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Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
OE ENERGY
MARKET SNAPSHOTNational – Data Through April 2019
Office of Enforcement
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
May 2019
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
2018 State of the Markets
Report
Highlights
• Natural gas markets experienced record high demand and supply.• Natural gas storage fell to a multi-year low.• Pipeline additions helped to reduce Marcellus bottlenecks.• Higher average prices were seen nationally for both gas and electric markets.• Capacity additions were led by natural gas-fired and wind-powered generation.
3
3
Natural Gas Prices Increased in 2018
Source: S&P Global Platts
2018 Average
Spot Natural Gas
Prices
>=5.15<=1.95
$/MMBtu
(Percent
change since ’17)
4
4
Natural Gas Storage Hit Multi-Year Low
Source: EIA
5
5
Natural Gas Production Reached Record Highs in 2018
Source: EIA Natural Gas Monthly and Drilling Productivity Report; denotes average daily dry production
6
6
13 Bcfd of Interstate Pipeline Capacity Added in 2018
Source: Office of Energy Projects
1.8 Bcfd302 mi.
6.6 Bcfd109 mi.
0 Bcfd0 mi.
4.7 Bcfd270 mi.
Total 2018 Gas Pipeline Infrastructure AdditionsCapacity: 13.1 BcfdMiles: 689 mi.
7
7
Power Burn Drove Natural Gas Demand Increase
Source: EIA, Bentek Energy; bars denote average daily demand by sector
8
8
U.S. Position As Net Exporter of Natural Gas Grew in 2018
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration; denotes average daily imports and exports
9
9
Reported Index Volumes Nearly Doubled
Source: S&P Global Platts
10
10
Natural Gas Pipeline Outages Had Electric Market Impacts
Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite
Westcoast BC
Outage
Sumas Border
Hub
Northwest
Pipeline
GTN
RubyPG&E
Westcoast BC
Paiute
PG&E TransWestern
El Paso
Kern River
SoCal System
SoCal
Outages
Aliso Canyon Restriction
Los Angeles
San Diego
11
11
Day-Ahead Power Prices Generally Increased
Average Annual
DA On-Peak
Prices
Nodal Prices: $/MWh
(2018)
<=2
5
>=5
5Hub Prices:
$: $/MWh (2018)
%: Percent
change since ‘17
Source: Nodal prices from ABB Velocity Suite. ISO hub prices from SNL’s ISO Day-Ahead On Peak Prices data. Mid-Columbia, Palo Verde, and Into Southern prices from SNL’s S&P Global Market Intelligence Day-Ahead – Annual On Peak Prices data.
12
12
Capacity Market Prices Held Steady
Source: ISO/RTO webpages
13
13
Most Generation Capacity Additions Were Natural Gas & Solar
Source: EIA- Form 860M. Data do not cover additions or retirements in Alaska or Hawaii.
14
14
Electricity Demand Remained Steady
Source: EIA Forms 826 & 861
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Gig
awat
tho
urs
Electric Consumption by Sector
Residential Commercial Industrial
15
15
The Western Energy Imbalance Market Continued to Evolve
Source: Derived from ABB Velocity Suite.
16
16
Northwest Led Daily and Hourly Transactions in Bilateral Markets
Source: Derived from Electric Quarterly Reports (EQR)
17
17
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
Summer 2019 Reliability and
Energy Market Assessment
Highlights• Higher than average temperatures are expected in the West, South and East.
• Reserve margins are expected to be adequate in all regions except ERCOT.
• Aliso Canyon natural gas storage inventories remain an item of interest for electric reliability within the Western Interconnection.
• Natural gas futures price movements are mixed when compared to 2018 summer levels.
• Battery storage and wind and solar capacity will exceed previous summer levels.
• New LNG export capacity will drive natural gas demand growth.
• High natural gas injections are predicted to return storage to average levels.
• High hydroelectric power production is expected in California but below-average levels are expected in the Pacific Northwest.
19
19
Summer Temperatures Expected to be Above Normal
Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
20
20
Modest Growth of Forecast Generation Capacity
Source: North American Electric Reliability Corporation
21
21
Reserve Margins Adequate in All Regions Except ERCOT
Source: North American Electric Reliability Corporation
22
22
Source: InterContinental ExchangeNote: Summer futures prices are the average July and August futures contract hub price added to the Henry Hub for April 1, 2019.
