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OA2020 – initiative for the large-scale
transformation of the subscription system
Dr Ralf Schimmer, Max Planck Digital Library
Leveraging the power of institutional budgets and research
outputs to secure the economic benefits of Open Access
1
Agenda
13:00 Welcome and opening host remarks
13:15 Data drivers and policy rationale behind OA2020
14:00 Economic leverage and framework of OA2020
14:45 Break
15:15 Taking publisher negotiations to a new level:
combining subscription licenses with open access
16:00 Developing OA workflows:
MPDL experience and ESAC best practices
16.45 Summary & wrap up
conceptual framework
organizational framework
practical approach
workflow considerations
Data drivers and policy rationale behind
the OA2020 Initiative
Dr Ralf Schimmer, Max Planck Digital Library
1. Key observations behind OA2020
3
Lack of significant progress in the OA movement
4
Open Access is (exceptionally) strong as a principle
─ cf. the many resolutions, policies, guidelines etc.
…but still fairly weak as a practice
─ only 14-15% immediately OA
─ subscription system as prosperous as ever for publishers
(Lehman Brothers did more damage to publisher revenues than OA so far)
The key question
What does it take to make Open Access the
default in scholarly communication?
We may tolerate being 15% away from 100%.
But we simply cannot accept being only 15%
away from 0%.
5
6
Standard OA indicators
a) Directory of Open Access Repositories
http://www.opendoar.org
7
Standard OA indicators
b) Directory of Open Access Journals
http://www.doaj.org
cf. “Dramatic Growth of Open Access 2015 first quarter“ by Heather Morrison,
http://poeticeconomics.blogspot.de/2015/04/dramatic-growth-of-open-access-2015.html
8
Standard OA indicators
c) Registry of Open Access Repository Mandates and Policies
http://roarmap.eprints.org/
Biomed Central
PLOS
SCOAP3
PubMed Central
OA mandates
Repositories
University Presses/OJS
Community journal initiatives (e.g. LINGOA)
Cooperative models
arXiv
OA effects on the paywall system
9
OA effects on the paywall system
10
OA effects on the paywall system
11
14% of content is immediately OA
4% of revenues go to OA (96% subscriptions)
After more than a decade of global effort, paywall access
and the subscription system are as prosperous as ever
OA has been a story of trying to activate researchers
e s e a r c h e r R
12
OA has been a story of trying to activate researchers
OA
Jour-
nals
Poli-
cies Reposi-
tories Publi-
cation
funds Man-
dates
e s e a r c h e r R
Through a variety of measures such as advocacy, mandates and
support efforts the researchers should be moved to OA
13
OA has been a story of trying to activate researchers
OA
Jour-
nals
Poli-
cies Reposi-
tories Publi-
cation
funds Man-
dates
e s e a r c h e r R
Through a variety of measures such as advocacy, mandates and
support efforts the researchers should be moved to OA
14
OA has been a story of trying to activate researchers
OA
Jour-
nals
Poli-
cies Reposi-
tories Publi-
cation
funds Man-
dates
e s e a r c h e r R
Through a variety of measures such as advocacy, mandates and
support efforts the researchers should be moved to OA
15
How about a new activation energy?
Nature
SCIENCE eLife
e s e a r c h e r R
Through switching the business model of the existing corpus of journals
OA shall be brought to the researchers
PLOS
CELL
16
How about a new activation energy?
Nature
SCIENCE eLife
e s e a r c h e r R
Through switching the business model of the existing corpus of journals
OA shall be brought to the researchers
PLOS
CELL
17
How about a new activation energy?
Nature
SCIENCE eLife
e s e a r c h e r R
Through switching the business model of the existing corpus of journals
OA shall be brought to the researchers
PLOS
CELL
18
Bringing OA to the natural habitat of researchers
Not the researchers shall change but the publishing system,
and in particular the underlying business model
Nature
SCIENCE eLife PLOS
CELL
19
2. The idea of OA2020
20
About OA2020
Open Access 2020 is an international initiative
that aims to induce the swift, smooth and
scholarly-oriented transformation of today’s
scholarly journals from subscription to open
access publishing.
21
Proposing an orderly transition
Open Access on a large scale can only be
accomplished if and as soon as we change the
business model of the existing scholarly journals and
leave the subscription system behind.
The pursued disruptions would affect only the
underlying cash flows, rather than the publishing
process itself or the roles of journals and publishers.
22
The power of our spending decisions
23
OA2020 is based on the principle that we, as research
communities, hold the key to success.
By virtue of our own spending decisions we can drive
Open Access into the system.
Exposing the financial demographics of the scholarly
publishing system (cf. 2015 White Paper)
─ there is enough money in the system
─ through the subscription system we are putting in the
range of $5,000 per research paper on the table
Enough money in the system
24
Changing tactics to achieve new robustness
m a n d a t e f o r o u r m o n e y
We don’t need further mandates for researchers
w e n e e d a
25
7.6 bn EUR
Remaining subscription
budget 10%(~0.8 bn EUR)
Open Access volume:
~14% of articles;
~4% of budget
Global level view
26
Transformation means re-allocation of budgets and
conversion of journals and processes
Today‘s global subscription market >> today‘s open access market
Global
subscription journal
budget
7.6 bn EUR p.a.
(≥3,800 EUR/article)
7.6 bn EUR
Remaining subscription
budget 10%(~0.8 bn EUR)
Open Access volume:
~13% of articles;
~4% of budget
Global level view
27
Transformation means re-allocation of budgets and
conversion of journals and processes
2.8 bn EUR buffer for
new & improved
services etc.
(without remaining
subscriptions)
Global
open access journal
base budget
4 bn EUR p.a.
