Nuclear Energy in the Near Future in Mexico - 2014pbnc2014.org/plan_present/6_ J Palacios_ININ.pdf · • Thermal Capacity 2027 MW (Original 1931 MW, now 2317 MW at 120%) • Reference

ININ

Nuclear Energy in the NearFuture in Mexico

Dra. Lydia C. Paredes

presente d by Javier C. Palacios

ININ México• Official Name: Estados Unidos Mexicanos (United Mexican

States)• Surface: 1'972,547 km2

• Fifth largest country in the Americas by total area and the 13th largest independent nation in the world

• Population: 113 millions. – The eleventh most populous – The most populous Spanish-speaking country in the world, – Second most populous country in Latin America

• OECD member since 1994• The largest silver producer• Electricity Generating Capacity 53,664 MW in 2013• Per capita power use in 2011 was about 2070 kWh/yr.• Tenth largest oil producer in the world

ININOECD Electricity Generating Capacity

2010

Source Electricity Information 2013. International Energy Agency

USA, 83.90%

CANADA 11.10%

MEXICO, 5.00%

NORTH AMERICA (GW)1,240.4

OECD Total2,652.8

ININElectricity Generation in Mexico

2002-2013

Inhabitants 103 millions

Users 26 millions

Inhabitants 117 millions

Users36 millions

x0.4x0.1

1.2% p.a.

Users are growing more and faster than inhabitants

USERS POPULATION

Fuente: CONAPO, CFE

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Electricity Generation

Termoeléctrica Ciclo combinado Dual Carboeléctrica Hidroeléctrica Nucleoeléctrica Geotermoeléctrica Eoloeléctrica Solar Fotovoltaica

201,059 MWh 287,859 MWh

ININTechnologies in the Mexican

Electric System 2013

Hydro21.45% Wind

1.11%Solar PV0.01%Coal

4.84%Nuclear3.00%

Geoth1.53%

Thermal26.05%

CC36.82%

Dual5.18%

INSTALLED CAPACITY53,664 MW

Hydro10.64%

Wind0.70%

Solar PV0.01%

Coal6.22% Nuclear

4.58%Geoth2.35%

Thermal20.43%

CC49.02%

Dual6.04%

GENERATION 257,860 MWh

ININ data from CFE

ININ Public opinión in México

MUY DE ACUERDO / DE ACUERDO MUY EN DESACUERDO / EN DESACUERDO NO CONTESTÓ

46 41

13

5040

10

48 46

6

Agree: Use nuclear energy for electricity generation

Dic 2006 Dic 2008 Dic 2013

Muy de acuerdo/de acuerdo Muy en desacuerdo/en desacuerdo No sabe

42 43

15

41 42

13

40

53

7

Agree: Build new nuclear power plants in México

dic-06 dic-08 dic-13

ININ – CFE Survey 2006, 2008, 2013

ININInstitutional Framework for nuclear

energyHead of Nuclear Sector

- Energy Policy

- Energy Strategy (ENE)- Electricity Outlook

(PSELEC)

ININResearch and development

CNSNSRegulatory

Body

Federal ElectricityCompany- Planning(POISE)- Generation

- Transmission- Nuclear Power

Head of Nuclear Sector

- Energy Policy

- Energy Strategy (ENE)- Electricity Outlook

(PSELEC)


CNSNSRegulatory

Body

Federal ElectricityComission- Planning(POISE)- Generation

- Transmission- Nuclear Power

Head of Nuclear Sector

- Energy Policy

- Energy Strategy (ENE)- Planning Electricity

Sector


CNSNSRegulatory

Body

Federal ElectricityCompany- Generation

- Transmission- Distribution- Nuclear Power

New 2014 Law

ININNuclear Power in Mexico

Milestones

Construction of Laguna Verde Nuclear Power Plant

Creation of theNational Nuclear Energy Commission

Commercial operation Laguna Verde Units I & II

Nuclear Lawmodification

National NuclearEnergy Institute

Extended PowerUprate (EPU) projectat Laguna Verde

Start Up TRIGA Mark III

August 14th Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE)

Ley Reglamentaria del Artículo 27 Constitucional en materia nuclear (currently in force)

•CNSNS (regulatory body)

•ININ (R&D)

•Uramex (extinguished)

Nuclear energyconsiderd clean energyNuclear Power remains

state owned

New CFE LawNew law for electricity

ININ Laguna Verde Nuclear Power Plant

• Owner /Operator CFE• Two identical BWR GE BWR/5 • Unit 1 since july 1990• Unit 2 since april 1995• Thermal Capacity 2027 MW

(Original 1931 MW, now 2317 MW at 120%)• Reference Power 665 Mwe (each reactor). • Net Desgin capacity 810.00 Mwe

CNLV represents 3.08% as total installed capacity in the country, and represents 4.6% of the country's generated electrical energy on 2013.

