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Observations of Environmental and Climate Change in Southeast Alaska Dr. Linda Kruger, Social Scientist, USFS Dr. Jim Powell, Research Fellow, UAF Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning

Observations of Environmental and Climate Change in Southeast Alaska Dr. Linda Kruger, Social Scientist, USFS Dr. Jim Powell, Research Fellow, UAF Scenarios

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Page 1: Observations of Environmental and Climate Change in Southeast Alaska Dr. Linda Kruger, Social Scientist, USFS Dr. Jim Powell, Research Fellow, UAF Scenarios

Observations of Environmental and Climate Change in Southeast Alaska

Dr. Linda Kruger, Social Scientist, USFS

Dr. Jim Powell, Research Fellow, UAF

Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic

Planning

Page 2: Observations of Environmental and Climate Change in Southeast Alaska Dr. Linda Kruger, Social Scientist, USFS Dr. Jim Powell, Research Fellow, UAF Scenarios

FEDERAL TRUST RESPONSIBILITY

The U.S. Government has a unique relationship with Federally-recognized tribal entities.

Federal agencies consult with Tribes on policies and programs including research activities.

Page 3: Observations of Environmental and Climate Change in Southeast Alaska Dr. Linda Kruger, Social Scientist, USFS Dr. Jim Powell, Research Fellow, UAF Scenarios

ACKNOWLEDGE Todd Brinkman, PhD – UAF, SNAP Scott Rupp, PhD - UAF, Dir. SNAP Lauren Sill, ADF&G, Division of Subsistence Yakutat Tlingit Tribe, City of Thorne Bay, Angoon Community Association, Klawock

Cooperative Association, Kassan City Council Dan Monteith, PhD - UAS Ivan Show, PhD - ADF&G, Com. Fish Ellen Frankenstein, MS. Visual Anthropology, film maker, Artchangeinc.org Eran Hood, PhD, UAS

Page 4: Observations of Environmental and Climate Change in Southeast Alaska Dr. Linda Kruger, Social Scientist, USFS Dr. Jim Powell, Research Fellow, UAF Scenarios

ECOLOGICAL KNOWLEDGE

Tribes have locally relevant knowledge that can help us understand traditional approaches to land and resource management, environmental changes and human response to change.

A survey of tribes identified the integration of traditional knowledge with western science as a tribal priority (Beatty & Leighton 2012).

Page 5: Observations of Environmental and Climate Change in Southeast Alaska Dr. Linda Kruger, Social Scientist, USFS Dr. Jim Powell, Research Fellow, UAF Scenarios

FOREST SERVICE DIRECTION

US Forest Service Tribal Relations Strategic Plan – provides a framework for the Forest Service Tribal Relations Program.

Goal 1 – American Indian and Alaska Native Rights

Goal 2 - Partnerships Goal 3 – Program Development

Page 6: Observations of Environmental and Climate Change in Southeast Alaska Dr. Linda Kruger, Social Scientist, USFS Dr. Jim Powell, Research Fellow, UAF Scenarios

RESEARCH TRIBAL ENGAGEMENT ROADMAP

R & D Objectives Build new and enhance existing partnerships. Institutionalize Tribal trust responsibilities

and engagement within R&D. Increase and advance Tribal and indigenous

values, knowledge and perspectives within USFS R&D, including in operational and research activities.

Network & cooperate across FS to increase response to needs

Conduct joint research with Tribes.

Page 7: Observations of Environmental and Climate Change in Southeast Alaska Dr. Linda Kruger, Social Scientist, USFS Dr. Jim Powell, Research Fellow, UAF Scenarios

OBSERVING AND EXPERIENCING CHANGE

Across the Pacific Northwest and Alaska climate change is affecting hunting, fishing, gathering, economic infrastructure, water, forest and agricultural resources and human health. Alaska Natives, American Indians and First Nations are on the frontline of this change.

Page 8: Observations of Environmental and Climate Change in Southeast Alaska Dr. Linda Kruger, Social Scientist, USFS Dr. Jim Powell, Research Fellow, UAF Scenarios

INDIGENOUS KNOWLEDGE AND CONNECTION TO PLACE

Native cultures and identity are directly tied to the places people have lived for generations through observations, stories, dances, art, music and traditions. It is this connection that makes climate change much more personal and impactful to Native people.

