October 2018 - Microsoft · October’s inventory remaining elevated at 1,449 units, the highest levels ever recorded for the month of October. Elevated inventories compared to sales

October 2018

Prices ease due to excess supply in most regions

Slowing sales, primarily in Calgary and Edmonton, resulted in provincial sales totalling 4,203 units in October. This is a seven per cent decline compared to last October and 12 per cent lower than longer term averages. Easing sales activity in the two largest cities is a result of persistent weakness in local employment markets, renewed concerns surrounding the energy sector and increased competition from the new home markets.

While sales activity has remained slow in some of our larger markets, this is not consistent across the province. Year-to-date sales activity has improved compared to last year in Fort McMurray, Grande Prairie and Central Alberta. However, it is only Grande Prairie that has seen sales return to levels that are more consistent with long-term averages.

For the second month in a row, new listings in the province eased from levels recorded in the previous year thanks to pullbacks in the Wood Buffalo and Calgary region. However, the decrease in new listings was not enough to offset the easing sales. As a result, inventories remain elevated and most markets are oversupplied.

The excess supply has caused prices to trend down from last year’s levels with the steepest price declines occurring in Fort McMurray. Nonetheless, not all markets have recorded price declines. Grande Prairie is the only area where market conditions have returned to more typical levels generating notable price gains. At the same time, prices have remained relatively stable in other markets including Medicine Hat and South Central Alberta.

Oct. 18

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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

OCTOBERALBERTA MONTHS OF SUPPLY AND PRICE CHANGES

Months of Inventory Trended Months of Inventory Y/Y Price ChangeSource: CREA

AREA Monthly Statistics 2

Alberta Summary Oct-17 Oct-18Year-over-Year % Change 2017 YTD 2018 YTD

Year-over-Year % Change

Total Sales 4,522 4,203 -7.05% 50,138 47,108 -6.04%Total Sales Volume $1,784,660,938 $1,599,931,369 -10.35% $20,059,568,044 $18,334,822,638 -8.60%New Listings 8,515 8,379 -1.60% 104,919 107,570 2.53%Inventory 30,525 33,284 9.04% 30,198 33,702 11.60%Months of Supply 6.75 6.93 2.71% 6.02 7.15 18.78%Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio 0.53 0.51 -0.03% 47.79 43.79 -3.99%Average Price $394,662 $380,664 -3.55% $400,087 $389,208 -2.72%

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ALBERTA AVERAGE PRICE AND PRICE CHANGE

Y/Y Change Trended Price Change Average Price Trended Average PriceSource: CREA

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SALES AND INVENTORY

Sales Inventory Trended Sales Trended InventorySource: CREA


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ALBERTA TOTAL RESIDENTIAL SALES

Calgary Region Edmonton Region Alberta West Central AlbertaFort McMurray Grande Prairie Lethbridge LolydminsterMedicine Hat South Central Alberta 10 Year Average Source: CREA

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ALBERTA TOTAL RESIDENTIAL INVENTORY


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ALBERTA TOTAL RESIDENTIAL NEW LISTINGS



October 2018 Sales y/y % change

New Listings

y/y % change Inventory y/y %

changeMonths of Supply

y/y % change

Average Price

y/y % change

Sales to New Listings

Share of Sales Activity

Alberta West 104 -20.61% 215 0.47% 1,449 21.05% 13.93 52.48% 354,051 -2.83% 0.48 2.47%Calgary Region 1,676 -9.16% 3,113 -5.67% 10,010 12.67% 5.97 24.04% 449,274 -2.53% 0.54 39.88%Central Alberta 296 -8.64% 631 -10.37% 3,743 -0.40% 12.65 9.02% 288,924 -7.40% 0.47 7.04%Edmonton Region 1,399 -11.17% 2,939 2.40% 10,696 8.53% 7.65 22.19% 366,531 -3.42% 0.48 33.29%Fort McMurray 92 35.29% 184 -1.60% 990 -9.84% 10.76 -33.36% 374,360 -15.97% 0.50 2.19%Grande Prairie 208 14.92% 401 1.26% 1,736 -3.39% 8.35 -15.93% 310,534 14.54% 0.52 4.95%Lethbridge 202 22.42% 364 22.15% 1,744 37.54% 8.63 12.35% 256,525 -2.69% 0.55 4.81%Lloydminster 60 27.66% 184 31.43% 1,113 10.86% 18.55 -13.16% 272,558 -1.64% 0.33 1.43%Medicine Hat 115 -8.73% 191 38.41% 760 47.29% 6.61 61.38% 281,477 -4.57% 0.60 2.74%South Central Alberta 27 3.85% 84 64.71% 498 5.51% 18.44 1.60% 221,793 8.83% 0.32 0.64%

