Research to support Ecosystem-Based Management Christopher R. Kelble, Geoffrey Cook, Kelly Kearney, Pamela Fletcher, Lindsey Visser, and many collaborators

Chris Kelble AOML Program Review, 4-6 March 2014

Oceans and Ecosystems Research

AOML Program Review

Research to support Ecosystem-Based Management (EBM)

  Major Science Question(s) o  How do we assess, evaluate, and predict the holistic integrated state of coastal

ecosystems to improve management?

  Links to NOAA Strategic Plan o  A holistic understanding of the Earth system through research

  Links to other authorizing language, statutes, etc. (if appropriate) o  Water Resources Development Act 2000 (Everglades Restoration), Coastal Zone

Management Act, Clean Water Act, Magnuson-Stevens Reauthorization Act, etc.

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Partnerships and Stakeholders

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How do we assess, evaluate, and predict the holistic integrated state of coastal ecosystems to improve management?

Observations/ Indicators

Empirical Models

Mechanistic Models

Conceptual Models

Integrations with Human Dimensions

Risk analysis

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EBM-DPSER: A next generation conceptual ecosystem model

Kelble et al. (2013)

Drivers - social, demographic and economic developments

Pressure - release of substances (emissions), physical and biological agents, the use of resources and the use of land

State – quantity and quality of physical phenomena (such as temperature), biological phenomena (such as fish stocks) and chemical phenomena (such as atmospheric CO2 concentrations)

Ecosystem Services – the benefits that humans derive from the ecosystem

Responses - by groups (and individuals) in society, as well as government attempts to prevent, compensate, ameliorate or adapt to changes in the state of the environment

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Holistic Indicator selection

Non-­‐economic  HDS  Drivers,  Pressures,  Responses    

State    

Ecosystem  Services    

Economic  HDS  

Seagrass  Coastal  wetlands  Coral  and  Hardbo�om  Oysters  Beaches  Marine  birds  Fish  and  shellfish  Water  column  

$$  Flood  Claims  Paid  #  Recrea�onal  Vessels    Coastal  Park  Visits  Ornamental  Landings  Commercial  Seafood  

Environmental  

Public  Health  &  Safety  Educa�on  Aesthe�cs  Recrea�on  Cultural/Historical/  Spiritual    

Ecological Indicators, Special Issue In Review

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Developing Consistent Indicators for IEAs REPORT CARD

RECREATION QUALITY WATER COLUMN

DIVING QUALITYRECREATIONAL

FISHINGQUALITY

BEACH QUALITY

SATISFACTION

EXPECTATION

V1V2V3V4V5V1V2V3V4V5

V1V2V3V4V5

DISC

V1V2V3V4V5V1V2V3V4V5

V1V2V3V4V5

BASE

V1V2V3V4V5V1V2V3V4V5

V1V2V3V4V5

CATCH

SIZE

V1V2V3V4V5V1V2V3V4V5

V1V2V3V4V5

NUMBER

V1V2V3V4V5V1V2V3V4V5

V1V2V3V4V5

SPECIES

V1V2V3V4V5V1V2V3V4V5

V1V2V3V4V5

NON-CATCH

SOLITUDE

V1V2V3V4V5V1V2V3V4V5

V1V2V3V4V5

FAMILY

V1V2V3V4V5V1V2V3V4V5

V1V2V3V4V5

OUTSIDE

V1V2V3V4V5V1V2V3V4V5

V1V2V3V4V5

MEA

SURE

ABL

EVA

RIA

BLES

IND

ICAT

ORS

/IND

ICES

REPORT CARD

WATER COLUMNREREATION QUALITY

ABIOTIC

SALINITY

V1V2V3V4V5V1V2V3V4V5

V1V2V3V4V5

WATERCLARITY

V1V2V3V4V5V1V2V3V4V5

V1V2V3V4V5

DISSOLVEDOXYGEN

V1V2V3V4V5V1V2V3V4V5

V1V2V3V4V5

EUTROPHICATION

CARBONATECHEMISTRY

V1V2V3V4V5V1V2V3V4V5

V1V2V3V4V5

PHYTOPLANKTON

V1V2V3V4V5V1V2V3V4V5

V1V2V3V4V5

NUTRIENTS

V1V2V3V4V5V1V2V3V4V5

V1V2V3V4V5

HUMAN HEALTH

PATHOGENS

V1V2V3V4V5V1V2V3V4V5

V1V2V3V4V5

FECAL INDICATORS

V1V2V3V4V5V1V2V3V4V5

V1V2V3V4V5

TOXINS

V1V2V3V4V5V1V2V3V4V5

V1V2V3V4V5

HARMFULALGAL BLOOMS

V1V2V3V4V5V1V2V3V4V5

V1V2V3V4V5

MEA

SURE

ABL

EVA

RIA

BLES

IND

ICAT

ORS

/IND

ICES

TEMPERATURE

V1V2V3V4V5V1V2V3V4V5

V1V2V3V4V5

Loomis et al. (2014)

Social: Recreation

Biophysical: Water Column

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Developing Consistent Indicators for IEAs

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Empirical Models to Assess Climate Change Impacts

Kearney et al. (2014)

AOML Program Review Cook et al. (2014)

Impact of multiple pressures upon Ecosystem Services

0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25

Freshwater Delivery

Climate Change (Temp.)

