Ocean Carrier

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University of Navarra

Ocean Carriers


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Prof. A. Rahnema 2

Tarifa a 3-aos y el spread con spot

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Tarifa 3-aos Spread


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Prof. A. Rahnema 3

Flujos de Capital de Trabajo (CT)Supuestos:

Capital de trabajo inicial US $ 500000

Tasa de inflac in esperada 3%

C a p ita l d R cup e ra ci F luj de

A o Tra b a jo V a ri a ci Fi a l C T

200 2 500 500 -500

2003 515 15 -15

2004 530 15 -15

2005 546 16 -16

2006 563 16 -16

2007 580 17 -17

2008 597 17 -17

2009 615 18 -18

2010 633 18 -18

2011 652 19 -19

201 2 67 2 20 -20

2013 692 20 -20

2014 713 21 -21

2015 734 21 -21

2016 756 22 -22

2017 779 23 -23

2018 802 23 -232019 826 24 -24

2020 851 25 -25

2021 877 26 -26

2022 90 3 26 -26

2023 930 27 -27

2024 958 28 -28

2025 987 29 -29

2026 1,016 30 -30

2027 1,016 1,016


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Prof. A. Rahnema 5

Flujos OperativosSupuestos:

Ingresos Tarifa diaria de alqui ler x Dias rentado durante el a o

Gastos Operativos Gastos operativos diarios x 365 das del a

o

Tasa Impositiva 35%

Tasa de inflacin esperada 3%

Tarifa Gastos (A) (B) (A+B)

Edad de Ao de Ao diaria de operativos Das Gastos Depreciaci

Flujos

Barco evento calendario alquiler diarios rentado Ingre sos operativos total BAIT Impuestos BAIDT Operativos

0 2000

1 2001

2 2002

1 3 2003 20,000 4,000 357 7,140,000 1,460,000 1,560,000 4,120,000 1,442,000 2,678,000 4,238,000

2 4 2004 20,000 4,160 357 7,140,000 1,518,400 1,560,000 4,061,600 1,421,560 2,640,040 4,200,040

3 5 2005 20,000 4,326 357 7,140,000 1,579,136 1,560,000 4,000,864 1,400,302 2,600,562 4,160,562

4 6 2006 18,714 4,499 357 6,680,898 1,642,301 1,560,000 3,478,597 1,217,509 2,261,088 3,821,088

5 7 2007 17,283 4,679 357 6,170,031 1,707,993 1,560,000 2,902,038 1,015,713 1,886,324 3,446,3246 8 2008 17,483 4,867 353 6,171,323 1,776,313 1,620,000 2,775,009 971,253 1,803,756 3,423,756

7 9 2009 17,683 5,061 353 6,242,134 1,847,366 1,620,000 2,774,769 971,169 1,803,600 3,423,600

8 10 2010 17,887 5,264 353 6,314,040 1,921,260 1,620,000 2,772,780 970,473 1,802,307 3,422,307

9 11 2011 18,093 5,474 353 6,386,688 1,998,111 1,620,000 2,768,577 969,002 1,799,575 3,419,575

10 12 2012 17,429 5,693 353 6,152,437 2,078,035 1,620,000 2,454,402 859,041 1,595,361 3,215,361

11 13 2013 17,629 5,921 349 6,152,521 2,161,157 1,630,000 2,361,364 826,478 1,534,887 3,164,887

12 14 2014 17,832 6,158 349 6,223,368 2,247,603 1,630,000 2,345,765 821,018 1,524,747 3,154,747

13 15 2015 18,037 6,404 349 6,294,913 2,337,507 1,630,000 2,327,406 814,592 1,512,814 3,142,814

14 16 2016 18,245 6,660 349 6,367,505 2,431,007 1,630,000 2,306,498 807,274 1,499,223 3,129,223

15 17 2017 14,763 6,927 349 5,152,357 2,528,248 1,630,000 994,109 347,938 646,171 2,276,171

16 18 2018 14,934 7,204 349 5,211,826 2,629,378 1,710,000 872,449 305,357 567,092 2,277,092

17 19 2019 15,105 7,492 349 5,271,575 2,734,553 1,710,000 827,023 289,458 537,565 2,247,56518 20 2020 15,278 7,792 349 5,332,162 2,843,935 1,710,000 778,227 272,379 505,847 2,215,847

19 21 2021 15,454 8,103 349 5,393,586 2,957,692 1,710,000 725,893 254,063 471,831 2,181,831

20 22 2022 14,655 8,427 349 5,114,595 3,076,000 1,710,000 328,595 115,008 213,587 1,923,587

21 23 2023 14,824 8,764 349 5,173,506 3,199,040 1,730,000 244,466 85,563 158,903 1,888,903