(2,000 €/article)
Assuming 90% conversion
Summarizing the programmatic goal of OA2020
“The time is ripe for the global research community to accelerate the transition to
o p e n a c c e s s .
We have the crucial opportunity to transform the underlying business model of journal
publishing while protecting the financial viability and core functionalities of the publishing
system at large. Ultimately, all subscription spending must be stopped: this is the simple
culmination of the incremental steps of the past decade.
The significant savings can then be reinvested for the co-creation of a range of publishing
services that will truly serve the scholarly endeavors of the 21st century.”
taken from: Max Planck Digital Library Open Access Policy White Paper: “Disrupting the subscription journals’
business model for the necessary large-scale transformation to open access”. http://dx.doi.org/10.17617/1.3 (28 April
2015)
accompanying data publication: “Number of scholarly articles per country. Data on Web of Science listed articles and
reviews 2004-2013”. http://dx.doi.org/10.17617/1.2 (28 April 2015)
28
3. Additional data evidence
29
74% 73% 72% 72% 71% 70% 69% 69% 68% 67%
Share of publications
with a corresponding
author from Germany Data according to Palzenberger, M. (2015). Number of Scholarly Articles per Country. http://dx.doi.org/10.17617/1.2
Germany
Number of articles p.a. 70,673 papers x 2,000 € = ~ 141.3m €
70,673 papers x 1,300 € = ~ 91.9m €
Publication volumes and correspondig author shares
Articles and reviews in Web of Science
76.980 78.966 81.205 84.512
88.127 91.555
96.280 100.198
103.666 104.923
56.994 57.952 58.831 60.668 62.618 64.100 66.774 68.905 70.243 70.673
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
total
corresponding
OA Transformation, 2014 calculation span
73% 72% 73% 71% 70% 69% 69% 67% 64% 63%
Share of publications
with a corresponding
author from South
Africa Data according to Palzenberger, M. (2015). Number of Scholarly Articles per Country. http://dx.doi.org/10.17617/1.2
South Africa
Number of articles p.a. 7,566 papers x 2,000 € = ~ 15.1m €
7,566 papers x 1,300 € = ~ 9.8m €
Publication volumes and corresponding author shares
Articles and reviews in Web of Science
4.804 5.452
6.122
6.955 7.640
8.177
9.497 10.256
10.925
11.948
3.496 3.915
4.451 4.937
5.341 5.653
6.525 6.837 7.024 7.566
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
total
corresponding
OA Transformation, 2014 calculation span
Rare high budget
publications
32
Cost stratification in the publishing system:
OA Gold Publishing
Enhanced marketing
Enhanced branding
Digests (press releases)
Presentation in social
media
Organization of proper
review
Technical platform
Archiving
Frequent low cost publ.
State-of-the-art indexing,
keywording, formatting
Image editing
Basic marketing
Cost monitoring I
33
Cost stratification in the publishing system:
Hybrid Publishing vs OA Gold
Hybrid OA Gold
Cost monitoring II
34
Collecting APC evidence via the OpenAPC Initiative
Open APC Offsetting data set
http://treemaps.intact-
project.org/apcdata/offsetting/
Open APC
http://treemaps.intact-
project.org/apcdata/openapc/ (e.g. Germany)
Universities and research institutions globally are invited to contribute their APC
expenditure data to Open APC in order to build up a comprehensive data set that allows
for extensive analyses and fosters transparency on the evolving APC market.
Cost monitoring III
4. Symptoms of a deteriorating system
35
36
SciHub – the ‘Napster moment’ for publishing
http://31.184.194.81/
37
1 John Bohannon: Who’s downloading pirated papers? Everyone, in: Science Mag, Apr. 28, 2016.
http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/04/whos-downloading-pirated-papers-everyone
Going to SciHub is not only an act of necessity! It is an expression of convenience!
SciHub:
Holding a painful lesson for libraries and publishers
The publishing system as we know it
Opening the eyes to a deteriorating system
38
Publishers & libraries together desperately stabilize a disintegrating anachronistic
system that is not needed and wanted anymore in a 21st century environment
39
Exposing the nakedness of the subscription system
The Emperor's New Clothes, a fairy tale by Hans Christian Andersen, Denmark (1837)
1 https://41.media.tumblr.com/0e1dbf83f053703568913d04a526fcb1/tumblr_inline_o3m3oc2kCO1sxr3js_540.jpg
40
Exposing the nakedness of the subscription system
41
Exposing the nakedness of the subscription system
Isn’t SciHub exposing the nakedness of the ruler just as the little girl did in
Andersen’s fairy tale? Can we really do business as usual now that we know this?
42
Exposing the nakedness of the subscription system
Isn’t SciHub exposing the nakedness of the ruler just as the little girl did in
Andersen’s fairy tale? Can we really do business as usual now that we know this?
43
Exposing the nakedness of the subscription system
Isn’t SciHub exposing the nakedness of the ruler just as the little girl did in
Andersen’s fairy tale? Can we really do business as usual now that we know this?
44
Exposing the nakedness of the subscription system
Isn’t SciHub exposing the nakedness of the ruler just as the little girl did in
Andersen’s fairy tale? Can we really do business as usual now that we know this?
Lessons from SciHub, ResearchGate, OAfindr,
oaDOI, Unpaywall et al.
45
The current paywall system is undeniably outdated and
dysfunctional
─ not providing sufficient user experience
How can we rationalize and justify continued
investment in the current system?
─ more and more alternatives out there
─ less risky to move away from subscriptions than
ever before
46
Time to unplug the system
47
Time to unplug the system
We need to discontinue the subscription system and to find new ways to
finance the publishing services that are wanted and needed in the 21st century
48
Time to unplug the system
We need to discontinue the subscription system and to find new ways to
finance the publishing services that are wanted and needed in the 21st century