Alberta 4,203 -7.05% 8,379 -1.60% 33,284 9.04% 6.93 2.71% 380,664 -3.55% 0.51

Oct. 18

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Oct-17 Oct-18 Year-over-year price changeSource: CREA

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MONTHS OF SUPPLY - TOTAL RESIDENTIAL

Oct-17 Oct-18 Months of Supply = Total inventory / SalesSource: CREA

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AVERAGE PRICE COMPARISON

Oct-17 Oct-18 Months of Supply = Total inventory / SalesSource: CREA


Alberta West Oct-17 Oct-18 Year-over-Year % Change 2017 YTD 2018 YTD Year-over-Year %

ChangeTotal Sales 131 104 -20.61% 1,127 1,091 -3.19%Total Sales Volume $47,729,387 $36,821,334 -22.85% $390,973,786 $371,011,575 -5.11%New Listings 214 215 0.47% 2,306 2,402 4.16%Inventory 1,197 1,449 21.05% 1,207 1,294 7.16%Months of Supply 9.14 13.93 52.48% 10.71 11.86 10.70%Sales to New Listings Ratio 0.61 0.48 -0.13% 48.87 45.42 -3.45%Average Price $364,346 $354,051 -2.83% $346,916 $340,066 -1.97%

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AVERAGE PRICE AND PRICE CHANGE

Y/Y Change Trended Y/Y Change Average Price Trended Price Source: CREA

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MONTHS OF SUPPLY AND SALES TO NEW LISTINGS RATIO

Months of Inventory Trended Months of Inventory Trended S/NL Source: CREA

Alberta WestYear-to-date sales in the region were 1,091 units, slightly lower than the 1,127 units recorded last year. However, gains in new listings have resulted in October’s inventory remaining elevated at 1,449 units, the highest levels ever recorded for the month of October.

Elevated inventories compared to sales continues to weigh on prices. As of October, year-to-date average price was $340,066, a two per cent decline compared to last year.


ALBERTA WEST SALES

ALBERTA WEST NEW LISTINGS

ALBERTA WEST INVENTORIES

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Sales 10-year average Source: CREA

OCTOBER

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YTD Sales 10-year average Source: CREA

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New Listings 10-year average Source: CREA

OCTOBER

1,9502,0002,0502,1002,1502,2002,2502,3002,3502,4002,4502,500

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YTD New Listings 10-year averageSource: CREA

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Inventory 10-year average Source: CREA

OCTOBER

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YTD Average Invnetory 10-year average Source: CREA

YTD-OCTOBER


Calgary Region Oct-17 Oct-18Year-over-Year % Change 2017 YTD 2018 YTD

Year-over-Year % Change

Total Sales 1,845 1,676 -9.16% 20,827 18,091 -13.14%Total $Volume $850,437,061 $752,982,599 -11.46% $9,780,398,592 $8,403,791,691 -14.08%New Listings 3,300 3,113 -5.67% 39,627 40,307 1.72%Inventory 8,884 10,010 12.67% 8,317 10,062 20.98%Months of Supply 4.82 5.97 24.04% 3.99 5.56 39.28%S/NL Ratio 0.56 0.54 -0.02% 52.56 44.88 -7.67%Average Price $460,941 $449,274 -2.53% $469,602 $464,529 -1.08%

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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018



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Calgary Region

The Calgary region has seen the largest pullback in sales activity this year with a sales decline of 13 per cent. Calgary has the highest unemployment rate in the province and continues to face job losses contributing to the steeper reduction in sales activity.

Despite some recent easing in new listings, supply levels continue to remain elevated. Weakness in demand combined with the elevated supply has caused prices to trend down this year.