Page 9: Observations of Environmental and Climate Change in Southeast Alaska Dr. Linda Kruger, Social Scientist, USFS Dr. Jim Powell, Research Fellow, UAF Scenarios

RURAL SOUTHEAST ALASKA

What changes have local residents noticed and how are they responding?

How can we learn from observations and experiences and share and apply what we learn?

What information and tools are needed to help in adapting to change?

Page 10: Observations of Environmental and Climate Change in Southeast Alaska Dr. Linda Kruger, Social Scientist, USFS Dr. Jim Powell, Research Fellow, UAF Scenarios

PRESENTATION

SE Region - 3 Areas

Assumptions - subsistence gatherers

Study methods

Community stories

Integration – local and scientific knowledge

Next Steps

Page 11: Observations of Environmental and Climate Change in Southeast Alaska Dr. Linda Kruger, Social Scientist, USFS Dr. Jim Powell, Research Fellow, UAF Scenarios

Collaborations

• Tribal Groups

• Alaska Dept. of Fish & Game Household Surveys, 2 Questions added Correlated responses

• UAS – School of Management / MPA

• UA - EPSCoR and UAS Southeast Test Case

Page 12: Observations of Environmental and Climate Change in Southeast Alaska Dr. Linda Kruger, Social Scientist, USFS Dr. Jim Powell, Research Fellow, UAF Scenarios

SE Alaska Thumbnail Demographics

- 33 communities

- How we make a living –fish, gov.,

mining,

timber,

- Cultural diversity– lots

- Rural and non rural

- Isolation – closeness

Page 13: Observations of Environmental and Climate Change in Southeast Alaska Dr. Linda Kruger, Social Scientist, USFS Dr. Jim Powell, Research Fellow, UAF Scenarios
Page 14: Observations of Environmental and Climate Change in Southeast Alaska Dr. Linda Kruger, Social Scientist, USFS Dr. Jim Powell, Research Fellow, UAF Scenarios

Yakutat

Klawock

Angoon

Kassan

Thorne Bay

Craig

Southeast Alaska Study Areas

Page 15: Observations of Environmental and Climate Change in Southeast Alaska Dr. Linda Kruger, Social Scientist, USFS Dr. Jim Powell, Research Fellow, UAF Scenarios

Interviews 2013Communit

yPopulatio

nPercent of AK

Natives

Number of interviews

Expert or Elders Groups

Angoon 466 76 % 33 1

Yakutat 646 36 % 25 2

Thorne Bay

496 2.1 % 25 1

Craig 1240 20 % 2 0

Kassan 67 95 % 2 0

Klawock 777 48 % 3 0

Totals 90 4

Page 16: Observations of Environmental and Climate Change in Southeast Alaska Dr. Linda Kruger, Social Scientist, USFS Dr. Jim Powell, Research Fellow, UAF Scenarios

Study Questions

1. Top 5 issues for your community?

2. What kinds of environmental changes have you noticed in your community?

3. What environmental changes have you experienced or heard Elders or others in your community talk about?

4. How might these changes affect your community?

5. Are there any environmental changes that would

threaten or strengthen your community?

Page 17: Observations of Environmental and Climate Change in Southeast Alaska Dr. Linda Kruger, Social Scientist, USFS Dr. Jim Powell, Research Fellow, UAF Scenarios

Study Questions

6. What long standing activities (traditional or cultural) might be affected and how?

8. How are you responding?

Page 18: Observations of Environmental and Climate Change in Southeast Alaska Dr. Linda Kruger, Social Scientist, USFS Dr. Jim Powell, Research Fellow, UAF Scenarios

Yakutat

Weather

Fish, wildlife, plants

Environmental Cue

Culture and Adaptation

Point

Gilbert

Page 19: Observations of Environmental and Climate Change in Southeast Alaska Dr. Linda Kruger, Social Scientist, USFS Dr. Jim Powell, Research Fellow, UAF Scenarios