22 24 2024 14,994 9,115 349 5,232,906 3,327,001 1,730,000 175,905 61,567 114,338 1,844,338

23 25 2025 15,167 9,480 349 5,293,109 3,460,081 1,730,000 103,027 36,059 66,968 1,796,968

24 26 2026 15,341 9,859 349 5,354,114 3,598,485 1,730,000 25,629 8,970 16,659 1,746,659

25 27 2027 13,449 10,253 349 4,693,527 3,742,424 1,730,000 -778,898 0 -778,898 951,102


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Prof. A. Rahnema 6

VAN de ProyectoSupuest s:

TasaImpositi

a 35%

Tasade i flaci esperada 3%

Tasadedescuento 9%

Edadde Ao de Ao lujos Compra lujos de lujos

Bar

o e ve nto

alendario operativos de bar

o CAPEX CT Tota l

0 2000 -3,900 -

,! " "

1 2001 -3,900 -

,! " "

2 2002 -31,200 -500 -

# ,$ " "

1 3 2003 4,238 -15%

,& &

2 4 2004 4,200 -15%

, #'

(

3 5 2005 4,161 -16%

, #%

(

4 6 2006 3, ) 21 -16

,' " (

5 7 2007 3,446 -300 -17

, #& !

6 8 2008 3,424 -17

,% " 0

7 9 2009 3,424 -18

,% " 0

8 10 2010 3,422 -18

,% " %

9 11 2011 3,420 -19

,% "

#

10 12 2012 3,215 -350 -20&

,' % 0

11 13 2013 3,165 -20

, #%

(

12 14 2014 3,155 -21

, # %

13 15 2015 3,143 -21

, #&

#

14 16 2016 3,129 -22

, #"

$

15 17 2017 2,276 -750 -23 # ,( "

16 18 2018 2,277 -23&

,&

(%

17 19 2019 2,248 -24

&

,

& &

18 20 2020 2,216 -25&

, #!

#

19 21 2021 2,182 -26&

, #(

0

20 22 2022 1,924 -850 -26 # ," %

$

21 23 2023 1,889 -27 # ,' 0 &

22 24 2024 1,844 -28 # ,'

#

0

23 25 2025 1,797 -29 # ,$ 0 '

24 26 2026 1,747 -30 # ,$

#

$

25 27 2027 951 1,016 # ,! 0 $

1

AN @ 9% -$

, ' $


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Prof. A. Rahnema 7

Flujos Operativos (sin impuestos)Supuestos:

Ingre 2 o 2 Tari3

a diaria de al4 5

ilerx Dia 2 rentado d 5 rante el ao

Ga2 to 2 Operati6

o 2 Ga2 to 2 operati6

o 2 diario 2 x 365 da 2 del ao

Ta2 a Impo2 iti6

a 0%

Ta2

a de infla7

i8

n e2

perada 3%

Tarifa Gastos (A) (B) (A+B)

Eda d de Ao de Ao dia ria de ope ra ti9

os Das Gastos Depreciacin Flujos

Ba rco e9

ento calendario a lquiler diarios rentado Ingresos operati9

os total BAIT I@

puestos BAIDTA

perati9

os

0 2000

1 2001

2 2002

1 3 2003 20,000 4,000 357 7,140,000 1,460,000 1,560,000 4,120,000 0 4,120,000 5,680,000

2 4 2004 20,000 4,160 357 7,140,000 1,518,400 1,560,000 4,061,600 0 4,061,600 5,621,600

3 5 2005 20,000 4,326 357 7,140,000 1,579,136 1,560,000 4,000,864 0 4,000,864 5,560,864

4 6 2006 18,714 4,499 357 6,680,898 1,642,301 1,560,000 3,478,597 0 3,478,597 5,038,597

5 7 2007 17,283 4,679 357 6,170, 031 1,707,993 1,560,000 2,902,038 0 2,902,038 4,462,0386 8 2008 17,483 4,867 353 6, 171, 323 1, 776,313 1,620,000 2,775,009 0 2,775,009 4,395,009

7 9 2009 17,683 5,061 353 6, 242, 134 1,847,366 1,620,000 2,774,769 0 2,774,769 4,394,769

8 10 2010 17,887 5,264 353 6,314,040 1,921,260 1,620,000 2,772,780 0 2,772,780 4,392,780

9 11 2011 18,093 5,474 353 6,386,688 1,998,111 1,620,000 2,768,577 0 2,768,577 4,388,577

10 12 2012 17,429 5,693 353 6,152, 437 2, 078,035 1,620,000 2,454,402 0 2,454,402 4,074,402