2019 Summer
Natural Gas
Futures Prices
>=5.88<=1.11
$/MMBtu
(Percent
change from
2018 settled
futures)
Summer 2019 Natural Gas Futures Price Changes Mixed
23
23
LNG In-Services Drive Demand Growth
Source: S&P Global, Inc. forecasts as of March 20, 2019
24
24
Natural Gas Storage to Return to Average Levels
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
25
25
Natural Gas Has the Highest Share of Generation Capacity
0%20%40%60%80%
100%
Capacity MixCoal
Hydro
NaturalGasNuclearOil
Other
3561 101 171 41 81 386 Total GW200
26
26
Power Burn Expected to Increase
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
27
27
Narrow Coal-Natural Gas Spread Promotes Diverse Generation
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, S&P Global Market Intelligence, CME Group
Sept2019
28
28
Strong Hydro Expected in California but Moderate in Other Western States
Source: Natural Resources Conservation Service, US Department of Agriculture
Mid-C
Grand Coulee Dam
29
29
Import Restrictions to Affect Pacific Northwest
Source: ABB Velocity Suite
30
30
Battery Storage Capacity Continuing to Grow through the Summer
Source: US Energy Information Administration Form 860M
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019(throughAugust)
MW
Current and Planned Battery Storage by Year
31
31
Wind & Solar Capacity Continue Increasing
Source: US Energy Information Administration Form 860M
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019(throughAugust)
MW
Cumulative Net Capacity of Wind and Solar Photovolatic
Solar Photovoltaic Wind
32
32
National Slides
33
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
NOAA June 2019 Through August 2019 Outlook
34
34
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
2181
Pittsburgh
Boston
Calgary
City Location
Chicago
NYC
OklahomaCity
DallasLos
Angeles
Sacramento
Denver
Portland
Houston New
OrleansMiami
Vancouver
2019
2018
2012 - 2017
Cumulative HDDs by CityApril 2019
Source: Bloomberg Weather (daily data summed)
Atlanta
Updated
423
589513
0
00
278
472362
325
571400
86
202122
22
3419
440
711509
133
339179
69
13164
38
4317
383
523406
441
516500
238
267249
870
343348
570
196146
84
10690
Apr-2019
35
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
2181
Pittsburgh
Boston
Calgary
City Location
Chicago
NYC
OklahomaCity
DallasLos
Angeles
Sacramento
Denver
Portland
Houston New
Orleans Miami
Vancouver
2019
2018
2012 - 2017
Cumulative CDDs by CityApril 2019
Source: Bloomberg Weather (daily data summed)
Atlanta
Updated
5
04
9
612
389
363390
6
129
91
1152
172
93181
5
04
40
2338
110
67126
190
110187
0
00
1
10
0
00
0
96
0
1021
12
1724
Apr-2019
36
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
2181
ColumbiaTCO
AlgonquinCitygate
AECO
Pricing Point
BOLD – This Year
Green – % increase from
previous year
Red – % decrease from
previous year
ChicagoCitygate
TranscoZ6-NY
NGPLMidcon
El PasoPermian
SoCal
Border
PG&ECitygate
CIG
HSCHenry
Hub
FGT-Z3
Spot Natural Gas Prices Average ($/MMBtu)April 2019
Source: Platts Updated
$2.59
-49%$2.37
-15%
$2.56
-6%
$2.35
-5%
$2.59
-6%
$2.45
-11%
$1.88
-15%$0.22
-87%
$2.55
-10%
$0.83
-37%
$1.78
-8%
$3.20
19%
$1.72
-18%
NW Stanfield
$1.97
1%
Apr-2019
37
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
$ = Average 2019 Spot Price*% Decrease/Increase from 2018*Average Monthly On-Peak Day-Ahead
from January to AprilSPP Price is an average of the North and South Hubs Source: S&P Global Intelligence and ISO/RTO Data
NP 15
Palo Verde
Mid-Columbia Indiana
Hub
SPP
ERCOTNorth
PJM WestNYISO ZJ
Mass Hub
Into Southern
2019 Spot Power Prices ($/MWh)
$46.34
122%
$45.94
46%
$38.17
46%
$33.03
-9%
$28.32
8%
$28.23
-10%
$30.53
0%
$42.93
-31%
$42.24
-25%
$32.72
-28%
38
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
U.S. NG Supply and Demand
November 2017 – March 2018 vs November 2018 – March 2019
National Natural Gas Market Overview: U.S. Supply and Consumption
Note: Balance includes all amounts not attributable to other categories.
Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data2163
39
Updated
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2017/2018 2018/2019
Average D
aily S
upply
(B
cfd
)
US Natural Gas Supply
LNG Imports
Canadian Imports
Net Dry GasProduction
-26.3%
-16.5%
10.8%
Total Change in Supply: 8.9%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2017/2018 2018/2019
Av
era
ge
Da
ily
Vo
lum
e (
Bcfd
)
US Natural Gas Demand
Power Generation
Total Change in Demand:
Industrial
4.3%
Residential/ Commercial
7.0%
1.1%
4.6%
Mexican Exports
LNG Exports 49.1%
11.7%
Apr-2019
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
National Natural Gas Market Overview: Canadian Imports
Regional Imports from Canada
Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data
40
Updated
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Jan
-11
May
-11
Sep
-11
Jan
-12
May
-12
Sep
-12
Jan
-13
May
-13
Sep
-13
Jan
-14
May
-14
Sep
-14
Jan
-15
May
-15
Sep
-15
Jan
-16
May
-16
Sep
-16
Jan
-17
May
-17
Sep
-17
Jan
-18
May
-18
Sep
-18
Jan
-19
Bcf
d
Northwest Net ImportsMidwest Net ImportsNortheast Net Imports
Apr-2019
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
Total U.S. Natural Gas Demand All Sectors
National Natural Gas Market Overview: Total US Gas Demand
Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data, derived from interstate pipeline flow and modeled data.20009
41
Updated
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Bcf
d
2014-18 Range 2019
Apr-2019
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
U.S. Natural Gas Consumption for Power Generation
National Natural Gas Market Overview: NG Consumption for Power Generation
Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data20024
42
Updated
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Bcf
d
2014 - 2018 Range
2019
Apr-2019
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
EIA National Storage Inventories
National Natural Gas Market Overview: Natural Gas Storage Inventory
Source: Derived from Bloomberg Data
Notes:
Updated
43
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Sto
rage
(B
cf)
5 Year Range 2019-2020 2018-2019
Apr-2019
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
EIA Regional Storage Inventories
National Natural Gas Market Overview: Natural Gas Storage Inventory
Source: Derived from Bloomberg Data
Notes:
Updated
44
0100200300400500600700800900
1,000
EAST 0
500
1,000
1,500
WEST
0
100
200
300
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
5 Year Range 2019-2020 2018-2019
PRODUCING
0100200300400500
PACIFIC0
500
1,000
1,500
SOUTH CENTRAL
Apr-2019
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
Monthly U.S. Dry Gas Production – Lower 48 States
National Natural Gas Market Overview: Monthly U.S. Dry Gas Production
Note: Prior to July 2010, chart was derived from a combination of EIA and Bentek Energy data
Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data20021
45
Updated
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Bcf
d
Dry Production
Apr-2019
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
Rigs by Type
National Natural Gas Market Overview: Rig Count by Type
Source: Derived from Bloomberg data
Notes:
Updated
46
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000M
ay-1
7
Au
g-1
7
No
v-1
7
Feb
-18
May
-18
Au
g-1
8
No
v-1
8
Feb
-19
May
-19
Bak
er H
ugh
es R
ig C
ou
nt
(Rig
s)
Oil Rigs Gas Rigs
Apr-2019
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
Competing Fuels
National Natural Gas Market Overview: Competing Fuels
Source: Derived from Bloomberg data
Notes:
Updated
47
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
Fuel
Pri
ce (
$/M
MB
tu)
Nymex Henry HubBig Sandy Barge (Low Sulfur Coal)WTI Crude Oil
Apr-2019
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
Daily Gas Sendout from Existing U.S. LNG Facilities
National Natural Gas Market Overview: LNG Market-Daily Gas Sendout
Notes: Everett data includes flows onto the AGT and TGP interstate lines, plus estimates of flows to the Mystic 7 power plant, Keyspan Boston
Gas, and LNG trucked out of the terminal. Excludes flows to the Freeport LNG which flows via intrastate pipelines and flows to the Mystic 8 and
9 power plants.
Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data3007
48
Updated
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Dai
ly L
NG
Sen
do
ut
(MM
cfd
)
Sabine PassLake CharlesGolden PassFreeportNortheast GatewayExcelerateCameronElba IslandCove PointEverett (Modeled)Neptune
0
1,000
2,000
3,000 Monthly Average
Apr-2019
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
U.S Exports of LNG
National Natural Gas Market Overview: LNG Market-Daily Exports
Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data3007
49
Updated
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Jan
-16
Mar
-16
May
-16
Jul-
16
Sep
-16
No
v-1
6
Jan
-17
Mar
-17
May
-17
Jul-
17
Sep
-17
No
v-1
7
Jan
-18
Mar
-18
May
-18
Jul-
18
Sep
-18
No
v-1
8
Jan
-19
Mar
-19
Bcf
dSabine Pass Cove Point Corpus Christi
Apr-2019
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
Source: Waterborne Energy, Inc. Data in $US/MMBtu
Note: Includes information and Data supplied by IHS Global Inc. and its affiliates (“IHS”); Copyright (publication year) all rights reserved.
Landed prices are the monthly average of weekly trades from the prior month.
World LNG Estimated Landed Prices:
National Natural Gas Market Overview: World LNG Landed Prices
Cove Point
$4.50
India
$11.55
UK
$8.75
Spain
$9.05
Belgium
$8.84
Japan
$12.40
Korea
$12.40Lake Charles
$3.96Altamira
$4.60
Cove Point
$4.40
India
$11.55
UK
$8.75
Spain
$9.15
Belgium
$8.99
Japan
$13.10
Korea
$13.10
Lake Charles
$3.93Altamira
$4.57
Cove Point
$4.50
India
$11.55
UK
$8.75
Spain
$9.05
Belgium
$8.84
Japan
$12.40
Korea
$12.40Lake Charles
$3.96Altamira
$4.60
Cove Point
India
UK
Spain
Belgium
Korea
Lake Charles
Altamira
Bahia Blanca
Canaport
China
50
Updated
5.03$
4.99$ 5.00$
4.99$
4.88$
4.61$
2.60$ 2.70$
2.48$
4.75$
5.03$
Apr-19
Apr-2019
50
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
Historical and World Gas Futures Prices
National Natural Gas Market Overview: LNG Competitive Price Hubs
Source: Derived from Bloomberg data
Notes:
Updated
51
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
$18
$20M
ay-1
7
Jul-
17
Sep
-17
No
v-1
7
Jan
-18
Mar
-18
May
-18
Jul-
18
Sep
-18
No
v-1
8
Jan
-19
Mar
-19
May
-19
Jul-
19
Sep
-19
No
v-1
9
Jan
-20
Mar
-20
May
-20
$/M
MB
tu
Henry Hub TZ6 NY
Algonquin Citygates UKNBP
Japanese LNG Spot Price Futures Prices
Apr-2019
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
National Natural Gas Market Overview: WTI vs Brent Oil Price
Source: Derived from Bloomberg data Updated
WTI vs Brent Crude Oil Price
52
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100O
il P
rice
s ($
/Bar
rel)
WTI Oil Price Brent Crude Oil Price
Apr-2019
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
National Natural Gas Market Overview: Nymex Futures Curve
Source: Derived from Bloomberg data Updated
Nymex Futures Curves
53
$2.45
$2.55
$2.65
$2.75
$2.85
$2.95
$3.05
$3.15
$3.25
$3.35
Jun-19 Dec-19 Jun-20 Dec-20
Nym
ex F
utu
res
Cu
rves
($
/MM
Btu
)
5/7/2018 4-9-2019 12-7-2018 5-7-2019
Apr-2019
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
Infrastructure Report
Office of Energy Projects Energy
Infrastructure Update
http://www.ferc.gov/legal/staff-reports.asp
(see “Energy Infrastructure” tab)
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
Natural Gas Highlights
55
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
Electric Generation Highlights56
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
Electric Transmission Highlights57
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
Installed Generating Capacity and Proposed Additions
58