Yakutat Alaska

Page 20: Observations of Environmental and Climate Change in Southeast Alaska Dr. Linda Kruger, Social Scientist, USFS Dr. Jim Powell, Research Fellow, UAF Scenarios

“Spring is cooler…seems to take longer to get started, plants and stuff”

“…from the time I used to troll and commercial fish ocean currents are moving faster”

Page 21: Observations of Environmental and Climate Change in Southeast Alaska Dr. Linda Kruger, Social Scientist, USFS Dr. Jim Powell, Research Fellow, UAF Scenarios

Yakutat Airport

Snow

“We lived in a trailer and the dogs lived on the roof”

Page 22: Observations of Environmental and Climate Change in Southeast Alaska Dr. Linda Kruger, Social Scientist, USFS Dr. Jim Powell, Research Fellow, UAF Scenarios

“seal population – holding good”

“coho run isn’t as strong as use to be”

“we use to be the silver salmon capital of the world”.

“we go out further and further for clams”

“Once the tide goes out your dinner table is set”

Page 23: Observations of Environmental and Climate Change in Southeast Alaska Dr. Linda Kruger, Social Scientist, USFS Dr. Jim Powell, Research Fellow, UAF Scenarios

A member of the Mount St. Elias dancers participates in the Yakutat Tern Festival. http://www.fs.usda.gov/detail/r10/learning/history-culture/

“The culture is as strong as ever”.

“The last couple of times I’ve worked in the kitchen for potlatches we scrambled for berries”

“everybody was wondering what happened to the berries. … freeze, thaw, and freeze again. Lucky if you could find a berry.”

Page 24: Observations of Environmental and Climate Change in Southeast Alaska Dr. Linda Kruger, Social Scientist, USFS Dr. Jim Powell, Research Fellow, UAF Scenarios

“So none of us are going to change. We are going to continue to strive to be more of who we are”

“we have a history of taking only what we can use and to make sure that renewable resources like fish and seal would be there for generations”

Members of the Mt. St. Elias Dancers from Yakutat perform at the UAF Festival of Native Arts. Photo by Todd Paris

Page 25: Observations of Environmental and Climate Change in Southeast Alaska Dr. Linda Kruger, Social Scientist, USFS Dr. Jim Powell, Research Fellow, UAF Scenarios

Hubbard Glacier

“Jar our fish rather then do the smoke strips”

“We eat more meat now then we used to eat I put more dry fish up.”

Page 26: Observations of Environmental and Climate Change in Southeast Alaska Dr. Linda Kruger, Social Scientist, USFS Dr. Jim Powell, Research Fellow, UAF Scenarios

ANGOON

Wildlife

Frogs / Toads

Herring

Page 27: Observations of Environmental and Climate Change in Southeast Alaska Dr. Linda Kruger, Social Scientist, USFS Dr. Jim Powell, Research Fellow, UAF Scenarios

“before we had to concern yourself with walking on frogs, there are no more frogs around”

“hunting seems to be fine”

Page 28: Observations of Environmental and Climate Change in Southeast Alaska Dr. Linda Kruger, Social Scientist, USFS Dr. Jim Powell, Research Fellow, UAF Scenarios

HERRING“you use to use a flat stick, you’d put nails on it and cut it off and rake them inside the boat”

“the water was boiling like a real heavy rain it was load you could hear the boat motors running”

“There was so much herring in the boat harbor, bubbling up”

Page 29: Observations of Environmental and Climate Change in Southeast Alaska Dr. Linda Kruger, Social Scientist, USFS Dr. Jim Powell, Research Fellow, UAF Scenarios

Thorne Bay

Weather

Wildlife

Page 30: Observations of Environmental and Climate Change in Southeast Alaska Dr. Linda Kruger, Social Scientist, USFS Dr. Jim Powell, Research Fellow, UAF Scenarios

Thorne Bay

Weather around here are hit or miss.