CALGARY REGION SALES

CALGARY REGION NEW LISITNGS

CALGARY REGION INVENTORY

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YTD New Listings 10-year average Source: CREA

YTD-OCTOBER

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YTD Average Invnetory 10-year averageSource: CREA

YTD-OCTOBER


Central Alberta Oct-17 Oct-18 Year-over-Year % Change 2017 YTD 2018 YTD Year-over-Year %

ChangeTotal Sales 324 296 -8.64% 3,372 3,441 2.05%Total $Volume $101,095,314 $85,521,562 -15.41% $1,054,523,622 $1,013,745,317 -3.87%New Listings 704 631 -10.37% 8,694 8,851 1.81%Inventory 3,758 3,743 -0.40% 3,878 4,052 4.50%Months of Supply 11.60 12.65 9.02% 11.50 11.78 2.41%S/NL Ratio 0.46 0.47 0.01% 38.79 38.88 0.09%Average Price $312,023 $288,924 -7.40% $312,729 $294,608 -5.79%

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Central Alberta

Over the past few months sales activity in Red Deer has slowed compared to last year. However, this was not enough to erase previous gains resulting in year-to-date sales of 3,441 units, a two per cent increase over the previous year. At the same time, easing sales were met with a reduction in the new listings, preventing any further additions to inventories.

Nonetheless, this market continues to remain oversupplied weighing on home prices. As of October, the year-to-date average price was $294,608, nearly six per cent below levels recorded last year.


CENTRAL ALBERTA SALES

CENTRAL ALBERTA NEW LISTINGS

CENTRAL ALBERTA INVENTORY

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YTD-OCTOBER


Edmonton Region Oct-17 Oct-18 Year-over-Year % Change 2017 YTD 2018 YTD Year-over-Year %

ChangeTotal Sales 1,575 1,399 -11.17% 17,110 16,414 -4.07%Total $Volume $597,708,483 $512,777,158 -14.21% $6,539,219,608 $6,169,206,316 -5.66%New Listings 2,870 2,939 2.40% 35,850 37,224 3.83%Inventory 9,855 10,696 8.53% 9,847 10,903 10.73%Months of Supply 6.26 7.65 22.19% 5.76 6.64 15.42%S/NL Ratio 0.55 0.48 -0.07% 47.73 44.10 -3.63%Average Price $379,497 $366,531 -3.42% $382,187 $375,850 -1.66%

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Edmonton RegionFor the second month in a row sales activity eased. October sales totaled 1,399 units, an 11 per cent decline over last year and nearly 10 per cent below long-term averages. At the same time inventory levels remain elevated pushing region wide months of supply to just under eight months, the highest level recorded for the month of October.

Continued concerns in the energy sector, combined with increased competition from the new home market, is impacting the region’s housing market. The oversupply has been weighing on prices in Edmonton for most of the year. The year-to-date average price has eased by nearly two per cent compared to last year.


EDMONTON REGION SALES

EDMONTON REGION NEW LISTINGS

EDMONTON REGION INVENTORY

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YTD-OCTOBER


Fort McMurray Region Oct-17 Oct-18 Year-over-Year % Change 2017 YTD 2018 YTD Year-over-Year %

ChangeTotal Sales 68 92 35.29% 909 1,057 16.28%Total $Volume $30,296,100 $34,441,150 13.68% $390,599,548 $420,436,425 7.64%New Listings 187 184 -1.60% 2,440 2,093 -14.22%Inventory 1,098 990 -9.84% 1,116 979 -12.31%Months of Supply 16.15 10.76 -33.36% 12.28 9.26 -24.59%S/NL Ratio 0.36 0.50 0.14% 37.25 50.50 13.25%Average Price $445,531 $374,360 -15.97% $429,702 $397,764 -7.43%

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Fort McMurray Region

For the seventh consecutive month, sales activity in the region has improved over levels recorded last year. However, with 1,057 sales so far this year, levels remain 27 per cent below long-term averages.

At the same time, new listings are starting to adjust to a new reality of slower sales activity, helping to reduce the amount of inventory in the market and the amount of oversupply. However, persistent oversupply in the market continues to weigh on prices. The year-to-date average price declined by seven per cent to $397,764.


