O PROJETO PIRATA & sua importncia para a previso climtica regional.Paulo NobreCPTEC/INPEIIIX Reunio de Anlise Climtica do Nordeste/2003Recife, 4-5 de setembro de 2003Paulo NobreCPTEC/INPE

X-ISABP Arraial do Cabo, RJ23 August 2004

The PIRATA RationalTo provide a better description of the two main modes of Tropical Atlantic SST variability, namely the:Equatorial mode: [interannual]Meridional mode: [decadal]

The PIRATA PROJECT

THE PIRATA BACKBONE

PIRATA BRAZIL

Marine Operations

PIRATA SATELLITE DATA RELAY

PIRATA buoy data available on near-real time on the Internet:12N 38W0N 23WAUG 23, 2004TEMPERATURESOLAR RADIATION

Solar Radiation EstimatesPIRATAPIRATAPIRATA 8N-38WGOESPIRATA 8N-38WGOES0.04 degree resolution0.5 degree resolution

Buoy Data Received at CPTEC from GTS within a 24h period.

PIRATA BACKBONE & SW EXTENSION Background Map: Long term mean No. SST observations/month (COADS)

PIRATA ARRAY

The PIRATA SWE: Why It?To complement PIRATAs ITCZ study (the meridional SST mode) To expand PIRATA, including SACZ sea-air exchanges and tropics-extra tropics interactionsTo improve regional climate predictability

ObjectivesImproving knowledge of ocean-atmospheric interactions over the tropical South Atlantic toward generating skillful SST predictionsModeling effort to improve coupled o-a models and forecasting toolsEnhancing oceanographic and meteorological observational infrastructure over the tropical South Atlantic

Mechanisms to be studiedSITCZ-Cold Tong Complex (Grodsky and Carton, 2002)Western Atlantic Warm Pool (Huang and Carton, 1995)Eastern Nordeste seasonal rainfall predictability (Rao and Lima, 1993)SACZ-SST feedback processes (Chaves and Nobre, 2004; Barreiro and Chang, 2003)

An enhanced observational network over the SW Atlantic: BenefitsBoth satellite altimetry and tide gauges measurements along the coast and islands are necessary for an effective monitoring of mean sea level.T-S vertical profiles are needed to estimate the amount of heat stored on the upper ocean.

Density Anomaly Advection by the South Equatorial Current

SITCZ(Grodsky and Carton, 2002)

SACZ & SSTA : Observations17-25 NOVEMBER 1999

Nobre et al. (2002)

Source regions of Subtropical-Tropical Cell watersFrom: Hazeleger et al. (2003)

Anomaly Correlation: NordesteDry Spells Duration & SST

Catarina Tropical Storm Hits Brazil 26 March 2004

CPTECs Ocean-Atmosphere coupled model suite

Coupled GCM for Weather Prediction: The Catarina Phenomenon

Will extreme events become more frequent in a warmer climate?

Ventos & Correntes PIRATA

Equatorial Undercurrent Simulation at CPTEC

PERSISTENCE MAM SSTA FORECAST SKILLRepelli and Nobre (2004)

SIMOC MAM SSTA FORECAST SKILLRepelli and Nobre (2004)

SIMOC SSTA FORECAST SKILLNorth AtlanticSouth AtlanticNOVEMBERDECEMBERRepelli and Nobre (2004)

Nobre et al. (2002)

Chaves (2003)WARM-COLD SST OGCM EXPERIMENTS

CPTECs Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere model suite