Oceans and Coasts at the Frontline of Climate Change

• The world’s oceans play a central role in climate, akin to the Earth’s lungs and circulatory system. – Oceans already absorb over 80% of the heat added to the climate

system and nearly 50% of all CO2 added to the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels over the past 250 years.

• Ocean warming triggers broad-scale effects--from melting polar ice, rising sea levels, shifting species distribution and abundance, erratic weather patterns, increased frequency and intensity of storms, to changes in ocean currents.

• Ocean acidification-- Ocean acidification-- Additional COAdditional CO22 absorbed by seawater has caused absorbed by seawater has caused a a 30% increase in acidity30% increase in acidity, posing serious threats to marine ecosystems , posing serious threats to marine ecosystems and the millions of people dependent upon them. and the millions of people dependent upon them.

• The more than The more than 50% of the human population50% of the human population that lives in 183 coastal that lives in 183 coastal countries, including 44 small island nations, are at the countries, including 44 small island nations, are at the frontlinefrontline of of climate change and will suffer climate change and will suffer disproportionate impactsdisproportionate impacts from ocean from ocean warming and from ocean acidification.warming and from ocean acidification.

Scientific evidence since 2007 IPCC report shows even more pronounced effects

• Sea level rise faster than expectedSea level rise faster than expected

• Sea level rise projections higher than in IPCC AR4

• Tropical cyclone risks confirmedTropical cyclone risks confirmed

• Ocean acidification threatens coral reefs Ocean acidification threatens coral reefs (Hare 2010)

Coral Reefs: CO2 and Ocean Acidification

• Increasing CO2 concentration acidifying the world oceans– Likely to have wide ranging

adverse effects

– Below 350 ppm CO2: appears to be ‘safe’ for reefs

• At present CO2 at 386 ppm and rising at 2 ppm/year

– At 450 ppm CO2: corals stop growing - reached by 2030s

– At 550 ppm CO2: coral reefs dissolve - reached by 2050s

(Hare 2010)

Post-Copenhagen Projections by Science Post-Copenhagen Projections by Science CommunityCommunity

• In the absence of a binding international agreement, Nations In the absence of a binding international agreement, Nations will probably meet only lower ends of emissions reduction will probably meet only lower ends of emissions reduction pledgespledges

• Based on current emissions reduction pledges:Based on current emissions reduction pledges:

– Global emissions in 2020 up to 20% higher than todayGlobal emissions in 2020 up to 20% higher than today

– Greater than 50% chance warming will exceed 3Greater than 50% chance warming will exceed 3ooC by C by 2100, CO2100, CO22 greater than 650 ppm greater than 650 ppm

– Sea level rise of ~1 metre by 2100 above 1990Sea level rise of ~1 metre by 2100 above 1990

• Halving emissions by 2050 has 50% chance warming will Halving emissions by 2050 has 50% chance warming will exceed 2exceed 2ooC C

– Almost certainly greater than 1.5Almost certainly greater than 1.5ooCC(Hare 2010)(Hare 2010)

Evolving Consensus of the Oceans Community

Develop a comprehensive strategy on oceans and

climate, both within and outside the UNFCCC

process (reflected in the Oceans Day at Copenhagen and in

the Co-Chairs Report from Global Oceans Conference 2010)

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• H.E. Mr. Anote Tong, President of Kiribati

• H.S.H Prince Albert II of Monaco

Oceans and Climate Strategy

Major Elements:

Mitigation

Adaptation

Financing

Capacity Development

Public Education

Mitigation—Central Point• Need for stringent reductions in greenhouse emissions within a

short time frame

• Continue to emphasize the central role of oceans in climate, the fact that coastal populations and small island developing States (SIDS) are at the frontline of climate change, and the specific effects of ocean warming and ocean acidification

  Ocean warming• sea level rise

• intensity and frequency of storms

• changes in species distribution and

• ecosystem function

• changes in ocean currents/circulation

  Ocean acidification

• Enhance the science/policy interface on climate and ocean issues and forecast capacity

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Mitigation– Using the Oceans for Mitigation

• Develop protocol regarding natural carbon sinks in coastal areas, “blue carbon” (as in REDD with forests)

• Reduce CO2 emissions from ships

• Develop ocean-based renewable energy, using marine spatial planning

• Consider and develop regulatory systems for carbon capture and storage via injection in deep seabed geological formations

• Discourage other geo-engineering approaches, such as iron fertilization, CO2 injection in water column