FORT MCMURRAY SALES

FORT MCMURRAY NEW LISTINGS

FORT MCMURRAY INVENTORY

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YTD-OCTOBER


Grande Prairie Oct-17 Oct-18 Year-over-Year % Change 2017 YTD 2018 YTD Year-over-Year %

ChangeTotal Sales 181 208 14.92% 1,942 2,352 21.11%Total $Volume $49,072,453 $64,591,074 31.62% $572,334,236 $717,345,094 25.34%New Listings 396 401 1.26% 4,949 4,818 -2.65%Inventory 1,797 1,736 -3.39% 1,819 1,725 -5.15%Months of Supply 9.93 8.35 -15.93% 9.37 7.34 -21.68%S/NL Ratio 0.46 0.52 0.06% 39.24 48.82 9.58%Average Price $271,119 $310,534 14.54% $294,714 $304,994 3.49%

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Grande Prairie Region

Sales activity rose again in October compared to last year, causing year-to-date sales to total 2,352 units, a 21 per cent increase over last year and 15 per cent above long-term averages. Improving demand has resulted in some year-over-year gains in new listings over the past three months. However, it has not been enough to offset the rising sales as inventories continued to ease to levels more consistent with long-term averages.

As conditions reflect more balanced conditions, prices continue to edge up. The year-to-date average price totaled $304,994 in October, a four per cent gains over the previous year. Recent gains have helped push the market closer to price recovery.


GRANDE PRAIRIE SALES

GRANDE PRAIRIE NEW LISTINGS

GRANDE PRAIRIE INVENTORY

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YTD-OCTOBER


Lethbridge Oct-17 Oct-18 Year-over-Year % Change 2017 YTD 2018 YTD Year-over-Year %

ChangeTotal Sales 165 202 22.42% 2,212 2,152 -2.71%Total $Volume $43,498,280 $51,818,050 19.13% $597,956,904 $559,837,377 -6.37%New Listings 298 364 22.15% 3,486 3,849 10.41%Inventory 1,268 1,744 37.54% 1,260 1,496 18.69%Months of Supply 7.68 8.63 12.35% 5.70 6.95 22.00%S/NL Ratio 0.55 0.55 0.00% 63.45 55.91 -7.54%Average Price $263,626 $256,525 -2.69% $270,324 $260,147 -3.76%

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LethbridgeYear-to-date sales activity has remained relatively stable in Lethbridge. However, strong gains in new listings has caused inventory levels to rise to levels not seen for over four years. Rising inventory, compared to sales, has created some buyer market conditions. As a result, there has been some downward pressure on prices.

As of October, the year-to-date average price was $260,147, nearly four per cent lower than last year’s prices.


LETHBRIDGE SALES

LETHBRIDGE NEW LISTINGS

LETHBRIDGE INVENTORY

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YTD-OCTOBER


Medicine Hat Oct-17 Oct-18 Year-over-Year % Change 2017 YTD 2018 YTD Year-over-Year %

ChangeTotal Sales 126 115 -8.73% 1,213 1,094 -9.81%Total $Volume $37,163,085 $32,369,850 -12.90% $334,395,918 $302,509,328 -9.54%New Listings 138 191 38.41% 1,702 1,913 12.40%Inventory 516 760 47.29% 548 608 10.78%Months of Supply 4.10 6.61 61.38% 4.52 5.55 22.83%S/NL Ratio 0.91 0.60 -0.31% 71.27 57.19 -14.08%Average Price $294,945 $281,477 -4.57% $275,677 $276,517 0.30%

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Medicine Hat

Sales activity continued to ease this month resulting in year-to-date sales of 1,094 units, nearly 10 per cent below last year’s levels. At the same time new listings were also on the rise causing inventories to increase to levels that are more comparable to long-term averages.

The trends in this market have been tipping the balance to favour buyers, creating some downward pressure on prices over the past couple of months. However, year-to-date average price has remained relatively stable to last year’s levels at a price of $276,517,


MEDICINE HAT SALES

MEDICINE HAT NEW LISTINGS

MEDICINE HAT INVENTORY

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New Listings Source: CREA

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YTD New Listings Source: CREA

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YTD Average Invnetory Source: CREA

YTD-OCTOBER


South Central Alberta Oct-17 Oct-18 Year-over-Year % Change 2017 YTD 2018 YTD Year-over-Year %

ChangeTotal Sales 26 27 3.85% 340 317 -6.76%Total $Volume $5,298,850 $5,988,400 13.01% $69,334,200 $64,735,753 -6.63%New Listings 51 84 64.71% 824 883 7.16%Inventory 472 498 5.51% 487 497 1.99%Months of Supply 18.15 18.44 1.60% 14.34 15.68 9.39%S/NL Ratio 0.51 0.32 -0.19% 41.26 35.90 -5.36%Average Price $203,802 $221,793 8.83% $203,924 $204,214 0.14%

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South Central Alberta Region

Sales activity in the region remain comparable to levels recorded over the previous three years. However, new listings have trended up causing gains in inventory levels. Elevated supply compared to sales activity has caused some instability in prices. Nonetheless, year-to-date average price has remained similar to levels recorded last year.


