Office of Coast Survey NOS Coastal and Surge Modeling 2011 NCEP Production Suite Review Jesse C. Feyen Coast Survey Development Laboratory

Office of Coast Survey

NOS Coastal and Surge ModelingNOS Coastal and Surge Modeling2011 NCEP Production Suite Review2011 NCEP Production Suite Review

Jesse C. FeyenCoast Survey Development Laboratory


NOAA Surge Model Development Efforts• Moving toward total water level modeling

– NOS & NWS adding tides to SLOSH– Implementing extratropical surge+tide system ESTOFS– Coupling surge (ADCIRC) and wave (WAVEWATCH

III®) models in the Nearshore Wave Prediction System

• Accelerating transition of research to operations– IOOS testbed for evaluating costs and benefits of

transitioning community models to operations– Investigating ensemble approaches to use multiple

surge models


Atlantic Extratropical Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System (ESTOFS)• Purpose

– Provide coastal water levels for coupling to WAVEWATCH III® (WW3) to drive Nearshore Wave Prediction System

– Compute surge with tides, astronomical tides, and subtidal water levels (surge only) for forecaster use

• Provides improvements in surge predictions– Incorporates the astronomical tides, lacking in ETSS

• Enables future development– River inflows

– Improved resolution of bays, inlets, and barrier islands


ESTOFS-Atlantic

• Applies ADCIRC model• East Coast 2001 tidal

database grid (EC2001)• 254,565 nodes• Coastal resolution ≈ 3

km• Tidal forcing at 60o W

– TPXO 6.2


Operational Set-up

• Mirrors WW3 set-up to support coupling• Surface forcing from GFS

– 10 m winds and sea level pressure every 3 hours

• Run cycle: 4 times per day alongside GFS & WW3– 00z, 06z, 12z, and 18z– 6-hr nowcast followed by 180-hr forecast

• Running experimentally in real-time now; fully operational April 2012


ESTOFS Output• Deliver three types of water level

– Combined Water Level (CWL): Surge + tides

– Harmonic Tidal Prediction (HTP): Astronomical tides

– Subtidal Water Level (SWL): SWL = CWL – HTP

• Provide both field and point output– 6 minute water level at points, hourly water level for fields

• Output native grid (NetCDF) & 2.5 km NDFD (GRIB2)• http://nomad1.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/raid2/estofs/

2009 Veteran’s Day Nor’Ida2009 Veteran’s Day Nor’Ida


Water Level as Fields

EC2001 grid (NetCDF) NDFD CONUS grid (GRIB2)


Water Level as Fields

EC2001 grid (NetCDF) NDFD CONUS grid (GRIB2)


Hindcast Skill AssessmentCombined Water Level from 2009 Hindcast

East Coast Gulf of Mexico


ESTOFS Performance in Hurricane Irene• August 20 – August

29, 2011• Made landfall over

NC’s Outer Banks on the morning of August 27

• Made second landfall near Little Egg Inlet in NJ the morning of August 28

8/27/2011 8:00

8/28/2011 5:00

NHC Official Track


Hurricane Irene Storm Surge

• Storm Surge– Along the North Carolina coast, surge values ranged from 0.3 m

at Wilmington to about 1.0 m above predicted tide levels at Duck– Stations near the entrance to Chesapeake Bay recorded storm

surge values between 1.2 and 1.5 m above predicted tide levels– Stations from New York City to Woods Hole, MA, had maximum

storm surge between 1 and 1.6 m above tide levels

• Hydrographs and average abs water level errors– CO-OPS observation and ESTOFS Water Levels for the first

daily forecast cycle for 2011082500 through 2011082800


CO-OPS Gauge Locations

CO-OPS Gauges

US Boundaries

ESTOFS Boundary


GFS Forecast Track


Hydrograph


Average abs WL Error


Hydrograph




Hydrograph




U.S. IOOS Coastal Modeling TestbedCoastal Inundation

Rick Leuttich, UNC-CH

• $4M - IOOS Program FFO (Programmatic Language)

• 5 teams, 64 scientists/analysts

• SURA is overall lead for execution

• One year project (May 2010-11) with no-cost extension to Dec 2011

• Multi-sector engagement (federal agency, academia, industry)

• Goals:

Gulf & Atlantic Coast

Shelf Hypoxia

John Harding, USM

Gulf of Mexico

Estuarine Hypoxia

Carl Friedrichs, VIMS

Chesapeake Bay

Cyber Infrastructure

Eoin Howlett, ASA

Testbed Advisory

Rich Signell, USGS

Evaluation Group

o Less about models than process

o Focus is on stable infrastructure (testing environment, tools, standard obs) and transition to operations

o Enable Modeling and Analysis subsystem


1. Develop skill metrics and assess models in three different regions and dynamical regimes

2. Build a common infrastructure for access, analysis and visualization of all ocean model data produced by the National Backbone and the IOOS Regions.

3. Transition models, tools, toolkits and other capabilities to federal operational facilities

4. Build stronger relationships between academia and operational centers through collaboration

Original Testbed Goals


• Development of common Testbed infrastructure

• Data Archiving • Model

development/ enhancement

• HPC Time• Skill Analysis

Surge, Waves and Inundation Team Results

Gulf of Maine / Scituate Harbor - Extratropical Domain


• Improving Collaboration

• Improving Data

• Model Development

• Supporting Operations

Shelf Hypoxia Team Results

NOAA CSDL planned coastal physical model implementations (nGOM shelf domain above currently planned for 2nd Qtr FY 12 initial NGOFS coastal ocean forecast operational capability)


• Transitioning information to federal agencies

• Model Comparison

• Conducting sensitivity experiments

• New, single term hypoxia model

Estuarine Hypoxia Results

CH3DCerco & Wang

USACE

ChesROMSLong & Hood

UMCES

UMCES-ROMSLi & LiUMCES

CBOFS (ROMS)Lanerolle & Xu

NOAA

EFDCShenVIMS

Five Hydrodynamic Models Configured for the Chesapeake Bay


• Interactive Web Site: browse model results, view model grid data, side by side comparisons, and MUCH MORE

• Unstructured Grid Support: Time series extraction completed for FVCOM, SELFE, ELCIRC, ADCIRC.

• Matlab Toolbox: standardized data transformations, new methods for comparing data (including unit conversion). Coordination with OOI-CI

• Matlab as a Web Service: Matlab processes - no desktop license required.

• Skill Assessment Tools: Measure the degree of correlation between model prediction and observations

• Collaborative Web Site: public/private access to portal, content organization with internal/external tools.

Cyber Infrastructure Team Results


Looking Ahead• Teams are finalizing products for consideration or

transferring models, tools and toolkits to federal operational centers

• Cyber infrastructure team will continue developing tools to advance data repository and search features as well as comparison tools for data and models

• Management team is building framework for sustainability to include:– Defining and gathering broad agreement for structure and

CONOPS of long term Testbed– Ensuring funding support for future Testbed study


NOS Operational Forecast System locations – April 2011



Documents

Office of Coast Survey NOS Coastal and Surge Modeling 2011 NCEP Production Suite Review Jesse C. Feyen Coast Survey Development Laboratory