Climate Change (Weather)

Accelerated Sea Level Rise

Ocean Acidification

Marine Construction

Boating Activities

Disease

Invasive Species

Marine Debris/Ghost Traps

Commercial Fishing

Recreational Fishing

Relative Direct Impact to Ecosystem Services

Eco

syst

em P

ress

ure

Direct Impact of Ecosystem Pressures on Ecosystem Services

Science and Education Recreational Fishing Protection from Storms Pristine Wilderness Experience Pollution Treatment Non-Extractive Recreation Historic & Cultural Resources Existence Natural System Commercial Extraction Climate Stability Aesthetic Environment

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Evaluating Management Strategies

Kelble et al. (In Prep)

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Looking Ahead

  In the works: o  Investigating climate change with coupled climate,

physics, & ecosystem models

o  Better integration with Human Dimensions Science

by incorporating Human Well-Being

o  Methodology to determine optimal yield for

fisheries

o  Setting reference points for EBM

  Known risks and issues o  Governance; untested hypothesis; political will;

accounting for uncertainty in complex systems

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Recent Publications (2013-2014)

1.  Fletcher, P. J., C. R. Kelble, W. K. Nuttle, and G. A. Kiker. 2013. Using the integrated ecosystem assessment process to build consensus and transfer information to managers. Ecological Indicators. In Review 2.  Loomis, D. K., P. Ortner, and C. Kelble. 2013. Developing Integrated Ecosystem Indices. Ecological Indicators In Review 3.  Kearney, K., M. Butler, R. Glazer, C. Kelble, J.E. Serafy, E. Stabenau. 2014. Quantifying Florida Bay habitat suitability for fishes and invertebrates under climate change scenarios. Environmnetal Management. Accepted 4.  Smith, R.H., E.M. Johns, G. J. Goni, J. Trinanes, R. Lumpkin1, A. M. Wood, C. R. Kelble, S. R. Cummings, J. T. Lamkin, S. Privoznik. 2014. Oceanographic conditions in the Gulf of Mexico in July 2010, during the Deepwater Horizon oil. Continental Shelf Research. Accepted 5.  Conmy, R., P. Coble, J. Farr, A.M. Wood, K. Lee, W. Pegau, I. Walsh, C. Koch, M. Abercrombie, S. Miles, M. Lewis, S. Ryan, B. Robinson, T. King, C. Kelble, J. Lacoste. 2014. Submersible optical sensors exposed to chemically-dispersed crude oil: wave tank simulations for improved oil spill monitoring. Environmental Science and Technology. Accepted 6.  Cook, G. S., Fletcher, P. J., & Kelble, C. R. 2014. Towards marine ecosystem based management in South Florida: Investigating the connections among ecosystem pressures, states, and services in a complex coastal system. Ecological Indicators. doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2013.10.026 7.  Levin, P. S., C. R. Kelble, R. Shuford, C. Ainsworth, Y. de Reynier, R. Dunsmore, M. J. Fogarty, K. Holsman, E. Howell, M. Monaco, S. Oakes, and F. Werner. 2014. Guidance for implementation of integrated ecosystem assessments: a US perspective. Ices Journal of Marine Science In Press. 8.  Kearney, K.A., C. Stock, and J.L. Sarmiento. 2013. Amplification and attenuation of increased primary production in a marine food web. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 491:1-14, doi:10.3354/meps10484 9.  Carson, H.S., P.C. Lopez-Duarte, G.S. Cook, F.J. Fodrie, B.J. Becker, C. DiBacco, and L.A. Levin. 2013. Temporal, spatial, and interspecific variation in geochemical signatures within fish otoliths, bivalve larval shells, and crustacean larvae. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 473:133-148, doi:10.3354/meps10078 10.  Kelble, C. R., Loomis, D. K., Lovelace, S., Nuttle, W. K., Ortner, P. B., Fletcher, P., Cook, G.S., Lorenz, J.J., Boyer, J. N. (2013). The EBM-DPSER conceptual model: integrating ecosystem services into the DPSIR framework. PloS one, 8(8), e70766. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0070766 11.  Cannizzaro, J. P., C. Hu, K. L. Carder, C. R. Kelble, N. Melo, E. M. Johns, G. A. Vargo, and C. A. Heil. 2013. On the Accuracy of SeaWiFS Ocean Color Data Products on the West Florida Shelf, Journal of Coastal Research 29(6):1257-1272. 12.  Kelble, C. R. 2013. Low Salinity Predation Refugia Could Cause HAB Initiation. Journal of Phycology 49:18-19.

Questions?

AOML Program Review 14

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Back-up slides