ININLaguna Verde participation in the

electricity system

3.8% 3.7%3.5%

3.3%3.1%

2.9% 2.9%2.8% 2.7% 2.7% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6%

3.1%

2.6%

5.5%

4.3%4.4%

4.9%5.2%

4.4%

5.0% 4.9%

4.5%

4.2%4.5%

2.4%

3.9%

3.4%

4.6%

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

% de Capacidad Instalada %de Generación Nacional

ININ from SENER -CFE data “Prospectiva del Sector Eléctrico”

ININ

NUCLEAR ENERGY IN MEXICO

NEP 2007-2012

ENE 2012 -2026

ENE 2013-2027

POISE 2014-2028

ININ

National Energy Program 2007-2012, Electricity Sector

II.2.2 Strategy. "Analyzing the feasibility of extending the nuclear electricity generation, under international standards of safety and operational reliability, contributing to the sustainable development of the country".

Action line: “Develope studies to determine whether to implement a program that drives the expansion of generating electricity including nuclear technology".

Based on the work carried out by the Committee of support for decision-making in the field of nuclear energy. Integrated by the SENER (who presides over it), the CFE, the ININ, C.N.S.N.S. and IIE.

II.2 Objective "Balancing the portfolio of primary energysources in order to increase energy security."

ININDiversify energy mix giving priority to non fossil

fuels

ENE 2012-2026ENE 2013-2028

• Economic and productive efficiency• Environmental Sustainability• Energy Security• Increase the participation of non-fossil fuels in electricity

generation to 35%.

LAERFTE 2012(Law for Renewables and Enegety Transition)

• Fossil fuels in electricity generation should have amaximum of 65% in 2024, 60% in 2035 and 50% in 2050.

LSPEE 2014(Electric Service Law)

• Production should take advantage of lower electricitycost (considering environmental externalities), stabilityand security on service.

ININ ENE 2012-2026

Diversify energy mix giving priority to non fossil fuels

ININ

Combined Cycle Wind Nuclear

Bussines as usual

49,837 MW installedcapacity

7,667 MW MW installedcapacity

1,590 MW de installedcapacity (same as now)

ENE1

Excludes 10,661 MW of CC

(15 o 16 proyectos de alrededor de

700 MW)

• Addition of 28,413MW (248 wind farms100 MW each).

• Backup: Adding 7,857MW gas turbine

Same capacity installed that in the BAU

scenario

ENE2Same capacity installed that in the BAU scenario

Addition of 10,753 MW (equivalent to 7 to 8

nuclear plants)

ENE3

• Addition of 20,968 MW(209 wind farms 100 MWeach)

• Backing: 5,792 MW gasturbines are added

Adding 2,790 MW (equivalent to two

nuclear power plants)

Technology

Wind power stations replace combined

cycles.

Nuclear power plants replace combined

cycle.

Nuclear and wind power replace

combined cycle .

Scenario

ENE 2012-2026 Planning scenarios

Installed Capacity2012: 52,534 MW2026: 93,502 MW

ININ ENE 2012-2016 Analisys

Scenarios comparison

363

338

319

333

290

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

2026… 2026 … 2026 … 2026 …

Gramos de CO2/kWh

1,123

3,215

1,5571,278

1,476

0500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,500

2010 2026Inercial

2026ENE1

2026ENE2

2026ENE3

5.79%6.94%

5.44% 5.09% 5.34%

0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%

2010 2026Inercial

2026ENE1

2026ENE2

2026ENE3

.

Scenario Cost fuel supply security

CO2 Emissions

Increasing nuclear energy share in the power generation portfolio could be necessary to meet the goals of the energy policy in Mexico.