• Capacity development and public education on mitigation measures

 

Adaptation• Implement adaptation through integrated coastal and ocean

management institutions at national, regional and local levels

• Apply ecosystem-based adaptation strategies to increase resilience of ecosystems and communities, including networks of MPAs

• Prepare for the legal, economic, social, and humanitarian issues associated with climate change effects on coastal zones and SIDS, especially regarding displacement of coastal populations

• Deploy early warning/early action systems

• Capacity development on adaptation

• Public education on adaptation 

Financing, Capacity Development, Public Education and Policy Development

• Develop and promote better estimates of costs of adaptation and potential for mitigation relating to oceans and coastal areas. Current estimates fail to incorporate a variety of climate change effects as well as the latest scientific evidence on projected impacts

• The financing needs will be large. One could argue that least 50% of adaptation funding should be dedicated to coastal populations and SIDS since they will be the most vulnerable

• Capacity development and public education to support mitigation and adaptation efforts

Cancun Oceans Day• Reviewed each major “building block” of a comprehensive strategy on

oceans and climate and discussed how it may be advanced in the next phase

• Discussed how the building blocks fit together and jointly enhance the resilience of ocean ecosystems and coastal communities, or alternatively, how pursuing one building block could thwart the other approaches or threaten the functioning of ocean ecosystems

• Discussed how we can collaborate further and more effectively to have an impact in the UNFCCC process

• Discussed how can we collaborate effectively in the Rio+20 process, which will examine progress achieved (or lack thereof) since the Earth Summit in 1992 and point the way toward a new vision of a low carbon economic order.

Priority Actions at UNFCCC COP 16 and Beyond

1. Stringent and immediate reductions in CO2• Ensure the continuing functioning of the oceans in

sustaining life on Earth by adopting the most stringent reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, within a short timeframe, to avoid disastrous consequences on oceans and coastal communities around the world;

• Avoid dangerous levels of ocean acidification by

reducing CO2 emissions; and

• Incorporate reference to these impacts into the Working Group on Long-Term Cooperative Action.

COP 16 and Beyond2. Deepen understanding of “Blue carbon”

Natural carbon sinks in coastal areas (e.g., mangroves, seagrass beds, kelp forests, tidal marshes), which have a greater capacity (per unit of area) than terrestrial carbon sinks in achieving long-term carbon sequestration in sediments, have not yet been considered in the UNFCCC context.

• Support additional research on quantifying the amounts of carbon stored and released by various marine and coastal ecosystems.

• Further examine the potential for the trading of “Blue carbon” in a similar way to green carbon (such as rainforests) and how this could be incorporated into emissions reductions and other climate mitigation protocols.

COP 16 and Beyond

3. Accelerate progress on other mitigation using oceans

• Further develop ocean-based renewable energy (such as offshore windpower, wave energy, tidal power, etc.); and accelerate efforts to implement these approaches through marine spatial planning;

• Accelerate efforts to reduce CO2 emissions from ships

• Consider and develop regulatory systems for carbon capture and storage via injection in deep seabed geological formations

COP 16 and Beyond

4. Discourage other geo-engineering approaches, such as iron fertilization, CO2 injection in water column

COP 16 and Beyond

5. Undertake climate change adaptation in vulnerable coastal areas

• Encourage and implement ecosystem-based adaptation strategies, including marine protected areas, through integrated coastal and ocean management institutions at national, regional, and local levels to build the preparedness, resilience, and adaptive capacities of coastal communities; and

• Provide sufficient funding to support adaptation for coastal and island communities that are at the frontline of climate change in 183 coastal countries, considering the creation of a special Coastal Adaptation Fund.

COP 16 and Beyond

• Prepare for the legal, economic, social, and humanitarian issues associated with climate change effects on coastal zones and SIDS, especially regarding displacement of coastal populations

COP16 and Beyond6. Work with coastal countries to heighten awareness

about the implications of climate change impacts on ocean and coastal areas

• Call for recognition in the UNFCCC negotiating text of the important role played by oceans in climate--generating oxygen, absorbing carbon dioxide and regulating climate and temperature;

• Mobilize broad-based support for the oceans and climate agenda within the UNFCCC process and in the Rio+20 process leading up to the UN Conference on Sustainable Development in May 2012 in Brazil; and

• Work towards the creation of an integrated oceans and coasts program within and beyond the UNFCCC, emphasizing the elements noted above.

The time to act is now, not tomorrow