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Office of Research and DevelopmentNational Exposure Research Laboratory
CMAS Special Session on Human Health October 13, 2010
Combining Models and Observations Combining Models and Observations of Air Quality for Human Health of Air Quality for Human Health
Studies Studies
2 Office of Research and DevelopmentNational Exposure Research Laboratory
Health data analysis
Tiers of Exposure Metrics
Personal Behavior/Time Activity Microenvironmental Characteristics
Ambient Monitoring Data
Land-Use RegressionModeling
Air Quality Modeling(CMAQ, AERMOD, hybrid)
Exposure Modeling(SHEDS, APEX)
Statistical modeling(Data blending)
Monitoring Data
Monitoring Data
Monitoring Data
Emissions Data
Emissions Data
Emissions Data
Meteorological Data
Meteorological Data
Land-Use/Topography
Land-Use/Topography
Land-Use/Topography
Monitoring DataEmissions Data
Meteorological DataLand-Use/Topography
Input data
Epidemiological statistical models: log(E(Ykt)) = α + β exposure metrickt + kγkakt+ …other covariates
Hypothesis
•High spatio-temporal resolution in air quality/exposure data will better reveal the relationships between ambient air quality and health outcomes
Exposure Metrics Used in Health Studies
3 Office of Research and DevelopmentNational Exposure Research Laboratory
Health data analysis
Tiers of Exposure Metrics
Personal Behavior/Time Activity Microenvironmental Characteristics
Ambient Monitoring Data
Land-Use RegressionModeling
Air Quality Modeling(CMAQ, AERMOD, hybrid)
Exposure Modeling(SHEDS, APEX)
Statistical modeling(Data blending)
Monitoring Data
Monitoring Data
Monitoring Data
Emissions Data
Emissions Data
Emissions Data
Meteorological Data
Meteorological Data
Land-Use/Topography
Land-Use/Topography
Land-Use/Topography
Monitoring DataEmissions Data
Meteorological DataLand-Use/Topography
Input data
Epidemiological statistical models: log(E(Ykt)) = α + β exposure metrickt + kγkakt+ …other covariates
Hypothesis
•High spatio-temporal resolution in air quality/exposure data will better reveal the relationships between ambient air quality and health outcomes
Exposure Metrics Used in Health Studies
4 Office of Research and DevelopmentNational Exposure Research Laboratory
Land Use Regression (LUR): One Approach That Combines
Observations with a Model
5 Office of Research and DevelopmentNational Exposure Research Laboratory
Land Use Regression (LUR)
6 Office of Research and DevelopmentNational Exposure Research Laboratory
Source: Jerrett et al., JEAEE (2005).
Land Use Regression (LUR)
7 Office of Research and DevelopmentNational Exposure Research Laboratory
Example of Land Use Regression (LUR)
8 Office of Research and DevelopmentNational Exposure Research Laboratory
Health data analysis
Tiers of Exposure Metrics
Personal Behavior/Time Activity Microenvironmental Characteristics
Ambient Monitoring Data
Land-Use RegressionModeling
Air Quality Modeling(CMAQ, AERMOD, hybrid)
Exposure Modeling(SHEDS, APEX)
Statistical modeling(Data blending)
Monitoring Data
Monitoring Data
Monitoring Data
Emissions Data
Emissions Data
Emissions Data
Meteorological Data
Meteorological Data
Land-Use/Topography
Land-Use/Topography
Land-Use/Topography
Monitoring DataEmissions Data
Meteorological DataLand-Use/Topography
Input data
Epidemiological statistical models: log(E(Ykt)) = α + β exposure metrickt + kγkakt+ …other covariates
Hypothesis
•High spatio-temporal resolution in air quality/exposure data will better reveal the relationships between ambient air quality and health outcomes
Exposure Metrics Used in Health Studies
9 Office of Research and DevelopmentNational Exposure Research Laboratory
Source: Kang et al., GMD (2010).
Use of a Bias-Adjustment Method of Combining Observations and Model
Results
10 Office of Research and DevelopmentNational Exposure Research Laboratory
Use of a Bayesian Technique to Combine Observations and Model
Results
(See also Fuentes, AQAH, 2009)
11 Office of Research and DevelopmentNational Exposure Research Laboratory
•NERL is developing AQ surfaces from AQS data and CMAQ results using HB model1
– Daily PM2.5 and 8-hr Ozone– 36km CONUS and 12km eastern half US– 2001 to 2006 done; subsequent years underway
•CDC’s Tracking program is using HBM to develop AQ indicators– Currently available on the Tracking Network
• http://ephtracking.cdc.gov/– Made available to states and other CDC programs
•MATCH program / county health rankings http://www.countyhealthrankings.org/
•CDC and its partners are also using HBM predictions for health associations and impact assessments
1 McMillan, N., Holland, D. M., Morara, M., and Feng, J. (2010). Environmetrics 21, 48-65; http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/fulltext/122546906/PDFSTART.
Hierarchical Bayesian Model Approach used in an EPA-CDC
Collaboration
Courtesy of Ambarish Vaidyanathan (CDC) and Fred Dimmick (EPA)
12 Office of Research and DevelopmentNational Exposure Research Laboratory
Health data analysis
Tiers of Exposure Metrics
Personal Behavior/Time Activity Microenvironmental Characteristics
Ambient Monitoring Data
Land-Use RegressionModeling
Air Quality Modeling(CMAQ, AERMOD, hybrid)
Exposure Modeling(SHEDS, APEX)
Statistical modeling(Data blending)
Monitoring Data
Monitoring Data
Monitoring Data
Emissions Data
Emissions Data
Emissions Data
Meteorological Data
Meteorological Data
Land-Use/Topography
Land-Use/Topography
Land-Use/Topography
Monitoring DataEmissions Data
Meteorological DataLand-Use/Topography
Input data
Epidemiological statistical models: log(E(Ykt)) = α + β exposure metrickt + kγkakt+ …other covariates
Hypothesis
•High spatio-temporal resolution in air quality/exposure data will better reveal the relationships between ambient air quality and health outcomes
Exposure Metrics Used in Health Studies
