Nuclear energy in the clean energy future

Agneta RisingDirector General

Climate change and the role of nuclear powerIAEA, Vienna, 7 October 2019

Nuclear is moving higher on the agenda

IEA: Nuclear Power in a Clean Energy System

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• Failing to invest in nuclear plants would have implications for emissions, costs and energy security.

• Strong policy support is needed to secure investment in nuclear.

• Electricity markets should value clean energy and energy security attributes of nuclear power.

• Licensing processes should support new construction and not lead to project delays and cost increases.

Progress: World Energy Council

Launched at World Energy Congress, Abu Dhabi

• Nuclear energy is one of the most cost-effective sources of electricity in many countries.

• Nuclear energy contributes clean and low-carbon energy and system stability, which are not currently included in comparison of generation-only costs

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IPCC identify pathways to emissions reductionto limit climate change to 1.5oC

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• Nuclear increases by average of 2.5 times by 2050 in the 86 scenarios reviewed by the IPCC.

• In IPPC’s representative middle-of-the-road scenario nuclear increases five times, contributing 25% of the electricity mix in 2050.

IPCC, 2018, Special Report Global Warming of 1.5C

The need for electricity will continue to rise…

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Decarbonization in France

7International Energy Agency (2018), Electricity Information 2018

New reactor starts in 2018-19

Russia: Rostov-4Russia: Leningrad 2-1China: Yangjiang 5China: Taishan 1China: Sanmen 1China: Haiyang 1China: Sanmen 2China: Haiyang 2

China: Tianwan 4South Korea: Shin Kori 4Russia: Novovoronezh 2-2China: Taishan 2China: Yangjiang 6

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Scheduled start ups by 2020MWe

2019 Belarus Ostrovets 1 11942019 China, Fangchenggang 3 11802019 China, Fuqing 5 11502019 China, Hongyanhe 5 11192019 China, Huaneng 2102019 Russia, Pevek FNPP 70

MWe2020 Belarus, Ostrovets 2 11942020 China, Hongyanhe 6 11192020 China, Fangchenggang 411802020 China, Fuqing 6 11502020 China, Tianwan 5 11182020 Finland, Olkiluoto 3 17202020 India, Kalpakkam PFBR 5002020 Japan, Shimane 3 13732020 Korea, Shin Hanul 1 14002020 Russia, Leningrad II-2 11702020 Slovakia, Mochovce 3 4712020 UAE, Barakah 1 1400

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Operational and Scheduled Start-ups 2016-2020

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20 Designs, 35MWe to 1720 MWe

In total these 47 reactors add 15% to global nuclear capacity

Harmony: a goal for the nuclear community

1000 gigawatt new nuclear capacity by 2050

To help meet the growing demand for a clean and reliable low-carbon mix.

25% of electricity supply before 2050

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Harmony: 1000 GW new nuclear capacity by 2050

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Construction rate doubled from trend of less than 5GW/y to 10GW/y

Then we need to triple from today’s level

Harmony Programme

The Harmony programme provides a framework for action, helping industry reach out to key stakeholders so that barriers to growth can be removed.

Create a Level Playing Field

Nuclear energy to be treated on equal opportunity with other low-carbon technologies and recognized for its value in a reliable, resilient low carbon energy mix.

Dozens of well-performing reactors are at risk of early closure in failing markets

System Costs

16Source: OECD- NEA. OECD-NEA, 2018, The Full Costs of Electricity Provision

Levelized Cost Of Electricity- Global

17Projected costs of generating electricity- 2015: IEA and OECD NEA

(at 7% discount rate)

Levelized Cost Of Electricity - China

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Nuclear Coal Gas CCGT Solar PV Wind onshore Wind offshore

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IEA World Energy Outlook 2018

Create Harmonized Regulatory Processes

Provide a more internationally consistent, efficient and predictable nuclear licensing regime, to facilitate significant growth of nuclear capacity and timely licensing of innovative designs.

…causes many drawbacks for the entire nuclear industry, including developers, vendors, operators and even regulators themselves

This results in increased costs and reduced predictability in project execution

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The variety of national regulatory requirements…

Create an Effective Safety Paradigm

We need to focus on genuine public wellbeing, where the health, environmental and safety benefits of nuclear are better valued, especially when compared to other energy sources.

Safety of Electricity Generation:Energy accident fatalities for OECD countries

Contribution to climate change mitigation

• Nuclear avoids the emission of more than 2500 million tonnes of carbon dioxide every year, compared to fossil fuels.

• Equivalent of removing about 400 million cars from the world’s roads.

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Michael Davis-Burchat

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“Nuclear reactors are the low-carbon backbone of the electricity system, operating in the background, day in and day out. Often out of sight and out of mind, they are the silent giants we rely upon daily.”

Harmony goal: Strong policy support is needed

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Construction rate doubled from trend of less than 5GW/y to 10GW/y

Then we need to triple from today’s level