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YTD-OCTOBER


Lloydminster Oct-17 Oct-18 Year-over-Year % Change 2017 YTD 2018 YTD Year-over-Year %

ChangeTotal Sales 47 60 27.66% 677 675 -0.30%Total $Volume $13,024,400 $16,353,480 25.56% $199,427,722 $188,505,769 -5.48%New Listings 140 184 31.43% 1,862 2,023 8.65%Inventory 1,004 1,113 10.86% 996 1,090 9.41%Months of Supply 21.36 18.55 -13.16% 14.71 16.15 9.73%S/NL Ratio 0.34 0.33 -0.01% 36.36 33.37 -2.99%Average Price $277,115 $272,558 -1.64% $294,576 $279,268 -5.20%

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Lloydminster

With 675 sales so far this year, activity has remained comparable to last year. However, sales remain well below longer term averages which are closer to 1,000 sales by October. At the same time new listings continue to rise, pushing up inventory levels.

This has caused persistent oversupply in the market and has caused prices to generally trend down. Year-to-date average price has declined by five per cent for a total of $279,268.


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YTD-OCTOBER


ABOUT AREA

The AREA represents more than 10,000 REALTORS® and 10 real estate Boards/Associations province-wide and provides worldclass leadership that positively shapes the Alberta real estate profession, enhances member professionalism, and reinforces the critical value REALTORS® deliver to both buyers and sellers.

Board & Association Information

The Grande Prairie & Area Association of REALTORS® represents more than 240 REALTORS® located in Grande Prairie and across the Peace Region. All MLS® listings processed by the Board can be found on the national public web site www.grandeprairie-mls.ca

The Fort McMurray REALTORS® are a member service organization made up of approximately 200 real estate members consisting of Brokers, Associate Brokers and Associates. The Board also has 12 Affiliate members providing support and service to the real estate industry. Our trading area includes the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo and the Lac LaBiche County. For more information please go to www.fmreb.com

Alberta West REALTORS® Association represents 174 real estate industry professionals in various communities throughout West Central Alberta. For more information please go to www.abwra.com

The REALTORS® Association of Edmonton is a professional services association comprised of over 3,200 Brokers and Associates serving the greater Edmonton area. For more information please go to www.realtorsofedmonton.com

The REALTORS® of Lloydminster and District is comprised of approximately 100 REALTORS® located in offices in Lloydminster as well as the surrounding communities of Wainwright and VermilionFor more information please go to www.rald.realtyserver.com

The Central Alberta REALTORS® Association is a professional trade organization, whose members are licensed Real Estate professionals. Our membership currently includes more than 650 real estate brokers and agents working across Central Alberta.For more information please go to www.carassociation.ca

The Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB®) is a professional association of over 5,200 licensed REALTORS® across the Calgary region. As one of the largest real estate boards in Canada, CREB® provides members with essential resources to enhance professionalism, advance the industry’s development and enrich the communities they serve. For more information please go towww.creb.com

The Lethbridge and District Association of REALTORS® is a member service organization made up of 294 real estate members consisting of Brokers, Associate Brokers and Associates. The Board also has 39 Contract Subscribers who are Appraisers, Home Inspectors, Builders, and Mortgage Brokers. For more information please go to www.ldar.ca

The Medicine Hat Real Estate Board was chartered in 1955 and serves the 140 local REALTORS®, in eleven brokerages, which provide real estate brokerage services to buyers and sellers of all types of property - residential, commercial, industrial and farm/ranch. For more information please go to www.mhreb.ca

REPORTING REGIONS* Data is collected and reported by each board, then aggregated by the Canadian Real Estate Association. Detailed information regarding how the data is aggregated should be directed to either the Specific Board or CREA.

The average price information listed can be useful in establishing trends over time, but do not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods, or account for price differentials between geographical area

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Documents

October 2018 - Microsoft · October’s inventory remaining elevated at 1,449 units, the highest levels ever recorded for the month of October. Elevated inventories compared to sales