jericho II tested in September1989 reportedly flew 1,300 kilome-ters. In 1989, the U.S. Arms Controland Disarmament Agency gave themaximum range of the improvedJericho II as 1,450 kilometers—longenough to reach the southern borderof the Soviet Union. Israel vigorouslypursued technologies for the missilein the United States and elsewhere,including a terminal guidance systemusing radar imaging. It is thoughtthat the range has been increasedto 1,800 kilometers.

According to a 1997 Jane’s article,there are about 50 Jericho II missilesat the Zekharyeh missile base, some45 kilometers southeast of Tel Avivin the Judean Hills. According to ananalysis of satellite images, the mis-siles appear to be stored in caves.Upon warning, they would probablybe dispersed on their transporter-erector launchers (TELs) so as not tobe destroyed. The shorter-range Jeri-cho I is deployed nearby in approxi-mately equal numbers.

74 Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists September/October 2002

July 27, 1999: the Dolphin arriving at the dock in Haifa.

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In 1988, Israel began launchingseveral Ofek satellites into orbit atopShavit (Comet) three-stage rockets,which are derived from the Jericho IImissile. The first satellite weighedabout 180 kilograms; the most re-cent, the Ofek 5, about 300 kilo-grams. The satellites monitor activi-ties in hostile states and provideintelligence. The Shavit could beconverted into a long-range ballisticmissile, with a range of up to 7,000kilometers, depending on the weightof the warhead.

Missiles are test launched from thePalmikhim Airbase north of TelAviv. In April 2000, Israel test-launched a Jericho missile into theMediterranean Sea, without inform-ing the United States in advance. Themissile impacted near a U.S. war-ship, which reportedly thought itwas under attack.

Sea-based missiles and sub-marines. Israel has a population ofalmost 6 million and is slightly small-er than New Jersey. It has a coastlineof 170 miles on the MediterraneanSea. With concerns about advancesin missile capabilities by Iraq, Iran,and other hostile neighbors, and withaccess to the Mediterranean, it waslogical that Israel would eventuallydevelop a nuclear-capable sea-basedleg to supplement its air- and land-based components. The most invul-nerable types of nuclear-armed sea-based systems traditionally havebeen submarines.

In June 2002, former Pentagonand State Department officials toldthe Washington Post that Israel wasarming three diesel-powered sub-marines with cruise missiles capableof carrying nuclear warheads.

Israel contracted with Germancompanies Thyssen Nordseewerkein Emden and Howaldtswerke-Deutsche Werft in Kiel to build thesubmarines for the Israeli DefenseForces/Navy (IDF/N). Designatedthe Dolphin-class, they are 57.3 me-ters long, displace 1,900 tons, canreach a speed of 20 knots, and havea crew of 35 men each. The first

submarine, the Dolphin, arrived inHaifa on July 27, 1999. TheLeviathan joined the fleet before theend of 1999, and the third boat, theTekumah, was delivered in July2000. The cost of each submarine isestimated at $300 million. Each sub-marine has 10 21-inch tubes capableof launching torpedoes, mines, orcruise missiles.

A senior Israeli defense officialconfirmed that Dolphin-class subscarry modified U.S. Harpoon anti-ship missiles. Making them nuclear-capable would require an Israeli-developed nuclear warhead and guid-ance kit for land-attack targets. It isunknown whether the missiles havethat modification. In March 2000,the United States rejected Israel’s re-quest for 12 long-range BGM-109Tomahawk cruise missiles. The Tom-ahawk sea-launched cruise missileexists in a nuclear-tipped version fordelivery by U.S. attack subs.

Non-strategic weapons. Somereports indicate that Israel has devel-oped nuclear artillery shells and pos-sibly nuclear mines, which may bestored at the Eilabun facility, west ofthe Sea of Galilee. A March 2000 re-port stated that Israel planned to laynuclear landmines to deter a Syrianattack after withdrawing from theGolan Heights. In response, IsraeliDeputy Defense Minister EphraimSneh said, “This report is trulystupid. The person that wrote it notonly doesn’t know, but also doesn’tunderstand anything.” �

Nuclear Notebook is prepared byRobert S. Norris of the Natural Re-sources Defense Council, William M.Arkin, Hans M. Kristensen of theNautilus Institute, and Joshua Han-dler. Inquiries should be directed toNRDC, 1200 New York Avenue,N.W., Suite 400, Washington, D.C.,20005; 202-289-6868.

September/October 2002 Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 75

A 2-meter resolution satellite image of the Dimona facility, taken July 4, 2000.

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