EmissionsEnergy Security

Price Fuelsupply

Better ENE-2 ENE-2 ENE-2

ENE-3 ENE-3 ENE-3

ENE-1 ENE-1 ENE-1

Less acceptable BAU BAU BAU

ININ

Strategic Theme 10 Diversify and optimize the generation park

Strategic Theme 16. Define the scope of the nuclear program to expand nuclear capacity in Mexico

ININ

Net Electricity Generation CFEPlanning Scenario

CC64.75%

Turbogas0.23%

Combustión interna0.23%

HYDRO10.38%

COAL7.35%

NUCLEAR2.92%

GEOTH2.10%

WIND3.15%

THERMO conventonal

1.75%

Coque0.58%

NGL 2/2.68%

TCL 1/3.85%

Solar0.01%

CC45.60%

Turbogas2.40%


HYDRO12.00%

COAL13.00%

NUCLEAR3.30%

GEOTH2.20%

WIND0.50%

THERMO conventional

20.60%

1 Tecnología de carbón Limpio2 Nueva Generación Limpia. Nucleoeléctrica o renovable

2027 Planeación458,784 GWh

2012 Real261,895 GWh

ININ


Capacity building according to a nuclear program

ININ, CNSNS, UNIVERSITIES

DIFFERENTENTITIES

Planning Oriented to Diversification

TOPIC

• To elaborate a technical proposal in orderto implement a nuclear program that allows the diversity in the generation mix

ACTION LINE

SENER, CFE

RESPONSIBLE

Strengthening Regulatory

• Strengthen regulatory commissions, both the CRE as CNSNS

SENER

• Sufficient experienced a qualified human resources.

• Strengthen existing national industry and technological capabilities in the nuclear field

ININ


ININ

CC69.79%

Turbogas0.20%


Hidroeléctrica8.90%

Carboeléctrica6.30%

Nucleoeléctrica2.50%

Geotermoeléctrica1.80%

WIND2.70%

THERMO conventional

1.50%Coque0.50%

NGL2.30%

TCL3.30%

Solar0.01%

Electricity Generation Planning and Alternative Scenarios

CC45.60%

Turbogas2.40%


Hidroeléctrica12.00%

COAL13.00%

NUCLEAR3.30%


WIND0.50%

THERMO conventional

20.60%

2027 Planeación458,784 GWh

2011 Real261,895 GWh

CC59.79%

Turbogas0.10%


Hidroeléctrica8.90%COAL

5.90%

NUCLEAR7.80%


WIND13.50%

THERMO conventional

1.50%

Coque0.50%

Solar0.01%

2027 Alternative458,784 GWh

ININPlanning and alternative scenario

Electric SystemPlanning Alternative

Installed Capacity 2011Public Service 52,521 52,512Remote Selfsupply 2,166 2,166AditionsPublic service 46,960 63,182Remote Selfsupply 8,285 8,285Reserve Margin 588 588Retirements 11,815 11,815

MW MWGas 53,012 53.7% 53,044 46.2%Coal 5,498 1.6% 5,498 4.8%Oil 3,346 3.3% 3,446 2.9%Subtotal 61,856 62.7% 61,888 53.9%

Nuclear 1,610 1.6% 4,410 3.8%TCL 2,800 2.8% 0 0.0%NGL 2,800 2.8% 0 0.0%Subtotal 7,210 7.3 4,410 3.8

Hydro 16,645 16.9% 16,645 14.5%Geoth 1,065 1.1% 1,065 0.9%Wind 10,399 10.5% 29,398 25.6%Solar 424 0.4% 424 0.4%Others 1,053 1.1% 1,053 0.9%Subtotal 29,586 30.0% 48,576 42.3%

2027 Total 98,652 114,874

ININProgram of Works and Electricity Sector Investment POISE CFE 2014

Total 2012 Total 2028Retirements Aditions

Installed Capacity Evolution MW

ININProgram of Works and Electricity Sector Investment POISE CFE 2014

CC64%

Turbogas1%

HYDRO9%

COAL3%

NUCLEAR2%

GEOTH2% WIND

4%

THERMO conventional

1%

NGL (1)13%

Solar1%

2028 Planning458,824 GWh

ININ Remarks• Increasing nuclear energy share in the power generation portfolio could

be necessary to meet the goals of the energy policy in Mexico

• An early decision on increasing nuclear capacity will mean:– More likely to succeed reaching the 35% participation of clean technologies.– Let this be a real alternative in the supply of electricity in Mexico.

• The construction of nuclear power plants may be simultaneous, inaccordance with best international practices (less time, lower coststhrough economies of scale).

• Laguna Verde Nuclear Power Plant has area for two new units, and wouldbe possible to immediately start the process of site licensing.

ININThank you

“Not everything that can be counted counts, and

Not everything that counts can be counted”Albert Einstein

ININ

Nuclear Energy in the NearFuture in Mexico

Documents

Nuclear Energy in the Near Future in Mexico - 2014pbnc2014.org/plan_present/6_ J Palacios_ININ.pdf · • Thermal Capacity 2027 MW (Original 1931 MW, now 2317 MW at 120%) • Reference