“Deer had tunnels through the snow berms”

“I remember when the Bay was froze across. So hard that it took a tug coming from the Pulp-Mill to break it open so planes could land”

Page 31: Observations of Environmental and Climate Change in Southeast Alaska Dr. Linda Kruger, Social Scientist, USFS Dr. Jim Powell, Research Fellow, UAF Scenarios

KASSAN

Weather

Adaptation

Page 32: Observations of Environmental and Climate Change in Southeast Alaska Dr. Linda Kruger, Social Scientist, USFS Dr. Jim Powell, Research Fellow, UAF Scenarios

“winters are milder”

“ice not as thick,more extreme tides”

Page 33: Observations of Environmental and Climate Change in Southeast Alaska Dr. Linda Kruger, Social Scientist, USFS Dr. Jim Powell, Research Fellow, UAF Scenarios

Kassan Whale House

If the salmon don’t show up we will look for other species”

Page 34: Observations of Environmental and Climate Change in Southeast Alaska Dr. Linda Kruger, Social Scientist, USFS Dr. Jim Powell, Research Fellow, UAF Scenarios

Craig Tidelands

“Storm are more intense and beaches are starting to erode”

Page 35: Observations of Environmental and Climate Change in Southeast Alaska Dr. Linda Kruger, Social Scientist, USFS Dr. Jim Powell, Research Fellow, UAF Scenarios

“Use to see rafts of ducks now you see rafts of otters”

Page 36: Observations of Environmental and Climate Change in Southeast Alaska Dr. Linda Kruger, Social Scientist, USFS Dr. Jim Powell, Research Fellow, UAF Scenarios

Area Scientific Projections Local Observations

Weather

• Temp. increase approx. 10°F by 2100.

• Temp. increased as much as 3.6°F during the

20th century.

• Largest increase in winter months.

• Rates of warming higher in later part of the

20th century

• Unpredictable

• No longer used as

guide

• Colder, longer

springs

• No more Ice in bays

Vegetation• Shrubs and trees will have colonized

elevations currently characterized as alpine or tundra habitat

• Forest Productivity will likely increase

• Berries more

variable

• Haven’t seen any

change

• Less Strawberries

Precipitation

• Average winter snowfall at sea level in Juneau decreased from 109 inches to 93 inches in the past 60 years

• The average winter increased by 2.6 inches or more

• Less Snow Cover

Natural Science and Local Climate Change Integration

Page 37: Observations of Environmental and Climate Change in Southeast Alaska Dr. Linda Kruger, Social Scientist, USFS Dr. Jim Powell, Research Fellow, UAF Scenarios

Area Scientific Projections Local Observations

MarineSea level

Rise

• Isostatic rebound is likely to cancel relative sea level rise. Leading to Relative sea level decrease

• Increase in whales • increase in sea otters

• decrease in fish

• seals holding good

• No longer eels

Icefield Icefield will continue to thin & retreat (Juneau)

• Advancing – Yakutat

• Retreating - Juneau

Ecological

Response

• Many changes not be predictable and some may be counterintuitive. Ex: yellow cedar trees are freezing in spring as temp. warms due to a loss of insulating snow cover.

• Effects on salmon largely unknown• Wetland nursery areas for marine species• Plants & animals ability to adapt w/ rapid changes

• where have the frogs gone?

• Use to see rafts of ducks, now its rafts of sea otters

• Bees, where have they gone?

Natural Science and Local Climate Change Integration

Page 38: Observations of Environmental and Climate Change in Southeast Alaska Dr. Linda Kruger, Social Scientist, USFS Dr. Jim Powell, Research Fellow, UAF Scenarios

Next Steps:

Video editing

Institutional Change in SE

Page 39: Observations of Environmental and Climate Change in Southeast Alaska Dr. Linda Kruger, Social Scientist, USFS Dr. Jim Powell, Research Fellow, UAF Scenarios

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION

Forest Service Research Tribal Engagementwww.fs.fed.us/research/tribal-engagement

PNW Tribal Climate Change Networkhttp://tribalclimate.uoregon.edu/

Institute for Tribal Environment Professionalswww4.nau.edu/tribalclimatechange/

Page 40: Observations of Environmental and Climate Change in Southeast Alaska Dr. Linda Kruger, Social Scientist, USFS Dr. Jim Powell, Research Fellow, UAF Scenarios

THANK YOU

Linda Kruger – [email protected]

907-586-7814

Jim Powell - [email protected] 907-209-5676