Upload
butlercaroye
View
280
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Presented at ACTE Conference Prague October 2009. A social and economic statistical overview of Asia Pacific, plus some travel management comments
Citation preview
Asia Pacific
Economic Snapshot and Outlook
1. A Very Varied Region
2. Different Economies and Outlooks
3. Risks
4. The China Focus
5. Don’t forget Japan and India
6. But China is the Wildcard
7. APAC Travel Management Centres
8. APAC TM Challenges
by Tony O’Connor of Butler Caroye
2 giants, 6 talls, 3 shorts and 2 pygmiesA
V
ery
Var
ied
R
egio
n
A
Ver
y V
arie
d
Reg
ion
With very different lifestyles
Based on very different incomesA
V
ery
Var
ied
R
egio
n
Generated by very different economiesD
iffe
ren
t E
con
om
ies
The current mixed bag of economic performanceD
iffe
ren
t E
con
om
ies
Dif
fere
nt
Ou
tlo
oks Very different experiences in the downturn, and different outlooks
Some economies are more exposed and fragile
Ris
ks
Ris
ks
Having very different debt levels, and trade flows
Ris
ks
And varying stimulus firepower, and growing asset bubble risks
The China Focus
Japan is much bigger. Why is China the focus? Because ...
China = the cashed up factory of the world. Many now depend.
Japan and India
Japan = the massive Asian economy, stuck in debt recovery mud
India = the smaller, more internal, high growth, steadying hand
China is the Wildcard
The 2 Year Risk = “Chimerica” being replaced by a massive one-off
stimulus. So either Chinese internal demand takes off, or external
demand recovers quickly, or ... ???
The 1 Year Risk = the classic emerging market asset bubble. The foam is reforming ...
The Anytime Risk = The inevitable earthquake of revaluing the yuan
The 20 Year Risk = A tip of the “Thousand Year Disunity Cycle”
Whatever happens to demand, stocks, currency or politically, the economic consequences will flow through America to the world.
Asian Pacific TM Centres
MumDelBang
ShangBei
Tokyo
SinHonk
MelSyd
Developing Markets
•Thailand•Indonesia•Korea•Taiwan•Philippines•Vietnam
and their attributes
very different
Asian Pacific Challengesfor travel buyers
TMCs are mostly not seamless and integrated across the region.
Different systems, processes, P&Ls, cultures
Systems differ, and vary greatly in availability and quality – OBTs,
EMSs, GDSs
Accommodation: Assess DP carefully, and grab the rate dips
Commissions: Huge variations in levels and attitudes
Be very careful of regional and global deals covering Asia Pac.
Justify why, not why not.