Nuclear Proliferation

Monica DulosI33015

What is Nuclear Proliferation?

Nuclear Proliferation is a term used to describe the spread of nuclear weapons and weapons-applicable nuclear technology and information, to nations which are not recognized as "Nuclear Weapon States" by the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons, also known as the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty or NPT.

WHAT IS A NUCLEAR WEAPON?

A device, such as a bomb or warhead, whose great

explosive power derives from the release of nuclear

energy.

Nature and Effects of Nuclear Weapons

Reactor energy output○ Achieved through sustained

and regulated process○ Gives of continuous supply of

reliable heat that can be used to boil water and run electrical generators – happens in nuclear power plant.

Nuclear Weapon ○ Achieved through creating a

critical mass of nuclear material as a result of uncontrolled and rapid chain reaction

How to make a nuclear weapon

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4x8Omvs1PAU

Effects of Nuclear Weapon

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QsB83fAtNQEBlastHeatNuclear radiation

○ Deformation of body parts○ Cancer

Nuclear Diffusion and Delivery

USA was already capable of

manufacturing a nuclear weapon after world war 2

Soviet Union 1949

UK 1952

France 1960

China 1964

*Due to several nuclear suppliers and the transnational networks, acquisition of nuclear capabilities is easier.

Nuclear Diffusion and Delivery

Before, nuclear weapons required large planes to bring the bomb to the target area.

Enola Gay: the first plane to drop the nuclear bomb in WWI

Nuclear Diffusion and Delivery

Ballistic Missilesa missile that travels to

its target unpowered and unguided after being launched.

ConvenientDo not require huge

aircrafts to carry it to the target.

Became common because of the diffusion of nuclear technology.

Nuclear Diffusion and Delivery Technology to combat

ballistic missile Treaties on NW reduction

Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty○ a limit of 1,600 Strategic

Nuclear Delivery Vehicles ○ a ceiling of 6,000 warheads○ signed by President Bush and

Secretary Gorbachev on July 31, 1991

Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty○ Reduction of strategic delivery

vehicles and associated nuclear warheads to between 1500 to 1675.

The Proliferation Puzzle:Why some states want to acquire nuclear weapons

and why some states abandoned it

Classical realism Neo-realism Neo-liberal Institutionalism Organizational theory Belief systems theory Learning model Historical Sociology - SCOT theory

Theory of Nuclear Proliferation

Classical realismStates are unitary actors that seek to

maximize their power in order to survive in a competitive international system.

The acquisition of nuclear weapons

should be seen as a rational response of states attempting to

protect their interests, since security represents the ultimate challenge to a state’s survival

Theory of Nuclear Proliferation

Neo-realismProf. Kenneth Waltz

○ Rational deterrence theory Explains the slow spread of nuclear weapon

- Once more than one state has acquired a second strike nuclear capability (country's assured ability to respond to a nuclear attack with powerful nuclear retaliation against the attacker), war between nuclear armed states is unlikely

to happen due to the fact that mutual destruction is assured.

- Nuclear weapons will inevitably spread, and that the more they spread the better it will be for international stability since they induce caution and restraint.

Theory of Nuclear Proliferation

Neo-liberal InstitutionalismThe internal characteristics of the states are

likely to play a vital role in determining its attitude towards nuclear weapons and non-proliferation.○ Ethel Solingen (1994)

Democratic states pursing liberal economic policies may decide that it is not their interest to develop an arsenal due to their extensive reliance on the global economy and international community.

Theory of Nuclear Proliferation

Neo-liberal Institutionalism○ Glenn Chafetz (1993)

Core and Periphery States- The fact that Core states’ domestic political systems are

dominated by liberal democracies lead them to develop shared norms and values, which is likely to result in international cooperation rather than arms racing because they don’t see each other as military threats, but rather as a part of pluralistic security community.

- Peripheral states have little experience of liberal democracy , and as a result, have not developed shared values. These states are more likely to see each other as military threats and respond by developing nuclear weapons.

Theory of Nuclear Proliferation

Neo-liberal Institutionalism○ Stephen M. Meyer

Argues that nuclear proliferation cannot be understood unless the process of decision making is considered.- Decision-making process:

- Government’s decision to develop latent nuclear capacity transform capacity into operational capability decision to begin a nuclear operations program.

Theory of Nuclear Proliferation

Organizational TheoryScott Sagan

○ Nuclear weapons are likely to destabilize the world and create catastrophic consequences.

○ Organizational TheoryGovernment leaders tend to behave

rationally, but influence by powerful domestic organizations whose decision often conflicts with the decisions taken by the political leaders.

Theory of Nuclear Proliferation Belief systems theory

Beliefs and actions are linked, and that foreign policy decision-making cannot be fully understood unless the beliefs of the decision-makers are taken into account.

Peter Lavoy (1993)○ Explains why nuclear weapons spread despite the danger that

it may cause.○ Those national elites who want the state to develop nuclear

weapons emphasize the country’s security problems and the political and military strength that nuclear weapons will provide, creating the nuclear myth.

○ Nuclear myth: beliefs about nuclear weapons that based on “logic and faith” rather than on fact due to lack of objective information about the relationship between nuclear weapons and war.

Theory of Nuclear Proliferation

Belief systems theoryEpistemic communities approach

○ Cross-national groups of experts sharing professional interests, technical knowledge, and assumptions about cause-and-effect relationships in the realm of international security can and do influence proliferation decision.