11 13 2013 17,629 5,921 349 6,152,521 2,161,157 1,630,000 2,361,364 0 2,361,364 3,991,364

12 14 2014 17,832 6,158 349 6,223,368 2,247,603 1,630,000 2,345,765 0 2,345,765 3,975,765

13 15 2015 18,037 6,404 349 6,294,913 2,337,507 1,630,000 2,327,406 0 2,327,406 3,957,406

14 16 2016 18,245 6,660 349 6,367,505 2,431,007 1,630,000 2,306,498 0 2,306,498 3,936,498

15 17 2017 14,763 6,927 349 5,152,357 2,528,248 1,630,000 994,109 0 994,109 2,624,109

16 18 2018 14,934 7,204 349 5,211,826 2,629,378 1,710,000 872,449 0 872,449 2,582,449

17 19 2019 15,105 7,492 349 5,271,575 2,734,553 1,710,000 827,023 0 827,023 2,537,02318 20 2020 15,278 7,792 349 5,332,162 2,843,935 1,710,000 778,227 0 778,227 2,488,227

19 21 2021 15,454 8,103 349 5,393,586 2,957,692 1,710,000 725,893 0 725,893 2,435,893

20 22 2022 14,655 8,427 349 5,114,595 3,076, 000 1, 710, 000 328,595 0 328,595 2,038,595

21 23 2023 14,824 8,764 349 5,173,506 3,199,040 1,730,000 244,466 0 244,466 1,974,466

22 24 2024 14,994 9,115 349 5,232,906 3,327,001 1,730,000 175,905 0 175,905 1,905,905

23 25 2025 15,167 9,480 349 5, 293, 109 3, 460,081 1,730,000 103,027 0 103,027 1,833,027

24 26 2026 15,341 9,859 349 5,354,114 3,598,485 1,730,000 25,629 0 25,629 1,755,629

25 27 2027 13,449 10,253 349 4,693,527 3, 742, 424 1, 730, 000 -778,898 0 -778,898 951,102


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Prof. A. Rahnema 8

VAN de Proyecto (sin impuestos)S u p u e sto s:

Tas a Im pos it iB

a 35%

Tas a de in flac i C n espe rada 3 %

Tas a de desc D en to 9 %

Ed a d d e A o d e A o F l u jo s C o m p ra F l u jo sd e F lu jo s

B a rco e ve n to ca le nd a r io o p e ra ti vo s d e b a rco C A P EX C T T o ta l

0 2 0 0 0 -3 , 9 0 0 -3 ,900

1 2 0 0 1 -3 , 9 0 0 -3 ,900

2 2 0 0 2 -3 1 ,2 0 0 -5 0 0 -31 ,700

1 3 2 0 0 3 5 ,680 -15 5 ,665

2 4 2 0 0 4 5 ,6 2 2 -15 5 ,606

3 5 2 0 05 5 ,561 -16 5 ,545

4 6 2 0 06 5 ,0 3 9 -16 5 ,022

5 7 2 0 0 7 4 ,4 62 -3 0 0 -1 7 4 ,145

6 8 2 0 08 4 ,3 95 -1 7 4 ,3787 9 2 0 0 9 4 ,3 95 -18 4 ,377

8 1 0 2 0 1 0 4 ,3 9 3 -18 4 ,374

9 1 1 2 0 1 1 4 ,3 89 -1 9 4 ,370

1 0 1 2 2 0 1 2 4 ,0 7 4 -3 5 0 -2 0 3 ,705

1 1 1 3 2 0 1 3 3 ,9 9 1 -2 0 3 ,971

1 2 1 4 2 0 1 4 3 ,9 76 -2 1 3 ,955

1 3 15 2 0 15 3 ,9 57 -2 1 3 ,936

1 4 16 2 0 16 3 ,9 36 -2 2 3 ,914

15 1 7 2 0 1 7 2 ,6 2 4 -7 5 0 -2 3 1 ,851

16 18 2 0 18 2 ,582 -2 3 2 ,559

1 7 1 9 2 0 1 9 2 ,5 3 7 -2 4 2 ,513

18 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 ,4 88 -25 2 ,463

1 9 2 1 2 0 2 1 2 ,4 36 -26 2 ,410

2 0 2 2 2 0 2 2 2 ,0 3 9 -85 0 -26 1 ,162

2 1 2 3 2 0 2 3 1 ,9 7 4 -2 7 1 ,947

2 2 2 4 2 0 2 4 1 ,9 06 -28 1 ,878

2 3 25 2 0 25 1 ,8 3 3 -2 9 1 ,804

2 4 26 2 0 26 1 ,7 56 -3 0 1 ,726

25 2 7 2 0 2 7 9 51 1 , 0 1 6 1 ,967

V AN E

9% 227


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Prof. A. Rahnema 9

Flujos de Capital de Trabajo (15 aos)Supuestos:

Capital de trabajo ini ial US$ 500000Ta a de infla i n e perada 3%

Capital de Recuperacin Flujos de

Ao Trabajo Variacin Final CT

2002 500 500 -5002003 515 15 -152004 530 15 -152005 546 16 -162006 563 16 -162007 580 17 -172008 597 17 -172009 615 18 -182010 633 18 -182011 652 19 -19

2012 672 20 -202013 692 20 -202014 713 21 -21

2015 734 21 -212016 756 22 -222017 779 23 756 -756


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Prof. A. Rahnema 11

Flujos Operativos (15 aos)

Supuestos:

Ingresos Tarifadiariadeal G uilerH

Dias rentadoduranteel ao

Gastos I peratiP

os GastosoperatiP

osdiariosH

365dasdel ao

TasaImpositiP

a 35%

Tasade inflaci Q nesperada 3%

Tarifa astos (A) (B) (A+B)

Edadde Ao de Ao diaria de operativos Das astos Depre ia i n lujos

Bar o evento alendario al uiler diarios rentado Ingresos operativos total BAIT Impuestos BAIDT Operativos

0 2000

1 2001

2 2002

1 3 2003 20,000 4,000 357 7,140,000 1,460,000 1,560,000 4, , 1,442,000 2,678,000 4, ,

2 4 2004 20,000 4,160 357 7,140,000 1,518,400 1,560,000 4, , 1,421,560 2,640,040 4, , 40

3 5 2005 20,000 4,326 357 7,140,000 1,579,136 1,560,000 4,000, 4 1,400,302 2,600,562 4, 0,

4 6 2006 18,714 4,499 357 6,680,898 1,642,301 1,560,000 ,478, 97 1,217,509 2,261,088 3,821,088

5 7 2007 17,283 4,679 357 6,170,031 1,707,993 1,560,000 2,902,038 1,015,713 1,886,324 3,446,324

6 8 2008 17,483 4,867 353 6,171,323 1,776,313 1,620,000 2,775,009 971,253 1,803,756 3,423,756

7 9 2009 17,683 5,061 353 6,242,134 1,847,366 1,620,000 2,774,769 971,169 1,803,600 3,423,600

8 10 2010 17,887 5,264 353 6,314,040 1,921,260 1,620,000 2,772,780 970,473 1,802,307 3,422,307

9 11 2011 18,093 5,474 353 6,386,688 1,998,111 1,620,000 2,768,577 969,002 1,799,575 3,419,575

10 12 2012 17,429 5,693 353 6,152,437 2,078,035 1,620,000 2,454,402 859,041 1,595,361 3,215,361

11 13 2013 17,629 5,921 349 6,152,521 2,161,157 1,630,000 2,361,364 826,478 1,534,887 3,164,887

12 14 2014 17,832 6,158 349 6,223,368 2,247,603 1,630,000 2,345,765 821,018 1,524,747 3,154,747

13 15 2015 18,037 6,404 349 6,294,913 2,337,507 1,630,000 2,327,406 814,592 1,512,814 3,142,814

14 16 2016 18,245 6,660 349 6,367,505 2,431,007 1,630,000 2,306,498 807,274 1,499,223 3,129,223

15 17 2017 14,763 6,927 349 5,152,357 2,528,248 1,630,000 994,109 347,938 646,171 2,276,171


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Prof. A. Rahnema 12

VAN de Proyecto (15 aos)SupuesR osS

TasaI pos tiva 35

Tasadeinflacinespe ada 3

Tasadedescuento 9

Ventade

Edadde ode o Flujos o pra Flujosde bar co & Flujos

arco evento calendario operativos debarco PEX T efectofiscal Total

0 2000 -3,900 3,900

1 2001 -3,900 3,900

2 2002 -31,200 -500 31,700

1 3 2003 4,238 -15 4,223

2 4 2004 4,200 -15 4,185

3 5 2005 4,161 -16 4,145

4 6 2006 3,821 -16 3,805

5 7 2007 3,446 -300 -17 3,129

6 8 2008 3,424 -17 3,406

7 9 2009 3,424 -18 3,406

8 10 2010 3,422 -18 3,404

9 11 2011 3,420 -19 3,401

10 12 2012 3,215 -350 -20 2,84611 13 2013 3,165 -20 3,145

12 14 2014 3,155 -21 3,134

13 15 2015 3,143 -21 3,121

14 16 2016 3,129 -22 3,107

15 17 2017 2,276 0 -756 8,710 10,230

V N @ 9% 8,248

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