Theory of Nuclear Proliferation

Learning ModelBeliefs on nuclear weapons can change as a

result of learning based on shared technical information, and this learning can lead to new policies.

This explains why political leaders are beginning to doubt the value of nuclear arsenals, based on new information, highlighting the negative environmental, economic, and political effects of nuclear weapons.

Theory of Nuclear Proliferation Historical Sociology - SCOT Theory

Donald MacKenzie (1990)○ He argued that:

nuclear technology is a part of the ordinary social processes.missile technology is a product of a complex process of

conflict and collaboration between a range of social actors including ambitious and energetic technologist, laboratories and corporations, political and military leaders, and the organizations they head.

○ He wanted to show how the activities and beliefs of these actors were shaped by events, how obstacles were overcome, and how greater missile accuracy was eventually achieved as a complex social process stretching through decades.

Theory of Nuclear Proliferation Historical Sociology - SCOT Theory

Steven Flank 1993○ Social Construction of Technology Theory

Provided India’s nuclear situation as a case studyThis shows how the alliances between different individuals,

organizations, and corporations provided the driving force behind India’s nuclear development.

The alliances between these groups affected the direction of nuclear research as the scientist first allied with the government (1947 to 1962), then with agribusiness (from 1950’s to early 1970’s), and finally with the military (from 1970’s onwards)

This explained India’s increasing involvement in military security projects.

Capabilities Capable

States that have renounced NW○ South Africa – first country to

give up NW Possessed nuclear capability

during the 1980’s No nuclear tests done but

possessed nuclear stockpile Abandoned NW due to

international pressure

○ Belarus, Ukraine, Kazakhstan Obtained NW from USSR Retaining stockpiles is not cost-

effective for nuclear-born states Lack of nuclear knowledge Lack of ability to maintain and

service such weapons and their delivery platforms

○ Libya developed and run a secret CBRN

program December 2003 – gave up nuclear

weapons program because of aid and improved relations promised by the Bush Government

○ Iraq Began developing nuclear weapons

program in 1970’s Israeli Air Force destroyed Osirak

reactor in 1991; was forced to International Atomic Energy Agency inspections.

Bush administration's justification for the 2003 Iraq War; no weapons were found after the invasion.

Capabilities

Nuclear weapons: Who has what?

http://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2013/03/world/nuclear-weapon-states/

The Start of Global Nuclear Control

UN Atomic Energy CommissionFounded on January 24, 1946First resolution to be adopted by the UN General

AssemblyEstablished to deal with the problems raised by

the discovery of atomic energy. International Atomic Energy Agency

Created through the proposal of United States President Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1953 for the creation of a body to both regulate and promote the peaceful use of nuclear power

Chronology of Treaties on Nuclear Reduction and Regulation

1959 Antarctic Treaty: demilitarizes the continent and bans the testing of any kind of weapon on the continent.

1963 Partial Test-Ban Treaty: restricts nuclear testing to underground sites only.

1967 Treaty of Tlatelolco: prohibits testing, use, manufacture, storage, or acquisition of nuclear weapons by the countries of the Latin American region.

1967 Outer Space Treaty: mandates that outer space be used for peaceful purposes only and that nuclear weapons not be placed or tested in outer space.

Chronology of Treaties on Nuclear Reduction and Regulation

1968 Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons: the non-nuclear-weapon states agree never to acquire nuclear weapons and, in exchange, are promised access to and assistance in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. Nuclear-weapon states pledge to carry out negotiations relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race and to nuclear disarmament, and not to assist in any way in the transfer of nuclear weapons to non-nuclear-weapon states.

1971 Sea-bed Treaty: bans the emplacement of nuclear weapons, or any weapon of mass destruction, on the sea-bed or ocean floor.

1985 Treaty of Rarotonga: bans the stationing, acquisition or testing of nuclear explosive devices and the dumping of nuclear waste within the South Pacific zone.

1995 Treaty of Bangkok: bans the development or stationing of nuclear weapons on the territories of the states party to the treaty.

Chronology of Treaties on Nuclear Reduction and Regulation

1996 Treaty of Pelindaba: bans the development or stationing of nuclear weapons on the African continent.

1996 Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty: places a worldwide ban on nuclear test explosions of any kind and in any environment.

2005 Nuclear Terrorism Convention: outlines specific acts of nuclear terrorism, aims to protect a broad range of possible targets, bring perpetrators to justice and promote cooperation among countries.

2006 Treaty of Semipalatinsk: comprising the five central Asian states — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

A short video of The Dictator (2012 film) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmLh

1sSFs8Y

Sources http://www.thefreedictionary.com/nuclear+weapon http://www.ceep.ca/education/CBRNintrosheet.pdf http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/3335965.stm http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/nuclear-weapons-the-libyan-

intervention-5139 http://www.ipsnews.net/2013/01/abandoning-nuclear-weapons-

lessons-from-south-africa/ http://bcjournal.org/volume-11/why-do-states-give-up-nuclear-

arsenals.html http://www.acq.osd.mil/tc/treaties/start1/execsum.htm http://www.undemocracy.com/A-RES-1(I).pdf http://cns.miis.edu/npr/pdfs/ogilvi41.pdf http://www.un.org/en/globalissues/atomicenergy/ http://www.un.org/en/globalissues/atomicenergy/agreements.shtml http://www.iaea.org/About/history.html

Thank you!